Paully's Picks - Round 15

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

Fixtures like this one from Dairy Farmers Stadium on Friday night are exactly the reason the NRL introduced a rep weekend and why players are asking for more money to play representative matches. Thurston, Matt Scott, Tamou and the others backing up from Origin in Sydney on Wednesday night barely have a moment to scratch themselves before preparing for what should be a highlight of the season in this Queensland Derby.

Rather, it will be a coach’s nightmare as the race for the best painkillers overshadows what should be a cracking game of football. The Broncos themselves have a short turnaround but not as short as some. Judging by the talent on show here, the Origin players will still give everything they have and fans will be treated to a blinder. Peter Wallace and Corey Norman control proceedings perfectly to make sure JT sees plenty of traffic. Broncos too strong at the finish.

My tip: Brisbane 30-18

St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs

Finally, after 15 rounds of ups and downs, the Dragons come home to Wollongong. No better time than now to use their own backyard as a springboard towards the semi-finals and boy... do they need all the help they can get. The Dragon's attack has completely stalled to the point where any opportunities gained from good field position or smart ball control is quickly being wasted on an attack that is statistically, the worst in the NRL.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, sit 3rd on the ladder and are riding a 3 game winning streak where the highlights have been short, sharp explosions of attacking brilliance. They score in bunches and the Dragons must be at their defensive best if they are any chance in this local derby. Speaking of locals, the south coast faithful will be out in numbers and this could be enough to keep the 'Dogs from completely dominating, but not enough to click the Saints into gear.

My tip: Bulldogs 20-10

Cronulla Sharks v New Zealand Warriors

An absolute screamer from Toyota Stadium and your match of the round. The Warriors, as always, face the demons of a long road trip to face an inhospitable crowd. Add to that a short turnaround from a big Monday night win and you'd think, barring injury, the Sharkies would be a short price. Well, you'd be wrong. The Warriors, with 2 away wins from 6 starts this season (against the Eels and the Panthers), are mid-week favourites.

So, if Paul Gallen is fit – he will play his 150th minute in the space of 3 days, take his 40th hit up and make his 75th tackle and that’s when the bookies can pay up. Cronulla ride the wave of home ground advantage in atrocious conditions and come home with a soaking wet sail through the good form of Jeff Robson and a winning forward pack. Pity this match is buried in the 5.30pm timeslot on Saturday. We deserve better.

My tip: Cronulla 18-12

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Both teams coming off a week's rest and ready for a bottler on Saturday night at ANZ Stadium. The inclement weather might keep a few fans away from this match so the atmosphere may lack a bit of electricity, but make no mistake, sparks will fly when Chris Sandow gets his motor going and his mouth running. In fact, both halfbacks have a little niggle in them so expect a torrid affair from start to finish.

In the end, Parramatta's discipline will let them down. This has been a great area of improvement in South Sydney and one that can be attributed to new coach Michael Maguire's intense approach to coaching. Both Maguire and Eels coach Stephen Kearney come from the Melbourne Storm mentoring nursery but it’s Maguire who has his team playing the better football. They do so here with Issac Luke and Greg Inglis the standouts.

My tip: South Sydney 30-12

Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

More changes happening at Penrith and more big names being put in their place. It seems like Panthers coach Ivan Cleary is only going after the highest paid players on his roster to set an example to the rest of the club. First it was Michael Jennings playing park football, then Mayor of Penrith Luke Lewis loses the captaincy, now its Lachlan Coote who has simply been dropped from the first 17.

Does this inspire the other players? Or are they living in fear of losing their job? Looking at the Panthers record this season, probably fair to say they are lacking inspiration at this point with a 4 and 9 record. On Sunday afternoon at 2pm, they take this record to Skilled Park to face the Titans who have overcome their own demons this season to be winners of 3 out of their last 4. Let's make that 4 from their last 5. The Panthers just can't keep up.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-14

Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters

The Roosters, somehow, are facing their 5th consecutive loss and if we are picking apart each of these losses, a case might be made for how unlucky the chooks have been. Unfortunately, show me an unlucky football team and I'll show you a wooden spoon. In the words of the great Roy Slaven and HG Nelson, Rugby League is a harsh mistress and the future does not get any easier for the Bondi boys with a trip to Leichardt Oval this Sunday afternoon.

Whilst on paper this looks to be a supreme battle between two fantastic forward packs, in reality the Roosters are 9 point outsiders and $3.25 underdogs. The Balmain faithful have not welcomed Braith Anasta with open arms just yet and coupled with the Tigers good form and 7 match winning streak, Braith could be in for another long afternoon of being ignored by the referees and talking to his troops in their own in-goal.

My tip: Wests Tigers 23-10

Manly Sea Eagles v The Melbourne Storm

For fans of the biff, of flowing rivers of claret, of traditional softening up periods and of good old fashioned bar room brawls, let’s get this out of the way early. Adam Blair aint here and Adam Blair aint coming. Whilst his pugilist partner in Glenn Stewart is taking the field on Monday Night at Brookvale Oval, there will be no square up opportunities and no lingering aftershocks from that wonderful night in August last year.

Try telling that to the thousands in attendance as they call for the heads of every Storm player. A magnificent atmosphere awaits to finish off your round 15 fixtures in style as Melbourne face the Sea Eagles in another great chapter of the modern era's greatest rivalry. If DCE and Kieran Foran have their heads screwed on for this match, Manly should be too good at home in a low scoring affair but one with plenty of drama.

My tip: Manly 17-10


for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php