Paully's Picks - Round 17

Brisbane Broncos v Cronulla Sharks

The grizzled old veterans from Cronulla travel north to Suncorp Stadium on Friday night to face the youth and exuberance of the Baby Broncos. The likes of Robson, Gibbs, Best and Ross have found a formula that works in the Shire this year and led by Todd Carney and Paul Gallen, find themselves sitting in 4th position on the ladder. This brings us to the difference between these two teams in your round 17 opener.

The Broncos have their spine intact and with Peter Wallace in control again, the home side will counter the Sharks' experience with speed and a little bit of superstar in Corey Norman. Once the comparisons die down, this Broncos' number 6 will be forging his own reputation and will continue his good form this week. Brisbane don't crack the Sharks easily, but will keep them at bay in defence and run away late with the ball.

My tip: Brisbane 20-6



Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights

Both, finally, winners last start to give hope to tortured fans and perhaps salvage a season to forget so far. The Eels host the Knights at Parramatta Stadium on Saturday night and the winner will be able to claim something they have not all season. A winning streak. Neither club has won consecutive matches in 2012 and before you thank me for that magnificent piece of research, allow me to blow your minds with a stern warning.

Keep your friends and family away from any pubs in Parramatta when this game finishes. Smart money says that Willie Mason will renew his alliance with former teammates Willie Tonga and Reni Maitua from the days of their 2004 premiership season. Smart money also says to get on the Knights here. They play with confidence and the Eels play without Jarryd Hayne which is enough to go against the home side for mine.

My tip: Newcastle 24-18



New Zealand Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys

The Cowboys have been preparing for this part of the season for many years now. Representative scheduling poses a huge threat to many sides' claim to the premiership and many before them have struggled after July. However, North Queensland seem to be better prepared this year. Coach Neil Henry now has two years away from the QLD origin team and this time of year is exactly why he quit that role. His focus now solely on the Cowboys.

So, without Thurston, Tamou, Scott and Tate, they travel to Mt Smart Stadium to face a Warriors team sitting just outside the 8 but boasting a team full of weapons. These weapons will be deployed to break through a brave but out-gunned Cowboys defensive line. They will hold on early but when Shaun Johnson and James Maloney get their share of possession, the home side will finish stronger.

My tip: New Zealand 22-12



South Sydney Rabbitohs v Penrith Panthers

With the injury to Luke Walsh last week against Parramatta, Ivan Cleary now has no choice but to blood the next wave of Penrith juniors and hope it sets a foundation for years to come. NYC superstar Harry Seijka will start for the Panthers at halfback while 21 year old Blake Austin joins him in the number 6 jersey. These two will have enthusiasm and energy on their side as Panthers fans get a preview of what 2013 might look like.

On Sunday though, this combination won't be enough to crack a disciplined Rabbitohs defence. The Bunnies held a full strength Broncos team at bay last week for the better part of 60 minutes and will not give up their current position in the top 8 to a couple of young upstarts from the foot of the mountains. Issac Luke sets the table and Adam Reynolds serves up a tasty dish for Souths fans as their season gets back on track and the visitors lose their 4th in a row.

My tip: South Sydney 24-10



Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

A quick comment on the TV rights issue and why it is so important for the Greatest Game of All. Rugby League is the most watched sport on television in Australia and that is because of games like this one. Only the brave will surface on Monday night at Canberra Stadium but for the rest of us, this is a matchup made to be watched on delay. You physically won't be able to put up with the pace without using fast forward.

Jamie Soward will find touch often, he'll take the two points often, there will be plenty of mistakes and you can bet your last dollar of the weekend that there won't be a lot of points scored. So, with my Raiders and Dragons bashing out of the way, the curse of the capital hits St George Illawarra again. They have not beaten Canberra since 2007 and most of those Raiders victories came as stunning upsets. Sam Williams finally gets the call back to 1st grade and the Raiders get the biscuits.

My tip: Canberra 14-10
for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/index.php

Paully's Picks - Round 16

Brisbane Broncos v South Sydney Rabbitohs 

The South Sydney Rabbitohs are developing a surprisingly similar make up to that of the Melbourne Storm. Stay with me people.... The Bunnies are winners of 4 from their past 5, are winning games with their defence and most importantly, are doing it all with previously unheralded 1st graders contributing to their success. The likes of Everingham, Hunt, Farrell, McQueen and Adam Reynolds have almost risen from nowhere this season.

Coach Michael Maguire and the resurgent Rabbitohs take this form to Suncorp Stadium on Friday night to face the Broncos in your match of the round. What an exhibition of quality football this will be. Brisbane were held scoreless last weekend after racking up a combined 90 points the previous fortnight. They will get back on track here with the return of some big names but it won't be easy. Souths stay close but never get ahead. 

My tip: Brisbane 20-18



St George Illawarra Dragons v Gold Coast Titans 

Possible panic stations for the Dragons. A club that prides itself on defence and has done so for the past 4 years seems to be facing its biggest test on this front after giving up plenty in the first half last week. Why panic now? Saints fans only had to worry about their team’s abysmal attacking record this year, but now they might be concerned with both sides of the ball. Back to back games in Wollongong could be the tonic, but most likely won't be.

The Titans make the long trip south for Friday Night Football and will bring with them a renewed feeling of confidence after winning 4 from their past 5. Some punters might be delirious with the visitors’ 4.5 start in this match and I might be one of them. Gold Coast's revival continues here as the Dragons simply cannot get their act together with ball in hand against the talented and speedy backline of the Titans.

My tip: Gold Coast 18-12



North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders

One of the great wins in club history last week for the Cowboys. A cracking game of football against their sunshine state rivals as they not only held Brisbane scoreless, but had a number of players backing up two days after origin; including both club captains. The challenge now is for Neil Henry to somehow get his players motivated for this match against the struggling Canberra Raiders at Dairy Farmers on Saturday afternoon.

The Raiders may be well rested coming off a bye but still have a spine in disarray and a less than impressive defensive record on the season. It will be a difficult test on the road against a battle-hardened opposition and one that the boys from our nation's capital will not have the nerve to pass. Keep an eye on the battle up front with four of the biggest and bravest in the game squaring off in Tamou, Scott, Shillington and TLL. Excellent.

My tip: North Queensland 30-20



Penrith Panthers v Parramatta Eels 

Saturday night at the foot of the mountains brings you the 85th meeting between these clubs, brings you some freezing cold temperatures at Centrebet Stadium and brings you another battle of the west to savour. By savour, we mean that the bad taste in your mouth after taking a mouthful of wooden spoon might take a few days to dissipate. A bottom of the table clash but one with plenty of pride on the line. 

Both clubs found themselves behind on the scoreboard early in their respective last starts; in fact, both were behind 18-0 in the opening moments so Stephen Kearney and Ivan Cleary won't be looking for the miracle cure this week. Their messages will be simple. "Somebody tackle somebody, please!" I'm paraphrasing, but smart money says you will need to keep it simple to motivate the struggling collection of footballers on show here. 

My tip: Penrith 21-20 



Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v The Melbourne Storm 

1 v 2 on the ladder and what a beauty this will be. No coach in the NRL has had more success against the might of Melbourne than Des Hasler. Des has a blueprint for overcoming the wrestle and overcoming the NRL's best in Cameron Smith. Granted, the 2012 Storm are unlike anything we have seen in the past decade with a blistering attack to go along with their swarming and controversial defensive style, but the 'Dogs will be well prepared. 

So, with the scene set in Mackay on Sunday afternoon at 2pm, a rematch of the round 7 grind between these clubs will no doubt bring a similar level of drama. Low scoring, action packed and the game won or lost in the middle of the field. The Bulldogs forwards will have to be sharp in their passing game against a rushing Storm defensive line. They will be and this will create enough space for the likes of Morris and Barba to continue their good form. 

My tip: Canterbury 14-12



Sydney Roosters v Manly Sea Eagles 

Your Women in League Round continues with the 'wine and cheese crowd' on Sunday afternoon at Allianz Stadium as the battle of the Silvertails rages on for the 120^th time. The Manly faithful will no doubt descend from their ivory towers in a busload to converge on the latte lovers of the Eastern Suburbs. Easy to make fun of Eagles and Roosters fans but we dare not do the same to their football teams. 

Whilst not dominating the season as they would have liked, these clubs have plenty of ability and are still aiming towards September football. The Roosters would have taken plenty of confidence after being robbed at Brookvale only a few weeks ago and the Eagles will be keen to atone for a heartbreaking Monday night loss to the Storm. Kieran Foran steps up a gear to find shades of his 2011 form and that is enough for the visitors to scrape home. 

My tip: Manly 22-16



Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers 

Monday Night Football comes from Hunter Stadium this week in the next chapter of the drama that is the Newcastle Knights 2012 season. More rumours of a clean out of personnel in Newcastle as ex players try to defend the culture of this once proud club. Unfortunately for Knights fans, current players are the ones they want defending this culture and more importantly, their try line. 

The Tigers, meanwhile, would still be struggling to focus on football this week but have named captain Robbie Farah to start. If he does, the Tigers will win behind a dominant front row surrounding him with Aaron Woods and Keith Galloway proving to big and too strong for the out-of-form big men in blue and red. The Knights, surely, must turn things around soon but it’s hard to get behind them with so many players uncertain about their future. 

My tip: Wests 20-12

for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Paully's Picks - Round 15

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

Fixtures like this one from Dairy Farmers Stadium on Friday night are exactly the reason the NRL introduced a rep weekend and why players are asking for more money to play representative matches. Thurston, Matt Scott, Tamou and the others backing up from Origin in Sydney on Wednesday night barely have a moment to scratch themselves before preparing for what should be a highlight of the season in this Queensland Derby.

Rather, it will be a coach’s nightmare as the race for the best painkillers overshadows what should be a cracking game of football. The Broncos themselves have a short turnaround but not as short as some. Judging by the talent on show here, the Origin players will still give everything they have and fans will be treated to a blinder. Peter Wallace and Corey Norman control proceedings perfectly to make sure JT sees plenty of traffic. Broncos too strong at the finish.

My tip: Brisbane 30-18

St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs

Finally, after 15 rounds of ups and downs, the Dragons come home to Wollongong. No better time than now to use their own backyard as a springboard towards the semi-finals and boy... do they need all the help they can get. The Dragon's attack has completely stalled to the point where any opportunities gained from good field position or smart ball control is quickly being wasted on an attack that is statistically, the worst in the NRL.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, sit 3rd on the ladder and are riding a 3 game winning streak where the highlights have been short, sharp explosions of attacking brilliance. They score in bunches and the Dragons must be at their defensive best if they are any chance in this local derby. Speaking of locals, the south coast faithful will be out in numbers and this could be enough to keep the 'Dogs from completely dominating, but not enough to click the Saints into gear.

My tip: Bulldogs 20-10

Cronulla Sharks v New Zealand Warriors

An absolute screamer from Toyota Stadium and your match of the round. The Warriors, as always, face the demons of a long road trip to face an inhospitable crowd. Add to that a short turnaround from a big Monday night win and you'd think, barring injury, the Sharkies would be a short price. Well, you'd be wrong. The Warriors, with 2 away wins from 6 starts this season (against the Eels and the Panthers), are mid-week favourites.

So, if Paul Gallen is fit – he will play his 150th minute in the space of 3 days, take his 40th hit up and make his 75th tackle and that’s when the bookies can pay up. Cronulla ride the wave of home ground advantage in atrocious conditions and come home with a soaking wet sail through the good form of Jeff Robson and a winning forward pack. Pity this match is buried in the 5.30pm timeslot on Saturday. We deserve better.

My tip: Cronulla 18-12

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Both teams coming off a week's rest and ready for a bottler on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium. The inclement weather might keep a few fans away from this match so the atmosphere may lack a bit of electricity, but make no mistake, sparks will fly when Chris Sandow gets his motor going and his mouth running. In fact, both halfbacks have a little niggle in them so expect a torrid affair from start to finish.

In the end, Parramatta's discipline will let them down. This has been a great area of improvement in South Sydney and one that can be attributed to new coach Michael Maguire's intense approach to coaching. Both Maguire and Eels coach Stephen Kearney come from the Melbourne Storm mentoring nursery but it’s Maguire who has his team playing the better football. They do so here with Issac Luke and Greg Inglis the standouts.

My tip: South Sydney 30-12

Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

More changes happening at Penrith and more big names being put in their place. It seems like Panthers coach Ivan Cleary is only going after the highest paid players on his roster to set an example to the rest of the club. First it was Michael Jennings playing park football, then Mayor of Penrith Luke Lewis loses the captaincy, now its Lachlan Coote who has simply been dropped from the first 17.

Does this inspire the other players? Or are they living in fear of losing their job? Looking at the Panthers record this season, probably fair to say they are lacking inspiration at this point with a 4 and 9 record. On Sunday afternoon at 2pm, they take this record to Skilled Park to face the Titans who have overcome their own demons this season to be winners of 3 out of their last 4. Let's make that 4 from their last 5. The Panthers just can't keep up.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-14

Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters

The Roosters, somehow, are facing their 5th consecutive loss and if we are picking apart each of these losses, a case might be made for how unlucky the chooks have been. Unfortunately, show me an unlucky football team and I'll show you a wooden spoon. In the words of the great Roy Slaven and HG Nelson, Rugby League is a harsh mistress and the future does not get any easier for the Bondi boys with a trip to Leichardt Oval this Sunday afternoon.

Whilst on paper this looks to be a supreme battle between two fantastic forward packs, in reality the Roosters are 9 point outsiders and $3.25 underdogs. The Balmain faithful have not welcomed Braith Anasta with open arms just yet and coupled with the Tigers good form and 7 match winning streak, Braith could be in for another long afternoon of being ignored by the referees and talking to his troops in their own in-goal.

My tip: Wests Tigers 23-10

Manly Sea Eagles v The Melbourne Storm

For fans of the biff, of flowing rivers of claret, of traditional softening up periods and of good old fashioned bar room brawls, let’s get this out of the way early. Adam Blair aint here and Adam Blair aint coming. Whilst his pugilist partner in Glenn Stewart is taking the field on Monday Night at Brookvale Oval, there will be no square up opportunities and no lingering aftershocks from that wonderful night in August last year.

Try telling that to the thousands in attendance as they call for the heads of every Storm player. A magnificent atmosphere awaits to finish off your round 15 fixtures in style as Melbourne face the Sea Eagles in another great chapter of the modern era's greatest rivalry. If DCE and Kieran Foran have their heads screwed on for this match, Manly should be too good at home in a low scoring affair but one with plenty of drama.

My tip: Manly 17-10


for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php

State of Origin 2012 - Game 2 Preview

New South Wales v Queensland

Sudden death football for the Blues; a chance to make more history for the Maroons. If it feels like we’ve been here before… well, we have. Déjà vu for New South Wales, with our collective breath being held as we hope beyond hope for a miracle. Unfortunately in the harsh reality that is Origin Football, there are no miracles.

Wednesday night at Homebush will see 80,000 odd Blues fans fuelled up and ready to hate. It’s just what we do now. Origin used to be a Wednesday night party, a mid-week session, a chance to catch up with mates on a school night. Now, it’s a journey through the darkest parts of your soul and a test of resilience and patience to see how long before you throw the remote control through the TV. It’s been a tough 7 years and this match will prove no different.

Game 2 will revolve around the ruck, the wrestle, and the right boot of Todd Carney… actually it’s his left boot but I had the whole “three Rs” thing going on, so please forgive. A probable wet track and a dour struggle will be the order of things and field position will be gold. No team can defend against this kind of talent for long periods of time and controlling the ball will be key for these players, individually.

Collectively, for New South Wales, the bigger challenge will be to keep up with Greg Bird. By far and away the Blues best in game 1, Bird dominated the middle of the field and was left stranded on a few occasions by some less than supportive team mates. Brett Stewart in particular will need to lift his support play a few notches if the home side are to post enough points to outscore the most potent attack in Origin history.

If New South Wales continue their ill-disciplined play and disrespect for the ball, as they have for so many years, then Queensland will pick up where they left off and simply allow the Blues to beat themselves. If Mitchell Pearce, Robbie Farah and the rest of the cockroach spine play as good as we know they can, perhaps miracles can happen.

My tip: NSW 12-8.

Man of the Match: Greg Bird