Paully's Picks - 2012 Grand Final

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v The Melbourne Storm 

And so it comes to this. 1v2 on the ladder. Combined, these clubs have won 13 out of their last 14 matches. They've been the two best teams all year and they own the two best defensive records on the season. They are coached by the two most successful league mentors of the modern era. The Melbourne Storm and the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs are your 2012 NRL Grand Finalists on Sunday afternoon at Homebush and what a beauty it promises to be.    

Contrasting styles. It's been the hot topic all week and credit must go to Canterbury coach Des Hasler for using the skill of his forwards to such potential. Hasler has drilled his big men to play a style that opposes the grind and makes it difficult to wrestle. The Dogs don't send a solitary sacrificial settler at you, they send a line of ball players and hole runners and not just when they're in attacking position; but even when coming out of their own end. They've dominated opposition packs all year and scored plenty of tries from distance.

Melbourne's attack is just as lethal. They don't simply grind out points as they have done in the past via their discipline and defence. Cooper Cronk and Cam Smith can beat you with a game plan and are smart enough to play what they see on the field. Got a weakness? They'll find it either on video or in an instant, during the game. With a glut of possession, they destroyed the reigning premiers last week and the Rabbitohs a fortnight before. They are on a 7 match winning streak and average over 31 points in attack over that stretch. They are the favourites. 

For the Bulldogs to win, they must overcome the experience of Smith, Cronk and Slater, who have proven themselves at the highest level. Canterbury does have an advantage in the forwards, but will need Josh Reynolds, Kris Keating and Ben Barba to handle the biggest occasion of their footballing lives. Cronk, especially, is the Bulldogs' biggest obstacle. You can bet his kicking game will leave Barba out of the flow of this match as much as possible. You can bet his defence will be first class and you can bet that he'll be playing with a very large chip on his shoulder. 

This motivation will be the Storm’s advantage. Since being forced to play 20 rounds of NRL football for no reward and no purpose in 2010, Melbourne’s emotional leaders have been waiting for a shot at redemption. This kind of incentive can drive the likes of Cronk to new levels of performance. It has. He is the Australian halfback, winner of the 2012 Warren Ryan medal, kicked that heartbreaking field goal in the Origin decider - and now sets his sights on an NRL Premiership.  

Both teams will be prepared to perfection. They will be primed for kick off. They won't be shy out of the gates and this Grand Final will start at a furious pace with ferocious physicality - and then be decided in the dying moments where the experience of Melbourne’s spine makes the difference.  

My tip: Melbourne 19-18
Clive Churchil Medallist tip: Cooper Cronk

Paully's Picks - Prelim Finals

Melbourne Storm v Manly Sea Eagles

The most heated rivalry of the last decade and what a story it has been. Not only have the regular season meetings been fierce and sometimes violent; but Melbourne and Manly have met a number of times in the finals and each meeting seemed to make them hate each other even more. They bring this perfectly evolved animosity to your first Preliminary Final on Friday night and both clubs are in familiar territory. Won't be hesitant. Won't shy away from the occasion. They've been here before.

This time last year, the Storm were beaten by the Warriors and at the time, it seemed like their blueprint for winning had been completely destroyed. Their attack was starved of possession, their defence out- smarted and their pants pulled down. Manly, by contrast, were playing the role of bully against a Broncos team without Darren Lockyer and here they are 12 months later, one win away from the GF. Another big game for two powerhouse clubs.

And what a game it will be. A furious opening 20 minutes will have you begging for more and when the forwards settle down and the brains of each operation takes over, it will be Cooper Cronk who leads the way. Cronk was the Leagueunlimited player of the year and on the back of an amazing season, he proves the difference again here. But the Australian halfback won't be alone in delivering the spectacular.

The home side have been waiting for this moment for a long, long time and Craig Bellamy will have them pulsating with rage and high on angry pills. The mighty Eagles will have their premiership winning forward pack at the ready and with the return of Steve Matai, could break a record for players on report in the opening exchanges. In the end, Melbourne are a better team than 12 months ago and they prove it in front of an adoring home crowd.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Through all the changes our code has been through, Sydney rivalries are still the most beloved by NRL fans. These two famous clubs have met on 144 occasions and their two meetings this year have been as good as any of them. Round 6; where Greg Inglis denied the 'Dogs attack by repeatedly bringing the ball out of his own in goal when he had no right to do so. Then, round 13; when Ben Barba saved the game for his team with a try saver in the dying moments.

The stakes are just a little higher this time. At kick-off their will be the roar of 70 odd thousand heaving souls and 34 footy players who won't give a flying frisbee about the past, only the next 80 minutes of a desperate future. Souths have come so far this season; it’s not hard to see a bright future for a once struggling club, no matter what the result this weekend. It has been an impressive turnaround led by GI, a few Souths juniors and a monstrous forward pack.

The Bulldogs have had a similar turnaround. A season of turmoil in 2011 and now, a Minor Premiership. They have a great balance of youth and experience, a great balance of style and substance, a great balance of mongrel and control and finally, a coach that knows exactly how to fill the trophy cabinet. The Bulldogs have been the best team for most of 2012 and perhaps, that is their only weak point.

To take advantage of any over confidence in the Dogs, the Rabbitohs will be looking to settle their nerves early and force the favourites on the back foot. Adam Reynolds' kicking game will need to be just a brilliant as last week if they are to do this but he might be spending more time kicking out of his own half. The Bulldogs forward pack will be the difference in this one. Led by Aidan Tolman, they outwork the Bunnies and defend their way to victory.

My tip: Canterbury 18-12

Paully's Picks - Finals Week 2

Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys

Such is the pressure of finals footy. Years of hard work from coaches and players and suddenly – we come to the realisation that one of these very good teams only has 80 minutes left of their season. It becomes about who wants it more. The Manly club have done well to recover from back office grumblings and the loss of Des Hasler just days after celebrating the 2011 premiership. But now, they stand on the brink of devastation as they face the Cowboys at Allianz Stadium in your 1st Semi Final on Friday night.

The Sea Eagles began last week's match against Canterbury as the aggressors and dominated possession in the early going but were only able to score 10 points in the first 40 minutes and went scoreless in the second. Much credit should go to the Bulldogs defence, but the Eagles need to be better with the ball to pose a threat to a potent North Queensland team. The Cowboys have won their past 5 and averaged 35 points in attack over that period. They are the best attacking team, statistically, in the competition and are almost injury free.

Manly will be confident having beaten the Cowboys in their last two meetings. Round 22 at Dairy Farmers this year, where the reigning premiers held their hosts to 6 points in a big win; and Week 1 of the Finals last year, where the Eagles scored 42 unanswered points in the second half to boot the Cowboys out of the comp . This time round, coach Neil Henry, captain Jonathan Thurston and their superstar front rowers finally turn the tables and get the job done and the Eagles are 'two and out'. Pity that only a few thousand people will see it at Allianz - but strap yourselves in for a beauty.

My tip: North Queensland 20-14

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders

Saturday night at Homebush; where the Bunnies have an outstanding record this season and are heavy favourites to beat the upstart kids from our nation’s capital. The Green Machine have won their past 6 matches and are playing with a huge level of belief in themselves and their destiny. How this type of confidence sprang from a team under so much pressure mid-way through season is a mystery. One more reason why Rugby League is the Greatest Game of All.

The Raiders' have a 7-5 away record this year, which should add to their confidence but they have only played at ANZ Stadium once. A 36-18 loss to South Sydney. Speaking of South Sydney, of the 8 teams to play finals footy last week, Souths received the most criticism after their loss to the Storm. Melbourne would have beaten plenty that day but the challenge now is for Coach Michael Maguire to calm them all down and for an inexperienced Bunnies team to bounce back.

He does, they do. Discipline will be the key to Souths moving forward. They showed little against the Storm and if that happens again, the Raiders will capitalise as they did against Cronulla last week. The difference here is Greg Inglis. He won't be fumbling his way through a match as big as this one. GI will finish off what the Rabbitohs forwards start in the opening exchanges - which will shake the very foundations of the entire Olympic precinct. Taylor and Papalii, Shillington and Burgess, both packs will rip in and when the dust settles, a grind will ensue and the Bunnies win their first semi-final since before half of this squad was born.

My tip: South Sydney 19-12

Paully's Picks - 2012 Finals Series Week 1.

Canterbury Bulldogs v Manly Sea Eagles

An epic encounter awaits us all to begin the 2012 Finals Series from ANZ Stadium on Friday night. Minor Premiers, the Bulldogs, host 4th place finishers Manly and whilst under the new playoff structure this game is not sudden death; it will definitely feel like there is no tomorrow for these two clubs. Especially when all the talk about coaches is over and the players decide who wins and who loses, rather than the bloke with the headphones on.

And what a mighty collection of footballers we have here. Two forward packs with almost no weak links and plenty of courage. They play close to the line and do not take a backward step while also showing class and amazing skill with ball in hand. But if the forwards don't peak your interest, keep an eye on the battle between Steve Matai and Krisnan Inu as they resume their memorable confrontation from last year’s decider. A violent beginning to the business end with the 'Dogs sneaking home.

My tip: Canterbury 20-18

 

The Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Storm's 2012 tilt feels like it’s been years in the making. Well, actually, it has. They've been through plenty and been stripped of plenty more. Finally, they come to this time and place to exorcize the demons of salary caps past. The time and place in question is Saturday night at AAMI Park and the opponent standing in their way resembles a familiar family friend. Former Bellamy understudy, Michael Maguire, has led the Bunnies to the Promised Land.

Unfortunately for the 'pride of the league', they get a harsh lesson in semi-final football from the best defensive team in the NRL. Souths have plenty of weapons to turn to but opportunities will not present themselves often enough for the likes of Inglis, Taylor and Burgess to find the space they need. The Storm's grinding style will keep them in the driver’s seat and carry them to a win in front of a raucous home crowd.

My tip: Melbourne 18-8

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

Part 2 of your Saturday night double header and unlike the Friday night double headers that make up the regular season, this one will be live from Dairy Farmers. So sit back, hit the mute button on the one they call 'bolts' Hadley and enjoy an absolute cracker. The round 15 meeting between these Queensland rivals saw the boys from Townsville win 12-0 at a time when the Broncos were on fire, scoring 90 points in their previous 2 games.

Brisbane would only win 3 more games following that match and have been mired in an attacking slump that has seen their halves come under criticism and even been dropped. Going to North Queensland to play sudden death football will not be the remedy they require and it will be Jonathan Thurston who shows them how to control field position and turn it into points. If he doesn't get ya, Matt Bowen will. Cowboys too good.

My tip: North Queensland 24-12

 

Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks are coming off an eventful fortnight, to say the least. They outplayed the Storm in Melbourne only to lose to a miracle try in the last second; then good news midweek with securing their financial future, followed by a complete shellacking from the Cowboys at Toyota Stadium. Then, if that wasn't enough for their long suffering fans; a circus like judiciary hearing in the week before their biggest game of the season!

Under normal circumstances, this would be a monumental mountain to climb, but this week, it's freakin' Everest. Can the Sharks travel to Canberra for sudden death football; on Sunday afternoon as $2.40 underdogs; to face a sold out stadium cheering for the Raiders, who, just for kicks, have won their last five matches? Damn straight. Sharks win on the back of Paul Gallen who has been through enough pain this year to last a while. He refuses to let this season slip away.

My tip: Sharks 25-18


for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php

NATHAN HINDMARSH – A LOOK BACK

Few players can demand the respect of all league fans, across all 16 teams and above all rivalries. If you are a New South Welshman, you had to respect Darren Lockyer above your hatred for Queensland. If you hate Manly... you had to respect Bob Fulton. No matter what colours you wear, when it comes to Nathan Hindmarsh, every league fan has marvelled at his resilience, his passion, his talent and his unbelievable awareness on the football field. Hindmarsh was always there as the first and last line of defence for Club, State and Country.

For Parramatta fans, this Sunday night represents a chance to simply say 'thank you' and cheer for the 330^th time for the one they call Hindy. A twinge of sadness and regret will overcome them as well. Sadness that they will miss him and regret that he didn’t get the praise and reward he deserved.

Mum used to say, "If wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets in the sea", but I can’t help but wish he had a premiership and I can’t help but wish the NSW origin selectors did the right thing by him. Hindmarsh could have and probably should have held every NSW record for appearances as player and possibly Captain by now. Alas, the revolving door selection policy that existed between 2006 and 2010 may have robbed Hindy of his place in Origin folklore.

Still, we won't remember this as much as we will remember a magnificent career filled with all the highs and lows that Rugby League brings. Lifelong Parra fan @ritcho33 helps us take a look back:

- The Hindy that no one remembers – 2001. He scored a number of tries that covered bursts of over 50 metres. Two such memorable efforts were the 80 metre “sprint” vs. the 'Dogs in an epic battle at the Showground (this round 23 fixture was sold out mid-week!) and the 60 metre classic vs. the Dragons where he shrugged off the great Amos Roberts and out raced Trent Barrett and Mary McGregor to the try line.

- The Hindy that Brian Smith created – 2004-5. After vowing to add more size to the pack and recruiting the likes of Paul Stringer and Corey Pearson, the Eels forwards became less mobile. This meant Hindy was making 55 tackles a game to cover for the rest of the pack. He went from being a ball running second rower to a workhorse the likes of which the NRL had never seen. For good or bad - Brian Smith ended Hindy 1.0.

- The Hindy that wasn’t there – 2005. Eels were playing Brisbane in a 'winner takes the minor premiership' Friday night blockbuster at Parra Stadium. Early on in the game Hindy stumbles to take a John Morris hospital pass. He gets hit awkwardly. His knee buckles. He gets carried off. His season over. Parramatta win the game and minor premiership. They lose the war. Daniel Wagon takes Hindy’s spot and after beating 8th place Manly - disaster in the preliminary final against the Cowboys. Eels lose 29-0.

- The Hindy that had his eyes on the prize – 2009. Sydney’s Grand Final. The famous Eels v Dogs prelim at ANZ Stadium. 75,000 people. Hindmarsh tackles Michael Ennis to save a line-break and almost certain 4-pointer in the second half. Then, with 15 seconds left on the clock and the 'Dogs forced into a goal line dropout, the game was over. Eels players and fans were celebrating. Hindy stands still, hands on hips, blank expression. The job was not done. Of all the players’ reactions that night, this stands out from the rest.

- The Hindy that ends with wood – 2012… A career spanning 14 years with one club. A career that saw him represent his region, state and country. A career ends not with a ring, but with a spoon made from wood.

Whatever fairy-tale ending you wish for Nathan Hindmarsh, he probably deserves them all. This Sunday night at ANZ Stadium, we won’t have to wish for anything. Hindmarsh will get the standing ovation he deserves from the thousands in attendance and we’ll all know how amazing a footballer he is; and was. 

Paully's Picks - Round 26

Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers

The spearhead of Queensland’s recent origin success and a shining example to all footballers of this era, Petero Civoniceva farewells his home fans on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium against Penrith. Considering the Broncos form of late, this match feels like a farewell to the season for both these clubs. No team has lost 6 straight going into the finals and won a comp - I've done no research to back that up, it just feels right.

The Panthers, having farewelled their fans in style last week, hop on a plane to Brisbane as $4.50 outsiders and nobody is giving them a chance. Credit to Ivan Cleary for instilling a bit of pride in his team and also creating a fair bit of cap space in the process. The future looks bright. Cannot say the same about the Broncos who are ending their season on a disastrous stretch but before Mad Monday’s inevitable call, they defend well enough here to win.

My tip: Brisbane 20-6

 

Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs

It’s Knights Old Boys' Day at Hunter Stadium on Friday night as Newcastle host the Bunnies in what will be the end of the home side's 2012 tilt. Whether their year is classified as a success or failure by the talking heads of rugby league TV (most of whom are all Newcastle born), nobody else cares cos they aint playing finals footy and the Rabbitohs most definitely are. Souths travel up the F3 with their confidence back intact.

They'll need it, too. The Knights will play with pride and a commitment that had them only a whisker away from beating the Cowboys in Townsville last week - goal kicking and penalties the difference in that one. This week, they play with a similar resolve and cause enough problems for the visitors to keep things very close but tough to tip against the Bunnies with that forward pack healthy and that bloke in the number 1 jersey.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16

 

Gold Coast Titans v Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday afternoon, 5.30pm on the Gold Coast at the very beginning of spring? The Titans faithful may not be out in force for this one, especially after the home side dropped their bundle last week and blew their shot. Add to that a visit from the reigning premiers / current premiership favourites / form team of the competition and you have the Gold Coast with a 7.5 start and about 6,000 people in the grand stand.

Pity, the Eagles are fun to watch. They play a lightning fast brand of football which, incidentally, is the complete opposite to their opponents in this match. Back rowers Watmough, Williams and Stewart attacking the edges whilst Bird, Minichiello and Ridge plug away with no real explosiveness. This will be the difference. If Manly are up for this match after winning 5 in a row and smelling the chance of a home semi, they could do some damage.

My tip: Manly 30-14

 

Canterbury Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters

The ‘Dogs return to Homebush to play for the Minor Premiership. It is special moments like this one where we really miss David Gallop and all he did for the NRL. Who else would be willing to put the JJ Giltinan Shield in the passenger seat of his BMW while he waits patiently, ready to deliver the trophy to either ANZ stadium or Leichardt Oval on Saturday Night???  If you can answer that, you have our new CEO.

A Canterbury win will ensure they finish first and with the Roosters very heavy underdogs’ for this match, the bookies are confident of a trophy presentation at Homebush at around 9.30pm. The visitors defence won't be up for the challenge and with the Dogs coming off their biggest loss of the season, it’s no wonder the boys from Bondi have already begun their Mad Monday celebrations. This could get ugly. Mick Ennis returns and the bite returns with him.

My tip: Bulldogs 32-10

 

Wests Tigers v The Melbourne Storm

A sad end to another wild season for the Wests Tigers. Arguably the most talked about club in the NRL this year, they've had a number of injuries mixed with emotional turmoil and forgettable performances in 2012. If, somehow, the universe turns on its axis and other results go their way, they still need to beat Melbourne by more than 14 points to sneak into the finals. Against the Storm, without Robbie Farah, the Tigers may not even score 14 points total.

Disappointing for the Black and Gold faithful and for Gareth Ellis, who plays his final game for the home side and what a 3 years it has been. A devastating runner of the football and one of the better back rowers in our game says farewell… Melbourne play with plenty of confidence after last Monday's miracle and get the win. Just on last Monday - what about the barrels on Sisa Waqa?? Overcalled the big three to go short side and set up the match winner! Fantastic.

My tip: Melbourne 18-16

New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders

The beginning of your Father's day triple header and for all you Dad's in our nation’s capital, this match from Mt Smart on Sunday afternoon should be all you need to make the day a beauty. The Raiders are on a high. They are rolling into the semi-finals with a 4 game winning streak behind them, and the Semi Finals very much in front of them. The Green Machine should take a bow with Williams and McCrone standouts over the past month.

By all rights, they should have no trouble with the Warriors who will be glad to see the end of an unfortunate year. Only a few short weeks ago, they were minutes away from beating the reigning premiers in Perth and getting themselves back in the top 8. Since, they have lost plenty and by plenty. Finally, to bid the loyal Warriors fans farewell this week, they unveil a brand new spine for your viewing pleasure. Dugan the standout.

My tip: Canberra 32-20

 

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Sunday afternoon at Toyota Stadium. What better way to celebrate a new lease on economic life for the Sharks than to win their final home game of the year - confirm their first finals appearance since 2008 and avoid a trip to Canberra. Depending on who you speak to, avoiding a trip to Canberra is standard procedure during the winter months but in the first week of September for sudden death football, don’t go anywhere near it.

The Cowboys come to town on a 3 match winning streak and may or may not bring with them the Australian props, the Australian five-eighth but still a good recent record at Shark Park. Cronulla's grinding style will be a good foil for the Cowboys and when starved of possession, the visitors will have no answer. Colin Best farewells the Sharks fans in style and both teams leave a little bit in reserve for next week's finals. Can’t wait.

My tip: Cronulla 22-16

 

Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons

And so, a season of suffering ends for Eels and Dragons fans alike. Two powerhouses Sydney clubs who haven’t hit the mark in 2012 meet each other in what would normally be a dead rubber; nothing to play for. This time, there's plenty to play for. One more chance to celebrate the career of a Parramatta, NSW and Australian legend in Nathan Hindmarsh and a chance for his teammates to send him off with a win.

Luke Burt also says farewell after a stellar career and we must not forget Ben Hornby and Dean Young. These departing Dragons had their lap of honour last week and really, if not for Hindmarsh, we wouldn’t be playing this game at ANZ. Vale Hindy and thanks for never taking it too seriously off the field, but always giving everything you had on it. Whatever happens on Sunday night, a bunch of good footy players hang up the boots.

My tip: Dragons 24-20

Paully's Picks - Round 25

Canberra Raiders v Canterbury Bulldogs

The Raiders' last home game of the season and one they must win to stay in the hunt for the semi-finals. If that doesn’t set the scene for the Green Machine, then their opponents this Friday night at Canberra Stadium should definitely get the competitive juices flowing. The Bulldogs are coming to town and bringing with them a travelling band of loyalists who won't allow any sub-arctic temperatures to stop them.

Those who believe a loss, just before the finals, is good for a club have probably never met Des Hasler. Nobody prepares more thoroughly for each contest than the Canterbury coach and this will be the difference on the night. The 'Dogs find enough weaknesses in the Canberra defence to win 13 straight and they look good doing it. Josh Reynolds and Mick Ennis the standouts for the league leaders and Canterbury lock in the Minor Premiership.

My tip: Canterbury 24-12

 

Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos

Call it a slump, or a rough patch, or dire straits, but whatever is happening to the once mighty Brisbane Broncos does not look good and might look a whole lot worse on Friday night. Sam Thaiday and his crew bring their 5 game losing streak to Fortress Brookvale and if there was ever a wrong place and a wrong time to turn your fortunes around, this is it. The Eagles have won their past 4 and looked mighty fine in the process.

So, with two teams heading in opposite directions on the competition ladder, you'd think the bookies would help the Broncos out a little more than a 6.5 start. Alas, they know all too well how desperate the visitors will be and as it has done over the past fortnight, this desperation will get them off to a good start but won't get them any further. Tough to tip against the Eagles at home with both Stewart brothers playing and a healthy forward pack.

My tip: Manly 20-16

 

Penrith Panthers v Gold Coast Titans

One last home game for the tortured Penrith faithful. Although, they will take a lot from the fact that their team, somehow, is still playing with pride and commitment. They've won 3 from their past 5 matches including a come-from-behind miracle in Auckland last week. They are still fighting to the last man and can hold their heads high.... and they'll need to on Saturday with the Gold Coast Titans coming to Centrebet Stadium.

Both defences should be cautious with the amount of speed merchants on display in this game. The likes of Mead and Gordon are lightning quick while Mick Jennings and the other Gordon, Michael, only need an inch of space and they'll be gone. An entertaining Saturday arvo match with the visitors too strong. Inspired by the Raiders' loss on Friday night, the Titans see a window of opportunity and climb through it like a thief in the night.

My tip: Gold Coast 28-16

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors

For those of us still alive in the NRL Dream Team or other Fantasy Rugby League competitions, this is a big one. For the Dragons and Warriors, this is not a big one. A season of disappointment is over for these two clubs but just before we give up on this match completely, a teary goodbye looms for Dean Young and Ben Hornby. This is their last home game in the famous red V and what better place to host the party than Wollongong.

So, if their departing Captain's farewell bash isn’t enough to get them motivated, the Dragons will look to their emotional leader in Dean Young for direction and inspiration, as they've done so many times before. The visiting Warriors, with a new coach in charge this week, will give them a good test but it won't be enough to halt the outpouring of sentiment and.... well.... more disciplined football from the home side.

My tip: Saints 24-16

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights

So, with another semi-final tilt around the corner for the Cowboys, the same questions are being asked. Can they mix it with the top sides away from Dairy Farmers Stadium? Do they have enough weapons outside of Thurston to share the load? Will Brent Tate throw a cheap shot at Timana Tahu this week, like he did to Greg Bird in Origin 3? Is anyone actually asking that last question or did I just get carried away?

The Knights have had their own questions to answer this year and ignoring any Tinkler related issues, the one recurring query about Newcastle is their forward pack. Whether you believe this is the problem or not, they didn’t look like much of a pack at Brookvale last week and the same problems with occur on Saturday night. Yardage and field position. The home sides big men too tough for Mason, Snowden and the rest. Cowboys win 3 in a row.

My tip: North Queensland 24-12

 

Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers

These days, it’s easy for fans to criticise the NRL's finest players without knowing the pressures they face - so here goes... Benji Marshall's indifferent form this year, for the most part, has been ignored for a number of reasons. The Tigers managed to win 7 straight midway through the year; they've somehow managed to keep in touch with the top 8 and finally, Robbie Farah is playing out of this world. These reasons have kept the wolves at bay.

But now, a must win match for the Tigers against the cellar dwelling Roosters at Allianz stadium on Sunday afternoon and Benji will have no excuses. With Robbie injured, the Tigers stand-in captain has the fate of the club in his hands as they cling to 8th position with two rounds remaining. Benji will prevail. His forwards accept the challenge from a much younger pack in the Roosters and experience outplays youth - but only just.

My tip: Tigers 24-22

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Parramatta Eels

Testing times at Souths; Losers of two in a row and scoring a paltry 2 tries through both of these losses. This week, off field dramas via the dropping of Issac Luke and nobody knows why. Such is the craziness of the NRL. Last week, Luke donned the cover of a prestigious NRL magazine with claims that he was the Bunnies best ever... now... he lines up for the North Sydney Bears in Merewether on Sunday afternoon. Bizarre.

Luckily for the Rabbitohs, there is no better way to play yourself out of a drama and into some good form than facing the Parramatta Eels. A cure for the Bunnies' attacking woes, Parra will guess right a few times and guess wrong plenty; such is the ad-lib nature of their edge defence. Souths return home to ANZ stadium after 3 weeks on the road and add to their remarkable record at the ground this year. Inglis the standout, again.

My tip: South Sydney 32-12

 

The Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sharks

No quarter given and none asked for on Monday night at AAMI Park. A defensive struggle between two teams headed for the semi-finals, this will be intense and is your Match of the Round. After taking what was essentially a third of the year off to deal with the Origin series, Paul Gallen looked a lot less exhausted last week against the Rabbitohs and suddenly, Cronulla looked the goods again. Controlled and calculated.

By no coincidence, these two words describe the Storm of the past 5 years and Cooper Cronk, in particular, has become the master at it. With Cameron Smith keeping opposition ruck defences honest, Cronk is free to manage the rest. Their battle with Todd Carney and Jeff Robson for control of this game will be a beauty and highlights some of the codes best and brightest. Tough to go away from Melbourne at home in a close one.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

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Paully's Picks - Round 24

Brisbane Broncos v The Melbourne Storm

Also known as the News Limited challenge, this fixture shows two of the NRL's modern day powerhouses. Although lately, the Broncos have been more shithouse than powerhouse and looking at the statistics of the past month, they smell even worse. Their last win coming against the Warriors 5 weeks ago and now 4 losses on the trot - including what must have been a painful experience for their fans against Parramatta at Suncorp.

A number of injuries to the Broncos unit might be a valid reason for this but with more changes to their line up, it will take a massive effort from Brisbane to upset the Storm on Friday night. This is not the time of year to be working on cohesion and Melbourne will benefit from a spine that has this in spades. Slater well rested, Smith too good, Cronk too classy. The visitors prove too clinical and Anthony Griffin wonders what happened to his season.

My tip: Melbourne 18-12


Canterbury Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

No fluke that every game the Bulldogs play these days is 'must watch' rugby league. They've recruited well over the years and we are now seeing the fruits of this labour that started before Des Hasler arrived at Belmore. Young Jackson and Finucane lured from regional NSW and plenty, it seems, from either Queensland or NZ. For those who have ever watched a match in the Canterbury junior competition, no surprise that the 'Dogs look elsewhere.

The Tigers depth has also been tested this year, but safe to say they did not pass with flying colours. In fact, also safe to say that if Robbie Farah does not play, they look like a high school touch football team. No offense intended towards any high school touch football teams, but you get my drift. Mick Ennis v Farah a highlight, as always, but the home side too strong up front and too quick out back. Dogs win 12 straight.

My tip: Canterbury 24-18


Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters

Last week, this column clumsily predicted "Panther Pride" would overcome the Raiders so in the pursuit of blind consistency, I reckon the Roosters are in a heap of trouble this week. Travelling from the Eastern Suburbs - to Canberra - for a 5.30pm game on Saturday - to face a team vying for a spot in the 8 - with temperatures in single figures!!?!?!.... No amount of unnecessary punctuation can explain how badly the visitors will handle this trip.

The Raiders finished over the top of a committed opponent last week and if their forward pack can handle an early onslaught from the Chooks big men, they'll do the same again here. The unsung names of McCrone and Williams teach their more famous and heralded counterparts in Pearce and Anasta a lesson in patience and control. The niggling habits of the Roosters forwards could start something against a tough Raiders pack. Sparks will fly.

My tip: Canberra 28-22

Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs

A big one from Toyota Stadium on Saturday night. Both clubs coming off losses so they'll be more than keen to avoid dropping two in a row. Not only did these two teams get nailed last week, but both the Sharks and the Bunnies’ attack looked impotent in the process. Considering their premiership aspirations, they'll be hoping to score more than 4 and 6 points respectively, this time out. A good test for the halves of both teams to bounce back.

Souths have more weapons across the park and with the return of Greg Inglis, have the most dangerous weapon of all. GI reignites the Bunnies and his combination with John Sutton and Issac Luke gets the visitors home. But only just. This could be a semi final preview with the like of Gallen and Crocker going head to head, Bryce Gibbs and Sam Burgess going nose to nose and if we are lucky, the return of Roy Asotasi to 1st grade. Enjoy.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16


New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

Fingers crossed the pay TV station showing this match uses the local commentators to call the match, rather than sending their own. Whilst we have plenty of time for the Russell's and Raymond's of the commentary world, nothing beats the home-town, one-eyed, hilariously baffling crew that usually call the games from Mt Smart Stadium. So, this burning hot topic will be resolved on Sunday at midday as the Warriors host the Panthers.

Can things get any worse for the home side? They've lost 5 in a row to rip the hearts out of their fans and tear their chances of another Grand Final appearance to shreds. The Panthers are not so different except that they did the same thing months ago and nobody cares anymore. Two teams in the same boat, paddling up the creek without a paddle and facing some troubled waters and rough seas ahead. That last 'sentence' has to be some sort of record.

My tip: Warriors 26-22


Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels

The corresponding fixture last year ended up deciding the winner of the Wooden Spoon. Credit to John Cartwright and the Titans for plenty of improvement this year but unfortunately for the Eels and their fans, nothing has changed. If, as they say, a team’s defence is a reflection of their attitude, then this band of blue and gold battlers must be as keen on defence as Chris Sandow is for pre-season training under Ricky Stuart next year. 

The Titans have too much to play for and at home, their defence will be solid enough and committed enough to handle a Parramatta outfit that average 25 points in attack over the past month. What fun they are having. The Nathan Hindmarsh farewell tour continues but this match will be one to forget for the Eels legend. The Titans forwards lift without Luke Bailey and keep alive the faint hope of semi final football.

My tip: Titans 32-18



Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights

Two clubs in form at the right time of year. The Knights travel to Brookvale Oval on Sunday to face a team they beat by plenty only a few weeks ago. Following that match, Manly lost an epic battle against Canterbury, but subsequently went on a 3 game road trip and came home with the scalps of the Warriors, Cowboys and South Sydney. Big wins, all of them and now, with 8 days rest, they finally come back to the Fortress.

Newcastle have the short turnaround after Monday night footy so will start as 8 or 9 point underdogs, but their style of play will keep this close. Bennett Ball will always carry you far and Wayne seems to have finally convinced the Knights that 'percentage' football is their best chance. They'll try all they can to slow down the Eagles but with momentum and a surging sea of maroon and white jerseys on the hill at Brooky, Manly can't be stopped.

My tip: Manly 20-16


St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys

The Dragons are 8-2 at home this year; 3-1 at Wollongong. Playing in front of their own fans seems to be the only good luck charm for the famous red V and as their season slips further and further into the abyss, a light at the end of the tunnel appears in the form of another game at WIN Stadium. This time, the Cowboys are coming to town and bring with them the best attack in the NRL, statistically speaking.

By contrast, the Dragons have the worst attack in the NRL; it's not even close. Whatever advantage they get from playing at home, they’ll need to get a double dose of it on Monday to win this one. They will.  On a freezing cold night, so far from home, in the bosom of Dragons territory, suddenly the might of the Cowboys’ forward pack aint so mighty and the greatness of Jonathan Thurston aint so great. Upset.

My tip: Dragons 22-18

for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Paully's Picks - Round 23

The Melbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans

Ya kinda want the semi's to start now don't ya? Any team worth their salt and worth a punt for the premiership is in the 8 and the rest can only hope to be cannon fodder if they sneak in to the finals. So, we should shorten the season and have standalone Origin matches. Cool with everyone? OK. Round 23 kicks off with a Melbourne team that have crawled their way through the rep season, and a Titans team that have finally stood up.

Its been a tough year for John Cartwright and his crew but they have fought back; this latest surge from the Robina boys is timed perfectly. Speaking of surges, they'll need an almighty one this Friday night at AAMI Park to cause an upset and whilst they always play well again the Storm, victory is a different proposition altogether. Things are back to where they should be as Melbourne defend as we know they can and run away late.

My tip: The Melbourne Storm 22-10

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles

The timing of this fixture couldn't be more perfect. Along with the swell of momentum and support behind the Bunnies comes the same amount of criticism and most of these are about South Sydney's ability to handle pressure in big games. So, testing themselves against the reigning premiers should answer these questions on Friday night at Bluetongue Stadium. Your match of the round.

The Eagles sit 4th on the ladder and more importantly, at a moment when their back-to-back premiership chances looked thin, have come up with two massive victories in the last fortnight. Over to Perth and up to Townsville, they found ways to win. Now north to Gosford, Manly must be exhausted but as always, will stay in the hunt until the 80th minute and longer if needed. This one decided in the final moments with Souths holding on in a beauty.

My tip: South Sydney 21-20

Parramatta Eels v Sydney Roosters

Team 16 up against team 14 scheduled for the 5.30pm Satdi game. The notorious black hole of fixtures every weekend makes this one even more interesting so if you've just finished a horrible day on the punt, get ready to go again as the Bondi boys travel west to Parramatta Stadium. Markets midweek suggest a close one but picking the winner might not be your best bet. The Eels and the Roosters are the two worst defensive teams in the NRL.

What rugby league greatness awaits us in this one? The mind boggles. Parra average 28 points allowed per game this year while the chooks let in about 25. The forecast rain might keep this match restricted to less than a cricket score so get your bets on before the clouds start looming. Jokes aside, the Nathan Hindmarsh Farewell Tour continues so Eels fans should fill the stadium to watch one of the best ever and pay homage as they should.

My tip: Sydney Roosters 30-24.

North Queensland Cowboys v New Zealand Warriors

A sad finish to 2012 for the once mighty Warriors but things aren't all beer and skittles in Townsville either. Thurston and the Cowboys have lost two in a row against top 8 teams and are in need of a confidence booster. The first 20 minutes of this match will be a window into the soul of both clubs. Will the Warriors have anything left after a heartbreaking month of disasters? And will the Cowboys be ruthless enough to punish the visitors if they don't?

Saturday night at Dairy Farmers Stadium will be unforgiving to New Zealand, especially with so many changes to their line-up. Cohesion will be an issue, their motivation will be fragile and their defence will be challenged for 80 minutes. A big test of character for the Warriors after getting destroyed at home last week with their season on the line. Too much to overcome for the visitors as the Cowboys put in a big one.

My tip: North Queensland 32-12

Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons

The last meeting between these clubs, round 3 this year at Kogarah Oval, was punctuated by the Tim Moltzen story and his defection back to the Tigers after signing with Saints. How quickly we move along in Rugby League. Now, nobody cares and these two teams have shown in recent weeks that they need more than Tim Moltzen to find success. The Dragons came apart last week; at a moment when they could have saved their season.

The Tigers have only just resurrected their season, but still remain in poor shape with an unimpressive defensive record and winning only two of their last seven matches; against the Panthers and the Eels. So, at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night, the Tigers hope to stay in the semi-final picture while the Dragons focus on mathematical equations. Saints rarely win away from Kogarah or Wollongong anymore and the same happens here. Robbie Farah the standout.

My tip: Wests 20-18

Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders

Aside from Michael Gordon, the Panthers entire roster would all hoping for jobs next year and with their Toyota Cup squad sitting equal third on the ladder, there's plenty of pressure. They'll play well at home with this motivation and bounce back strongly from a big loss in Melbourne last week, you can be sure. One thing we cannot be sure of is the Green Machine. Inconsistency plagues the boys from Canberra so bookies have them as outsiders.

The saying, "you're only as good as your last game" should mean that the Raiders win by 50 but whoever coined this saying should have their brain removed. Forever. I've seen it done overseas. It’s a simple operation. Takes about 2 hours….. To digress... The Luke Walsh/Lachlan Coote experiment continues improving and with Panther Pride on the line, the home team comes up with the goods. Tim Grant v Dave Shillington up front a highlight.

My tip: Penrith 24-18

Canterbury Bulldogs v Brisbane Broncos

This time last year, the Bulldogs had fired their coach but still plating with plenty of pride. This pride has turned into something special as season 2012 looms as their best for some time. 10 wins on the trot, redefining the way rugby league is played, the best defence in the land and boasting, arguably, the most entertaining footballer we've seen for some time. Ben Barba will surely be remembered a long time after he is done with the greatest game of all.

So, before we just hand them the premiership, the Brisbane Broncos come to ANZ Stadium on Sunday afternoon to take their medicine and go home. The visitors' forwards still boast some big names and will matchup to the 'dogs forwards well, but not for 80 minutes. If he plays, the Hodges v Morris battle is juicy but the home side has the advantage of momentum and confidence. The Broncos lose their 4th straight.

My tip: Canterbury 24-14

Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks

A cracker. The Sharks signalled their return to form by eviscerating the Warriors in Auckland last week and whilst they won't meet that same flimsy defence in Newcastle on Monday night, they'll be brimming with confidence. Add to that the rumours that Nathan Gardner could return and you have a potent attack and impressive defence that won 4 of their first 6 games to start the season with a healthy roster.

So, they take this form up to Hunter Stadium as slight underdogs against a Knights team who were on their way back to form before running into the Bulldogs last week. A forgiveable loss, if there is such a thing, but the Sharks will bring just as much to the table and will prove too strong. Bennett ball has the home team playing patient football, waiting for their opposition to make mistakes but Paul Gallen and Todd Carney refuse to oblige.

My tip: Cronulla 18-12

Paully's Picks - CLOSE THE GAP Round 22

My favourite NRL initiative and the most inspiring event on the NRL calendar, Close the Gap Round not only highlights the issue around life expectancy rates amongst Indigenous Australians, but helps create cultural awareness. This weekend's purpose is best summed up by a quote from the One Community website;

Australian, Maroons and Melbourne captain Cameron Smith: “As a parent, it’s heart-breaking to know that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies have more than double the chance of dying before the age of one”.

Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra Dragons

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Gadigal People of the Eora nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

The Dragons must have a sniff of the semifinals now after winning a couple of big home games in recent weeks and will be especially confident in this match on Friday night at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters, by contrast, would only be sniffing the foul stench of failure. A tough season with their very young forward pack learning a harsh lesson about discipline.

In fact, the Chooks only victory in the last 4 months was against the Tigers in round 15 when their opposition was heavily distracted. Wretched times at Bondi but with youth, comes enthusiasm so they’ll give the Dragons everything they can handle for 80 minutes. Saints should have enough in them to get the biscuits here. They win with defense and desperation to keep their season alive.

My tip: St George Illawarra 20-18

The Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wurundjeri People of the Kulin Nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Surely. Surely this is the end of the rut. For those of us who saw the Panthers beat Cronulla last week – we noticed two things. 1. The Sharks may have been completely robbed by the referees and 2. The Panthers, no matter what the end result, looked inspired. They played with a passion and enthusiasm not seen from this club in some time. They even looked like they were enjoying their footy and playing hard for each other.

The Storm, meanwhile, have lost their last 5 matches and look anything other than ‘on the same page’. Having said all that, if not for the defensive instincts of one Brett Morris, they beat the Dragons in Wollongong last week and this conversation is over. Saturday afternoon footy returns to your TV with a 3.30pm kick off as Melbourne finally break the shackles.

My tip: Melbourne 24-12

Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Awabakal and Worimi Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A complete domination of the Canberra Raiders in our nation’s capital last weekend has the League community fearing the return of Wayne Bennett and his Newcastle Knights. They were methodical on Sunday and could have won by 50 if not for a few bombed opportunities in the opening 20 minutes. Ordinarily this would send shivers through any opposition.

The Bulldogs are not any opposition. They sit atop the ladder, have the best defense in the league and are winners of their past nine matches. Only a fool would tip against them, if you know what I mean. In a match dripping with excitement and great matchups, the highlights here will be Mick Ennis up against his former mentor in Danny Buderus and Willie Mason up against the colours that made him famous… or infamous.

My tip: Bulldogs 16-14

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Bindal and Wulgurukaba Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Part 3 of your Saturday Triple Header and for those of us who have made it back from the bottle shop to re-stock in time for kick-off. Congratulations. The opening exchanges will be fearsome – and not only between the forwards. Keep an eye on the Matai v Tate encounter and I defy anyone to find two more miserable footballers in 1^st grade today.

Speaking of miserable, the Eagles’ will come down from their flight of fancy to get a dose of reality as the Cowboys will prove too strong here. Manly were a mess in the opening 50 minutes of last week’s miracle in Perth and won’t be able to fix those problems quick enough to beat the Cowboys. Chances are they will be missing Watmough and captain Jason King. The Cowboys forwards too good.

My tip: North Queensland 30-16

New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sharks

Both last start losers in the dying moments. Literally the last second decided their respective fates last week and this match from Mt Smart Stadium on Sunday at noon will be a test for both teams to bounce back. The Sharks will definitely bounce higher if Carney and Gallen are playing but at this stage it looks as though only the latter will make the trip.

This leaves the Cronulla attack without enough punch to overcome an angry Warriors team staring directly at the prospect of an early end to their season if they can’t win this one. Shaun Johnson and Kevin Locke should find enough space late in this game to run away with it and keep the Warriors season alive. Cronulla drop their 4^th in a row and the future does not look bright.

My tip: Warriors 30-18

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Ngunnawal and Ngambri Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

It says a lot about the Broncos that from an entire season so far, we can only remember two bad performances and by bad, I mean slightly embarrassing. Round 17 against the Sharks was, perhaps, forgivable as they were missing their rep players, but the opening exchanges in that match made the baby Broncos look a lot worse than simply inexperienced.

Then, we have last Monday’s loss to the Eels. A more staggered and shambolic defensive line you will not see from a Broncos outfit before or after this loss. What better way to bounce back than to travel to Canberra to face a Raiders team hell bent on destroying their own chances this season? Not sure if that was a question or a statement but you get the point. The Broncos will be desperate.

My tip: Brisbane 19-18

Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Yugambeh People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A beauty. South Sydney bring their 5 match winning streak and league leading attack to Skilled Park on Sunday afternoon to face the Titans. Winners of 3 in a row and holding the much coveted 8^th position on the ladder –they won’t go quietly. In fact, credit must go to the Gold Coast after on field performances early in the season were almost as painful as their financial dramas.

They’ve recovered from both problems to be a player in this year’s Premiership and the bunnies will be a huge test to see how far they’ve come. Not far enough. The Rabbitohs travel outside of Sydney for the first time in 6 weeks but have a system strong enough to handle the challenge. The likes of Burgess and Taylor running into Myles and Douglas will make for great entertainment.

My tip: South Sydney 26-16

Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Dharawal People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Round 22 comes to a close with a Monday Night showdown at Campbelltown Stadium. A few weeks ago, this battle of the west would have been an easy tip but unfortunately for Tigers fans, things have changed. The Tigers have had an emotional season; A 5 match losing streak, followed by a 7 match winning streak and now the doldrums again. They must be exhausted.

The Eels, by contrast and by miracle, have found their mojo and whilst some wonder where this form has been, fans of Nathan Hindmarsh are thankful. What a travesty of justice it would have been for Hindy to go out as part of a shameful football team. Rather, the Nathan Hindmarsh Farewell Tour will roll out of Campbelltown triumphantly as the Tigers still can’t find a way out of their hole.

My tip: Parramatta 25-18



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Paully's Picks - Round 21

St George Illawarra Dragons v The Melbourne Storm

Old rivals. Saints and the Storm will have a bloody good go at each other on Friday night in Wollongong; and for good reason. Melbourne have lost 4 in row and must be getting sick of it whilst the Dragons are struggling in their own way, but still only 2 points behind 8th position. Desperate times? Perhaps. Desperate measures? No. You won't see anything different from the two best defensive units of the past 5 years.

Times and results may have changed, but their philosophies have not so get comfortable and get ready for Wrestlemania. Not the WWE version with fireworks and ladder matches and 3 hours of entertainment... we're talking about the NRL version with rolling pins and chicken wings. Actually... there might be more similarities than we thought. Cameron Smith's 'ankle hold' looks surprisingly similar to a submission move which is quite apt because watching this game could make me 'tap out'.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

Ever noticed how, after a few losses, the media can turn every club into a soap opera style drama? Parramatta's senior players don't talk to the junior players?? The Tigers dressing room is split into sections where some hang out and some can't?? And now to the Roosters... halfback Mitchell Pearce is claimed to have delivered an ultimatum - either Brian Smith goes, or Pearce does...?? Rubbish – all of it. Since when did 1st grade footballers turn into a bunch of private school kids?

Don't answer that - this rant is over. Just like the Roosters chances of any success on the field this year and on Friday night, they host a team moving in the opposite direction. The Titans are back after crushing the Raiders in Canberra and then beating the Broncos at home. They win again on Friday night at Allianz with solid defence and a forward pack ready to take on the Bullies from Bondi. Nate Myles will be especially keen to send a message.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-18

Canterbury Bulldogs v North Queensland Cowboys

Coaches in the NRL seem to be really enjoying themselves this year. Perhaps a few of them got together in March and decided to use the same phrases for every interview in 2012 and by gum, it's hilarious. We've all come to expect at least one "under the radar" reference each week and now we've lost count of all the teams referred to as 'the benchmark' or 'the yardstick'. Well, on Saturday night, we will find out whose yardstick is bigger.

The 'Dogs host the Cowboys in what will be your match of the round. Canterbury are on an unbelievable 8 match winning run where their defence has ruled the town. At 5.30pm on Saturday they face the team with the best attack in the NRL. Who breaks first? The ‘Dogs. They’ll be missing two blokes that touch the ball plenty in Kasiano and Keating and whilst the ‘dogs managed to handle this adversity last week, the Cowboys will fire a lot more bullets.

My tip: North Queensland 18-16

Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers

This is where the season feels a bit too long for the Cronulla Sharks. Learning the hard way as so many have done before them that success in the NRL brings its own set of problems, the Sharks look tired. Injuries and losing players to rep season are part and parcel, but nobody expected a performance like last week's against the Raiders at Toyota Stadium. This Saturday Night, the boys from the Shire get a chance at redemption.

Paul Gallen and Jeremy Smith are named to return and the Panthers are coming to town. This has the bookies leaning heavily towards the Sharks and with upcoming road trips to Auckland and Newcastle; they'll be desperate to win at home. Almost as desperate as I am to tip correctly but unlike me, the Sharks know what they are doing and they bounce back from the horror and shame of last week to get their season back on track.

My tip: Cronulla 30-12

Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors

The longest possible road trip that COULD be scheduled for the Warriors..... HAS been scheduled for the Warriors as they take on Manly this Saturday night in Perth. Is Ken Arthurson back in charge of the NRL? Seems like someone's done the Eagles a favour here and if you believe Geoff Toovey's post match comments last Friday, it’s about damn time. They were shafted. Everyone in the league community thinks so, because we all have a soft spot for Manly.

Since the sarcasm switch on my computer seems to be broken - let's get straight to the point. The Grand Final replay will be a beauty with both clubs keen to overcome tough losses last round. When the Warriors get over their jet lag, they'll be primed for this one but inconsistency haunts them again and the Eagles will be too good. A real highlight watching Maloney and Johnson against Foran and Cherry-Evans. Enjoy.

My tip: Manly 22-16

Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights

Having a top 8 semi-final structure in a 16 team competition has helped save face for these two teams. Both clubs have experienced some dark times this season with a number of losing streaks and more than one occasion of fans questioning the direction of the club. So, armed with the knowledge that you only have to turn up after June in the NRL these days, the Knights and the Raiders have a shot at the playoffs with nearly identical records.

Last weekend’s matches were almost like 'coming out parties' for both teams. The Knights came back from plenty down at Mt Smart while the Green Machine absolutely thumped the Sharks at Toyota Stadium. Big wins - and now the test of consistency comes again for Canberra as they hold the advantage at home. For mine, they ruin their chances again with poor discipline and underestimating the opposition. The Boyd/Mullen/ Buderus spine is warming up.

My tip: Newcastle 24-22

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers

The Bunnies are rolling. Winners of their past 4 matches and scoring an impressive average of 33 points a game over that span, they now sit equal second on the ladder. (Not sure if I've ever said those words before). Not only did South Sydney overcome the Monday night hoodoo last week, they destroyed the Dragons in what many expected to be a close one and some experts even tipped as the upset of the week. Pity - there were plenty of them.

For the Tigers, their season rests in the weary hands of Robbie Farah. Their attack looks great when he has the ball, playing from the ruck; but over the past few weeks they've not looked very fluid when others are involved. If Robbie doesn't get the platform he needs to attack Souths' defence, the Tigers will struggle. They do. Souths are heavy on the accelerator these days and won't let up for this match. Peats and Merritt are ample replacements for Luke and Inglis.

My tip: Souths 30-18

Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels

A new coach for the Parramatta Eels and if you follow history, this usually means a big win for a struggling club. Usually. Interim coach Brad Arthur's first assignment is to take the Eels up to Suncorp Stadium for Monday Night football to face the Broncos. His first order of business was to bring back Ben Roberts from NSW cup and while this might confuse a few Eels fans, to the rest of us it says that Arthur is giving everyone a clean slate.

That slate is about to get very dirty. The Broncos will be keen to find some form after losing last week and halves Peter Wallace and Corey Norman, after receiving most of the criticism, will be out to atone. They do. Brisbane get off to a flying start through their forwards and they never look back. With a number of injuries to the Bronco backline, the likes of Hannant, Thaiday and Parker respond to the challenge and dominate up the middle.

My tip: Brisbane 25-12

for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/