Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Paully's Picks - Round 21

St George Illawarra Dragons v The Melbourne Storm

Old rivals. Saints and the Storm will have a bloody good go at each other on Friday night in Wollongong; and for good reason. Melbourne have lost 4 in row and must be getting sick of it whilst the Dragons are struggling in their own way, but still only 2 points behind 8th position. Desperate times? Perhaps. Desperate measures? No. You won't see anything different from the two best defensive units of the past 5 years.
Times and results may have changed, but their philosophies have not so get comfortable and get ready for Wrestlemania. Not the WWE version with fireworks and ladder matches and 3 hours of entertainment... we're talking about the NRL version with rolling pins and chicken wings. Actually... there might be more similarities than we thought. Cameron Smith's 'ankle hold' looks surprisingly similar to a submission move which is quite apt because watching this game could make me 'tap out'.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12


Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

Ever noticed how, after a few losses, the media can turn every club into a soap opera style drama? Parramatta's senior players don't talk to the junior players?? The Tigers dressing room is split into sections where some hang out and some can't?? And now to the Roosters... halfback Mitchell Pearce is claimed to have delivered an ultimatum - either Brian Smith goes, or Pearce does...?? Rubbish – all of it. Since when did 1st grade footballers turn into a bunch of private school kids?
Don't answer that - this rant is over. Just like the Roosters chances of any success on the field this year and on Friday night, they host a team moving in the opposite direction. The Titans are back after crushing the Raiders in Canberra and then beating the Broncos at home. They win again on Friday night at Allianz with solid defence and a forward pack ready to take on the Bullies from Bondi. Nate Myles will be especially keen to send a message.

My tip: Gold Coast 24-18


Canterbury Bulldogs v North Queensland Cowboys

Coaches in the NRL seem to be really enjoying themselves this year. Perhaps a few of them got together in March and decided to use the same phrases for every interview in 2012 and by gum, it's hilarious. We've all come to expect at least one "under the radar" reference each week and now we've lost count of all the teams referred to as 'the benchmark' or 'the yardstick'. Well, on Saturday night, we will find out whose yardstick is bigger.
The 'Dogs host the Cowboys in what will be your match of the round. Canterbury are on an unbelievable 8 match winning run where their defence has ruled the town. At 5.30pm on Saturday they face the team with the best attack in the NRL. Who breaks first? The ‘Dogs. They’ll be missing two blokes that touch the ball plenty in Kasiano and Keating and whilst the ‘dogs managed to handle this adversity last week, the Cowboys will fire a lot more bullets.

My tip: North Queensland 18-16



Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers
This is where the season feels a bit too long for the Cronulla Sharks. Learning the hard way as so many have done before them that success in the NRL brings its own set of problems, the Sharks look tired. Injuries and losing players to rep season are part and parcel, but nobody expected a performance like last week's against the Raiders at Toyota Stadium. This Saturday Night, the boys from the Shire get a chance at redemption.

Paul Gallen and Jeremy Smith are named to return and the Panthers are coming to town. This has the bookies leaning heavily towards the Sharks and with upcoming road trips to Auckland and Newcastle; they'll be desperate to win at home. Almost as desperate as I am to tip correctly but unlike me, the Sharks know what they are doing and they bounce back from the horror and shame of last week to get their season back on track.
My tip: Cronulla 30-12



Manly Sea Eagles v New Zealand Warriors
The longest possible road trip that COULD be scheduled for the Warriors..... HAS been scheduled for the Warriors as they take on Manly this Saturday night in Perth. Is Ken Arthurson back in charge of the NRL? Seems like someone's done the Eagles a favour here and if you believe Geoff Toovey's post match comments last Friday, it’s about damn time. They were shafted. Everyone in the league community thinks so, because we all have a soft spot for Manly.

Since the sarcasm switch on my computer seems to be broken - let's get straight to the point. The Grand Final replay will be a beauty with both clubs keen to overcome tough losses last round. When the Warriors get over their jet lag, they'll be primed for this one but inconsistency haunts them again and the Eagles will be too good. A real highlight watching Maloney and Johnson against Foran and Cherry-Evans. Enjoy.
My tip: Manly 22-16



Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights
Having a top 8 semi-final structure in a 16 team competition has helped save face for these two teams. Both clubs have experienced some dark times this season with a number of losing streaks and more than one occasion of fans questioning the direction of the club. So, armed with the knowledge that you only have to turn up after June in the NRL these days, the Knights and the Raiders have a shot at the playoffs with nearly identical records.

Last weekend’s matches were almost like 'coming out parties' for both teams. The Knights came back from plenty down at Mt Smart while the Green Machine absolutely thumped the Sharks at Toyota Stadium. Big wins - and now the test of consistency comes again for Canberra as they hold the advantage at home. For mine, they ruin their chances again with poor discipline and underestimating the opposition. The Boyd/Mullen/ Buderus spine is warming up.
My tip: Newcastle 24-22



South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers
The Bunnies are rolling. Winners of their past 4 matches and scoring an impressive average of 33 points a game over that span, they now sit equal second on the ladder. (Not sure if I've ever said those words before). Not only did South Sydney overcome the Monday night hoodoo last week, they destroyed the Dragons in what many expected to be a close one and some experts even tipped as the upset of the week. Pity - there were plenty of them.

For the Tigers, their season rests in the weary hands of Robbie Farah. Their attack looks great when he has the ball, playing from the ruck; but over the past few weeks they've not looked very fluid when others are involved. If Robbie doesn't get the platform he needs to attack Souths' defence, the Tigers will struggle. They do. Souths are heavy on the accelerator these days and won't let up for this match. Peats and Merritt are ample replacements for Luke and Inglis.
My tip: Souths 30-18


Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels
A new coach for the Parramatta Eels and if you follow history, this usually means a big win for a struggling club. Usually. Interim coach Brad Arthur's first assignment is to take the Eels up to Suncorp Stadium for Monday Night football to face the Broncos. His first order of business was to bring back Ben Roberts from NSW cup and while this might confuse a few Eels fans, to the rest of us it says that Arthur is giving everyone a clean slate.

That slate is about to get very dirty. The Broncos will be keen to find some form after losing last week and halves Peter Wallace and Corey Norman, after receiving most of the criticism, will be out to atone. They do. Brisbane get off to a flying start through their forwards and they never look back. With a number of injuries to the Bronco backline, the likes of Hannant, Thaiday and Parker respond to the challenge and dominate up the middle.

My tip: Brisbane 25-12


for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

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