Paully's Picks - Round 16, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Sydney Roosters

Round 16 kicks off from Brookvale Oval on Friday night as the Roosters head north for a Grand Final replay. This is your match of the round. The chooks have lost only 1 game in their last 9 weeks and Manly are rolling along just as nicely, on top of the table and looking as dangerous as ever. They’ll miss Anthony Watmough, but have enough experience and agro to cover him and they will need to. The Roosters pack is a sight to behold.

With no rain forecast this week, the fortress surface should look better than we last saw and these two teams may actually score some points. But don’t bet on too many. Last time they met, in Round 4, the Roosters were in a dry spell and lost 8-0. This time round, they are firing and fresh and will re-visit their domination of the Eagles. The halves battle, the forwards battle, the strength and speed of the outside backs… this is how you build premiership calibre teams.

My tip: Roosters 18-16

Brisbane Broncos v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

So, the Broncos mid-season tryst around the world has ended and their return to Suncorp Stadium for Friday night footy came just in time. Your free-to-air broadcaster may have had to show Manly v Roosters on prime-time Brisbane TV, heaven forbid. That, or replays of Hey Hey its Saturday’s greatest hits. Speaking of which, the Broncos will be happy to get the band back together this week as they face the last placed Sharks.

Brisbane may not be at their best without Andrew McCullough controlling the middle, but if given any space against the struggling Cronulla outside backs, they will run riot. Ben Barba is edging closer each week and we may even see his best here. Similarly, Justin Hodges and Jack Reed should have little problems handling Jono Wright and company. The poor Sharks forwards simply can’t do everything, but they may score their first try in almost 5 hours of footy. Fingers crossed.

My tip: Brisbane 30-12
 

Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders

Good signs for the Tigers here. They come into this game after a week off and will be running onto the hallowed turf of Campbelltown Stadium with a spring in their step, their spine intact and almost at full strength. If they put the throttle down early and not wait for the Raiders to shoot themselves in the foot, this could be another disaster for Ricky Stuart and his downtrodden troops. The Raiders have won 1 from their past 6 matches and are hanging by a thread.

So, Saturday night from Sydney’s west may only be a 2 hour drive for the visitors, but it will feel a lot longer on the way home. Robbie Farah’s hangover should be completely gone so he, Aaron Woods and Keith Galloway will set the tone early. Luke Brooks and James Tedesco will continue where they left off earlier in the season and carve up the Raiders’ league worst defence. Tigers by plenty as Canberra are simply too slow to keep up.

My tip: West 32-12

 

North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Back to Townsville for Jonathan Thurston and the Cowboys and they’ll all breathe a sigh of relief. Since round 4 this season, North Queensland have won all their home games and lost all away. It’s consistently inconsistent and if they are to continue this consistent incontinency then they’ll be winners this Saturday night at 1300Smiles Stadium against the visiting Bunnies. No doubt Souths will have something to say about this.

The Rabbitohs are rolling. They’ve lost only twice in the past 11 weeks and are owners of the NRL’s best defence and second best attack, statistically speaking. This is amazing. Especially considering how many jokes this ‘column’ has made about their reliance upon Greg Inglis to be the only creative force with ball in hand. Lucky nobody is reading this, then I’d really be embarrassed. If anyone is reading this – I tipped 6 from 6 last week so there.

My tip: South Sydney 21-14

 

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

If footy fans are salivating at the thought of a grand final replay from Brookvale on Friday night, then they’ll almost be frothing at the bit in anticipation of this one. Ivan Cleary heads back to where it all began for his coaching career and he brings a few ex-warriors with him. Elijah Taylor, Lewis Brown and Jeremy Latimore will enjoy the trip back to Auckland and will relish the opportunity to face their former teammates.

So will the Warriors. They’ve only lost 2 games in the past 8 weeks and will be primed to face the league leaders here. Sunday afternoon footy does not get much better than this and with a big crowd expected and the home side surprising favourites, it will be a beauty. The Panthers are coming off a nice break here and will be perfectly prepared to add to their current 5 match winning streak. They’ll start strong and finish stronger.

My tip: Penrith 22-18

 

Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights

Sunday afternoon from Pirtek Stadium where the mighty Eels are undefeated this year. A huge ask for the visiting Knights as they bring a 3 and 11 record with them to Sydney and are locked in as very heavy outsiders. They’ll be focussing all their energy on stopping Jarryd Hayne, in the hopes of keeping this one close but it will be the Eels forwards they really have to worry about. New rake Isaac De Gois will be more familiar with his crew and they will thrive.

Parra wins the ruck and dominates field position – and then there’ll be plenty of opportunities for Chris Sandow to have some fun. As long as he doesn’t accuse any one of match fixing, he’ll have a ball. The Eels should start fast, as they do at home, and then hold on for another win out west. But look for an improved performance from the Knights after a confidence boosting win last week with Kurt Gidley in his preferred position at halfback. Won’t be enough though.

My tip: Parramatta 30-20

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm

Monday night footy has the Storm visiting the Dragons from a very cold and windy Wollongong. How do we know it’s gonna be cold and windy at WIN Stadium, 5 days out from game day? We just know. We also know that Benji Marshall is now 5 games into his return to the greatest game of all and if we are to believe the experts, who said it would take Benji ‘6 or 7 weeks’ to find his rhythm, then we are in for a treat here.

Melbourne’s defence has not been great in 2014 and even with a vastly improved showing from their halves in recent times, they may struggle on both sides of the ball here. Benji could be set for a good one but Gareth Widdop will no doubt deliver. He gets Saints off on the right foot and even with Trent Merrin out injured, the Dragons forwards continue their fight for respect. Dan Hunt slated to return and Saints get revenge for that round 6 farce.

My tip: Dragons 20-18

Paully's Picks - Round 15, 2014

Canberra Raiders v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

If everyone has calmed down… if you’ve come down… if you’ve settled down…. Then join me on a trip down to the nation’s capital for Friday night footy. Raiders fans are notorious for their long-standing rage towards the NRL and broadcasters for not showing enough free-to-air Canberra games. Well, Greenhouse, here is your chance. You sit 14^th on the ladder and are proud owners of the worst defence in the NRL.

What could possibly go wrong with ratings if we show the Raiders on Friday night footy? Nothing, baby. This’ll be a beauty. Canberra are celebrating the 20 year anniversary of their 1994 grand final victory over the Bulldogs and in attendance on this night will be some of the game’s greatest ever, as well as your humble previewer. So, I’ve packed 72 jackets and a beanie to see the Bulldogs return to the winners’ circle, but only if their halves have anything left in the tank.

My tip: Bulldogs 20-12

New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos

Saturday night in Auckland as round15 continues from across the Tasman and the Broncos continue to power through the rep season. They’ve won 4 straight and sit in 6^th place. Their defence over the past month has been outstanding. Credit coach Anthony Griffin for turning this famous franchise around and allowing kids like Ben Hunt the chance to improve. He surely has. Griffin has also shown remarkable patience with Ben Hannant and Ben Barba and it seems they are about to reward him.

The Warriors also have a coach to thank. Matt Elliott was fired a while back and this team is 4 and 2 under Andrew McFadden. They will be ready to fire here, with no players backing up from origin 2 and a  bunch of players feeling more comfortable in their skin and comfortable in their positions. None more than Sam Tomkins at fullback. Shaun Johnson will combine well with the Englishman and the Warriors win.

My tip: Warriors 18-16

 

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday night in the Shire and this place will still be buzzing. The Sharks’ favourite son and captain, Paul Gallen will come home a hero whether he takes the field or not. Speaking of taking the field, the bye week certainly has done more for the Sharks than any bye week has done in the history of rugby league. Possibly. Point is, Todd Carney, Jeff Robson, Luke Lewis, all returning for the home side and they could finally be capable of something special here.

Manly won’t care who is wearing the famous skye blue and black. They sit second on the ladder and have all the experience in the world to handle a trip this far south. It will be a lovely, crisp and celebratory evening at Remondis but after the origin love, comes the battle of the beaches. Cronulla may finally look like a first grade team here, but it simply won’t be enough. Kieran Foran and the Manly forwards too good. They win the ground game and finish stronger.

My tip: Manly 22-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Parramatta Eels

AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon has the Eels bringing their horrendous away record to Melbourne to face the Storm. If Jarryd Hayne is rested here, after another herculean effort on Wednesday night, possibly the greatest night of my life, then Parra are next to no chance. Melbourne have not been fantastic at home this year and god knows they don’t strike fear into opponents the way they used to, but Craig Bellamy has begun to trust his backups.

This should be enough to get them home against a very good Parra side. Their forwards will be willing via the likes of Pauli Pauli and the Paulo boys. In fact, this crew of big men with trouble the Storm plenty in this one, but the experience of the home side will get them home. Ben Roberts will enjoy playing against his old teammates whilst they will not enjoy playing in 11 degree temperatures. Roberts v Chris Sandow could send twitter into a meltdown.

My tip: Melbourne 23-22

Gold Coast Titans v St George Illawarra Dragons

Stuck at the wrong end of the ladder and the wrong end of good form, these two clubs are struggling. 12^th and 13^th on the ladder, respectively. They’ve won only one game of football over the past 12 combined weeks and the grind of the NRL is certainly to blame for both teams. Their disastrous fall from grace after sensational beginnings this year can only be due to injury, exhaustion and a weakening of the most important positions on the field, the 7 and 6.

The Titans will start another brand new halves combo in Maurice Blair and the one and only Daniel Mortimer, whilst the Dragons are getting more comfortable with Benji and Englishman Gareth Widdop. The latter will lead the way in this one and after showing good signs against the Panthers last week, will be too good for the Titans. Fingers crossed that Greg Bird, Trent Merrin and Josh Dugan don’t miss the bus to this match and pass the breath test. Bless them.

My tip: Dragons 24-18

Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys

With no less than 7 players asked to back up from origin in this one, we already have two who won’t make it. Brent Tate and Matt Scott have serious injuries keeping them sidelined and the Cowboys, again, could see their season slip away through a hat full of bad luck. Speaking of bad luck, ladies and gentleman, your Newcastle Knights. Once nearly unbeatable at home, the Novocastrians are now beatable everywhere. They’ve lost 7 in a row and are wooden spoon favourites.

Their biggest chance to turn the season around could be on Monday night against an understrength Cowboys. It will take a massive effort from the likes of Willie Mason and Jeremy Smith to play like they are young again. If they do and the home side win the battle of the forwards and win the ruck, Jarrod Mullen will show he hasn’t given up on the season just yet, unlike some Knights fullbacks who shall remain nameless. Newcastle find a way here.

My tip: Knights 18-16

Paully's Picks - State of Origin 2, 2014.

New South Wales v Queensland

Game 2. ANZ Stadium will be jam packed with 85,000 rabid rugby league fans and rightly so. There is no better event in the country, no bigger rivalry in any of our codes and no greater story than State of Origin. 100 games in the books and may there be 100 more. On Wednesday night, New South Wales have another opportunity to stop a 9 year horror run of losses to their most hated rival.

The Blues’ players spoke of the ‘dark places’ they went to in game 1, having to defend their line against a never-ending tidal wave of Maroon jerseys. This dark place is a realm often visited by blues fans, except without any actual physical exertion or excruciating injuries to play through, but nearly the same. So, get ready for another 80 minutes of the greatest footy you will ever see and whilst the pace will be the fast, the scoring will again be slow.

Qld will be confident. They lost their halfback after 10 minutes in the opener, had their captain on one leg for most of the second half and were missing Sam Thaiday. Still 2 tries a piece; Goal kicking the difference. Battered and bruised and in disarray? After one game? Please. This time, we’ll see their best. The best of Daly Cherry Evans – you just get the feeling he’s fine – the best of Matt Scott and the best of the frightening rest.

The Blues also believe. Even with a new right side in Josh Dugan and Will Hopoate and the huge pressure they’ll be under to produce the kind of defense that won the opener, NSW will come out of the blocks quickly and confidently with a dominant front line. But as with nearly every series we've seen, this will be decided in the last 15 mins and will be via the hands of their halves. Trent Hokinson and Josh Reynolds stand on the precipice of a place in Origin folklore.

If they can do it just a little better than future immortal, Jonathan Thurston, it will be party time. If so, let it fly NSW, LET.IT.FLY – and for god’s sake drink responsibly. Also, if you live in the Olympic Park precinct or close by, best prepare for a noisy evening, at least until 10pm when they kick everyone out of the brewery. The Blues have matured and will keep their composure in the final moments as history is made.

My tip: calling in sick on Thursday.

Man of the Match tip: Ryan Hoffman

Paully's Picks - Round 14, 2014

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers

Round 14. The second half of season 2014 kicks off from ANZ Stadium and time sure is flying. Speaking of flying, these two teams certainly are, with Souths continuing a recent era of success and the Tigers bouncing back from a nightmare 2013. They both sit on 16 competition points and even without superstars like Greg Inglis, Robbie Farah and Liam Fulton playing in this game, it will still be a beauty as tensions in the middle are sure to flare.

In their last meeting with Souths in round 3, the visitors forward pack was heralded as the crew that finally stood up to the Burgess Boys. This time, the likes of Galloway, Taupau and Blair better be ready for reprisals. Souths were essentially spanked in that match and they won’t let the same thing happen here. Sam Burgess, as he often does, will get the ball rolling early and even with the fatigue that may hit the Bunnies after a trip to Perth, they will have their revenge.

My tip: South Sydney 21-14

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

The Mighty Panthers. Sitting on top of the table with an 8-4 record and the second best defence in the competition, this team has it all. A forward pack with the perfect balance of youth and experience, of size and skill and of brains and brawn; a representative halves combination with 340 games total experience and finally, a backline boasting the likes of… ready for this….  Dallin Watene-Zelezniak! Yes, I’m now president of the Panthers fan club. Deal with it.

Where does this leave the visiting Dragons for Saturdays nights encounter at Sportingbet Stadium? In deep doo doo. Saints may have climbed out of the pit of despair with last week’s win over Cronulla, but it may not be enough to get them past the home side who come in as $1.20 favourites. So, whilst the Widdop/Marshall combination still finds its feet, Penrith run right through the Dragons middle and end this one early and emphatically.

My tip: Penrith 30-14

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

The defending premiers have won 6 of their past 7 matches and are absolutely loving it. They have enough depth to cover the loss of a few origin stars and with their 7 and 6 staying in Bondi for the rep season, Chooks fans must be doing cartwheels. This week, they face the free-falling Knights. Newcastle have lost their past 6 matches and sit second-last on the ladder. In fact, the stats don’t do justice to how different these two clubs are, right now.

The Knights are cashless, ownerless and hopeless whilst the Roosters have it all; the money, the sponsors and the talent. Speaking of talent, you’ll see the Tri-Colours’ very best on show at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night as Mitchel Pearce and James Maloney guide their unstoppable forward pack around the park for an easy victory. The only controversy could come if Willie Mason tries to steal Sonny Bill’s wallet at halftime. Fingers crossed.

My tip: Roosters 30-12

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels

It’s the height of rudeness, really. To forsake your most vocal, most passionate and most traditional fan base by booking this fixture 3 days before origin 2? Simply breathtaking stuff from the NRL. With Canterbury and Parramatta both in the middle of fantastic seasons and with the history that these clubs share, you could have 40,000 people minimum turn up to this game and now, to have it played without a handful of the biggest stars in the comp is just crazy.

As always, we digress. Damien Cook gets his chance to start for the Bulldogs at halfback this week and if anyone knows how to welcome a kid from Cronulla Beach to Belmore, it’s Bulldogs fans. The ‘Dogs will struggle in attack without their starting halves and admittedly, the same problem exists for Parra without Jarryd Hayne and Nathan Peats. So, strap in for a defensive struggle between two great Sydney clubs as they face each other for the 135^th time.

My tip: Canterbury 14-12

Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm

A tough period for both clubs. Whilst the Storm crawl through the rep season again, this time they won’t be getting Cooper Cronk back after it’s all over. Rather, as this season continues, they’ll most likely see the fading of an aura they’ve kept for a decade. The Titans are also on very shaky ground. They’ve lost their organiser, Aidan Sezer, for 3 months and now Albert Kelly looks to have been dumped from 1^st grade completely.

So, with all rep players out, the Titans’ season in upheaval, the match scheduled 48 hours from Origin 2 and the poorly supported Storm coming to town; get ready for CBUS Super Stadium in Robina to be rocking on Monday night. It’s almost the perfect storm to get the Rugby League juices really flowing. Heaven help us all. Speaking of heaven, watching this match could send you to the other place so either get on the sauce early, or have a little something on last try-scorer to keep you locked in.

My tip: Titans 16-14

Paully's Picks - Round 13, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Canterbury Bulldogs

A special night for Bulldogs coach Des Hasler. Finally, Dessie can play a game close to home. Finally, Dessie doesn’t have to drive from the northern beaches to Belmore to catch the team bus on time. A horrible run, really. Military Rd – Eastern Distributor - Airport tunnel, how does he do it every day? Hasler is a perfectionist, so he probably does it well and there is no chance he won’t be prepared for round 13’s opener on Friday night at Brookvale oval.

Its 1 v 3 on the ladder and the only issue that can take away from this beauty would be injuries. With DCE and Choc Watmough rumoured to be ready, we may not have to worry. The Bulldogs will miss Josh Morris desperately, but with 2 weeks rest, Canterbury will be barking right from kick off. Eagles props Brenton Lawrence and Josh Starling will need to show maturity beyond their years to stand up to the visitors pack, but it’s the Bulldogs bench forwards that will do the most damage here.

My tip: Canterbury 17-16 

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys

No secret that the Cowboys are winless on the road this year. In fact, their remedy to this problem was to announce during the week that they are in the market for a private plane to help ease the suffering of interstate travel. They also announced that this is a 30 year plan. So until Josh Hannay and Paul Bowman’s grandchildren can improve this clubs away record, it’s up to Jonathan Thurston and his crew to march into Pirtek Stadium and perform a miracle.

The bookies don’t agree – they have the visitors as slight favourites but with the return of Jarryd Hayne and Parramatta’s record at home this year, it’s tough to tip against them. So, since I’m not in the business of making any tough decisions, let’s stick with Parra. Luke Kelly gets a shot at the hooker position for the home side, replacing Nathan Peats and whilst these are huge shoes to fill, Kelly and the Eels forwards should aim up against the Australian front rowers and win a close one.

My tip: Eels 20-14 

Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

Saturday afternoon from Robina has the 2^nd place Panthers visiting the struggling Titans. When they last met in round 7 this year, things were very different with the Titans sitting on top of the table and looking like a team destined to upset the apple cart. Now, just over a month later, John Cartwright’s men have only won 1 match since and are losers of their last 3 while the Panthers are on a 3 match winning streak.

If you believe in momentum, well, Penrith will destroy the home side with their disciplined attack, ferocious defence and a couple of very hungry try-scoring weapons out wide. If you think the Titans have a little bit of dynamite left in the kit bag, and that the return of Greg Bird will light the fuse, then tip the home side and watch them play with that famous Titan pride. Peter Wallace and Jamie Soward too good for Albert Kelly and Maurice Blair, for mine. The halves win this one.

My tip: Penrith 24-14 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks

13 v 16 on the table, but it won’t matter. This famous local derby will still get the fires burning for Sharks and Dragons fans even though their collective seasons look to be a complete mess, at best. Cronulla coach Shane Flanagan has been replaced by the reluctant Peter Sharp whilst the Dragons face their second week of the Paul McGregor era. A tough season for the red V, after winning their first three matches but Wollongong might bring a spring back to their step.

McGregor’s childhood playground and the Steelers spiritual home ground, WIN Stadium may not be packed to the rafters for this bottom of the table clash, but it will surely mean a lot to ‘Mary’ and the Saints. No, that’s not a rock band; rather, they are my tip for Saturday night down south. The electric Nathan Gardner returns to first grade but that’s where the excitement ends for Cronulla. Their back-up halves simply won’t be creative enough.

My tip: Dragons 27-12 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors

The NRL’s annual trip to Perth’s NIB Stadium. As always, the Rabbitohs take their home game across the Nullarbor but this time, it’s an in-form Warriors team that will meet them. Both teams are winners of 4 from their past 5 and both teams are improving as the year progresses. Just what you want from a good side – don’t peak too soon. The Warriors certainly did not have to worry about this earlier in the season but with their coaching changes now settled, they look dangerous.

Souths will need to be at their defensive best to get away with this one, and they will be. They shut out the Sharks a fortnight ago and trounced the Dragons last week – whilst these opponents are not exactly striking fear into our hearts these days, Souths’ are looking good. Sam Burgess will get his team forward early and with this space comes a better kicking game from Adam Reynolds. The Bunnies grind out another one.

My tip: South Sydney 18-12 

Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers

Sunday afternoon football comes to you from Hunter Stadium, with the all-powerful Newcastle Knights now simply a shadow of their past glories. Darius Boyd’s 200^th first grade match could be a reason to celebrate, but intelligent Knights fans know that this mercenary of a footballer is not quite happy in the Hunter, and not quite giving his best. So, the search for inspiration continues for the home side and the odds are against them finding any.

The Tigers, in contrast, are getting closer to their full complement with more players getting off the physio’s table. James Tedesco came back from the brink of anonymity during the week and now, also returns from injury. If the visitors can find any of their early season form, they’ll run over the Knights in this one. These teams have a combined 1 win from their past 9 matches so we hope to see some desperation. The class of Robbie Farah and Luke Brooks make for another tough afternoon in Newcastle.

My tip: Wests 20-18 

Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters

The last two NRL Premiers meet at AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon and whilst the Storm will struggle to overcome the injuries to Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk, it’s their defence that will be tested here. The reigning premiers bring an arsenal of weapons and when they fire, it could get ugly for Melbourne. The home side will do everything they can to slow this match down to a grinding halt and hope that Ben Roberts and Tohu Harris can steer them around the park, but.. you know…

Always a difficult time of year for Craig Bellamy and his team – but this is downright nasty. The Roosters, if they care enough, should get out of the blocks quickly and once they get the glut of possession, will be too good here. Keep an eye on Jared Waerea-Hargreaves with a point to prove against a couple of New Zealand forwards picked ahead of him in the Anzac test this year. Sober props have a very long memory.

My tip: Roosters 24-10 

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

Monday night football from the nation’s capital and finally, I get to talk about the weather. Nothing fills up a ‘column’ with boring, witless, pointless opinion better than the cold weather in Canberra. 7 degrees at kick off, that’s the prediction. Your pay-tv commentators making very shitty jokes about it – that’s another prediction. The Raiders starting a lot quicker than the Broncos and then fading late in the half, that’s my last prediction.

Can we put a multi on this? Moving on, the Broncos sit in 6^th position on the ladder and are winners of their last 3. They remain undefeated in NSW this year and since the ACT counts as one of ours, they’ll keep this record intact after the Raiders lose their direction and the Hunt/Hoffman combination causes trouble for Canberra’s league worst defence. Sam Thaiday returns from a very long hiatus to spark a big finish from the Broncos.

My tip: Brisbane 24-22