Paully's Picks - Preliminary Finals, 2013

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Many Warringah Sea Eagles

The mighty Eagles keep turning up and keep putting in. An amazing effort to back up from their prolific affair against the chooks in week 1 of the finals, to then beat down the insatiable Cronulla Sharks. This week; a Grand Final qualifier against the hard-nosed Rabbitohs. They can't possibly have anything left can they? Yes they can. Manly have the weapons to bust open a disciplined South Sydney outfit, but have to remain error free. A huge ask for a very tired forward pack.

Souths won't be thinking about this, won't be thinking about Manly’s fitness levels. They'll be sticking with a game plan that's lasted them 26 rounds, 18 wins and now, a shot at a grand final appearance. The historical significance of this cannot be understated, so I'll over state it. The Bunnies have not been this close to glory in 40 years. Their fans will be rabid with excitement and the atmosphere at ANZ stadium on Friday night will be magnificent.

Not just a match of the round or the game of the season, this will be one for the ages. Manly’s experience will ensure they have a few surprises up their sleeve and this will get them off to a good start.  But Souths have come a long way in 12 months and they’ll be up to the challenge. Led by Adam Reynolds, who showed plenty of class in the 2012 Finals before busting his hamstring, the Rabbitohs will bounce back after the opening exchanges and be too strong and too methodical for the Eagles who play their 3rd blockbuster in 14 days.

Like every big game it’ll be heart stopping for 80 minutes. Like every big game Greg Inglis has been involved in, he will be the one to watch.  Souths go through to their first Grand Final since 1971 and the ‘pride of the league’ has returned.

My tip: South Sydney 19-12

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

Saturday night from Allianz Stadium and this Preliminary Final has footy fans salivating. The Roosters entertaining style in attack and phenomenal resolution in defence has them one win away from a Grand Final. They are the Minor Premiers and have been the most entertaining team to watch all year. Plenty of big game experience in this squad and they are rightly set as short price favourites for this one.

But beware chooks fans – don’t feel as confident as this short price suggests. The momentum of last week’s unbelievable win in Melbourne, the energy of 50 busloads of Novocastrians on their way to Sydney, the mountain of experience from coach and club legends has the visiting Newcastle Knights primed for something special. They completely shut down the Bulldogs a fortnight ago and then led the Storm from start to finish last week. Now, they are very, very dangerous.

If another upset is to happen, the visitors will need to execute Wayne Bennett’s perfectly prepared game plan. I’m no genius, but let’s wager that this plan will involve slowing the game down to a virtual snail’s pace. Jarrod Mullen and Tyrone Roberts will need to set the tone here. The Roosters in the red zone are near unstoppable and with the likes of Michael Jennings and Sonny Bill Williams on the attack, kicking games are crucial.

Unfortunately for Knights fans, the dream ends here. Two malicious and determined forward packs will beat and wrestle the stuffing out of each other for 80 minutes and this will keep the game close, but the Chooks arsenal is simply too potent to hold out.

My tip: Roosters 20-6

Paully's Picks - 2013 Finals Week 2

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles v Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Friday night from Allianz Stadium and a chance to progress in this year’s title race. The resurgent, resilient and very fortunate Cronulla Sharks travel to the home of Sydney Rugby League to face what will be a very angry Manly squad. They failed to trouble the scorers last week against the chooks and if they think things might open up this week, they'll be in for a rude shock. The sharks will likely be without Todd Carney and this will see them surge even further towards the grind.

Get ready for a dour 80 minutes; this will go down to the wire. The Sharks will play bash-up footy and will try to win this with sheer aggression. Their forward pack is built for such times and with the loss of Todd Carney, will rely even more than usual on their big men. Manly will counter act this with their own version of toughness, but eventually will have more class out wide. DCE and Kieran Foran step up and the Eagles win behind their halves and skipper Jamie Lyon. A ripper.

My tip: Manly 18-12

Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights

Semi Final 2 comes to you from AAMI Park in Melbourne as the Knights travel south to face the Storm. If you thought the Roosters v Manly match in week 1 was a defensive battle, there may not even be a line break to speak of in this one. Newcastle suffocated the Bulldogs out of existence last week and whilst the Storm may offer more in attack to test the visitors this week, the Knights are proud of their identity and will stick strong.

If the Premiership winning combinations forged by Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater are to crack this Knights defence, they'll need some help from Gareth Widdop. Melbourne struggled to finish in the red zone last week and they'll be tested in this area again with Widdop still working on his cohesion with the storm three quarter line. Craig Bellamy will ensure they have it all worked out this week, especially against his old mentor in Wayne Bennett. A beauty.

My tip: Melbourne 13-6

Paully's Picks - 2013 Finals Series, Week 1

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Melbourne Storm

The 2013 NRL Finals series begins with your first Qualifying Final from ANZ Stadium on Friday night and it just so happens to be a replay of last year’s semi final when Melbourne took advantage of the Rabbitohs inexperience and crushed them to death. The test here, as the 3^rd place finishers travel to Sydney to face the Minor Premiership runners up, will be on Souths, to see how far they have come in 12 months.

We know what the Storm will bring to this match. We know that they’ve learnt how to manage the gruelling 26 round schedule, get through origin and then finish strongly every year. They will be primed and prepared to perfection and will hope to starve Souths of possession and suffocate them when they do actually get their hands on the ball. What we don’t know is if Souths can go a gear higher and match it with their ugly older brother. Melbourne too good in Wrestlemania 27.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Sudden death footy; the best kind. Your first elimination final opens up a Moore Park double header on Saturday arvo at 4pm as the North Queensland Cowboys bring their 6 match winning streak to Allianz Stadium to face the Sharks. This will be an absolute cracker. The Sharks have paid up big to solidify their roster and this will be when Cronulla fans expect these mercenaries to earn that paycheque. Luke Lewis, Wade Graham and Michael Gordon will not disappoint.

Then again, neither will the mighty Cowboys. They average over 32 points per game over the past 6 weeks including the 31 they scored against these very Sharks only a fortnight ago. Their attack is relentless and Jonathan Thurston has been brutal. Semi final/sudden death footy might bring a different pressure to the Cowboys and the Sharks can easily beat the crap out of you on their day, but the Cowboys win this one by a whisker.

My tip: North Queensland 22-20

Sydney Roosters v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Part 2 of your Saturday double header has the Roosters hosting the Eagles from Allianz Stadium. The Chooks have been sensational in 2013 and are deserved winners of the JJ Giltinan Shield. They defend bravely, as opposed to dangerously, and love to throw the footy around. Their big test here will be to push this style against are battle hardened, rock solid, full strength Manly squad. It will be a violent opening 15 minutes.

Speaking of violence, the home side will miss Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner but will hope to get their dirty work done through the toughness of Sam Moa and Mitch Aubusson. Sounds like a stretch, but if the Roosters can win enough yardage up front, they have more weapons than Manly can defend in this one. James Maloney v Kieran Foran one of many highlights as the tri-colours beat Manly for the 3^rd time this year.

My tip: Roosters 18-14

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Elimination Final number 2 comes from ANZ Stadium on Sunday afternoon as the ‘Dogs host Wayne Bennett’s Newcastle Knights. Tune in, buckle up and stick around because this one will go down to the wire. The Knights spent the season perfecting their defensive structure and have done a pretty good job over the past fortnight. The Bulldogs have struggled with their attack this season. Showing bursts of flare at times, but never consistently.

These teams have near identical records with the Bulldogs only 1 premiership point better after 26 rounds. Canterbury start as favourites here, surprisingly and probably due to home ground advantage but this is a contest that will test their cohesion in attack, the fitness of their forward pack and their mental resolve. Newcastle have beaten the Bulldogs twice this year and will throw everything at them for 80 minutes. Upset on the cards.

My tip: Newcastle 20-16