Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Paully's Picks - Round 26


Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers
The spearhead of Queensland’s recent origin success and a shining example to all footballers of this era, Petero Civoniceva farewells his home fans on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium against Penrith. Considering the Broncos form of late, this match feels like a farewell to the season for both these clubs. No team has lost 6 straight going into the finals and won a comp - I've done no research to back that up, it just feels right.
The Panthers, having farewelled their fans in style last week, hop on a plane to Brisbane as $4.50 outsiders and nobody is giving them a chance. Credit to Ivan Cleary for instilling a bit of pride in his team and also creating a fair bit of cap space in the process. The future looks bright. Cannot say the same about the Broncos who are ending their season on a disastrous stretch but before Mad Monday’s inevitable call, they defend well enough here to win.
My tip: Brisbane 20-6

 

Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs
It’s Knights Old Boys' Day at Hunter Stadium on Friday night as Newcastle host the Bunnies in what will be the end of the home side's 2012 tilt. Whether their year is classified as a success or failure by the talking heads of rugby league TV (most of whom are all Newcastle born), nobody else cares cos they aint playing finals footy and the Rabbitohs most definitely are. Souths travel up the F3 with their confidence back intact.

They'll need it, too. The Knights will play with pride and a commitment that had them only a whisker away from beating the Cowboys in Townsville last week - goal kicking and penalties the difference in that one. This week, they play with a similar resolve and cause enough problems for the visitors to keep things very close but tough to tip against the Bunnies with that forward pack healthy and that bloke in the number 1 jersey.
My tip: South Sydney 20-16

 

Gold Coast Titans v Manly Sea Eagles
Saturday afternoon, 5.30pm on the Gold Coast at the very beginning of spring? The Titans faithful may not be out in force for this one, especially after the home side dropped their bundle last week and blew their shot. Add to that a visit from the reigning premiers / current premiership favourites / form team of the competition and you have the Gold Coast with a 7.5 start and about 6,000 people in the grand stand.

Pity, the Eagles are fun to watch. They play a lightning fast brand of football which, incidentally, is the complete opposite to their opponents in this match. Back rowers Watmough, Williams and Stewart attacking the edges whilst Bird, Minichiello and Ridge plug away with no real explosiveness. This will be the difference. If Manly are up for this match after winning 5 in a row and smelling the chance of a home semi, they could do some damage.
My tip: Manly 30-14

 

Canterbury Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters
The ‘Dogs return to Homebush to play for the Minor Premiership. It is special moments like this one where we really miss David Gallop and all he did for the NRL. Who else would be willing to put the JJ Giltinan Shield in the passenger seat of his BMW while he waits patiently, ready to deliver the trophy to either ANZ stadium or Leichardt Oval on Saturday Night???  If you can answer that, you have our new CEO.

A Canterbury win will ensure they finish first and with the Roosters very heavy underdogs’ for this match, the bookies are confident of a trophy presentation at Homebush at around 9.30pm. The visitors defence won't be up for the challenge and with the Dogs coming off their biggest loss of the season, it’s no wonder the boys from Bondi have already begun their Mad Monday celebrations. This could get ugly. Mick Ennis returns and the bite returns with him.
My tip: Bulldogs 32-10

 
Wests Tigers v The Melbourne Storm

A sad end to another wild season for the Wests Tigers. Arguably the most talked about club in the NRL this year, they've had a number of injuries mixed with emotional turmoil and forgettable performances in 2012. If, somehow, the universe turns on its axis and other results go their way, they still need to beat Melbourne by more than 14 points to sneak into the finals. Against the Storm, without Robbie Farah, the Tigers may not even score 14 points total.
Disappointing for the Black and Gold faithful and for Gareth Ellis, who plays his final game for the home side and what a 3 years it has been. A devastating runner of the football and one of the better back rowers in our game says farewell… Melbourne play with plenty of confidence after last Monday's miracle and get the win. Just on last Monday - what about the barrels on Sisa Waqa?? Overcalled the big three to go short side and set up the match winner! Fantastic.

My tip: Melbourne 18-16


New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders
The beginning of your Father's day triple header and for all you Dad's in our nation’s capital, this match from Mt Smart on Sunday afternoon should be all you need to make the day a beauty. The Raiders are on a high. They are rolling into the semi-finals with a 4 game winning streak behind them, and the Semi Finals very much in front of them. The Green Machine should take a bow with Williams and McCrone standouts over the past month.

By all rights, they should have no trouble with the Warriors who will be glad to see the end of an unfortunate year. Only a few short weeks ago, they were minutes away from beating the reigning premiers in Perth and getting themselves back in the top 8. Since, they have lost plenty and by plenty. Finally, to bid the loyal Warriors fans farewell this week, they unveil a brand new spine for your viewing pleasure. Dugan the standout.
My tip: Canberra 32-20

 

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys
Sunday afternoon at Toyota Stadium. What better way to celebrate a new lease on economic life for the Sharks than to win their final home game of the year - confirm their first finals appearance since 2008 and avoid a trip to Canberra. Depending on who you speak to, avoiding a trip to Canberra is standard procedure during the winter months but in the first week of September for sudden death football, don’t go anywhere near it.

The Cowboys come to town on a 3 match winning streak and may or may not bring with them the Australian props, the Australian five-eighth but still a good recent record at Shark Park. Cronulla's grinding style will be a good foil for the Cowboys and when starved of possession, the visitors will have no answer. Colin Best farewells the Sharks fans in style and both teams leave a little bit in reserve for next week's finals. Can’t wait.
My tip: Cronulla 22-16

 
Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons

And so, a season of suffering ends for Eels and Dragons fans alike. Two powerhouses Sydney clubs who haven’t hit the mark in 2012 meet each other in what would normally be a dead rubber; nothing to play for. This time, there's plenty to play for. One more chance to celebrate the career of a Parramatta, NSW and Australian legend in Nathan Hindmarsh and a chance for his teammates to send him off with a win.
Luke Burt also says farewell after a stellar career and we must not forget Ben Hornby and Dean Young. These departing Dragons had their lap of honour last week and really, if not for Hindmarsh, we wouldn’t be playing this game at ANZ. Vale Hindy and thanks for never taking it too seriously off the field, but always giving everything you had on it. Whatever happens on Sunday night, a bunch of good footy players hang up the boots.

My tip: Dragons 24-20

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