Paully's Picks - 2014 Grand Final Qualifiers

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Roosters

The game of the season. Friday night at Sydney Olympic Park and you won’t want to miss this. The reigning premiers, minor premiers and team of stars up against their oldest, biggest and most hated rivals. The Roosters have done it all in the NRL; a glamour club with an abundance of recent success and probably the most powerful club when it comes to influencing the officials at NRL headquarters. Souths are nearly their complete opposite.

The Bunnies are the dirty little brother that has made their way back from the brink of extinction and built themselves up from being bullied by the older sibling for the last 20 years. Well, if you wanna pick a fight with the ‘pride of the league’ these days, you better be ready for swift reprisals as they boast some of the toughest footballers in the NRL. The Burgess boys, Issac Luke, GI and a bench that looks like a prison inmate list. Better watch your back.

The Roosters won’t be hiding though. With the likes of Sam Moa in career best form, Frank Paul Nuuausala coming off the bench and the other usual suspects, the Chooks middle is anything but soft and they will meet their opponents with force. The forward battle, as always, will decide this one and when the Bunnies’ pack gets on top after an enthralling battle, they won’t lose focus as they have done in previous years. Souths have fallen short in the Finals for the past two seasons and now, they’ve learnt their lesson.

The difference being one Luke Keary. Souths have been tagged as predictable by everyone who thinks their opinion counts for something, including the ‘writer’ of these weekly ‘previews’ on LU. Now, they look mature and diverse. When Adam Reynolds is finished pinning the Chooks down in their own half with an all-pro kicking game, the Rabbitohs creative side will be unleashed. John Sutton becoming ball player and Keary sneaking around without being detected. That, and the almighty force that is Greg Inglis should see them home in a battle for the ages.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16

 

Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your second GF qualifier is a tantalizing prospect. Saturday night from ANZ Stadium and you better be ready for a nail biter. The Panthers, ravaged by injury and without the aid of any representative footballers on their current roster, somehow, are 80 minutes away from the big one. The Bulldogs, written off by the rugby league community when they finished the season with 7 losses from 9 games, have somehow found themselves favourites to make the GF here and on paper, have all the weapons to make it happen.

But the wrinkle in this equation in the unbelievable ability of Ivan Cleary to have his players ready to run a game plan, and his uncanny nous to make them better footballers. The likes of Matt Moylan, Dean Whare, Jamie Soward and James Segeyaro have had magnificent seasons and will terrorise the Bulldogs’ more favoured and heralded stars. Penrith won’t make any mistakes. They won’t lose this game through poor form or errors and that puts the onus on the opposition to play just as disciplined.

Canterbury are not known for this in 2014. They destroyed the Melbourne Storm a fortnight ago with a surprise attack and last week against Manly, well, I can’t remember much about that game so I’m not sure how they pulled it off. I remember meeting my mates inside Manly’s ‘tailgate party’ in Moore Park but then it gets a bit hazy. And just quietly, my friends, that tailgate party was a fantastic idea. If only every game could have that level of ‘entertainment’.

Moving on. We’ll see the underdog Panthers control this game from the kick off with nerves of steel and great leadership from Soward who has been through his share of big games – but when the boys from Belmore turn it up a gear, the Panthers may not be able to keep up. Canterbury’s mobility in the forwards has been their advantage in the Des Hasler era. It was the reason for their success in 2012. Now, they’ve found their mojo again and will be too good in the final moments for a gallant Penrith team.

My tip: Canterbury 13-12

Paully's Picks - NRL Finals Week 2, 2014.

Sydney Roosters v North Queensland Cowboys

A pity that one of these teams won’t be involved in the next fortnight of footy after this match. The two most entertaining squads in the competition and two teams that are coached the right way and play the right way. They’ve both peaked at the right time of the season and even though the Roosters were losers last week, they will only be rejunivated from this and ready to play for their season on Friday night in front of their home fans.

Anthony MInichiello breaks the Chooks’ all time record for games played and what a mighty captain and fullback he’s been. Joining the likes of RTS, SKD and Michael Jennings, the Count and his crew make up a formidable try-scoring machine and this back line is the best in the land. The defending premiers will be thankful that they won’t be forced into a grind, like they were against the Panthers last week.

The Cowboys? Well, a great disappointment that they won’t have Tariq Sims in the squad but with Gavin Cooper and Glen Hall, they have a combined 389 first grade games to guide this team up front. These two, combined with Australia’s best in Matt Scott, won’t have any problems matching the Roosters all-star forward pack, but they will struggle defending their line against waves of tri-coloured attacks out wide.

So, be ready for a beauty with the Roosters back to form and the poor old Cowboys losing another semi-final on the road. They will defend bravely and attack the home side with their usual flair, led by the NRL’s best in Johnathan Thurston, but it will be Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney who steer the minor premiers to a showdown with the Bunnies next week.

My tip: Roosters 24-14

 

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday Night from Allianz Stadium to see who faces the Panthers next week and this will be a cracker. The opening 15 minutes should tell us how tough the Sea Eagles really are without Anthony Watmough. No question, they are a brave bunch and have been for nearly a decade, but last week, their forwards were destroyed by South Sydney and now the Bulldogs’ pack have sniffed the blood and are high on confidence.

The likes of James Graham, Aidan Tolman, Greg Eastwood and Tony Williams will be joined by former co-captain Frank Pritchard to raise hell this week. Pritchard’s triumphant return from injury could spell the end of Manly’s season. If not in the forwards, then Manly’s right side defence could also spell their doom. A corridor that was exposed last week could see Josh Morris have a field day.

Rumours of infighting and people not getting along with Queenslander and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans are running rife. However, they get one more chance to disprove these theories and perhaps salvage a legacy of champions that dates back to the Matt Orford/Steve Menzies age. Otherwise, one of the greatest dynasties we've seen in the NRL could be over. The end of an era and all that.

With this pressure on them, Manly’s defence won’t be as brittle as Canterbury’s previous opponents were in the early going last week, so this one should turn in to a good old-fashioned bar room brawl; except for the punching; just the other stuff from a bar room brawl; petticoats, piano players, blokes getting thrown over the bartender and out into the dusty street, where you've parked your horse. That sort of stuff. If Manly can kiss and make up in the dressing room before kick-off, they may get one last crack at glory and pull off a stunner. If not, the ‘Dogs march on. 

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16

Paully's Picks - 2014 FInals week 1

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Finals. What a way to kick things off with two old Sydney rivals. They’ve played each other 133 times since 1947 and fans have truly hated each other with a passion at every single one of those games. Certainly, every Souths fan I know has more than just the average Manly hatred running through their veins - it’s passed down from their rugby league ancestors. So, with the stage set for your Second Qualifying Final, we head to Bunnies’ headquarters at Allianz Stadium for Friday night footy.

No secret that the Eagles have not been at their best lately, they’ve lost 3 from their past 5 including a 20 point thumping at the hands of Souths. Ordinarily, it wouldn’t be hard to see them stepping up for the finals and changing that momentum but this year, a big ask. The Rabbitohs have been priming themselves for this battle for 3 years and with plenty of semi-final experience of their own to call on, they’ll finish stronger. Keep any eye on Luke Keary barking his way through the 80 minutes. Hilarious.

My tip: South Sydney 18-8

 

Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers

The defending premiers, minor premiers and competition favourites are your shortest price this week. They are clearly the form team of the competition and with weapons from 1 through 17, they will take some stopping this Saturday against Penrith at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers have blown minds over the past 6 weeks with some impressive performances under duress and their reward was to finish 4^th – but this is a bigger challenge for a team that has never played finals footy together.

Still – you can bet Ivan Cleary will have something special planned for the Chooks and I can’t wait to see it. This is your match of the round and one that the Panthers will keep close, right to the end. More importantly though – don’t miss the beginning – the Roosters forwards are a daunting bunch and with their beloved captain only a month away from the end of his career, they will be frothing at the mouth, champing at the bit and getting themselves a week off.

My tip: Roosters 24-12

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Bronco

Saturday night from Townsville where the Cowboys are undefeated since round 3 this year and undefeated in finals footy since forever. No doubt they will be tested here through – the Broncos have nothing to lose and will always have a little extra in the tank when playing against their Queensland rivals.  Add to this the superb form of their halfback, Ben Hunt and you have yourselves a close one with Brisbane scaring the pants off the home side for a while – but not long enough.

Johnathan Thurston, despite what the talking heads have been yapping about, is not in career best form – he has always been this good. The differences this year, for mine, are that he is not carrying a serious injury for once, and that his forwards are playing outstanding football. Of course, the two are intertwined – JTs shoulders have not had to carry the burden of 40 tackles a game. Speaking of JTs forwards, they will be the difference here with the Sims brothers, Matt Scott and future superstar Jason Taumalolo the standouts.

My tip: Cowboys 24-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Week 1 of the finals rounds out with your Second Elimination Final from AAMI Park in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon. The ‘Dogs are hobbling but worse than this, it’s tough to guess which Bulldogs team will turn up. Will it be the premiership calibre side that beat Melbourne at this very ground in round 18? Or will it be the side that slumped to its 6^th loss in 8 games against the Titans last week? Don’t answer that cos it may not matter.

The Storm don’t need to worry about form, don’t need to worry about consistency and are not confused about which personality they will play with in front of a packed house full of rabid purple pride punters. They are rightfully heavy favourites here and unless Canterbury can make adjustments to their attack, Melbourne will strangle them out of the season. The visitors have not been very creative will the ball of late and Melbourne’s defence simply won’t be tested enough.

My tip: Storm 19-12

Paully's Picks - Round 26, 2014

Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 26 and your match of the round kicks off a weekend where dreams will come true for some and Mad Monday will begin for others. Either way, rugby league can’t lose. First cab off the rank? Your match of the round and what a beauty this will be. It’s the second-best rivalry going around this weekend behind ‘rickygate’ in Canberra but we dare say this will see some better footy played.

And most of that footy will come from the Chooks. Seeing the best of Mitchell Pearce should be so rewarding for those that have stuck by him. Seeing this team play a brand of footy that is true to the spirit of the game and entertaining as well should set the example for all future coaches out there. By contrast, anyone watching Souths should watch Greg Inglis and avoid making eye contact with anything else that Souths dish out.

My tip: Roosters 16-12

 

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

If you haven’t worked out that wrestling has potentially already destroyed the greatest game of all – take a look at this match a little closer. Your Friday night neck breaker from AAMI Park in Melbourne highlights two clubs who’ve done well in the squared circle over the years. The Storm have led the way over a number of years when it comes to the old sleeper hold and should be proud of what they have ruined.

Now, ironically, to make the top 8, Brisbane need to beat the home side without their captain and best player, Sam Thaiday, after he was suspended for wrestling. Apparently the NRL can suspend people but have admitted this is not going to be a deterrent. Just wonderful stuff. Speaking of wonderful stuff, keep an eye on the two halfbacks in this match. Cooper Cronk and Ben Hunt put on a clinic.

My tip: Melbourne 19-12
 

Wests Tigers v Cronulla Sharks

Saturday afternoon from Leichhardt Oval and the rugby league puritans could not think of a better way to bid farewell to a couple of teams who’ve done it very tough this year. The Tigers kicked off the season in style, mostly, but have since come under fire because, effectively, their captain is not ‘one of the boys’. Well, Robbie certainly deserves to hit Mad Monday with style and we are sure he will.

Speaking of Mad Monday, they may as well honour what this great footy ground was built for – punters to hit the sauce very early on their weekend and continue into a happy and hazy evening on Balmain Road. If you think Farah and his crew won’t make it all the way to the Sackville, you’re kidding yourself. Cronulla may not be able to find their form of a week ago but if its form you’re after, look elsewhere.

My tip: Tigers 14-12

 

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Last time these clubs met, a round 22 special from Darwin, the Raiders led for most of the contest until Jarryd Hayne found a hole and taxied right through it. This time, Parra must leave everything on the field if they are to be any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. A huge ask for a young team with a horrific away record in 2014 and perhaps, by kick off, nothing to play for.

Look for the Raiders to dominate here as a promising season for the visitors comes to a disappointing end. A tip of the hat to Brad Arthur and his crew though, they have avoided a 19^th straight wooden spoon. Speaking of hat tipping, here’s to Brett White who plays his last NRL match and speaking of farewells, keep an eye on Canberra fans shedding more tears as they watch another all-star half leave their club. Anthony Milford, we hardly knew ya.

My tip: Raiders 30-20

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

An emotional night for the home side. Firstly, they’ll be bidding a fond farewell to retiring centre, Brent Tate and secondly, this could be the last time in 2014 where a refereeing decision goes their way. So, with the starting 17 fully recovered from the flu and their motivation reaching its peak, the Cowboys are justified favourites against Manly at 1300SMILES stadium on Saturday night.

Some fantastic matchups here. First and foremost, two quality, premiership contenders who don’t wrestle as part of their Plan A. Secondly, Johnathan Thurston against DCE. Finally and most importantly, keep an eye on the Cowboys back row outplaying the likes of Justin Horo and Tom Symonds and this is where the home side has an edge. They control the ruck and control the edges to win.

My tip: North Queensland 20-16
 

Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons

Ahh, the godfather of the wrestle, Wayne Bennett. Fingers crossed that El Capo realises what a horrible mistake he made when he first hired a wrestling coach in Brisbane all those years ago. I doubt it. Moving on, The Bennett coached Knights have had a terrible year. Unable to grasp his defensive instructions, the Wrestle, it would seem, is not part of the DNA of this great town’s footballing culture. Thank god.

So, they finish a forgettable season hosting the Dragons for old boys’ day and it will be a huge ask for the visitors to march into Mad Monday with a win here. The Knights are undefeated at home over their past 4 matches, average just under 30 points per game in attack over that span. They’ll turn it on again here and put away the Dragons after another brave effort from Paul McGregor’s men.

My tip: Newcastle 22-18

 

Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Sunday afternoon from Robina and what a place to organise your Mad Monday festivities. Firstly, you can bet John Cartwright will be a part of the fun; secondly, you can bet Dave Taylor will be falling out of beds all over the Gold Coast next week and finally, a tip of the hat to one of this ‘columns’ favourite players over the years, Luke “Bull” Bailey.

From his humble beginnings at St George-Illawarra, Bailey always looked like a leader and played like one. This is his last match and it’s only fitting that the Bulldogs’ monster pack will make sure it’s a tough one. The ‘Dogs are limping into the finals with a stuttering attack but their season long commitment to defence should get them the win here.

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16

Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors

By kick off, the Warriors will know everything they need to know so fingers crossed for the Puppets and Muppets in charge of your pay-tv broadcaster that this match is not a ‘dead rubber’, so to speak. Either way, we hope that all the Dad’s out there enjoyed their father’s day by not getting off the couch for the entire Sunday arvo triple header.

You made it, you mad bastards. So strap yourselves in for the regular season finale as the Panthers give it all they got to ensure a top 4 finish at Sportingbet Stadium in front of their loyal fans. Matt Moylan the standout again but it’s the tough-as-nails Penrith forwards who turn up to ensure another win.

My tip: Penrith 24-18