Paully's Picks - 2011 Grand Final

Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors

And then there were two.

This decider represents a changing of the guard when it comes to the style of footy considered successful in the NRL. For so long, the ruck tactics and defensive dominance of teams like the Melbourne Storm and St George Illawarra were winning premierships. The Manly Sea-Eagles and the New Zealand Warriors do it a little differently, they simply want to score tries and bash people in defence. Do not confuse this approach as not playing percentage and disciplined football, but patience and control are bywords of their football philosophy, rather than the be-all and end-all.

This match also represents the coming of age of two very special footballers. Make no mistake about Kieran Foran and his opposite number, James Maloney; they are the real superstars of their respective clubs and represent a return to glory of the dominant number 6. What a return this is. The two infant halfbacks in this match are playing out of their skin and with the world at their feet, but they’d be lost little children without their respective number 6’s.

Manly have been the best in so many areas across the park this season and they bring that consistency to ANZ stadium on Sunday night as their biggest weapon. Rookie halfback Daly Cherry-Evans has been in the spotlight this week after a magnificent season. Not to mention a performance beyond belief for a man so young in the Eagles’ prelim final against the Broncos. As always, his forwards deserve plenty of credit and this is where Manly hold the edge. They aim-up during the opening exchanges but are fit enough to have plenty left in the tank to destroy you late, as proven in the Cowboys match in week 1 of the semis.

The underdogs from Auckland, however, bring a huge level of belief in their ability and confidence must be sky high in the Warriors camp after laying waste to the premiership dreams of some big names. Benji and the Tigers? Gone. Bellamy and the Storm? Bye bye. Now it’s Manly’s turn and if the ‘visitors’ are to be any chance, it will once again be up to their senior players to step forward and give the kiwi youngsters a helping hand in the biggest game of their lives so far. Mannering, Luck and Maloney will be the standouts but Johnson and Locke will need to deliver something special for New Zealand to take home the trophy.

In the end, it will be too much to ask for Ivan Cleary’s men. The Eagles will have the experience and the killer instinct when it counts in this match. The opening 20 minutes will see them dominate in defence as Glenn Stewart comes out in a blaze of pent up anger and then the cool head of Kieran Foran takes over to release the superior talent of the silvertails’ backline. Plenty of superstars on show in this one and on the biggest stage of all, the Manly Sea Eagles will be last men standing in season 2011. This will be a beauty.

My tip: Manly 25-12

Clive Churchill Medallist prediction: Kieran Foran

Paully's Picks - Finals week 3

Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos


Free bus rides or no free bus rides, big crowd or no big crowd, these two clubs will be ready for a monumental game of rugby league on Friday night at the SFS. Even though some fans can’t help but feel robbed after learning of Darren Lockyer’s omission from this match, we will still be treated to a beauty. In fact, the opening exchanges become all the more important as Manly will not want to be chasing any points against the now heavy underdogs from Brisbane.

The Broncos forwards will be superb, their exciting and speedy backline will give everything they have, but unfortunately for them and all who believe in fairy tales, the visitors will not have enough to get through. Kieran Foran elevates his reputation even further with a mighty performance as the Sea Eagles come out blazing from two weeks rest and reach another Grand Final. The Broncos will struggle to turn possession into points and when Manly get their chances, look for Jamie Lyon and Brett Stewart to do the damage. Eagles the first team into the big one.

My tip: Manly 20-12



Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors

First and foremost, credit where it is due; Magnificent effort by both clubs to reach the prelim final when not many would have picked them to do so and when other rosters looked more likely to come this far. Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk have done wonders for the Storm, again, to have them 80 minutes away from the GF. James Maloney has worked a similar brand of magic to lead the Warriors to such success and come Saturday night at AAMI Park, he will need to be every bit the magician to get past the home side.

The Storm’s defence presents another huge challenge for Ivan Cleary and his men. It is a proverbial brick wall that has allowed an average of just over 12 points per game through the season and will be even more resolute at home after a week off. The visitors will not be given many opportunities as Melbourne turn every play-the-ball into peak hour at central station; crowded, slow and a little smelly. If the visitors can overcome this snail’s pace style of footy and can score at least 3 tries – they win. They won’t. The grind wins again.

My tip: Melbourne 14-10

For live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Paully's Picks - Finals week 2

West Tigers v NZ Warriors

Before Warriors coach Ivan Cleary moves to Penrith in a few weeks time, the biggest challenge of his career stands like a mountain in front of him. How to get the New Zealand Warriors back from the 'dead'. Last week's game against the Broncos was arguably their most disappointing big match performance in the club's history. Perhaps their fans should not have expected too much from such an inexperienced spine.

There-in lies the key, again, to why the Tigers will move ahead in this year’s premiership race. Robbie Farah's combination with Benji Marshall will simply be too much to handle for the visitors at the Sydney Football Stadium on Friday night. The Tigers forwards are fresh and will be in the right places at the right time in this match as their collective experience wins well over a much improved, but ultimately out-matched New Zealand team. Can't see the Tigers not being ready for this.

My tip: Wests 30-12

  

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

An epic battle awaits the 50,000 strong at Suncorp, as well as the soaring number of footy fans up and down the eastern seaboard who will be glued to their television sets. The Broncos will bring a perfectly balanced combination of youth and experience to face the reigning premiers who have, in the past, balanced a record breaking defence with a clinical and patient attack. The question is, can they still deliver on the big stage or has their time passed?

Dragons fans should be prepared for the latter. Even though the smart money says Wayne Bennett will have them perfectly prepared for Saturday's night's blockbuster, it won't be enough to match up against the home side. Alex Glenn's performance last week reminded some of the great Brad Clyde and he will again be a standout against two of the best in Beau Scott and Ben Creagh. A juicy confrontation but can't help but feel that this is not Darren Lockyer's last game. 

My tip: Brisbane 19-12


for live updates for both games - go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php

Paully's Picks - Finals Week 1

Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons

Make no mistake, this game will be played at sudden death speed and will keep you enthralled until the final moments are played out. Put simply, that’s just what the Tigers do. Coaches Sheens and Bennett, with two lifetimes of rugby league experience, have their respective clubs at peak fitness for this match. It is no coincidence that both clubs essentially have their best 17 available on Friday night at Homebush to kick of the 2011 finals.

Form has proven less important than fitness for the Dragons and the Tigers so tune in to see the fittest and the fastest go head to head. Watching Beau Scott go face to face with Benji Marshall and probably instigate two or three ‘dust ups’ will be a highlight as will round two of the ‘race riot’ between Robbie Farah and Dean Young. NRL footy at its finest and in the end, the Dragons defence is again the winner in an absolute pearler between two ‘traditional’ Sydney teams. Always a winning formula.

My tip: St George Illawarra 16-14



Brisbane Broncos v NZ Warriors

A big test for the many youngsters in this game as the Warriors travel to Brisbane on Saturday night to face the Broncos. Names like Beale and Reed... Locke and Johnson.... may well be superstars in the future but semi final football has a very different learning curve. They will be under pressure and that is when the cream rises to the top. Or is it when we separate the men from the boys? Will we get rocks or diamonds? I’m rambling due to semi final excitement.

Either way – the experience in the Broncos team will shine brighter in another close match between these clubs. Lockyer, Hannant, Hodges and Wallace keep their heads when this game is decided in the final 10 minutes but no doubt it will be a classic. With James Maloney and Feleti Mateo leading the way, the Warriors have plenty of weapons and will put a scare through the 50,000 screaming Queenslanders at Suncorp, but will not be able to hold on.

My tip: Brisbane 22-20



Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys

A huge ask for the Cowboys. Winners of only 1 from their past 5 and losing their most dangerous ball runner in Tariq Sims, they face the Sea Eagles with their season on the line. The only saving grace for the visitors is that their captain and superstar Jonathan Thurston is possibly the only man capable of overcoming these odds and combined with the venue change away from Brookvale, the Cowboys do have a sniff.

Manly’s defence is second best in the competition and their attack is outright first. With the return of Kieran Foran, they will be brutal, they will be potent and they will start with a ferocity saved especially for the finals. The Cowboys will match this intensity early but won’t have enough to last the 80 minutes. Rookie of the Year Daly Cherry-Evans plays his first ever post season match against the best halfback in the world and this will be a highlight among many.

My tip: Manly 24-18



Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights

The Knights have nothing to lose and will give this game an almighty crack on Sunday afternoon at AAMI Stadium. Early in the match, they win the battle of the forwards when experienced hitters like Neville Cositgan, combined with the youthful animosity of Joel Edwards, give the Storm a few headaches during the opening exchanges: until the wrestling begins and Melbourne slow things down to a crawl.

Unfortunately for Knights fans, the Minor Premiers’ defence holds strong and come the final quarter of this match, Cameron Smith will take over and ensure Melbourne’s week off. A courageous finish to a difficult season for Newcastle but they will go out with a bang. Keep an eye on everyone’s favourite footballer, Akuila Uate in this one – he will no doubt be launching himself into the best defence in the competition and you won’t want to miss it.

My tip: Melbourne 23-10

For live updates throughout the weekend - go to http://leagueunlimited.com/