Paully's Picks - Round 24

Brisbane Broncos v The Melbourne Storm

Also known as the News Limited challenge, this fixture shows two of the NRL's modern day powerhouses. Although lately, the Broncos have been more shithouse than powerhouse and looking at the statistics of the past month, they smell even worse. Their last win coming against the Warriors 5 weeks ago and now 4 losses on the trot - including what must have been a painful experience for their fans against Parramatta at Suncorp.

A number of injuries to the Broncos unit might be a valid reason for this but with more changes to their line up, it will take a massive effort from Brisbane to upset the Storm on Friday night. This is not the time of year to be working on cohesion and Melbourne will benefit from a spine that has this in spades. Slater well rested, Smith too good, Cronk too classy. The visitors prove too clinical and Anthony Griffin wonders what happened to his season.

My tip: Melbourne 18-12


Canterbury Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

No fluke that every game the Bulldogs play these days is 'must watch' rugby league. They've recruited well over the years and we are now seeing the fruits of this labour that started before Des Hasler arrived at Belmore. Young Jackson and Finucane lured from regional NSW and plenty, it seems, from either Queensland or NZ. For those who have ever watched a match in the Canterbury junior competition, no surprise that the 'Dogs look elsewhere.

The Tigers depth has also been tested this year, but safe to say they did not pass with flying colours. In fact, also safe to say that if Robbie Farah does not play, they look like a high school touch football team. No offense intended towards any high school touch football teams, but you get my drift. Mick Ennis v Farah a highlight, as always, but the home side too strong up front and too quick out back. Dogs win 12 straight.

My tip: Canterbury 24-18


Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters

Last week, this column clumsily predicted "Panther Pride" would overcome the Raiders so in the pursuit of blind consistency, I reckon the Roosters are in a heap of trouble this week. Travelling from the Eastern Suburbs - to Canberra - for a 5.30pm game on Saturday - to face a team vying for a spot in the 8 - with temperatures in single figures!!?!?!.... No amount of unnecessary punctuation can explain how badly the visitors will handle this trip.

The Raiders finished over the top of a committed opponent last week and if their forward pack can handle an early onslaught from the Chooks big men, they'll do the same again here. The unsung names of McCrone and Williams teach their more famous and heralded counterparts in Pearce and Anasta a lesson in patience and control. The niggling habits of the Roosters forwards could start something against a tough Raiders pack. Sparks will fly.

My tip: Canberra 28-22

Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs

A big one from Toyota Stadium on Saturday night. Both clubs coming off losses so they'll be more than keen to avoid dropping two in a row. Not only did these two teams get nailed last week, but both the Sharks and the Bunnies’ attack looked impotent in the process. Considering their premiership aspirations, they'll be hoping to score more than 4 and 6 points respectively, this time out. A good test for the halves of both teams to bounce back.

Souths have more weapons across the park and with the return of Greg Inglis, have the most dangerous weapon of all. GI reignites the Bunnies and his combination with John Sutton and Issac Luke gets the visitors home. But only just. This could be a semi final preview with the like of Gallen and Crocker going head to head, Bryce Gibbs and Sam Burgess going nose to nose and if we are lucky, the return of Roy Asotasi to 1st grade. Enjoy.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16


New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

Fingers crossed the pay TV station showing this match uses the local commentators to call the match, rather than sending their own. Whilst we have plenty of time for the Russell's and Raymond's of the commentary world, nothing beats the home-town, one-eyed, hilariously baffling crew that usually call the games from Mt Smart Stadium. So, this burning hot topic will be resolved on Sunday at midday as the Warriors host the Panthers.

Can things get any worse for the home side? They've lost 5 in a row to rip the hearts out of their fans and tear their chances of another Grand Final appearance to shreds. The Panthers are not so different except that they did the same thing months ago and nobody cares anymore. Two teams in the same boat, paddling up the creek without a paddle and facing some troubled waters and rough seas ahead. That last 'sentence' has to be some sort of record.

My tip: Warriors 26-22


Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels

The corresponding fixture last year ended up deciding the winner of the Wooden Spoon. Credit to John Cartwright and the Titans for plenty of improvement this year but unfortunately for the Eels and their fans, nothing has changed. If, as they say, a team’s defence is a reflection of their attitude, then this band of blue and gold battlers must be as keen on defence as Chris Sandow is for pre-season training under Ricky Stuart next year. 

The Titans have too much to play for and at home, their defence will be solid enough and committed enough to handle a Parramatta outfit that average 25 points in attack over the past month. What fun they are having. The Nathan Hindmarsh farewell tour continues but this match will be one to forget for the Eels legend. The Titans forwards lift without Luke Bailey and keep alive the faint hope of semi final football.

My tip: Titans 32-18



Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights

Two clubs in form at the right time of year. The Knights travel to Brookvale Oval on Sunday to face a team they beat by plenty only a few weeks ago. Following that match, Manly lost an epic battle against Canterbury, but subsequently went on a 3 game road trip and came home with the scalps of the Warriors, Cowboys and South Sydney. Big wins, all of them and now, with 8 days rest, they finally come back to the Fortress.

Newcastle have the short turnaround after Monday night footy so will start as 8 or 9 point underdogs, but their style of play will keep this close. Bennett Ball will always carry you far and Wayne seems to have finally convinced the Knights that 'percentage' football is their best chance. They'll try all they can to slow down the Eagles but with momentum and a surging sea of maroon and white jerseys on the hill at Brooky, Manly can't be stopped.

My tip: Manly 20-16


St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys

The Dragons are 8-2 at home this year; 3-1 at Wollongong. Playing in front of their own fans seems to be the only good luck charm for the famous red V and as their season slips further and further into the abyss, a light at the end of the tunnel appears in the form of another game at WIN Stadium. This time, the Cowboys are coming to town and bring with them the best attack in the NRL, statistically speaking.

By contrast, the Dragons have the worst attack in the NRL; it's not even close. Whatever advantage they get from playing at home, they’ll need to get a double dose of it on Monday to win this one. They will.  On a freezing cold night, so far from home, in the bosom of Dragons territory, suddenly the might of the Cowboys’ forward pack aint so mighty and the greatness of Jonathan Thurston aint so great. Upset.

My tip: Dragons 22-18

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