Paully's Picks - Round 8 (part 2)

Brisbane Broncos v Gold Coast Titans

A Queensland derby to continue round 8 as the Broncos host the Titans from Suncorp. Brisbane are 6 from 7 on the season whilst playing an entertaining brand and boasting some of the best young talent in the NRL. The Titans, well, would be happy to boast that the club is still afloat these days, but have not lost any of their pride. They stood up to be counted at Brookvale last start and came away from the fortress with a win.

This assignment will be very different. Wonder boy Aidan Sezer will be brought back down to earth and the relentless Broncos attack will prove too much for the visitors. Tantalising matchup out wide with Jack Reed facing Jamal Idris but it will be the likes of Alex Glenn and Sam Thaiday bending the Titans line that will cause the most damage. Brisbane finish stronger but the boys from Robina simply refuse to crumble.

My tip: Brisbane 30-14

Canterbury Bulldogs v Manly Sea Eagles

If you've had a chance to catch your breath after the ANZAC Day matches, then settle in for another blockbuster from ANZ stadium on Friday night. The Eagles and the 'Dogs have a great rivalry to begin with, but now it’s been juiced up a little. Accusations of poaching, court cases, players jumping ship... the drama continues. Strangely, this is the way of things in 2012 as coaches can be plotting the downfall of an opposing player one day; and trying to sign him the next.

Kieran Foran is that player. He returns from injury with the Stewart brothers to put Manly ahead in the betting and in the end, ahead on the scoreboard. Whilst Hasler has the 'Dogs playing the type of football that almost beat the Storm a fortnight ago, it will not be enough to get over his old club. The Kris Keating/Josh Reynolds combination simply won't have enough points in them to dethrone the reigning premiers, but they will give it a bloody good go.

My tip: Manly 24-14

South Sydney Rabbitohs v North Queensland Cowboys

Flip a coin, people. The Cowboys come off a complete annihilation of the Roosters while the Bunnies defence is reeling from a 40 point thrashing by the Warriors last start. Both clubs bouncing between good and bad games, never quite nailing down a consistent approach so expect exactly the same in this match at Homebush on Saturday night. Momentum shifts, lead changes and no doubt a big finish.

So, with the game on the line in the final 20, Jonathan Thurston and Matt Bowen deliver once again to get the 2 points for the visitors from Townsville. On a night where all Cowboy fans will be salivating at the thought Tariq Sims and James Taumalolo being on the field at the same time, these young firebrands will deliver and deliver well. Adam Reynolds and John Sutton might want to double up in the underwear department.

My tip: North Queensland 30-20

Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sharks

Sunday afternoon in our nation's capital has the mighty Sharks on the road to face the Raiders under duress. Whilst they get the amazing Shaun Fensom back from injury this week, the Raiders once again take the field without their biggest stars. Josh Dugan still confined to the circus with that horrendous looking shoulder and Terry Campese out of action for season 2012. Heartbreak for Campo but another opportunity for the talented Sam Williams.

Talented, yes... but against the Sharks... No. The Gallen, Bukuya and Smith back row continues to inspire memories of Gavin Miller and Dan Stains whilst the Todd Carney experiment continues to succeed. Carney's combination with Jeff Robson will lead the visitors to a hard fought win against a tough opposition. The Raiders will start strong but its Carney who reminds the Raiders fans how unlucky they are.

My tip: Cronulla 24-20

  

Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers

Only a few short seasons ago, this fixture had fans and commentators alike turning rabid with excitement. Jarryd Hayne might have been the best they had ever seen and Benji Marshall was a magician with the football. These days, the Eels are winners of 1 from 7 and the Tigers once famous attack has not yet shifted into high gear. Perhaps a result of new age defensive strategies in the NRL, or perhaps the dream is over.

Either way, the traditional battle between two Western Sydney clubs on Sunday afternoon at Parramatta Stadium can still draw a crowd. Hayne will fire, no doubt, but it will be Benji and Robbie Farah who finish on top. The home side still lack direction with Sandow and Roberts in charge and this will cost them dearly as the weight of possession tells a story once again. The Tigers control the ball and get their mojo back.

My tip: Wests 30-12

Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers

Monday Night Football from the Hunter and you won't find a more excited bunch than the Knights faithful this week. Kurt Gidley returns from injury, Danny Buderus being heralded as NSW favourite son and the return of a mighty force known as Evarn Tuimavave. It all points to a big crowd and a big win for Newcastle especially since the struggling Panthers are coming to town as losers of 3 in a row.

Make that 4. Whilst Panthers coach Ivan Cleary makes a few changes in an attempt to shake his team out of its attacking funk, it is his defence that will be left with more questions to answer. The Knights strike power finally starts to reach its potential as the likes of Uate and Boyd see more of the ball and cause havoc on the right side. Tough times for the boys from Penrith; they have not scored a premiership point since March 31. A test of their character here.

My tip: Newcastle 25-6

for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Paully's Picks - Round 8 (part 1)

St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters

30,000 tickets already sold; the upper decks of Allianz stadium opened up; hated rivals; the Last Post. Goose bumps.

One of the best modern day Rugby League traditions celebrates its 10 year anniversary as the annual Anzac Day match between the Dragons and the Roosters kicks off round 8. As always, the 4pm start gives punters plenty of time to celebrate the most important day in our great nation’s calendar before getting stuck into the footy. So, we honour all of the Diggers who fought so bravely, we take a moment for those who never made it home and we save a special thank you for those who came back injured.

Then, we settle in for the pre-game ritual and get set to enjoy watching 34 blokes knock the stuffing out of each other. The opening 20 minutes of this match will set the standard and it's the Dragons who get their noses in front. The Hornby/Soward combination up against the Pearce/Anasta tandem will be a site to behold but it’s the former who will finish stronger. Jamie Soward in particular has a point to prove and will do so with the able assistance of his forwards. Saints too good.

My tip: Dragons 19-6

Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors

Your Anzac Day double header continues from AAMI Park in Melbourne as the Storm continues their rivalry against the Warriors. Both teams coming off impressive wins; the Warriors put 40 on the Bunnies while the Storm played an almighty game against the 'Dogs, winning by a try. This is a danger game for the Warriors as they face a team built to defend their try line at any cost and led by the best players on the planet.

Add a touch of revenge to the home side's motivation after last year's semi-final defeat and the Warriors are in trouble. They will struggle to stop the NRL's best attack, they will struggle to crack the NRL's best defence and they will struggle to cover the 6.5 start given by the bookies. So, if your pockets are bulging from any two-up success, or they are empty after a tough day out, it’s Melbourne by plenty. Cooper Cronk the standout as he and Cameron Smith basically toy with their opposition.

My tip: Melbourne 36-12

Paully's Picks - Rep Weekend

New Zealand v Australia

Selection Saga? For those of us with a long memory, this kind of drama is old hat. We've seen the likes of Tonie Carroll play for Queensland, Australia and the Kiwis; we remember the Nathan Fien fiasco, we've watched Greg Inglis choose to play for the Maroons simply because he likes them better and now this - James Tamou being bounced around like a chess piece in the most boring game of chess you've ever seen; and judging by how much the Rugby League community loves its chess, that is saying something. Or is this drama really nothing?

Indeed it is. The Tamou issue will be settled when he enters the game from the interchange bench after 25 minutes, plays for 10 and then sits back down. Meanwhile, a real chess match will be played out with the likes of Smith, Cronk, Marshall, Johnson and Billy Slater all moving into position for an entertaining start to the representative season.

The Kiwis have amassed an impressive backline with phenoms Josh Hoffman and Shaun Johnson making their test debuts with plenty of experience around to help. They will need it. Tim Sheens will start by sending a mountain of traffic towards Johnson and when the youngster has seen enough of Paul Gallen and Dave Taylor, he and the Kiwis will have nothing left. The Kangaroos grind this one out at Eden Park with Cooper Cronk the standout. A number of juicy matchups in what should be a close one until the Australians pull away late.

My tip: Australia 24-12

Country Origin v City Origin

Whether we are talking about the merits of its existence or whether this fixture has purpose as a State of Origin trial, pay no mind. Rather the focus of this match on Sunday afternoon should be the lovely people of Mudgee and the resurgence of Country Rugby League. With inferior codes determined to destroy our regional breeding grounds, the work done by the NRL in Mudgee this week has been tremendous and long may it be continue.

Also, trying to understand the selections and how they relate to NSW jumpers is confusing the hell out of me so I've chosen to ignore it and focus on footy.

So, with the Country team set as mid-week favourites and boasting a superior forward pack, halves combo and backline, I'd say they have every chance. Having the Morris twins in such good form and Todd Carney showing all kinds of class this year, the boys from the bush will win and win well. Keep an eye on Michael Weyman as he reminds NSW selectors why he is one of the best and as always in City v Country, there is a surprise performer who shines unexpectedly... This year, if he gets time on the field, Mitchell Allgood is my pick as he shows why club form gives no guarantees for rep form.

My tip: Country 30-18


for live updates over the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Pistol Pete's Lock of the Week - Round 7

"Very dissapointed with the lock of the week not coming through last round. The Brisbane side is very drilled and the routine of playing every friday night is evident in the way they start the game. That and a couple of injuries was the difference. In saying that the Tigers should have come out stronger given the 'soft in the middle' comments.

The Dragons had everything to play for last week, Soward's origin jersey, baby brother local derby, still in the shadow of Bennett and they came away without scoring any points. This is evident of a team that has not won a legitimate grand final since 1979.

 
The Knights travel to WIN Jubilee after one of their worst performances of the season. The Eels just seem to have the abiity to drag teams down to their level, the Eels are the heroine addicts of the NRL. Bennett will lift the Knights, he demands commitment from his players, professionalism on the field and putting the club and team first. What makes him a great coach is that his players respond and provide that level commitment, which more than makes up for his lack of strategy and attacking game plans.

The Knights take the two points out at WIN in this rounds lock of the week"

Paully's Picks - Round 7

Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders

A phenomenal amount of talent on the field in your round 7 opener on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium. Both sides boasting a truckload of graduates from the National Youth Competition as the future looks bright for the Broncos and the Raiders alike. Unfortunately for the Green Machine, they do not have a Time Machine and will be forced to take their lumps from a superior Brisbane forward pack. The short turnaround from last Sunday's game won't help either.

Whilst the Raiders demolished their opposition last week, they will struggle to find the same holes opening up and will struggle to protect their line against some of the best athletes in the NRL. The likes of Hoffman and Norman will prove too classy but the big difference will be up front. The Raiders big boys won't be able to keep up. Speaking of keeping up, watch for a mismatch out wide if Justin Hodges gets enough possession. He could put Jarrod Croker in a hole for 80 painful minutes.

My tip: Brisbane 30-12

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights

Match of the round from Kogarah on Friday night and what a beauty it will be. Perhaps not for those of you who like to see a try every 5 minutes, but for footy fans with an appreciation for solid defence and passionate play, look no further. There will be some feeling in this one. If not from the 34 men on the field, then most definitely from the increasingly agitated army of Saints fans who will pack Jubilee Oval and find their angry voices.

They've been through plenty of late, have the Red V faithful. Their emotional leader announcing his retirement, scoring zero points against their hated rivals last week and just when you though they couldn’t get any more pissed off, Darius Boyd is coming to town with his fellow Rugby League mercenary, Mr Wayne Bennett. Saints respond to last week's shut-out and to the desperate plea from their fans to beat the Knights for the second time this season.

My tip: St George Illawarra 18-12

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs

Melbourne's win over the Cowboys in Townsville last week has everyone shaking in their footy boots. It appears that talk in the Rugby League community is not about whether the Storm will win or not… but by how much. Well, as always, the bookies have an answer. The Bulldogs travel to AAMI Park on Saturday afternoon with an 8.5 start and if Des Hasler and his men don't bring their best, things could get ugly.

They do. Whilst nobody has had more success against the Storm than Hasler, his best laid plans will not be enough to overcome a rampant home side. Firstly, because the 'Dogs are lacking some on-field direction without Trent Hodkinson and secondly, because Melbourne are awesome. Cooper Cronk teaches the visiting halves a lesson and while we are on the subject of lessons, keep an eye on Cameron Smith taking his opposite number to school, again.

My tip: Melbourne 22-4

Manly Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans

The reigning premiers celebrated their return to Fortress Brookvale last Monday night with a comprehensive thumping of the Panthers. It seemed like they were happy to be back and the Sea Eagles fans left no doubt that they were downright ecstatic to have them back. If home ground advantage was not enough to lock in a win for Geoff Toovey's men, having the Titans coming to town on Saturday surely will.

John Cartwright must be a broken man as he watches week after week of lousy defensive lines, bruised backsides and a horrible, bloody trail of broken dreams. So, I guess now is a good time to debut a new five eighth in Aidan Sezer. The prize recruit from Belmore gets his first shot at the big time and what better way to bust your cherry than getting beat at Brooky. The nightmare continues for the Titans.

My tip: Manly 30-12

Sydney Roosters v North Queensland Cowboys

What a lovely time of year for a holiday to the Northern Territory and what better way to advertise the Greatest Game of All. The Roosters and the Cowboys head to something called TIO Stadium on Saturday night and the people of Darwin will be treated to a good 10 minutes of quality football before both forward packs fall apart in the heat, or from a tropical storm. Whichever gets them first; but count on both as the forecast basically says hot… and wet.

Speaking of which... the Roosters are hot - winners of 4 from 6 so far this season and the Cowboys are not - losing by 30 to the Storm at home last week; but if anyone can acclimatise to this type of away game, it is Jonathan Thurston and the Cowboys. They handle the conditions and win ugly. Keep an eye on Tariq Sims and JWH crossing paths in this match. Not sure if TIO Stadium can handle the collision... Seriously, the grand stand does not look structurally sound.

My tip: North Queensland 16-14

  

New Zealand Warriors v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Your Sunday triple header kicks off at noon Sydney time from Mt Smart Stadium with the struggling Warriors desperate to recover from a shellacking in our nation’s capital last week. The New Zealand defence, it must be said, was not up to the standard we have come to expect from such a talented side and especially not from a team that was 1 win away from premiership glory only 6 short months ago. Pressure is building.

The Bunnies, on the other hand, are winners of two in a row and looking back on those two victories, Greg Inglis was the difference in both games. His miracle field goal against the Tigers... and his phenomenal work under pressure last week. The confidence is building at Redfern and it travels with them to Auckland as Souths come away with a hard earned two points. GI the difference again and the Warriors are left with some questions to answer.

My tip: South Sydney 24-18

 

Cronulla Sharks v Parramatta Eels

There is no way I can jump off the bandwagon now. After grabbing hold of the Sharks momentum to carry me to tipping glory for the past 2 weeks, the one time I won't be letting go is this week against the Parramatta Eels. Cronulla's forwards are firing and apparently, they are a very close bunch down in the Shire. It shows in their defence as they hold the NRL’s best record in that department and are winners of 4 in a row.

The Eels, by contrast, have the worst defensive record in the comp and to rub salt in the wound, they are now under fire from former players about their eating habits, but we won't get into that here; these previews are much too classy... So, Jeff Robson continues his resurgence and will repay the team that let him go by destroying them while his replacement at halfback for the Eels will apparently destroy the kiosk inventory at Toyota Stadium.

My tip: Cronulla 20-12

Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers

The embattled Tigers come into this game on the back of 5 straight losses. The Panthers, meanwhile, failed to trouble the scorers at Brookvale Oval last week. Not exactly the greatest Battle of the West we've ever seen but you can bet desperation will be the order of the day at Centrebet Stadium on Sunday afternoon. A half point start means the bookies don't have a clue who might win this one and judging by their performances, neither do the players.

The one thing we do know is that they probably won't be troubling the scorers come September and as rumours continue to swirl around about team unity, it's Wests with more at stake. The bounce of the ball suddenly turns towards Benji and the Tigers fans can turn their frowns upside down. Hate to be nasty, but the most exciting thing about this game is that they announce the rep teams after full time. A wonderful time of year is upon us.

My tip: Wests 18-16

for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Pistol Pete's Lock of the Week - Round 6

"I think that the Eels will go on a run, Hayne will hit some form and destroy the Bennett defensive style. The problem that I have is that the lock of the week code prevents me from naming the Eels in back to back weeks. Perhaps if this was a "shoe in" of the week and published on a lessor blog, I would put the Eels up. That being said taking the Eels this week in a multi is a good bet.

The rugby league season is too long, any team can win on any given day depending on attitude, commitment, discipline and intensity. Skill comes into play during the play offs where the previous attributes are must have's. The fundamental question is how does a coach maintain the winning characteristics in his team 8 months out from the play offs? The answer is simple, league players on the whole are simple, give them an inspirational speech, challenge their manhood.

 What better motivation than being called soft in the middle, humiliating your captain, having a four game losing streak and being linked to a possible Willie Mason signing can you possibly come up with? The Tigers will run rampage over the Bronc's this week, thats my lock of the week".

Paully's Picks - Round 6, 2012

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bulldogs

A Friday afternoon belter kicks off your Easter weekend in style as the Bunnies host the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium. Big games like this bring out the best in the best and look no further than Michael Ennis to be chomping at the bit for his 150th NRL appearance. There are no doubt some players on the Rabbitohs roster who have not heard Ennis sledge his way through 80 minutes so be ready for the incumbent origin hooker to remedy that.

In other news, there is an actual game of football being played here and it will be the match of the round. A true rivalry as these storied clubs play against each other for the 143rd time and there will be no love lost. The edge goes to the 'Dogs with Frank Pritchard and Josh Reynolds the standouts. However, all eyes should be focussed directly on the opposing fullbacks as Ben Barba and Greg Inglis re-define the position altogether.

My tip: Canterbury 24-20

Wests Tigers v Brisbane Broncos

Not much left to be said about the Tigers as footy fans continue to wait for the preseason premiership favourites to make their inevitable run. I'm done waiting and no doubt League Unlimited readers are done hearing about so-called wretched performances and disappointed fans. So let's talk Broncos instead: A five/eighth that is coming-of-age quicker than expected and a hooker coming off his best performance in first grade.

Corey Norman and Andrew McCullough might be the early surprises for some, but when it comes to the Broncos, their forward pack is delivering no surprises. Matt Gillett is everyone's tip as a future megastar and Alex Glenn looks like a young Bradley Clyde mixed with an old Ruben Wiki. So, before I sign off as president of the Broncos fan club, the Tigers may fight hard with their backs against the wall but it won't matter.

My tip: Brisbane 22-14

Gold Coast Titans v Sydney Roosters

The only joy coming out of the Gold Coast at this point is the performance of Nate Myles. Not only for the Titan's themselves, but also for my NRL fantasy team. He continues to perform admirably under what must be difficult circumstances. The boys from Robina have injury problems now, to add the list, and won't find things any easier as the 3 and 2 Roosters come to town but this is where Nate will find an extra gear.

Playing against his former club and specifically, the former teammates who decided to axe him from the squad in 2011, Myles will turn up to Skilled Park on Saturday afternoon as a man possessed. Let's hope the fans turn up as well because this game will have a little extra niggle. The Roosters have an edge according the bookies and on paper, the bookies would be right but this is where the Titans find their resolve and follow the lead of their Queensland Origin second rower. Upset.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-18

Cronulla Sharks v St George Illawarra Dragons

Local derby’s like this one at Toyota Park on Saturday night are the reason we need less talk about the Sydney market and less talk from the experts about "too many Sydney teams". Those of us born and raised on a diet of NSWRL and suburban rivalries need more of these matches. We need more respect for history and more reasons to hate our fellow Sydneysiders. In turn we will reward those who give us more by spending our hard-earned to see these games.

If you don't care about any of the above gibberish - then tune in any way to see a top shelf game of football with two teams hell-bent on winning. The Sharks are learning to believe in themselves and the Dragons have not lost any of their swagger. I'm getting back on the train to Cronulla and tipping them based on the outstanding play of Jason Bukuya and Paul Gallen. The Todd Carney v Jamie Soward matchup an absolute highlight.

My tip: Cronulla 14-12

Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

Easter Sunday from Canberra Stadium and you can bet David Furner and his men will be keen to atone for a lacklustre performance at home last Monday night. Atonement seems a common theme in season 2012 as clubs continue to bounce back after a poor showing, continue to cause upsets and continue to destroy my dreams of ever winning a tipping comp. Sorry, this is not about me... this is about the Raiders.

The Green Machine will bounce back. Their opening 20 minutes will be key as the visiting Warriors struggle out of the blocks. Campese and co make them pay early but more importantly, the Raiders defence will be a damn site more resilient. It will have to be because if they give Johnson, Maloney and Mateo as much ball as they gave Thurston, we could have a massacre on our hands. Raiders get the chocolates, and the eggs.

My tip: Canberra 30-22

Newcastle v Parramatta

What to make of the Mighty Eels. . . . For those of you who believe in a resurrection on Easter Sunday, the story of Parramatta's 2012 season might be right up your alley. Losers of four straight, rumours of infighting within the team, a coach under pressure... and then the rising... A club stalwart announces his end of year retirement, a superstar returns and suddenly all hope is not lost. They beat the defending premiers at home.

So, Doubting Thomas is proven wrong and Eels fans see the light. But beware my very good friends west of the city, you now must travel north. Pilgrims in an unholy land. The Newcastle Knights await and a week after being blown off the park in Melbourne, you can bet the home side will be ready on Sunday afternoon at Hunter Stadium. In fact, more than ready.... The Knights combinations finally start to produce points and the Eels revival is cut short.

My tip: Newcastle 18-6

North Queensland Cowboys v Melbourne Storm

Whilst the Storm have been scoring a bunch of points this year, it is defence that once again stands out as the foundation of their success. Commitment of this kind is a sign that Melbourne, again, are the benchmark for season 2012 and again, the team to beat. Speaking of beating them, the Cowboys will be confident on Sunday night at Dairy Farmers Stadium after performing well on the road last week - and they will need to be.

Confidence, mixed with good luck, resolute defence, big games from their superstars, perhaps the Cowboys can....... blah blah blah... Melbourne too good. The home side’s forwards will give it everything they have and at times get the better of the Storm pack, but Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith simply have too much class and patience. A low scoring match with few opportunities as two of the NRL's best teams go head to head.

My tip: Melbourne 18-14

Manly Sea Eagles v Penrith Panthers

Monday Night Football from Brookvale Oval. On a public holiday and with the home team on a 3 game losing streak, you'd expect the Northern Beaches faithful to turn up in their droves. For anyone not supporting Manly; who cares?!? At 7pm on Monday night, most of us will be wondering where the time has gone. Why is the Easter break over already? Do we really have to go back to work tomorrow?

Rhetorical nonsense aside, you can bet a spirited Sea Eagles team will turn up and the opening exchanges will be vicious. This is where Manly get over the top of their guests and when DCE and a healthy Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai make the difference. The Panthers are improving slowly in all areas this season but not enough to overcome an angry group from the insular peninsula, determined to get back on track.

My tip: Manly 22-16



For live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php