Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Paully's Picks - Round 5, Heritage Round

Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights

Get through your sets; kick to the corners; play mistake-free football and control the ruck.... both teams are coached by men who live and breathe the basics. "Bennett Ball" and "Bellamy Ball" may look boring to some, but these coaches’ success cannot be denied. Wayne Bennett has made a change to his forward pack with Richie Fa'aoso starting up front. Along with Kade Snowden, we have two very hard and very straight ball carriers whose purpose will be to bend the Storm defensive line and minimise wrestling opportunities for the home side.
Challenge accepted. This match will be a battle of ruck tactics and speed of the play-the-ball. If Snowden and Fa'aoso are successful, Jarrod Mullen will have all the space he needs but if Melbourne wins the wrestle, as always, they win the game. Either way I'm tipping some niggle in the ruck with both packs fully aware of the task at hand and both hookers with very good memories. Mullen's kicking game v Billy Slater a highlight for the tacticians out there.
My tip: Storm 13-12



Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons
A rematch of last year’s epic semi-final. A golden point thriller only decided when Darren Lockyer slotted the game winning field goal with one half of his face cracked open. Obviously this match will not have the same intensity, but a Friday night beauty from Suncorp nonetheless. The Dragons are coming off an impressive performance against the reigning premiers but it will be difficult to back up after playing in such a superb and draining encounter.
This is where Brisbane have the edge and why they are slight favourites. Peter Wallace is once again flying under the radar as one of the most controlled and intelligent halfbacks in the game. Both Wallace and opposing halfback Ben Hornby will play chess masters here and the game within the game will be a thing of beauty. Wallace gets the 2 points on the back of a dominant display from the NRL's most lethal back row in Glenn, Thaiday and Gillett. Top shelf rugby league.
My tip: Brisbane 18-14



Penrith Panthers v Cronulla Sharks
I'm now punting 0 from 4 on the Sharks. This means that a) my tipping is about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike and b) the following paragraph of 'opinion'... and we use the term loosely.... may as well be written by a Peruvian Guinea Pig. They could probably tip better. So here goes... I'm getting back on the Sharks and this time I'm staying on them. The promotion of Jeff Robson to the starting halfback role is a stroke of genius by Shane Flanagan.
Robson may not get much attention but he is defensively sound, has played in a Grand Final, won't take possessions away from Todd Carney and will never shy away from yelling at his forwards. Speaking of the Sharks forwards, they will outplay the Panthers pack led by the rugby league machine that goes by the name of Paul Gallen. The Panthers will start strong at home but 40 tackles and 30 hit-ups later, Gallen stands victorious and the Sharks are winners of 3 in a row.
My tip: Cronulla 24-18



Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles
Essentially, this is the only match that qualifies for "Heritage Round" status, so in honour of fallen clubs who actually did have a proud heritage... i.e. the Steelers, Bears and Magpies, let's ignore every other match this weekend and call this one the match of the round. Why? Watching Parramatta play football this season and then watching the backlash from fans and talking heads alike has been a great source of comedy for everyone who doesn’t actually support the Eels.
This match should be no different. Chris Sandow and Ben Roberts continue to their stand-up routine whilst the Eels forwards simply cannot catch a lucky break. This week? Jarryd Hayne returns but defending premiers and losers of their last two, the Manly Sea Eagles come to Parra Stadium. Or perhaps, considering the state of the playing surface at the Eels home ground, they have to play this match in the car park... should be plenty of space out there. Tough times ahead for Hindmarsh and company.
My tip: Manly 30-12

  

Sydney Roosters v New Zealand Warriors
Another team off to a slow start in season 2012, the Roosters have largely avoided criticism at this early stage of the year. Perhaps because they have somehow won two from four. One of those wins was a miracle against the Rabbitohs in round one and other could have been one of the worst games of footy ever played. So, moving on from exaggeration and getting to the point, Brian Smith does not look like a man in a panic, and neither do the Roosters players.
In fact, both clubs seem like they have bigger plans for September and are simply chugging along at this stage, but both clubs are capable of an exciting brand of football and that's what we see here. The Roosters’ lack of urgency plays into the Warriors hands, as does the open brand of football played at Allianz stadium on Saturday night. Shaun Johnson and Feleti Mateo relish the freedom and take over when it counts.
My tip: Warriors 30-20



Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bulldogs
What a proud history between these clubs and what a shining example of the marketing genius that is this week's 'Heritage Round". These teams have played each other a whopping 7 times and it must be said, nothing can really compare to this. So, to the lovely people of the Gold Coast and the faithful Bulldogs fans making the trek up to Robina, brace yourselves for centuries of history coming together at 2pm on Sunday afternoon.
Sarcasm aside..... both clubs are without their starting halfbacks and playmakers so we could have a rabble on our hands here as Jordan Rankin inherits a team on the skids and Kris Keating gets another chance to resurrect his first grade career. The Titans have a good chance to turn their season around and give their fans a reason to turn up, but they'll need more than a chance. Frank Pritchard and Ben Barba go to town as the 'Dogs bounce back from their first loss of the season and win big.
My tip: Canterbury 30-12



Wests Tigers v South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Tigers have heard it all this week. They are 'soft', 'horrible', 'pathetic' and to quote the League Unlimited forum.... "Weak as p__s". Fans are turning on them, Tommy is unloading on them, the universe is collapsing on them but through it all, Benji won't give up on them. The emotional and spiritual leader of the club, Marshall continues to protect his teammates in the face of unrelenting pressure and this could only be a good sign for fans.
Speaking of Benji, important to note that he has been essentially knocked unconscious two weeks in a row without mention, and without protection from his forwards. This is probably the most surprising from the Tigers. If they don't toughen up this week against a rampaging South Sydney forward pack, it could get worse. It does. Souths are improving every week and have a good balance of youth and experience. Inglis and Burgess the standouts in a quality win for the Bunnies.
My tip: South Sydney 30-20


Canberra Raiders v North Queensland Cowboys
One of the toughest road trips of the season for the Cowboys. They've won 3 times in 14 starts at Canberra Stadium with the most recent victory coming in round 13 last year; a 40-24 thumping after being down 22-0. On that day, the comeback was led by a rampaging Tariq Sims and a fired up forward pack that ran over the top of the tiring Raiders. You can bet the Green Machine will start well again on Monday night in front of their home fans.
This time, they hold on. The visitors travel without young Sims and more importantly without their co-captain and best forward, Matt Scott. This puts them in a hole they can't get out of and puts the Raiders back on the map with their 3rd win of the season and a reminder to everyone how dangerous they were two years ago; before Terry Campese's knee gave way. Keep an eye on Reece Robinson, member of the Lebanese National Rugby League team and star of last week’s win at Campbelltown.
My tip: Raiders 26-20


For live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

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