Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Paully's Picks - Round 3, 2012

St George Illawarra Dragons v Wests Tigers

We love a sub-plot in the NRL, don't we? Living in hope that despite the many, many changes our great game has experienced, deep down we long for the golden age of Rugby League when two Sydney clubs genuinely hated each other and displayed this hatred on the field. Alas, you will not see any of the Dragons players go after Tim Moltzen in the opening exchanges on Friday night at Kogarah. A shame, really.
Gone are the days of the ‘Traditional Softening Up Period’, gone are the days when the word 'rivalry' meant that two teams hated each other, rather than tweeted each other and gone are the days when I can actually tip a game of footy correctly. So, to that end, I'm putting my gun back in the holster and going for the home team. Kogarah is a tough place for visitors and Saints will bounce back from a horrendous performance last week.
My tip: Dragons 18-16



Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos
Beware Wayne Bennett fans - the following material contains some Bennett Bashing.... Is it just me or does anyone else think the Knights attack was pretty entertaining last year, compared to being slightly, well, boring this year. Change is inevitable, yes; but new coach Bennett did not inherit a rabble, like he did with the ill-disciplined and inconsistent Dragons of 2007. In fact, you could say the Knights were only missing a couple of good forwards.
So, instead of tweaking an already talented Newcastle team, their new coach seems to be starting from scratch, which means their attack may not kick into top gear until July. If so, the Broncos defence will enjoy a night out in the Hunter on Friday and bounce back from a last minute loss in round 2 to the Cowboys. Highlights in this one include the Hodges v Tahu matchup and Akuila Uate v the Bronco's kick chase for 80 minutes of pure entertainment. A beauty.
My tip: Broncos 20-12 


Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm
Something terrible has to happen to the Storm if the Titans are any chance of winning this game. And by terrible, I mean, ridiculous. And by ridiculous I mean something along the lines of franchise-wide food poisoning. Perhaps the Storm's in-flight meal is not the beef/chicken they assumed it would be... perhaps an bacteria outbreak in their surfers paradise hotel, perhaps Craig Bellamy is asked a question about the 'chin-strap' upon arrival at Coolangatta airport and in the ensuing rage, he pulls out a machine gun.
Perhaps, but probably unlikely. So, aside from any instances of 'Robina Belly' or some sort of media mass murder, the Storm for mine. Even if Titans halfback Scott Prince can miraculously find his old form and get the club's attack in order, their defence is not up to handling Smith, Slater and Cronk for 80 minutes on Saturday afternoon. Judging by the home side's efforts defending their line last week, this could get ugly.
My tip: Storm 24-6


North Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels
Watching the Parramatta team play this year, you can't help but feel they would make a fantastic touch footy team. Chris Sandow and Ben Roberts can be elusive and their young wingers are fast in open spaces. However, unfortunately for the Eels, I don't think anyone plays touch footy anymore; so maybe Tag is a better option for this famous Sydney club.
To dispense with the nastiness, it must be said that any team with a new scrum base combination will take time to gel so we remain hopeful that the Eels can turn the corner, but it won't be this weekend. The Cowboys are elite. They have a proven spine, the world’s best half and a chip on their shoulder from a forgettable round 1 performance. All signs point to Saturday night being 'all you can eat seafood' night at Dairy Farmers.
My tip: Cowboys 30-14


New Zealand Warriors v Canterbury Bulldogs
Your Match of the Round and part 1 of a Sunday afternoon triple header that will help you ignore any ideas of watching millionaires drive really fast around Melbourne for 4 hours. Forget about Albert Park and focus on Mount Smart Stadium as the undefeated Bulldogs head across the Tasman to face the Warriors. Two evenly matched premiership contenders and a whole bunch of superstars across the park.
The Warriors come off an impressive performance last week where they picked apart the Eels defence for 80 minutes. Fair to say at this point that the 'Dogs defence will be tested to a much higher degree than they have experienced so far this season and this is where the home side's advantage lies. Mateo, Johnson and Maloney will attack the edges of the visitors defence more times than the ‘Dogs can hold out. Shaun Johnson the difference but it won't be easy.
My tip: Warriors 24-20


Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders
For those of you with pay TV access and harbouring plans to get involved in all 3 matches on Sunday, this is where your motivation to watch 6 straight hours of Rugby League will be tested. The 2pm game is a tough one. You might be fighting the urge for a nap after the hearty Sunday lunch, you might see that only 4,000 odd fans have turned up to Allianz Stadium or, strangely enough, you might not have had a punt on this game.
They are all excuses, really. Nowhere else in the world will you see this many blokes wanting to knock the stuffing out of each other. The unnaturally huge forwards from our nation's capital will rip in as usual but this ferocity will be met with joy by the likes of JWH, Martin Kennedy and Frank Paul Nuuausala. All makes for a violent encounter in the East but after the big men have had their say, it will be Josh Dugan and Terry Campese who shine for the visitors.
My tip: Raiders 30-20


Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney are 0 from 2 to start season 2012 and coach Michael Maguire has now begun tinkering with his line-up. Usually, changes this early in the year would be a bad sign for any club but these changes seem only cosmetic with the Bunnies talented forward pack remaining untouched. This is where they have an advantage on Sunday afternoon at Centrebet Stadium and this is where they open their account for the year.
Issac Luke starts at hooker and his aggression will compliment the likes of Burgess and Crocker as the visitors show a desperation not seen from the famous red and myrtle green for some years. Defence will be the key in this match... and it will have to be because you won't see anything in the order of eye-catching attack from these two clubs. The Reynolds and Sutton combination continues to struggle and the Walsh/Burns combination... well.. it continues.
My tip: South Sydney 14-12


Cronulla Sharks v Manly Sea Eagles
The few bright spots in recent seasons for Cronulla have come via huge upset victories on Monday Night Football, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Bookies give them a slim chance of victory which means a slim chance I’ll be tipping the Sharks three weeks in a row. They've been close in weeks one and two, but unfortunately for the Shire faithful and my back pocket, not close enough.
The defensive minded Shane Flanagan has chosen a defensive minded halfback in Jeff Robson to give Todd Carney the freedom he needs to excel at number 6, but it won't matter. The reigning premiers will take the home side's best shot in the first half and return serve with plenty of points in the second half. Brett Stewart the standout from another blistering performance by Daly Cherry Evans and Kieran Foran.
My tip: Manly 30-16


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