My Final Blog Post; Paully's Picks - 2014 NRL Grand FInal.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Sunday’s decider is a throwback from the far reaches of history; from the depths of the cavernous halls of NSW Rugby League headquarters on Phillip Street; from its oldest archives with the dustiest books that preserve the long forgotten stories of our code. Ladies and gentleman, your 2014 Grand Final. The South Sydney Rabbitohs, since 1908, famous for being treated like mud after so long hailed as the ‘pride of the league’ – against the mighty Bulldogs, since 1935, the family club, the dogs of war, the entertainers.

Nothing re-captures the overlooked cultural cradle of rugby league more than our Sydney teams and their rivalries. The Bulldogs and the Eels have it; the Bulldogs and the Dragons have it; the Bulldogs and the Roosters have it. See any trends? More recently, since their resurgence, South Sydney have found an old hatred for Canterbury returning to the surface. Excellent. Not only is this is a traditional Sydney battle, but the fact that they are squaring off in a decider will solidify it as a wonderful rivalry for the next 10 years.

This week, however, there is something very special to play for, more than pride and hatred. Souths have had a magnificent season. They are, statistically, the best defensive unit in the NRL and have the nastiest pack of forwards this side of the 80s. Since losing to the Roosters in round 26, they’ve shown the maturity of a team that has learnt from two years of September losses. They’ve saved their best for the finals. A dominant performance to destroy both of last year’s Grand Finalists in the past two matches and even without Issac Luke in the squad for the decider, their machine knows no stopping.

The only thing that might stop them is a coach with a game plan that neutralises their size and ruck tactics. I’ll let you pick one. Des Hasler? Check. A month ago, Canterbury had no business playing September football. Now, boasting the scalps of Melbourne, Manly and the Panthers, they find themselves 80 minutes away from shocking the world. With an injured captain in Mick Ennis (anyone else get the feeling he is fine?), a hobbled halfback in Trent Hodkinson, an enigmatic five eighth in Josh Reynolds and a makeshift fullback in Sam Perrett, this is gonna be tough.

So, with Souths as heavy favourites, you can bet they’ll be clinical, focussed and well directed. We’ve heard them talk of following their ‘processes’ but you can bet Hasler and Jim Dymock have been formulating a plan to mess up this ‘process’ and when they do, Souths will need to react wisely. On Sunday night, as opposed to last year, they will. Quality leadership from Sam Burgess, Adam Reynolds and the gift to Redfern that is Greg Inglis will see the Bunnies overcome anything the Bulldogs can throw at them. They should be too strong in the last 15 minutes.

My tip: South Sydney 19-12

Clive Churchill Medallist tip: Greg Inglis

Paully's Picks - 2014 Grand Final Qualifiers

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Roosters

The game of the season. Friday night at Sydney Olympic Park and you won’t want to miss this. The reigning premiers, minor premiers and team of stars up against their oldest, biggest and most hated rivals. The Roosters have done it all in the NRL; a glamour club with an abundance of recent success and probably the most powerful club when it comes to influencing the officials at NRL headquarters. Souths are nearly their complete opposite.

The Bunnies are the dirty little brother that has made their way back from the brink of extinction and built themselves up from being bullied by the older sibling for the last 20 years. Well, if you wanna pick a fight with the ‘pride of the league’ these days, you better be ready for swift reprisals as they boast some of the toughest footballers in the NRL. The Burgess boys, Issac Luke, GI and a bench that looks like a prison inmate list. Better watch your back.

The Roosters won’t be hiding though. With the likes of Sam Moa in career best form, Frank Paul Nuuausala coming off the bench and the other usual suspects, the Chooks middle is anything but soft and they will meet their opponents with force. The forward battle, as always, will decide this one and when the Bunnies’ pack gets on top after an enthralling battle, they won’t lose focus as they have done in previous years. Souths have fallen short in the Finals for the past two seasons and now, they’ve learnt their lesson.

The difference being one Luke Keary. Souths have been tagged as predictable by everyone who thinks their opinion counts for something, including the ‘writer’ of these weekly ‘previews’ on LU. Now, they look mature and diverse. When Adam Reynolds is finished pinning the Chooks down in their own half with an all-pro kicking game, the Rabbitohs creative side will be unleashed. John Sutton becoming ball player and Keary sneaking around without being detected. That, and the almighty force that is Greg Inglis should see them home in a battle for the ages.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16

 

Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your second GF qualifier is a tantalizing prospect. Saturday night from ANZ Stadium and you better be ready for a nail biter. The Panthers, ravaged by injury and without the aid of any representative footballers on their current roster, somehow, are 80 minutes away from the big one. The Bulldogs, written off by the rugby league community when they finished the season with 7 losses from 9 games, have somehow found themselves favourites to make the GF here and on paper, have all the weapons to make it happen.

But the wrinkle in this equation in the unbelievable ability of Ivan Cleary to have his players ready to run a game plan, and his uncanny nous to make them better footballers. The likes of Matt Moylan, Dean Whare, Jamie Soward and James Segeyaro have had magnificent seasons and will terrorise the Bulldogs’ more favoured and heralded stars. Penrith won’t make any mistakes. They won’t lose this game through poor form or errors and that puts the onus on the opposition to play just as disciplined.

Canterbury are not known for this in 2014. They destroyed the Melbourne Storm a fortnight ago with a surprise attack and last week against Manly, well, I can’t remember much about that game so I’m not sure how they pulled it off. I remember meeting my mates inside Manly’s ‘tailgate party’ in Moore Park but then it gets a bit hazy. And just quietly, my friends, that tailgate party was a fantastic idea. If only every game could have that level of ‘entertainment’.

Moving on. We’ll see the underdog Panthers control this game from the kick off with nerves of steel and great leadership from Soward who has been through his share of big games – but when the boys from Belmore turn it up a gear, the Panthers may not be able to keep up. Canterbury’s mobility in the forwards has been their advantage in the Des Hasler era. It was the reason for their success in 2012. Now, they’ve found their mojo again and will be too good in the final moments for a gallant Penrith team.

My tip: Canterbury 13-12

Paully's Picks - NRL Finals Week 2, 2014.

Sydney Roosters v North Queensland Cowboys

A pity that one of these teams won’t be involved in the next fortnight of footy after this match. The two most entertaining squads in the competition and two teams that are coached the right way and play the right way. They’ve both peaked at the right time of the season and even though the Roosters were losers last week, they will only be rejunivated from this and ready to play for their season on Friday night in front of their home fans.

Anthony MInichiello breaks the Chooks’ all time record for games played and what a mighty captain and fullback he’s been. Joining the likes of RTS, SKD and Michael Jennings, the Count and his crew make up a formidable try-scoring machine and this back line is the best in the land. The defending premiers will be thankful that they won’t be forced into a grind, like they were against the Panthers last week.

The Cowboys? Well, a great disappointment that they won’t have Tariq Sims in the squad but with Gavin Cooper and Glen Hall, they have a combined 389 first grade games to guide this team up front. These two, combined with Australia’s best in Matt Scott, won’t have any problems matching the Roosters all-star forward pack, but they will struggle defending their line against waves of tri-coloured attacks out wide.

So, be ready for a beauty with the Roosters back to form and the poor old Cowboys losing another semi-final on the road. They will defend bravely and attack the home side with their usual flair, led by the NRL’s best in Johnathan Thurston, but it will be Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney who steer the minor premiers to a showdown with the Bunnies next week.

My tip: Roosters 24-14

 

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday Night from Allianz Stadium to see who faces the Panthers next week and this will be a cracker. The opening 15 minutes should tell us how tough the Sea Eagles really are without Anthony Watmough. No question, they are a brave bunch and have been for nearly a decade, but last week, their forwards were destroyed by South Sydney and now the Bulldogs’ pack have sniffed the blood and are high on confidence.

The likes of James Graham, Aidan Tolman, Greg Eastwood and Tony Williams will be joined by former co-captain Frank Pritchard to raise hell this week. Pritchard’s triumphant return from injury could spell the end of Manly’s season. If not in the forwards, then Manly’s right side defence could also spell their doom. A corridor that was exposed last week could see Josh Morris have a field day.

Rumours of infighting and people not getting along with Queenslander and halfback Daly Cherry-Evans are running rife. However, they get one more chance to disprove these theories and perhaps salvage a legacy of champions that dates back to the Matt Orford/Steve Menzies age. Otherwise, one of the greatest dynasties we've seen in the NRL could be over. The end of an era and all that.

With this pressure on them, Manly’s defence won’t be as brittle as Canterbury’s previous opponents were in the early going last week, so this one should turn in to a good old-fashioned bar room brawl; except for the punching; just the other stuff from a bar room brawl; petticoats, piano players, blokes getting thrown over the bartender and out into the dusty street, where you've parked your horse. That sort of stuff. If Manly can kiss and make up in the dressing room before kick-off, they may get one last crack at glory and pull off a stunner. If not, the ‘Dogs march on. 

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16