Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Paully's Picks - Round 18

Canterbury Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels

Rivalry round begins with what was once perhaps a rivalry, but now an absolute mismatch. The Eels might be good enough one day to perhaps recapture the old hatred that exists between these two famous Sydney clubs, but on Friday night at ANZ Stadium it will be one way traffic. In what must be an insult to the great Parramatta teams of the past, this 2012 version of the Eels will take no motivation from history and continue to defend like they have somewhere better to be.
The 'Dogs are rolling from 1 through 17 and if motivated for the 80 minutes, should be ahead by plenty at the final siren. If you are curious about what 'plenty' means.... The Eels have been given an 18.5 start with some betting agencies and considering the 'Dogs have been scoring more points than that in bursts of 15 minutes this season, it is probably a tad generous. Also, let this be the last time I use 'tad' in a sentence.

My tip: Canterbury 40-12

 
Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors come into this match as underdogs. Even after winning 3 of their past 4, the bookies are not impressed. Perhaps understandable though as the Broncos welcome back their representative players; are at home on Friday night; and have had two full weeks to prepare for what shapes up as a beauty and your match of the round. This will be fast paced throughout with some of the best young footballers in the NRL on display.

The dazzling footwork of Shaun Johnson and Corey Norman, the youthful aggression of Josh McGuire and Ben Matulino, all mixed with the experience boasted by both clubs; we have the makings of a classic. Brisbane were basically mugged last start against the Sharks who treated their young reserves as speed humps on their way to victory. The home side will be out to atone for this treatment in front of their home fans and that intent will be the difference.
My tip: Brisbane 28-22



The Melbourne Storm v North Queensland Cowboys
It seems almost scary to imagine what Craig Bellamy has cooked up this week as he prepares to bounce back from the Storm's biggest loss of the season. A spoonful of rage, a bucket load of anger, a tank full of blue language and you have a broth ready to set on fire at AAMI Park on Saturday afternoon in Melbourne. If his players respond, the Storm will be at their best defensively and this makes for a cracker against the visiting Cowboys.

Speaking of the boys from Townsville, there is no worse time to be travelling to 'Bleak City' than in the middle of winter, after the home side has been belted by 40. Thurston and company will freeze their proverbial chaps off and won't warm up in time to overcome a committed Melbourne defence. Cameron Smith returns to find enough weaknesses in the Cowboys to get his side home in a low scoring grind.
My tip: Melbourne 18-12


Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles

In your second 5.30pm match on Saturday and one with plenty of history to fit right into rivalry round, the Knights host the Eagles at Hunter Stadium. Footy fans will never forget the 1997 Grand Final and neither will the TV station showing this match. Indeed it was a beauty and wonderfully representative of the hatred that existed between the bourgeoisie from the Northern Beaches and the hard working miners of the Hunter.
Pity that none of the young men involved in this match would remember, but Manly coach Geoff Toovey would know exactly how nasty those times were. Fingers crossed that Timana Tahu and Steve Matai get a hold of each other to turn back the clock but unfortunately is seems that times have changed. The Knights attack has not. It remains as stagnant as it was early in the season and the Eagles will benefit from a glut of possession and come away with a win.

My tip: Manly 25-12


Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers

Never has the influence of Robbie Farah been more evident than in the past month. The Blues' best over three games in the origin series, Farah almost single handedly won the decider through his attack last week; and led the way with his defence in game 2. For the Tigers, he's proven to be more than their hooker and captain. Farah has fronted the media to face rampant criticism earlier this year and defended his teammates without hesitation.
Wests have lost their past three matches without him after winning 7 in a row. Lucky enough for the Tigers faithful in Campbelltown this Saturday night, Robbie is back. Even luckier for everyone wearing black and white and gold, they play the Panthers. Losers of their past 4 matches and struggling for morale after the media circus around Luke Lewis this week, Penrith will struggle to keep up. The Tigers bounce back.

My tip: Wests 30-14


Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans

The Green Machine have won three from their past four and more importantly, two in a row against noted defensive specialists, the Dragons and the Storm. The era of the grind is over as Sam Williams joins Josh McCrone to put on the free-wheeling football we've been waiting for since that dark day when the very first wrestling coach was hired. And yes, I’ve just paid homage to the Canberra Raiders for the emergence of a new era. Deal with it.
Hyperbole aside, it’s always a tough road trip to our nation’s capital and faced with a Raiders team high on confidence, this is a very big ask for the Titans. John Cartwright has them within a whisker of the top 8 after a horrendous start to 2012 and he will again have them ready for this match; but very hard to tip against the home side here. William Zillman returns to the city that made him famous but he goes home disappointed. And yes, I just called William Zillman famous.

My tip: Canberra 24-20


St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks

One of the last remaining 'local derbies' in the NRL and how fitting for it to be played on the Sunday afternoon of Rivalry round. WIN Stadium in Wollongong will be thumping at 2pm and the out of form Dragons might even draw a big crowd with the visiting Sharks bringing with them a travelling band of faithful supporters. Not a long drive through the 'nasho' but long enough for them to build that resentment the Sharks fans seems to have for their southern Sydney rivals.
And rightly so. The Dragons have posted some very big wins over the past few years of this rivalry until the resurgent Sharks taught them a lesson in round 6 this year. The challenge this time will be for Cronulla to bounce back from their Monday night marathon last week. They do. Saints attack still struggles and with their season on the brink, cannot break through the visitor’s defensive line. Carney the difference in a tight one.

My tip: Cronulla 18-12


Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs

In the 205th meeting between these clubs (thank you interwebs), the Roosters host the Rabbits at Allianz Stadium on Monday night to finish off Rivalry Round part 1. Brian Smith and his men have plenty of work to do mid-week if they are to be any chance here. The Bunnies are rolling along this season and sit equal 4th on the ladder but more impressively, their style of play has been consistent throughout 2012.

They do not fade in and out of games and are disciplined for 80 minutes, every week. Speaking of discipline, we've all heard about the Roosters troubles with the whistle blowers this season and if they can't rectify this part of their game, or their struggling defence, or their morale, then its curtains for the Bondi boys. Adam Reynolds continues his good form and the Bunnies forward pack fire right up for this one as they seek revenge for that round 1 heartbreaker.
My tip: South Sydney 34-18
 


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