Paully's Picks - Round 8, 2014

St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters

An exceptional tradition started 12 years ago that has now turned into a highlight of the entire season. The Dragons against the Roosters on Anzac Day and what a short and stunning history it has been. Saints lead the 12 match series 8 wins to 4 but were crushed last year by the eventual premiers. This time around, Saints are vastly improved, having won 4 games already compared to 2013’s horrifying total of 7.

The defending premiers are not excused, even after last week’s win at Remondis Stadium. Their kicking game needs a re-boot (hold your applause) and their go-forward is stuck in reverse (wait a second). Worse than any of these issues is their attack; The Roosters are averaging 11 points per game over the past month and this simply won’t fly (thank you, and don’t forget to try the veal). Saints are your upset of the week with Trent Merrin playing his 100^th first grade match.

My tip: Dragons 24-22

 

Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors

A battle between the two worst defensive teams in the competition, statistically speaking. The Storm’s much publicised woes continue on the back of their 3^rd loss in 4 matches but you won’t find any sympathisers north of the Murray River and Craig Bellamy won’t be looking for any. He won’t need anyone’s help to realise his defence is on the brink of collapse and it’s not because of missing personnel. Something has changed with the most successful club of the last decade.

Can the Warriors exploit this turmoil in their opponent’s defensive line on Friday night at AAMI Park? No. The visitors may still have a spark in them but won’t be able to sustain it over 80 minutes. Melbourne have been competitive in every game Cameron Smith has played this year. Smith will keep the Storm involved for 60 minutes and the Warriors will implode from there. Manu Vatuvei v Sisa Waqa a highlight out wide in front of a near sell-out crowd.

My tip: Melbourne 28-20

 

Brisbane Broncos v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Suncorp Stadium on a Friday night and just as you feel more national pride than you’ve ever felt before, this game will pop up on your TV and ruin your day just a tiny little bit when ‘Bolts’ Hadley gets the call. Brisbane v Souths to round out your Anzac Day triple header and from here on, we’ll focus on the positives. Souths have won 2 from their last 3 and defended very well in all three matches. They were the better team for 65 minutes last week and will take that form to Brisbane.

The Broncos bounced back from a tough loss to the Titans a fortnight ago by clinically destroying the Knights at Hunter Stadium. Not easy to do. If they are any chance at beating Souths, they’ll need to replace Sam Thaiday’s missing cover defence; an area where he has been magnificent. This will be a grind with both teams defending well but if anyone can break the shackles, it will be the likes of Greg Inglis and Ben Barba. A beauty from Brisbane with Souths scraping home.

My tip: Souths 19-18

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Penrith Panthers

Saturday afternoon footy comes to you from Remondis Stadium with the bottom-of-the-table Sharks hosting the Panthers. Cronulla did all they could last week but still came up empty against the Roosters. Another frustrating year for the boys from the Shire but with their team looking more and more like a first grade squad, things might be looking up. Jeff Robson, Paul Gallen and Todd Carney all now with some match fitness to try and stop the slide.

The Sharks have 1 win from 7 starts but this stat will mean nothing when the Panthers arrive. Ivan Cleary’s squad has been the picture of inconsistency this year, as is often the case when fielding a brand new spine, and will struggle to knock off the home side in this one. Cronulla get their second win of the season through improved performances from their forwards and big games from ex-Panthers Wade Graham and Michael Gordon.

My tip: Cronulla 18-14

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels

The Cowboys have two options from here, don’t they? Either spend their week wondering why they find themselves bent over a barrel every year, with the referees carrying a very big stick… or simply control what they can and get on with the season. Coach Paul Green seems to be pointing his team towards the latter, by dropping his halfback for this match against the Eels. This might mean he doesn’t think the referees are to blame, just his 7.

And by gum, if anyone knows, Green would. Ray Thompson comes in for Robert Lui to shore up the home side’s defence and fingers crossed for Cowboys fans, this works. They’ll need something positive to happen and they just might get it. Whilst Parramatta continue to surprise this year, travelling to Townsville after a brutal Monday afternoon match might be too much to ask. The Cowboys bounce back and avoid a third straight loss.

My tip: North Queensland 24-18

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Saturday night from Sydney Olympic Park has the NRL’s form team, the Bulldogs, hosting the Knights. You can bet coach Des Hasler has watched plenty of video in preparation for this match, with Wayne Bennett’s team beating the ‘Dogs three times last year, including an elimination semi-final where the visitors crushed Canterbury into the ANZ Stadium turf. This year brings a different mentality for the Bulldogs.

They sit atop the table with the league’s best defence, the league’s best for-and-against and an NRL best 4 game winning streak. Get ready for 80 minutes of niggling as three of the best in the business square off against each other. None better than Mick Ennis who will be in the ear of fellow pest, Beau Scott for as long as he can while ably supported by a flourishing protégé in Josh Reynolds. The natives could get restless and by jobe we hope they do. Dogs by a nose in a physical encounter.

My tip: Canterbury Bankstown 18-16

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders

The mighty Eagles have won 4 from their past 5 with the only loss coming from that ambush at Leichhardt Oval. This group keeps finding ways to win when they have certainly not been the better team and now, they host the Canberra Raiders on Sunday afternoon at Brookvale Oval. Your match of the round and if you don’t believe me, don’t worry – simply tune in to see the Eagles backline, even without last week’s MoM, Kieran Foran. Ridiculous.

If that’s not enough to keep you entertained; stand by for a classic battle of hard hitting forwards up front in this match with the veteran combination of Brett White and Dave Shillington tackling the much less experienced Josh Starling and Brenton Lawrence. It will be a beauty and if the heavens open as predicted, this match will be more violent and a lot closer than the odds suggest. If Manly hold on to the pill, they have too many weapons out wide.

My tip: Manly 20-16

 

Wests Tigers v Gold Coast Titans

Round 8 comes to a close from Sydney’s inner west on Sunday afternoon and there is no better advertisement for the romance of a suburban rugby league ground than Leichhardt Oval. The Tigers have won 7 from their past 10 at this ground including some very big upsets and this week, they get the Titans. John Cartwright’s men lost their first match in 5 weeks last Monday at Penrith and will be struggling with their second away game in 6 days.

This puts Wests as very slight favourites with the bookies but it will be a close one. More than this, it will be another test for the Tigers new and improved forward pack. They’ve been the talk of the town so far this season but this reputation will face its biggest challenge on Sunday. The likes of Greg Bird, Nate Myles and Luke Douglas are as tough as they come so get ready for some fireworks. This forwards battle will decide the winner and the home side has the edge.

My tip: Tigers 21-20

Paully's Picks - Round 7, 2014

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

So much history. 147 games of history, actually, behind this Good Friday blockbuster between and Bulldogs and the Bunnies and what better way to start your Easter long weekend.  They've played some great games and had some great players. Bob McCarthy’s intercept try in the 1967 Grand Final was a story told at my dinner table growing up and there have been plenty more chapters added to the rivalry between these proud Sydney clubs.

More recently, the Good Friday match has become another wonderful new tradition. Your humble previewer would love to talk more about this recent history, alas he was apparently refused entry at the after-match drinks last year, which gives you an idea of his performance at the actual match. The Bulldogs attack not good enough to trouble Souths defence for long enough in this one. Keep an eye on Greg Inglis, the glue that sticks the bunnies together. GI the difference again here.

My tip: South Sydney 18-12

 

Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos

The Knights looked like their old selves in Canberra last week. Stingy without the ball and very frugal with it. No, I didn’t just call the Newcastle Knights a bunch of tight arses; rather they play a conservative style of football modelled around their defence. Thank Christ for Jarrod Mullen, whose deft touches with the football last week were a pleasure to watch. Mullen returned from injury last week and the difference was immediate.

This week, after he’s signed a brand new, 4 year deal, Mullen will again be the spark that turns this Knights team from the banal to the watchable. The Broncos, still learning how to succeed with the Ben Hunts and Ben Barbas of the world, will be desperate here. After destroying the Dragons in Wollongong they’ve lost two heartbreakers but unfortunately a trip to Hunter Stadium on Friday night aint the right cure for a broken heart.

My tip: Newcastle 20-18

 

Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys

Your Good Friday triple header finishes with the mighty Eagles hosting the well-travelled and exhausted Cowboys from Central Coast Stadium. The boys from Townsville have not won a game away from 1300 SMILES Stadium this year to continue a trend that has plagued them forever. This week, the long trip to Gosford will see them undone again and will have critics wondering why the greatest halfback in the league can’t help change this dreaded curse.

Manly have plenty of weapons. When they play to their potential, this team has it all and won’t be messing around again after bludging their way through the second 40 minutes of last week’s net session against the Sharks. The return of Jorge Taufua has made the Eagles look even more dangerous and they should run away with this match in the last quarter. A test of character for the Cowboys here but they fall just short against Manly, again.

My tip: Manly 22-18

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors

Saturday afternoon at 5.30 from Kogarah’s famous Jubilee Oval and the red V faithful may still be furious. They might take more than a week to simmer down after the mess that occurred last Monday night in Melbourne but more importantly, it’s the players who’ll need to re-focus more. The Warriors were gallant in defeat against Canterbury last week and showed signs that they have not forsaken 2014 just yet.

The Dragons better take them seriously; and they will. The leadership they are getting from Gareth Widdop this year has been astounding. He does not sit still for one moment, always barking at his forwards and organising his backs, Widdop will again lift his teammates to new heights and will be ably supported by Josh Dugan behind him and an ever improving pack of forwards in front him. This last point is the difference. The Warriors big men won’t be able to keep up.

My tip: Dragons 32-18

 

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Sydney Roosters

8-0, 9-8 and then 14-12; these are the last 3 losing score lines for the defending premiers. Has it been raining for that long over the Chooks? Has the dark cloud of a premiership hangover hovered so squarely over them that they can’t fight their way out? Can I spend an entire ‘column’ asking questions without answering them? No. But the Roosters need to worry about some other questions right now. Have they got what it takes to bounce back?

They travel to the depths of the Shire to try and answer this question and the Sharks won’t make it easy. They’ve never been a walkover at home and this week, their defence better not be. The Chooks will come out swinging and should direct all their attack towards Cronulla’s bumbling backline. The likes of RTS, SKD and Mick Jennings have a huge advantage over their opposite numbers here. If the Roosters halves cannot take advantage of this mismatch, they’ll deserve even more criticism.

My tip: Roosters 24-20

 

Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm

In the space of a month, the Melbourne Storms famous defence has opened up like the Yarra to allow an average of over 25 per game. Just stop and think about that for a second… This puts them second worst in the league, defensively, and what’s more shocking is that in the past three weeks they’ve allowed a whopping 92 points. Had enough? I haven’t – they’ve lost their last two games at home and something has gone horribly wrong.

Why? Could it be the end of the dynasty? Is the wretched, stinking, soul destroying wrestling tactic a thing of the past? If so, has it been carrying this team of superstars over the past 8 years? My exaggerations aside, if Melbourne can’t plug the many holes in their defensive line, the Raiders could have a field day on Sunday afternoon in the national capital. They’ll be out for revenge after last year’s 60 point defeat to Melbourne and since I got that tip wrong, I’ll go with the Storm to keep Canberra winless at home.

My tip: Melbourne 30-24

 

Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers

You’ve never heard such overwhelming love for a Wests Tigers forward pack. The compliments just keep flowing in and it comes as a huge surprise to league fans, considering the Tigers brand has long been known for its razzle dazzle approach to Rugby League. Well, whether this reputation was true or not, the likes of Galloway, Woods, Adam Blair and their reserves are now in charge at Tiger Town and their reputation is now built on brawn.

This weekend, it will certainly need to be because they have about 20 years’ worth of brain sitting on the sideline. With Braith Anasta suspended and Robbie Farah injured, Wests will struggle to turn any field position into points. They will struggle with cohesion through their spine and will not be able to match Parra for the full 80 minutes. The Eels continue their resurgence and hold off a spirited but undermanned Tigers outfit.

My tip: Parramatta 20-12

 

Penrith Panthers v Gold Coast Titans

Ivan Cleary still seems to be thinking long term, by the looks. He seems to be suffering youngsters like Josh Mansour, who played the worst game of his short career last week at home against the Bunnies. He remains persistent with Peter Wallace, who struggled to point his team in the right direction last week; even with so much possession handed to him in the early stages by the fumbling Rabbitohs. Where to from here, for the Panthers?

 A tough loss. They did not measure up last Friday and this week they face the table topping Titans to close out your Easter weekend and the pressure will be on. The Titans have surely tricked more punters than they have scored points. Their negative differential may look odd sitting atop the premiership but the other columns say 5 wins and 1 loss. Their defence has been great when it needs to be and it will be again here. The Panthers attack is still working itself out.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-16