Paully's Picks - 2012 Grand Final

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v The Melbourne Storm 

And so it comes to this. 1v2 on the ladder. Combined, these clubs have won 13 out of their last 14 matches. They've been the two best teams all year and they own the two best defensive records on the season. They are coached by the two most successful league mentors of the modern era. The Melbourne Storm and the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs are your 2012 NRL Grand Finalists on Sunday afternoon at Homebush and what a beauty it promises to be.    

Contrasting styles. It's been the hot topic all week and credit must go to Canterbury coach Des Hasler for using the skill of his forwards to such potential. Hasler has drilled his big men to play a style that opposes the grind and makes it difficult to wrestle. The Dogs don't send a solitary sacrificial settler at you, they send a line of ball players and hole runners and not just when they're in attacking position; but even when coming out of their own end. They've dominated opposition packs all year and scored plenty of tries from distance.

Melbourne's attack is just as lethal. They don't simply grind out points as they have done in the past via their discipline and defence. Cooper Cronk and Cam Smith can beat you with a game plan and are smart enough to play what they see on the field. Got a weakness? They'll find it either on video or in an instant, during the game. With a glut of possession, they destroyed the reigning premiers last week and the Rabbitohs a fortnight before. They are on a 7 match winning streak and average over 31 points in attack over that stretch. They are the favourites. 

For the Bulldogs to win, they must overcome the experience of Smith, Cronk and Slater, who have proven themselves at the highest level. Canterbury does have an advantage in the forwards, but will need Josh Reynolds, Kris Keating and Ben Barba to handle the biggest occasion of their footballing lives. Cronk, especially, is the Bulldogs' biggest obstacle. You can bet his kicking game will leave Barba out of the flow of this match as much as possible. You can bet his defence will be first class and you can bet that he'll be playing with a very large chip on his shoulder. 

This motivation will be the Storm’s advantage. Since being forced to play 20 rounds of NRL football for no reward and no purpose in 2010, Melbourne’s emotional leaders have been waiting for a shot at redemption. This kind of incentive can drive the likes of Cronk to new levels of performance. It has. He is the Australian halfback, winner of the 2012 Warren Ryan medal, kicked that heartbreaking field goal in the Origin decider - and now sets his sights on an NRL Premiership.  

Both teams will be prepared to perfection. They will be primed for kick off. They won't be shy out of the gates and this Grand Final will start at a furious pace with ferocious physicality - and then be decided in the dying moments where the experience of Melbourne’s spine makes the difference.  

My tip: Melbourne 19-18
Clive Churchil Medallist tip: Cooper Cronk

Paully's Picks - Prelim Finals

Melbourne Storm v Manly Sea Eagles

The most heated rivalry of the last decade and what a story it has been. Not only have the regular season meetings been fierce and sometimes violent; but Melbourne and Manly have met a number of times in the finals and each meeting seemed to make them hate each other even more. They bring this perfectly evolved animosity to your first Preliminary Final on Friday night and both clubs are in familiar territory. Won't be hesitant. Won't shy away from the occasion. They've been here before.

This time last year, the Storm were beaten by the Warriors and at the time, it seemed like their blueprint for winning had been completely destroyed. Their attack was starved of possession, their defence out- smarted and their pants pulled down. Manly, by contrast, were playing the role of bully against a Broncos team without Darren Lockyer and here they are 12 months later, one win away from the GF. Another big game for two powerhouse clubs.

And what a game it will be. A furious opening 20 minutes will have you begging for more and when the forwards settle down and the brains of each operation takes over, it will be Cooper Cronk who leads the way. Cronk was the Leagueunlimited player of the year and on the back of an amazing season, he proves the difference again here. But the Australian halfback won't be alone in delivering the spectacular.

The home side have been waiting for this moment for a long, long time and Craig Bellamy will have them pulsating with rage and high on angry pills. The mighty Eagles will have their premiership winning forward pack at the ready and with the return of Steve Matai, could break a record for players on report in the opening exchanges. In the end, Melbourne are a better team than 12 months ago and they prove it in front of an adoring home crowd.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Through all the changes our code has been through, Sydney rivalries are still the most beloved by NRL fans. These two famous clubs have met on 144 occasions and their two meetings this year have been as good as any of them. Round 6; where Greg Inglis denied the 'Dogs attack by repeatedly bringing the ball out of his own in goal when he had no right to do so. Then, round 13; when Ben Barba saved the game for his team with a try saver in the dying moments.

The stakes are just a little higher this time. At kick-off their will be the roar of 70 odd thousand heaving souls and 34 footy players who won't give a flying frisbee about the past, only the next 80 minutes of a desperate future. Souths have come so far this season; it’s not hard to see a bright future for a once struggling club, no matter what the result this weekend. It has been an impressive turnaround led by GI, a few Souths juniors and a monstrous forward pack.

The Bulldogs have had a similar turnaround. A season of turmoil in 2011 and now, a Minor Premiership. They have a great balance of youth and experience, a great balance of style and substance, a great balance of mongrel and control and finally, a coach that knows exactly how to fill the trophy cabinet. The Bulldogs have been the best team for most of 2012 and perhaps, that is their only weak point.

To take advantage of any over confidence in the Dogs, the Rabbitohs will be looking to settle their nerves early and force the favourites on the back foot. Adam Reynolds' kicking game will need to be just a brilliant as last week if they are to do this but he might be spending more time kicking out of his own half. The Bulldogs forward pack will be the difference in this one. Led by Aidan Tolman, they outwork the Bunnies and defend their way to victory.

My tip: Canterbury 18-12

Paully's Picks - Finals Week 2

Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys

Such is the pressure of finals footy. Years of hard work from coaches and players and suddenly – we come to the realisation that one of these very good teams only has 80 minutes left of their season. It becomes about who wants it more. The Manly club have done well to recover from back office grumblings and the loss of Des Hasler just days after celebrating the 2011 premiership. But now, they stand on the brink of devastation as they face the Cowboys at Allianz Stadium in your 1st Semi Final on Friday night.

The Sea Eagles began last week's match against Canterbury as the aggressors and dominated possession in the early going but were only able to score 10 points in the first 40 minutes and went scoreless in the second. Much credit should go to the Bulldogs defence, but the Eagles need to be better with the ball to pose a threat to a potent North Queensland team. The Cowboys have won their past 5 and averaged 35 points in attack over that period. They are the best attacking team, statistically, in the competition and are almost injury free.

Manly will be confident having beaten the Cowboys in their last two meetings. Round 22 at Dairy Farmers this year, where the reigning premiers held their hosts to 6 points in a big win; and Week 1 of the Finals last year, where the Eagles scored 42 unanswered points in the second half to boot the Cowboys out of the comp . This time round, coach Neil Henry, captain Jonathan Thurston and their superstar front rowers finally turn the tables and get the job done and the Eagles are 'two and out'. Pity that only a few thousand people will see it at Allianz - but strap yourselves in for a beauty.

My tip: North Queensland 20-14

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders

Saturday night at Homebush; where the Bunnies have an outstanding record this season and are heavy favourites to beat the upstart kids from our nation’s capital. The Green Machine have won their past 6 matches and are playing with a huge level of belief in themselves and their destiny. How this type of confidence sprang from a team under so much pressure mid-way through season is a mystery. One more reason why Rugby League is the Greatest Game of All.

The Raiders' have a 7-5 away record this year, which should add to their confidence but they have only played at ANZ Stadium once. A 36-18 loss to South Sydney. Speaking of South Sydney, of the 8 teams to play finals footy last week, Souths received the most criticism after their loss to the Storm. Melbourne would have beaten plenty that day but the challenge now is for Coach Michael Maguire to calm them all down and for an inexperienced Bunnies team to bounce back.

He does, they do. Discipline will be the key to Souths moving forward. They showed little against the Storm and if that happens again, the Raiders will capitalise as they did against Cronulla last week. The difference here is Greg Inglis. He won't be fumbling his way through a match as big as this one. GI will finish off what the Rabbitohs forwards start in the opening exchanges - which will shake the very foundations of the entire Olympic precinct. Taylor and Papalii, Shillington and Burgess, both packs will rip in and when the dust settles, a grind will ensue and the Bunnies win their first semi-final since before half of this squad was born.

My tip: South Sydney 19-12

Paully's Picks - 2012 Finals Series Week 1.

Canterbury Bulldogs v Manly Sea Eagles

An epic encounter awaits us all to begin the 2012 Finals Series from ANZ Stadium on Friday night. Minor Premiers, the Bulldogs, host 4th place finishers Manly and whilst under the new playoff structure this game is not sudden death; it will definitely feel like there is no tomorrow for these two clubs. Especially when all the talk about coaches is over and the players decide who wins and who loses, rather than the bloke with the headphones on.

And what a mighty collection of footballers we have here. Two forward packs with almost no weak links and plenty of courage. They play close to the line and do not take a backward step while also showing class and amazing skill with ball in hand. But if the forwards don't peak your interest, keep an eye on the battle between Steve Matai and Krisnan Inu as they resume their memorable confrontation from last year’s decider. A violent beginning to the business end with the 'Dogs sneaking home.

My tip: Canterbury 20-18

 

The Melbourne Storm v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Storm's 2012 tilt feels like it’s been years in the making. Well, actually, it has. They've been through plenty and been stripped of plenty more. Finally, they come to this time and place to exorcize the demons of salary caps past. The time and place in question is Saturday night at AAMI Park and the opponent standing in their way resembles a familiar family friend. Former Bellamy understudy, Michael Maguire, has led the Bunnies to the Promised Land.

Unfortunately for the 'pride of the league', they get a harsh lesson in semi-final football from the best defensive team in the NRL. Souths have plenty of weapons to turn to but opportunities will not present themselves often enough for the likes of Inglis, Taylor and Burgess to find the space they need. The Storm's grinding style will keep them in the driver’s seat and carry them to a win in front of a raucous home crowd.

My tip: Melbourne 18-8

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

Part 2 of your Saturday night double header and unlike the Friday night double headers that make up the regular season, this one will be live from Dairy Farmers. So sit back, hit the mute button on the one they call 'bolts' Hadley and enjoy an absolute cracker. The round 15 meeting between these Queensland rivals saw the boys from Townsville win 12-0 at a time when the Broncos were on fire, scoring 90 points in their previous 2 games.

Brisbane would only win 3 more games following that match and have been mired in an attacking slump that has seen their halves come under criticism and even been dropped. Going to North Queensland to play sudden death football will not be the remedy they require and it will be Jonathan Thurston who shows them how to control field position and turn it into points. If he doesn't get ya, Matt Bowen will. Cowboys too good.

My tip: North Queensland 24-12

 

Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks

The Sharks are coming off an eventful fortnight, to say the least. They outplayed the Storm in Melbourne only to lose to a miracle try in the last second; then good news midweek with securing their financial future, followed by a complete shellacking from the Cowboys at Toyota Stadium. Then, if that wasn't enough for their long suffering fans; a circus like judiciary hearing in the week before their biggest game of the season!

Under normal circumstances, this would be a monumental mountain to climb, but this week, it's freakin' Everest. Can the Sharks travel to Canberra for sudden death football; on Sunday afternoon as $2.40 underdogs; to face a sold out stadium cheering for the Raiders, who, just for kicks, have won their last five matches? Damn straight. Sharks win on the back of Paul Gallen who has been through enough pain this year to last a while. He refuses to let this season slip away.

My tip: Sharks 25-18


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