My Final Blog Post; Paully's Picks - 2014 NRL Grand FInal.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Sunday’s decider is a throwback from the far reaches of history; from the depths of the cavernous halls of NSW Rugby League headquarters on Phillip Street; from its oldest archives with the dustiest books that preserve the long forgotten stories of our code. Ladies and gentleman, your 2014 Grand Final. The South Sydney Rabbitohs, since 1908, famous for being treated like mud after so long hailed as the ‘pride of the league’ – against the mighty Bulldogs, since 1935, the family club, the dogs of war, the entertainers.

Nothing re-captures the overlooked cultural cradle of rugby league more than our Sydney teams and their rivalries. The Bulldogs and the Eels have it; the Bulldogs and the Dragons have it; the Bulldogs and the Roosters have it. See any trends? More recently, since their resurgence, South Sydney have found an old hatred for Canterbury returning to the surface. Excellent. Not only is this is a traditional Sydney battle, but the fact that they are squaring off in a decider will solidify it as a wonderful rivalry for the next 10 years.

This week, however, there is something very special to play for, more than pride and hatred. Souths have had a magnificent season. They are, statistically, the best defensive unit in the NRL and have the nastiest pack of forwards this side of the 80s. Since losing to the Roosters in round 26, they’ve shown the maturity of a team that has learnt from two years of September losses. They’ve saved their best for the finals. A dominant performance to destroy both of last year’s Grand Finalists in the past two matches and even without Issac Luke in the squad for the decider, their machine knows no stopping.

The only thing that might stop them is a coach with a game plan that neutralises their size and ruck tactics. I’ll let you pick one. Des Hasler? Check. A month ago, Canterbury had no business playing September football. Now, boasting the scalps of Melbourne, Manly and the Panthers, they find themselves 80 minutes away from shocking the world. With an injured captain in Mick Ennis (anyone else get the feeling he is fine?), a hobbled halfback in Trent Hodkinson, an enigmatic five eighth in Josh Reynolds and a makeshift fullback in Sam Perrett, this is gonna be tough.

So, with Souths as heavy favourites, you can bet they’ll be clinical, focussed and well directed. We’ve heard them talk of following their ‘processes’ but you can bet Hasler and Jim Dymock have been formulating a plan to mess up this ‘process’ and when they do, Souths will need to react wisely. On Sunday night, as opposed to last year, they will. Quality leadership from Sam Burgess, Adam Reynolds and the gift to Redfern that is Greg Inglis will see the Bunnies overcome anything the Bulldogs can throw at them. They should be too strong in the last 15 minutes.

My tip: South Sydney 19-12

Clive Churchill Medallist tip: Greg Inglis

Paully's Picks - 2014 Grand Final Qualifiers

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Roosters

The game of the season. Friday night at Sydney Olympic Park and you won’t want to miss this. The reigning premiers, minor premiers and team of stars up against their oldest, biggest and most hated rivals. The Roosters have done it all in the NRL; a glamour club with an abundance of recent success and probably the most powerful club when it comes to influencing the officials at NRL headquarters. Souths are nearly their complete opposite.

The Bunnies are the dirty little brother that has made their way back from the brink of extinction and built themselves up from being bullied by the older sibling for the last 20 years. Well, if you wanna pick a fight with the ‘pride of the league’ these days, you better be ready for swift reprisals as they boast some of the toughest footballers in the NRL. The Burgess boys, Issac Luke, GI and a bench that looks like a prison inmate list. Better watch your back.

The Roosters won’t be hiding though. With the likes of Sam Moa in career best form, Frank Paul Nuuausala coming off the bench and the other usual suspects, the Chooks middle is anything but soft and they will meet their opponents with force. The forward battle, as always, will decide this one and when the Bunnies’ pack gets on top after an enthralling battle, they won’t lose focus as they have done in previous years. Souths have fallen short in the Finals for the past two seasons and now, they’ve learnt their lesson.

The difference being one Luke Keary. Souths have been tagged as predictable by everyone who thinks their opinion counts for something, including the ‘writer’ of these weekly ‘previews’ on LU. Now, they look mature and diverse. When Adam Reynolds is finished pinning the Chooks down in their own half with an all-pro kicking game, the Rabbitohs creative side will be unleashed. John Sutton becoming ball player and Keary sneaking around without being detected. That, and the almighty force that is Greg Inglis should see them home in a battle for the ages.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16

 

Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your second GF qualifier is a tantalizing prospect. Saturday night from ANZ Stadium and you better be ready for a nail biter. The Panthers, ravaged by injury and without the aid of any representative footballers on their current roster, somehow, are 80 minutes away from the big one. The Bulldogs, written off by the rugby league community when they finished the season with 7 losses from 9 games, have somehow found themselves favourites to make the GF here and on paper, have all the weapons to make it happen.

But the wrinkle in this equation in the unbelievable ability of Ivan Cleary to have his players ready to run a game plan, and his uncanny nous to make them better footballers. The likes of Matt Moylan, Dean Whare, Jamie Soward and James Segeyaro have had magnificent seasons and will terrorise the Bulldogs’ more favoured and heralded stars. Penrith won’t make any mistakes. They won’t lose this game through poor form or errors and that puts the onus on the opposition to play just as disciplined.

Canterbury are not known for this in 2014. They destroyed the Melbourne Storm a fortnight ago with a surprise attack and last week against Manly, well, I can’t remember much about that game so I’m not sure how they pulled it off. I remember meeting my mates inside Manly’s ‘tailgate party’ in Moore Park but then it gets a bit hazy. And just quietly, my friends, that tailgate party was a fantastic idea. If only every game could have that level of ‘entertainment’.

Moving on. We’ll see the underdog Panthers control this game from the kick off with nerves of steel and great leadership from Soward who has been through his share of big games – but when the boys from Belmore turn it up a gear, the Panthers may not be able to keep up. Canterbury’s mobility in the forwards has been their advantage in the Des Hasler era. It was the reason for their success in 2012. Now, they’ve found their mojo again and will be too good in the final moments for a gallant Penrith team.

My tip: Canterbury 13-12

Paully's Picks - NRL Finals Week 2, 2014.

Sydney Roosters v North Queensland Cowboys

A pity that one of these teams won’t be involved in the next fortnight of footy after this match. The two most entertaining squads in the competition and two teams that are coached the right way and play the right way. They’ve both peaked at the right time of the season and even though the Roosters were losers last week, they will only be rejunivated from this and ready to play for their season on Friday night in front of their home fans.

Anthony MInichiello breaks the Chooks’ all time record for games played and what a mighty captain and fullback he’s been. Joining the likes of RTS, SKD and Michael Jennings, the Count and his crew make up a formidable try-scoring machine and this back line is the best in the land. The defending premiers will be thankful that they won’t be forced into a grind, like they were against the Panthers last week.

The Cowboys? Well, a great disappointment that they won’t have Tariq Sims in the squad but with Gavin Cooper and Glen Hall, they have a combined 389 first grade games to guide this team up front. These two, combined with Australia’s best in Matt Scott, won’t have any problems matching the Roosters all-star forward pack, but they will struggle defending their line against waves of tri-coloured attacks out wide.

So, be ready for a beauty with the Roosters back to form and the poor old Cowboys losing another semi-final on the road. They will defend bravely and attack the home side with their usual flair, led by the NRL’s best in Johnathan Thurston, but it will be Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney who steer the minor premiers to a showdown with the Bunnies next week.

My tip: Roosters 24-14

 

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday Night from Allianz Stadium to see who faces the Panthers next week and this will be a cracker. The opening 15 minutes should tell us how tough the Sea Eagles really are without Anthony Watmough. No question, they are a brave bunch and have been for nearly a decade, but last week, their forwards were destroyed by South Sydney and now the Bulldogs’ pack have sniffed the blood and are high on confidence.

The likes of James Graham, Aidan Tolman, Greg Eastwood and Tony Williams will be joined by former co-captain Frank Pritchard to raise hell this week. Pritchard’s triumphant return from injury could spell the end of Manly’s season. If not in the forwards, then Manly’s right side defence could also spell their doom. A corridor that was exposed last week could see Josh Morris have a field day.

Rumours of infighting and people not getting along with Queenslander and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans are running rife. However, they get one more chance to disprove these theories and perhaps salvage a legacy of champions that dates back to the Matt Orford/Steve Menzies age. Otherwise, one of the greatest dynasties we've seen in the NRL could be over. The end of an era and all that.

With this pressure on them, Manly’s defence won’t be as brittle as Canterbury’s previous opponents were in the early going last week, so this one should turn in to a good old-fashioned bar room brawl; except for the punching; just the other stuff from a bar room brawl; petticoats, piano players, blokes getting thrown over the bartender and out into the dusty street, where you've parked your horse. That sort of stuff. If Manly can kiss and make up in the dressing room before kick-off, they may get one last crack at glory and pull off a stunner. If not, the ‘Dogs march on. 

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16

Paully's Picks - 2014 FInals week 1

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Finals. What a way to kick things off with two old Sydney rivals. They’ve played each other 133 times since 1947 and fans have truly hated each other with a passion at every single one of those games. Certainly, every Souths fan I know has more than just the average Manly hatred running through their veins - it’s passed down from their rugby league ancestors. So, with the stage set for your Second Qualifying Final, we head to Bunnies’ headquarters at Allianz Stadium for Friday night footy.

No secret that the Eagles have not been at their best lately, they’ve lost 3 from their past 5 including a 20 point thumping at the hands of Souths. Ordinarily, it wouldn’t be hard to see them stepping up for the finals and changing that momentum but this year, a big ask. The Rabbitohs have been priming themselves for this battle for 3 years and with plenty of semi-final experience of their own to call on, they’ll finish stronger. Keep any eye on Luke Keary barking his way through the 80 minutes. Hilarious.

My tip: South Sydney 18-8

 

Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers

The defending premiers, minor premiers and competition favourites are your shortest price this week. They are clearly the form team of the competition and with weapons from 1 through 17, they will take some stopping this Saturday against Penrith at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers have blown minds over the past 6 weeks with some impressive performances under duress and their reward was to finish 4^th – but this is a bigger challenge for a team that has never played finals footy together.

Still – you can bet Ivan Cleary will have something special planned for the Chooks and I can’t wait to see it. This is your match of the round and one that the Panthers will keep close, right to the end. More importantly though – don’t miss the beginning – the Roosters forwards are a daunting bunch and with their beloved captain only a month away from the end of his career, they will be frothing at the mouth, champing at the bit and getting themselves a week off.

My tip: Roosters 24-12

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Bronco

Saturday night from Townsville where the Cowboys are undefeated since round 3 this year and undefeated in finals footy since forever. No doubt they will be tested here through – the Broncos have nothing to lose and will always have a little extra in the tank when playing against their Queensland rivals.  Add to this the superb form of their halfback, Ben Hunt and you have yourselves a close one with Brisbane scaring the pants off the home side for a while – but not long enough.

Johnathan Thurston, despite what the talking heads have been yapping about, is not in career best form – he has always been this good. The differences this year, for mine, are that he is not carrying a serious injury for once, and that his forwards are playing outstanding football. Of course, the two are intertwined – JTs shoulders have not had to carry the burden of 40 tackles a game. Speaking of JTs forwards, they will be the difference here with the Sims brothers, Matt Scott and future superstar Jason Taumalolo the standouts.

My tip: Cowboys 24-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Week 1 of the finals rounds out with your Second Elimination Final from AAMI Park in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon. The ‘Dogs are hobbling but worse than this, it’s tough to guess which Bulldogs team will turn up. Will it be the premiership calibre side that beat Melbourne at this very ground in round 18? Or will it be the side that slumped to its 6^th loss in 8 games against the Titans last week? Don’t answer that cos it may not matter.

The Storm don’t need to worry about form, don’t need to worry about consistency and are not confused about which personality they will play with in front of a packed house full of rabid purple pride punters. They are rightfully heavy favourites here and unless Canterbury can make adjustments to their attack, Melbourne will strangle them out of the season. The visitors have not been very creative will the ball of late and Melbourne’s defence simply won’t be tested enough.

My tip: Storm 19-12

Paully's Picks - Round 26, 2014

Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 26 and your match of the round kicks off a weekend where dreams will come true for some and Mad Monday will begin for others. Either way, rugby league can’t lose. First cab off the rank? Your match of the round and what a beauty this will be. It’s the second-best rivalry going around this weekend behind ‘rickygate’ in Canberra but we dare say this will see some better footy played.

And most of that footy will come from the Chooks. Seeing the best of Mitchell Pearce should be so rewarding for those that have stuck by him. Seeing this team play a brand of footy that is true to the spirit of the game and entertaining as well should set the example for all future coaches out there. By contrast, anyone watching Souths should watch Greg Inglis and avoid making eye contact with anything else that Souths dish out.

My tip: Roosters 16-12

 

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

If you haven’t worked out that wrestling has potentially already destroyed the greatest game of all – take a look at this match a little closer. Your Friday night neck breaker from AAMI Park in Melbourne highlights two clubs who’ve done well in the squared circle over the years. The Storm have led the way over a number of years when it comes to the old sleeper hold and should be proud of what they have ruined.

Now, ironically, to make the top 8, Brisbane need to beat the home side without their captain and best player, Sam Thaiday, after he was suspended for wrestling. Apparently the NRL can suspend people but have admitted this is not going to be a deterrent. Just wonderful stuff. Speaking of wonderful stuff, keep an eye on the two halfbacks in this match. Cooper Cronk and Ben Hunt put on a clinic.

My tip: Melbourne 19-12
 

Wests Tigers v Cronulla Sharks

Saturday afternoon from Leichhardt Oval and the rugby league puritans could not think of a better way to bid farewell to a couple of teams who’ve done it very tough this year. The Tigers kicked off the season in style, mostly, but have since come under fire because, effectively, their captain is not ‘one of the boys’. Well, Robbie certainly deserves to hit Mad Monday with style and we are sure he will.

Speaking of Mad Monday, they may as well honour what this great footy ground was built for – punters to hit the sauce very early on their weekend and continue into a happy and hazy evening on Balmain Road. If you think Farah and his crew won’t make it all the way to the Sackville, you’re kidding yourself. Cronulla may not be able to find their form of a week ago but if its form you’re after, look elsewhere.

My tip: Tigers 14-12

 

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Last time these clubs met, a round 22 special from Darwin, the Raiders led for most of the contest until Jarryd Hayne found a hole and taxied right through it. This time, Parra must leave everything on the field if they are to be any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. A huge ask for a young team with a horrific away record in 2014 and perhaps, by kick off, nothing to play for.

Look for the Raiders to dominate here as a promising season for the visitors comes to a disappointing end. A tip of the hat to Brad Arthur and his crew though, they have avoided a 19^th straight wooden spoon. Speaking of hat tipping, here’s to Brett White who plays his last NRL match and speaking of farewells, keep an eye on Canberra fans shedding more tears as they watch another all-star half leave their club. Anthony Milford, we hardly knew ya.

My tip: Raiders 30-20

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

An emotional night for the home side. Firstly, they’ll be bidding a fond farewell to retiring centre, Brent Tate and secondly, this could be the last time in 2014 where a refereeing decision goes their way. So, with the starting 17 fully recovered from the flu and their motivation reaching its peak, the Cowboys are justified favourites against Manly at 1300SMILES stadium on Saturday night.

Some fantastic matchups here. First and foremost, two quality, premiership contenders who don’t wrestle as part of their Plan A. Secondly, Johnathan Thurston against DCE. Finally and most importantly, keep an eye on the Cowboys back row outplaying the likes of Justin Horo and Tom Symonds and this is where the home side has an edge. They control the ruck and control the edges to win.

My tip: North Queensland 20-16
 

Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons

Ahh, the godfather of the wrestle, Wayne Bennett. Fingers crossed that El Capo realises what a horrible mistake he made when he first hired a wrestling coach in Brisbane all those years ago. I doubt it. Moving on, The Bennett coached Knights have had a terrible year. Unable to grasp his defensive instructions, the Wrestle, it would seem, is not part of the DNA of this great town’s footballing culture. Thank god.

So, they finish a forgettable season hosting the Dragons for old boys’ day and it will be a huge ask for the visitors to march into Mad Monday with a win here. The Knights are undefeated at home over their past 4 matches, average just under 30 points per game in attack over that span. They’ll turn it on again here and put away the Dragons after another brave effort from Paul McGregor’s men.

My tip: Newcastle 22-18

 

Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Sunday afternoon from Robina and what a place to organise your Mad Monday festivities. Firstly, you can bet John Cartwright will be a part of the fun; secondly, you can bet Dave Taylor will be falling out of beds all over the Gold Coast next week and finally, a tip of the hat to one of this ‘columns’ favourite players over the years, Luke “Bull” Bailey.

From his humble beginnings at St George-Illawarra, Bailey always looked like a leader and played like one. This is his last match and it’s only fitting that the Bulldogs’ monster pack will make sure it’s a tough one. The ‘Dogs are limping into the finals with a stuttering attack but their season long commitment to defence should get them the win here.

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16

Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors

By kick off, the Warriors will know everything they need to know so fingers crossed for the Puppets and Muppets in charge of your pay-tv broadcaster that this match is not a ‘dead rubber’, so to speak. Either way, we hope that all the Dad’s out there enjoyed their father’s day by not getting off the couch for the entire Sunday arvo triple header.

You made it, you mad bastards. So strap yourselves in for the regular season finale as the Panthers give it all they got to ensure a top 4 finish at Sportingbet Stadium in front of their loyal fans. Matt Moylan the standout again but it’s the tough-as-nails Penrith forwards who turn up to ensure another win.

My tip: Penrith 24-18

Paully's Picks - Round 25, 2014

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 25 and this one is just the tonic needed to get long suffering crowd numbers back to somewhere near respectable. The ‘Dogs hosting the Bunnies at ANZ stadium and this should be a beauty. Canterbury captain and loyal servant for 5 years, Michael Ennis, plays his final game in front of the blue and white faithful and this should spur him on to be even more annoying than usual. Issac Luke must really be looking forward to this.

Speaking of which, South Sydney fans should also be looking forward to this one after they were shown up by the Cowboys last week. The Rabbitohs come in as very heavy favourites and should be back to their best here. Which means they will slow down the play the ball and try to outmuscle the Bulldogs pack. This will be the highlight; two very big and very aggressive sets of forwards having a good crack at each other but it’s the Burgess boys and Greg Inglis standing tall.

My tip: South Sydney 18-8

 

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

Friday night footy comes to us from Suncorp Stadium, for the last goddamn time – finally. Or, at least until next year when your free-to-air broadcaster needs the ratings in Queensland and subjects us all to this diabolical scheduling stupidity. Moving on – Saints need this one to stay in the hunt, excuse the pun, and whilst they have a fantastic record up in Vegas, they will find the going very tough here as the Broncos continue their march towards a miracle spot in the 8.

I’ll spare you the ‘for and against’ jargon – but saints gotta win by plenty to be confident next week. They won’t. Whilst Brisbane have been inconsistent of late, they play a brand of footy that will keep the visitors guessing. With the extra motivation of bidding adieu to a coach who has effectively raised many of them from pups, the Broncos should be too good here. Ben Hunt and the Brisbane back row lead from the front as Saints head towards Mad Monday.

My tip: Brisbane 24-20

 

Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels

Saturday afternoon from Hunter Stadium and by rights, the Eels should walk away with this one. With their season on the line and on the back of the best 40 minutes they have played in 3 years, they should march up the M1, throttle the home side and come home with 2 points and a place in the semis. But dagnab it – something happens to the slippery Eels when they go on a road trip and by the same token, something happens to the Knights when they play at home.

The punters disagree, Parra are sitting pretty as favourites as we head into Thursday and whilst I’m not one to argue with the weight of the dollar, here I go. The Knights play their second last game of one of the worst seasons in their proud history and at home over the past 3 games, they are undefeated. The scary thing is over the last 6 games overall, they’ve given up an average of just over 30 in defence. Good purchase, Brisbane.

My tip: Newcastle 28-24

 

Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

There isn’t a marketing team in the world that can help this one but true rugby league fans (read – gamblers) will be glued to their mobile devices to watch this one. Everyone watches footy via digital pass now don’t they? Nobody wastes their money on our countries ONLY pay-tv provider anymore do they? Of course not. So, your 5.30pm game comes from GIO Stadium in Canberra as the Raiders host the Tigers and it might be a bit too cold for the visitors but things will heat up, for a few reasons.

Jarrod Croker is in a furious battle to be the seasons leading point scorer, bless him; Mitch Cornish finally gets the number 7 jersey and this will absolutely delight Raiders fans who have been begging for his promotion all season long. If these two fascinating reasons haven’t sparked your interest to beyond supernova type proportions, then there’s nothing I can do for you. Anthony Milford the standout again as the Tigers’ suffering continues.

My tip: Canberra 20-12

Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm

Saturday night from a wet and wintry Allianz Stadium and this is your match of the round. The reigning premiers host the Storm but it’s a pity nobody will be there to see it. Melbourne are peaking at the right time of year, again, and the Roosters look downright unstoppable. They are at full strength and would be a terrifying sight for anyone right now except Storm coach Craig Bellamy who’ll no doubt relish the challenge of facing the chooks so close to the playoffs.

Bellamy and the Storm may not show all their tricks on Saturday night but they’ll certainly be hoping to slow this one down to a screeching halt. Cooper Cronk plays his 250^th first grade match and as with his previous 249, he’ll be quietly and subtly sledging his way through this as only Cooper can. Keep an eye on two premiership favourites getting under each other’s skin as they jostle for position before the real matches are played in a fortnight.

My tip: Chooks 18-14
 

New Zealand Warriors v Gold Coast Titans

The Warriors were shell-shocked last week at home when the Roosters taught them a footballing lesson. Now, with another chance to sneak into the semi-finals, they’ll be battle hardened and won’t make the same mistakes again on Sunday afternoon against the visiting Titans. They are $1.15 favourites and for those of you looking for desperate measures to win a tipping comp, look elsewhere. The Titans can’t possibly mess things up here, can they?

Don’t answer that. Just tip the Warriors and be done with your dreams of jagging an upset. Be done with your dreams of sneaking one back on the blokes who’ve been leading the tipping comp all year and just cos you think they’ll play it safe and tip the favourites, doesn’t mean that shit ain’t working. I’ve really gotta stop talking to myself in these ‘previews’. The Warriors play their last home game of a difficult season and say thanks to their fans with a win.

My tip: New Zealand 28-18

 

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Penrith Panthers

Brookvale Oval on Sunday afternoon as the mighty Eagles play their last home game of the season and bid farewell to one of their favourite sons and much loved local junior, Jason King. A true warrior of the game and proud co-captain of the club, King will enjoy an emotional farewell at Brooky and his teammates will be just as passionate. Might be just the juice Manly need to get out of their current funk. Although, they’ve only lost 2 from their past 4 and are still sitting 1^st.

So…… (take a deep breath) …….. with panic not setting in anywhere except a few commentators and league writers who can’t find any good stories cos no player or coach wants to talk to them cos they are douchebags…. the Eagles continue another brilliant season and bounce back with a win here. Oh yeah, they are playing against Penrith. Expect the Panthers to start this game well and play good percentage footy but it won’t last against a rejuvenated Manly squad.

My tip: Sea Eagles 24-14

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

What can we say about the Cowboys? Well, they have the best halfback in the game but more than this, they have a halfback who is not a protected species like some of his counterparts, does not hide in the defensive line like some other halves, always plays injured, always behaves like a role model for kids and has lead his team to 5 wins from their past 6 matches. That’s right ladies and gentleman, I give you Robert Lui.

Jokes aside, Jonathan Thurston could be a future immortal and as he primes himself for another shot at the title, this match on Monday night from 1300Smiles Stadium should be nothing more than a practice run for him and his crew of weapons. What can we say about the Sharks? Well, my mates recently booked a weekend at a house on the beach at Bundeena for the upcoming summer and I can’t wait. Cowboys by a bit.

My tip: North Queensland 40-0

Paully's Picks - Round 24, 2014

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

Round 24 is here and with the jostling for positions, comes the inevitable Mad Monday discussions and they are always more exciting. The Tigers? Well, they could end up anywhere but with experienced campaigners like Robbie Farah and Keith Galloway leading the charge, it won’t be difficult to organise a pub crawl from Leichhardt to Campbelltown and back. Before this wake begins, Wests still have to face the Bulldogs for Thursday night footy.

The poor Tigers are at very long odds. With Canterbury getting their first win in eons last week, the money is coming in thick and fast for them to destroy a once mighty football team, now whimpering into the off-season. Too many injuries and too little confidence for the visitors to be any chance here. Wet weather might keep it close but the Bulldogs should control the middle early and then unleash the likes of Josh Morris and Tim Lafai.

My tip: Bulldogs 22-6

 

Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles

Friday night footy from Pirtek Stadium where the Eels have been tremendous in 2014. Now, they get a bloody good chance to prove it with none other than league leaders and long-time rivals, the Eagles come to town. This will be a beauty. Wet and wild conditions will meet the visitors and the Eels will look to get off to a flying start. Their young and talented forward pack has usually been the catalyst for this and Friday will be no different.

So, with the Eels desperate to stay in the hunt for the playoffs and with Jarryd Hayne set to sizzle once more, this is your upset of the week. All those who are vying for tipping comp victories right now – ignore me. The rest of you – have a crack at the underdogs here. Manly were tossed around a couple of weeks back by the Bunnies and they could still be shaken up. Will Hopoate facing his old crew could be the trigger he needs to get out of his current funk.

My tip: Parramatta 19-18

 

Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights

The Broncos are playing for their season here. They currently sit in 10^th position but have a decent ‘for and against’ that might be the difference. So, as we begin the inevitable discussion about mathematical possibilities to make the 8, let’s end them straight away. Even if the Broncos sneak into the finals, they will be cannon fodder for a week and then it’s on to the Wayne Bennett era, mark 2. So, fingers crossed they can have some fun along the way.

And what better way to have fun that at the expense of the Newcastle Knights. The Knights are destroying my tipping season and someone needs to sort them out. Speaking of sorting, Bennett gets a good chance to look at his players for next year and continue sorting the wheat from the chaff. I don’t really know what they phrase means but it made my point, I think. Ben Hunt continues his fantastic season and the Broncos get the chocolates.

My tip: Brisbane 28-18

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v North Queensland Cowboys

The most entertaining team to watch over the past month has certainly been the Cowboys. Winners of 4 of their past 5, averaging over 30 points in attack over that span. Granted, this statistic is slightly tainted by that Tigers match, but the Cowboys have been fantastic nonetheless. Last Monday night’s match against Penrith was an absolute cracker and North Queensland should be commended for playing footy the right way and entertaining the fans.

Which leads us to the Bunnies – winners of 5 straight and they are the form team of the comp. They won’t get the kudos for playing entertaining footy though. Rather, heading into another finals run, they find themselves answering questions about their sportsmanship. Well, these blokes have been wrestling for years and they ain’t gonna change now. So, be prepared for some mud wrestling at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night… not that kind, you animals.

My tip: South Sydney 24-14

 

New Zealand Warriors v Sydney Roosters

Sunday afternoon from Mt Smart Stadium and the Warriors are hurting. They’ve won 2 from their past 5 with those victories coming against the Raiders and Sharks. They’ve had some tough times lately with losing games to the top teams and missing Shaun Johnson for parts of this stretch. Rookie coach Andrew McFadden will have his hands full trying to right the ship this week and his chances are looking slimmer by the minute.

The Chooks are coming to town and they are bringing with them an all-star cast, a three match winning streak and an inspirational leader that has announced his retirement. The Roosters have looked more dangerous than usual since Anthony MInichiello told the Rugby League world that 2014 would be his swansong. The Warriors better be at their best but smart money says it won’t matter. A mini home-coming for the Roosters Kiwi contingent and they’ll be too good.

My tip: Roosters 22-20

 

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Canberra Raiders

With ASADA and WADA finally giving us more than NADA, it’s tough for the Sharks to go farther than playing the role of martyr. Their seasons keeps getting harder and harder and whilst I’m not a tough marker, their future is getting darker. Cronulla are braver, but cracks have appeared in their armour and fingers crossed they look sharper this Sunday and play a lot smarter against a larger forward pack and a former coach who is ever the charmer.

Moving on, your match of the round comes from Remondis Stadium in the depths of the heartbroken home of the poor old Cronulla Sharks. Speaking of heartbreak, the Raiders are coming to town for a bottom of the table clash; it’s literally 15 v 16 on the ladder. Not sure how the home side can be focussing on footy here but they’ve been dealing with this shit for two years so they’ll probably be fine. Strap yourselves in.

My tip: Cronulla 13-12

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Gold Coast Titans

Kogarah’s Jubilee Oval comes to life on Sunday afternoon in a do or die game for the red V. The mathematical equation that has been the Dragons season is, again, holding on by a thread and even though they are pronounced favourites here, it’s gonna be a tough gig. The Titans have had their own dramas with coaching changes and are now a full fortnight into life with Neil Henry. They almost knocked off the league leaders last week and will be in this up to their teeth.

Put simply, Gareth Widdop needs more ball for the Saints and if they are to sneak into the playoffs, it will be Widdop leading the charge with Benji Marshall as his lieutenant. The Titans have their own hero in Aidan Sezer who is a couple of games back from injury and will be better for it. So get set for a great battle of the halves here after two very willing packs of forwards even each other out. The Titans could mess things up a bit.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-18

 

Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm

Round 24 comes to a close from the foot of the mountains as Penrith host the Storm for Monday night footy. A cracker from Sportingbet Stadium. Somehow, the Panthers have overcome a horrific injury toll and looked like world beaters last week against the Cowboys. They will benefit again from a week at home but tough to see Jamie Soward playing two spectacular games in a row. He’ll be great, as he has been this year but the Storm should have something in store for him.

Look for Ryan Hoffman to find Soward in the defensive line, no matter how far wide he lines up. Yes, play some Benny Hill music in the background and watch Hoffman charge to all corners of the field to find the Panthers pivot. In the end, it won’t be fun for anyone as the Storm grind this one down to a screeching halt and defend their way to victory. You’ll see some desperation from Melbourne here as they are still hurting from what happened in Newcastle a fortnight ago.

My tip: Melbourne 17-16

Paully's Picks - Close the Gap Round, 2014.

A wonderful NRL initiative and the most inspiring event on the NRL calendar, Close the Gap Round not only highlights the issue around life expectancy rates amongst Indigenous Australians, but helps create cultural awareness. This weekend's purpose is best summed up by a quote from a proud member of the Dunghutti people.

Golden Boot Winner, Clive Churchill Medallist, Member of the Indigenous All Stars and NRL Premiership Winner, Greg Inglis talks to the Sydney Morning Herald about Close the Gap round, “By the time I leave this earth I want to see a big change in indigenous health and the communities around Australia”…”It is vitally important to raise awareness and truly understand what close the gap is”

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wangal people, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Seems like everyone has an opinion about Souths lately, don’t they? Apparently they are predictable, apparently this is their best chance win the competition in recent years. Blah blah blah. The ‘pride of the league’ is certainly playing some bloody good footy and that’s enough for me, for now. They’ve won 4 straight and have looked good doing it. In fact, they’ve looked a little scary since the bye week and young Luke Keary looks to have changed things on his own.

This kid wouldn’t stop barking at the Sea Eagles last week. He basically sledged Jamie Lyon for 80 minutes and by gum, it worked. That kind of bastardry will take them a long way and this week, at ANZ Stadium on Thursday night, it will get them past the Broncos. Brisbane have bounced back from some internal rumblings, it seems, and were good enough to trounce the ‘Dogs last week but it may not be enough here. Keary the standout again.

My tip: Rabbitohs 24-14

 

Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wangal people, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Plenty of talk about the eels replicating their famous 2009 run into the grand final whilst across the way, their most hated rivals might be replicating something a bit less memorable and a lot more frustrating for ‘Dogs fans. After winning 7 in a row at one point this year, holding the best defensive record in the comp and sitting atop the ladder, Canterbury have taken quite the fall and are now being shat upon from a very great height. Tough times in Belmore.

Can they turn it around? Can they lift for the most intense rivalry in the NRL? It seems a mountain to climb and you can guess why. Jarryd Hayne is enjoying himself. He was too good for the greatest origin team ever assembled and more recently he’s torn apart Titans, Sharks and Raiders in quick succession. Not exactly the NRL’s elite, but really, it’s like a backyard game of footy for the big fella and he is having a ball. Not even the possible return of Tony Williams to the halves for Canterbury will get them out of trouble here.

My tip: Parramatta 20-14

 

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Ngunnawal and Ngambri Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Saturday afternoon in the nation’s capital and this one has plenty of history – you know the drill. Saints have not won in Canberra since the Menzies Pri-Ministership, they’ve not beaten Canberra since before the GST existed and somehow, some way, they are favourites here. The only possible reason could be that the bookies pay no attention to history, or, that they’ve actually watched a Raiders game this year.

The poor Raiders. 1 win in their past 11 weeks and owners of the worst defensive record in the comp, they can only hope that Anthony Milford sees plenty of ball here. The Dragons, judging by their performance in a big match at home last week, could well oblige the Canberra pivot. They gave up possession at a frightening rate last week and if former Raiders Josh Dugan and Joel Thompson can’t rally the troops here, Saints are done for.

My tip: Canberra 21-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wurundjeri People of the Kulin Nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Saturday evening from south of the border as Cronulla head to AAMI Park to face an un-backable favourite. Good lord, the odds are long for the Sharks here as we all pray for a quick and painless end to 2014 for Paul Gallen and his crew. Speaking of Gallen, he is named to return from injury in this match and let’s hope he does.  The entertainment value of the Sharks skipper sledging his way through 80 minutes against origin rivals Smith, Slater and Cronk will be off the charts.

Speaking of entertainment, if Melbourne are serious about this one (and of course, history has shown that they are hardly ever serious after losing a match at the death), the score could be anything. Look for big games from the Storm forwards as they set the platform early. Ryan Hoffman and Kevin Proctor in particular will enjoy running at young Fa’amanu Brown and late in the second half, things could get ugly for the visitors.

My tip: Melbourne 30-6

 

Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Cadigal and Wangal peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Whatever is happening at Concord Oval this week, it won’t be enough to set things right for the embattled Tigers. A Mick Potter magic show? A Robbie Farah bonding session? Skills work? Fitness training? You just can’t see a world where the Tigers can bounce back from losing by 60 in Townsville last weekend to be ready to face the defending premiers on Saturday night. Even the ‘8^th wonder of the world’ that is Leichhardt Oval won’t get them out of trouble here.

But, somehow, you know they will try their hardest. The Tigers might be completely out-gunned at nearly every position, but you get the feeling that the players will stick together as they have done over the past few horrific weeks. If the chooks give half a stuff, they will have a field day. Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney would have noticed already that Cory Paterson and Chris Lawrence can’t keep up with Michael Jennings and SKD. And if you thought the Cowboys’ back rowers had a field day last week, watch Boyd Cordner and FPN unleash the beast here.

My tip: Roosters 32-10

 

Newcastle Knights v New Zealand Warriors

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Awabakal and Worimi Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Not again! Surely! If the Newcastle Knights somehow pull off another miracle at Hunter Stadium this weekend, I’ll pub crawl from Sydney to Newcastle for old boys’ day. For the 3 of you reading this – you’re welcome to join me. The Knights upset the reigning premiers a few games back after a week of turmoil and then, against Melbourne last week, scored two tries in the final moments to cause another unbelievable upset.

Speaking of upset, we won’t mention that Newcastle were on the right end of a 7-0 2^nd half penalty count against Melbourne but we digress. This week, they host the Warriors on Sunday afternoon and are, again, outsiders. With the visitors boasting the return of Shaun Johnson this week and the fact that they are up to their eyeballs in a race for a home semi-final, they’ll be too good here. NZ get off to a good start and hold on.

My tip: Warriors 23-16

 

Gold Coast Titans v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Yugambeh People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

And so the Neil Henry era begins for the Titans and this bloke has a CV to die for. The architect of Queensland’s Origin attack; the architect of the Titans success earlier this year, pre injury debacle; the architect of the Cowboys’ run to the semi-finals over the past two years, before diabolical officiating destroyed his career in Townsville. Now, Henry gets his shot to audition for another coaching role and his first test is a tough one.

A challenge to get his crew ready for a very angry Manly team… And they will be angry. The Eagles were effectively pushed around by Souths last week. Their forward pack looked slow and small and completely over-powered and if they are to get back to the winners circle on Sunday afternoon in Robina, it’s their pack who will have to step up. They will. Especially with DCE and Kieran Foran yelling at them for 80 minutes. Manly bounce back.

My tip: Sea Eagles 24-14

 

Penrith Panthers v North Queensland Cowboys

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Mulgoa Tribe of the Darug People and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A beauty to finish ‘Close the Gap’ round on Monday night as the Panthers host the resurgent Cowboys. North Queensland have won 4 on the trot, including 2 away wins and now travel to Sydney’s west to face a Penrith team with a bunch of superstars sitting on the sidelines. The bookies can’t split them. The visitors forward pack looks fantastic on paper and played like it last week, but on the road this week, it’s a big test.

Look for another huge game from Panthers hooker and former Cowboy James Segeyaro as he continues to ignite the home side; and this will get them home. Yes, I’m tipping against a team that won by 60 last week but more importantly, this is your match of the round. A classic from the foot of the mountains as Johnathan Thurston faces Jamie Soward and the Cowboys monster back row of Jason Taumalolo, Tariq Sims and Glenn Hall take on the surprise pack of Isaah Yeo and Adam Docker.

My tip: Panthers 19-18

Paully's Picks - Round 22, 2014

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles

And suddenly it feels like September football is not just a dream – but a reality for excited footy fans across the eastern seaboard. The business end of the season is just around the corner and this game is the perfect way to get things rolling. Souths and Manly from the SCG kicks off round 22 of the premiership and its 1 v 2 on the ladder. You little beauty. The Bunnies on a 3 match winning streak and the mighty Eagles with 4 on the trot.

Manly have the edge here, for mine. They come into this match after a month where their defence has allowed an average of only 9 points against. Souths will have to be at their disciplined best to crack this mob enough times to win. They won’t. A great challenge for young centres Dylan Walker and Kirisome Auva’a against the best in the league, Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai, but this match is won with the Eagles defence and enough points via the hand of DCE.

My tip: Manly 20-14

 

Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your Friday night double header continues with the Broncos back home for the night game and the visiting Bulldogs living on Struggle Street. The ‘Dogs have looked busted since their season’s best performance against the Storm a month ago. Their defence was grand final worthy on that wet and wild night in Melbourne but now, it seems they gave too much. They’ve lost 3 on the trot since then and their defence has given up an average of just under 30 points over that span.

Brisbane don’t look to be cruising along, either. Since playing their best game of the season a fortnight ago against the Warriors, Brisbane have lost 2 straight and only scored 3 tries total over that time. Rumour has it that Wayne Bennett is already putting calls through to Broncos management asking them to release certain players and re-sign others – how delightfully de-stabilising. Canterbury will take advantage.

My tip: Canterbury 26-14
 

Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm

Hunter Stadium hosts the Knights v Storm on Saturday at 5.30 and the season can’t end quickly enough for Newcastle. Poor bastards. Coach leaving, unsigned players with nowhere to go and now, the in-form Storm coming to town. Melbourne have won their past 3 and more importantly, their defence since the end of the Origin series has only allowed 8 points per game. Compared to pre origin, when they seemed to be struggling and allowed over 22 per game.

Point is, the smart coaches don’t seem to waste too much energy in April, do they – and now with Craig Bellamy and his crew showing their experience, they will be rolling right over the Knights in this one. Cooper Cronk is hitting his stride and the Storm forwards are fit and ready. Kurt Gidley returns to fullback for this match and he hates it. Cronk and Smith’s kicking game the difference and the poor Knights fans still have 4 home games to sit through.

My tip: Melbourne 24-4

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers

Saturday night from the tropical north as the Cowboys host the Tigers. The nastiness continues in Tiger town with the front office doing little to help their team. Nothing like a power struggle with your team on the cusp of the 8 to really rev them up for a semi-final run. The sheer stupidity of some administrators to choose winning a sword fight over winning a premiership continues to astound, but we move on to actual rugby league.

Last time they met, the Cowboys only scored 4 points, a try in the 28^th minute at Campbelltown in round 6. This time, bet on them crossing the line a few more times than that with the Tigers still in turmoil and the home side on a 3 match winning streak.  After exorcizing some demons with two away wins, the Cowboys will be playing their second game in a row at home. When they’ve had this kind of time not spent at airports and hotels, it spells danger for visitors.

My tip: North Queensland 30-12

 

Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders (thanks to my favourite Eels fans - @ritcho33)

A grudge match in the making since Ricky Stuart cut his rebuilding project short by 4 years and took the opportunity to return home to the nation’s capital. Tricky Ricky has worn a number of labels over his career in Rugby League as both player and coach - arrogant, intense, abrasive, champion and saviour. When I think about the great man, the word that springs to mind is ILLUSIONIST. I think about a man who in his chosen profession, in which judgement is purely based around wins and losses, has (since 2008) achieved a 23% win ratio.

10 wins in his last 43 games as coach!!! How can an individual, with such an abysmal record of performance, negotiate a 7 year $7million contract? He is the David Copperfield of the NRL. It was the refs, the players, the crowd, the weather, the bounce of the ball, the sun in their eyes, the board, Gorden Tallis’ fault……. I want Ricky Stuart negotiating my next employment contract. Illusionist. He can make a wooden spoon appear from thin air. He should have command of a stage in Vegas!!

The Eels, who have thrived under first year coach Brad Arthur, look to keep their semi-final hopes alive against Stuarts struggling Raiders. Based on recent form, they go in as deserved favourites. The Raiders will be looking to salvage some pride and avoid Stuart’s second consecutive last place finish. I see the heat, hostile crowd and biased referee assist the Eels in toppling the Raiders in their Darwin “home game”.

Ritcho’s tip: Parramatta 34-16

 

New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

The poor Sharks, blah blah blah, and to make matter worse, the rugby league punting community is talking about how the Warriors have not beaten Cronulla in their last 5 games. Well, what a perfect way to ensure New Zealand turn up to this match at Mt Smart Stadium on Sunday afternoon, very much aware of this. Not to mention how much they’ve improved since last time they met Cronulla; the round 5 debacle that ended Matt Elliott’s career. It all points to a carve-up in Auckland.

Shaun Johnson still out with injury and the Sharks welcome back Paul Gallen, but with Luke Lewis and Wade Graham missing for the visitors, they simply won’t be tough enough to handle the home side. Andrew Fifita continues to impress after returning but the highlight here will be Warriors bench. Mateo, Matulino and big Sam Rapira will be unstoppable when they get on the field. Not to mention Jason ‘boogie’ Bukuya primed for a big match against his old club.

My tip: Warriors 28-12

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Penrith Panthers

A classic awaits us from Wollongong on Sunday afternoon and this will be your match of the round. Stay with me; The Panthers travel south to face the Dragons and even with the visitors sitting third on the ladder, they are pretty juicy outsiders here. Perhaps understandable considering their horrific injury toll – but the boys from the Blue Mountains were still good enough to beat the Bulldogs last week and with Jamie Soward playing against his old club, they’ll be right in this.

The Dragons have their season to play for here and at WIN Stadium with the beach breeze howling and half their team playing in front of their families, will be at their best. Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop were quite hard on themselves after last week’s loss to the defending premiers, so keep an eye out for them tearing it up from kick off. A great battle out wide with Josh Dugan against Jamal Idris but it will be Saints scraping home in a very tight one.

My tip: Dragons 19-18

 

Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

Round 22 comes to a close from Allianz Stadium as the Roosters host the Titans for Monday night footy and again, it seems everyone is talking about James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce. The Roosters do have the worst record in the NRL with repeat sets, but they also own spots 1 and 2 on the list of individual line-break assists. Guess which players?  Wait – don’t answer that, guess who also owns the 3^rd best attack in the comp? Yep, the Chooks.

Perhaps they are not playing as well as last year but ain’t it always the way with a premiership hangover? With the announcement of the retirement of their captain Anthony MInichiello this week, the home side will be primed for this match and that will do. The Gold Coast also made an announcement mid-week but its motivational properties are questionable. Daniel Mortimer may be sharing secrets here but it shouldn’t make a lick of difference.

My tip: Roosters 32-12