Paully's Picks - Round 24

Brisbane Broncos v The Melbourne Storm

Also known as the News Limited challenge, this fixture shows two of the NRL's modern day powerhouses. Although lately, the Broncos have been more shithouse than powerhouse and looking at the statistics of the past month, they smell even worse. Their last win coming against the Warriors 5 weeks ago and now 4 losses on the trot - including what must have been a painful experience for their fans against Parramatta at Suncorp.

A number of injuries to the Broncos unit might be a valid reason for this but with more changes to their line up, it will take a massive effort from Brisbane to upset the Storm on Friday night. This is not the time of year to be working on cohesion and Melbourne will benefit from a spine that has this in spades. Slater well rested, Smith too good, Cronk too classy. The visitors prove too clinical and Anthony Griffin wonders what happened to his season.

My tip: Melbourne 18-12


Canterbury Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

No fluke that every game the Bulldogs play these days is 'must watch' rugby league. They've recruited well over the years and we are now seeing the fruits of this labour that started before Des Hasler arrived at Belmore. Young Jackson and Finucane lured from regional NSW and plenty, it seems, from either Queensland or NZ. For those who have ever watched a match in the Canterbury junior competition, no surprise that the 'Dogs look elsewhere.

The Tigers depth has also been tested this year, but safe to say they did not pass with flying colours. In fact, also safe to say that if Robbie Farah does not play, they look like a high school touch football team. No offense intended towards any high school touch football teams, but you get my drift. Mick Ennis v Farah a highlight, as always, but the home side too strong up front and too quick out back. Dogs win 12 straight.

My tip: Canterbury 24-18


Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters

Last week, this column clumsily predicted "Panther Pride" would overcome the Raiders so in the pursuit of blind consistency, I reckon the Roosters are in a heap of trouble this week. Travelling from the Eastern Suburbs - to Canberra - for a 5.30pm game on Saturday - to face a team vying for a spot in the 8 - with temperatures in single figures!!?!?!.... No amount of unnecessary punctuation can explain how badly the visitors will handle this trip.

The Raiders finished over the top of a committed opponent last week and if their forward pack can handle an early onslaught from the Chooks big men, they'll do the same again here. The unsung names of McCrone and Williams teach their more famous and heralded counterparts in Pearce and Anasta a lesson in patience and control. The niggling habits of the Roosters forwards could start something against a tough Raiders pack. Sparks will fly.

My tip: Canberra 28-22

Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs

A big one from Toyota Stadium on Saturday night. Both clubs coming off losses so they'll be more than keen to avoid dropping two in a row. Not only did these two teams get nailed last week, but both the Sharks and the Bunnies’ attack looked impotent in the process. Considering their premiership aspirations, they'll be hoping to score more than 4 and 6 points respectively, this time out. A good test for the halves of both teams to bounce back.

Souths have more weapons across the park and with the return of Greg Inglis, have the most dangerous weapon of all. GI reignites the Bunnies and his combination with John Sutton and Issac Luke gets the visitors home. But only just. This could be a semi final preview with the like of Gallen and Crocker going head to head, Bryce Gibbs and Sam Burgess going nose to nose and if we are lucky, the return of Roy Asotasi to 1st grade. Enjoy.

My tip: South Sydney 20-16


New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

Fingers crossed the pay TV station showing this match uses the local commentators to call the match, rather than sending their own. Whilst we have plenty of time for the Russell's and Raymond's of the commentary world, nothing beats the home-town, one-eyed, hilariously baffling crew that usually call the games from Mt Smart Stadium. So, this burning hot topic will be resolved on Sunday at midday as the Warriors host the Panthers.

Can things get any worse for the home side? They've lost 5 in a row to rip the hearts out of their fans and tear their chances of another Grand Final appearance to shreds. The Panthers are not so different except that they did the same thing months ago and nobody cares anymore. Two teams in the same boat, paddling up the creek without a paddle and facing some troubled waters and rough seas ahead. That last 'sentence' has to be some sort of record.

My tip: Warriors 26-22


Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels

The corresponding fixture last year ended up deciding the winner of the Wooden Spoon. Credit to John Cartwright and the Titans for plenty of improvement this year but unfortunately for the Eels and their fans, nothing has changed. If, as they say, a team’s defence is a reflection of their attitude, then this band of blue and gold battlers must be as keen on defence as Chris Sandow is for pre-season training under Ricky Stuart next year. 

The Titans have too much to play for and at home, their defence will be solid enough and committed enough to handle a Parramatta outfit that average 25 points in attack over the past month. What fun they are having. The Nathan Hindmarsh farewell tour continues but this match will be one to forget for the Eels legend. The Titans forwards lift without Luke Bailey and keep alive the faint hope of semi final football.

My tip: Titans 32-18



Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights

Two clubs in form at the right time of year. The Knights travel to Brookvale Oval on Sunday to face a team they beat by plenty only a few weeks ago. Following that match, Manly lost an epic battle against Canterbury, but subsequently went on a 3 game road trip and came home with the scalps of the Warriors, Cowboys and South Sydney. Big wins, all of them and now, with 8 days rest, they finally come back to the Fortress.

Newcastle have the short turnaround after Monday night footy so will start as 8 or 9 point underdogs, but their style of play will keep this close. Bennett Ball will always carry you far and Wayne seems to have finally convinced the Knights that 'percentage' football is their best chance. They'll try all they can to slow down the Eagles but with momentum and a surging sea of maroon and white jerseys on the hill at Brooky, Manly can't be stopped.

My tip: Manly 20-16


St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys

The Dragons are 8-2 at home this year; 3-1 at Wollongong. Playing in front of their own fans seems to be the only good luck charm for the famous red V and as their season slips further and further into the abyss, a light at the end of the tunnel appears in the form of another game at WIN Stadium. This time, the Cowboys are coming to town and bring with them the best attack in the NRL, statistically speaking.

By contrast, the Dragons have the worst attack in the NRL; it's not even close. Whatever advantage they get from playing at home, they’ll need to get a double dose of it on Monday to win this one. They will.  On a freezing cold night, so far from home, in the bosom of Dragons territory, suddenly the might of the Cowboys’ forward pack aint so mighty and the greatness of Jonathan Thurston aint so great. Upset.

My tip: Dragons 22-18

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Paully's Picks - Round 23

The Melbourne Storm v Gold Coast Titans

Ya kinda want the semi's to start now don't ya? Any team worth their salt and worth a punt for the premiership is in the 8 and the rest can only hope to be cannon fodder if they sneak in to the finals. So, we should shorten the season and have standalone Origin matches. Cool with everyone? OK. Round 23 kicks off with a Melbourne team that have crawled their way through the rep season, and a Titans team that have finally stood up.

Its been a tough year for John Cartwright and his crew but they have fought back; this latest surge from the Robina boys is timed perfectly. Speaking of surges, they'll need an almighty one this Friday night at AAMI Park to cause an upset and whilst they always play well again the Storm, victory is a different proposition altogether. Things are back to where they should be as Melbourne defend as we know they can and run away late.

My tip: The Melbourne Storm 22-10

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles

The timing of this fixture couldn't be more perfect. Along with the swell of momentum and support behind the Bunnies comes the same amount of criticism and most of these are about South Sydney's ability to handle pressure in big games. So, testing themselves against the reigning premiers should answer these questions on Friday night at Bluetongue Stadium. Your match of the round.

The Eagles sit 4th on the ladder and more importantly, at a moment when their back-to-back premiership chances looked thin, have come up with two massive victories in the last fortnight. Over to Perth and up to Townsville, they found ways to win. Now north to Gosford, Manly must be exhausted but as always, will stay in the hunt until the 80th minute and longer if needed. This one decided in the final moments with Souths holding on in a beauty.

My tip: South Sydney 21-20

Parramatta Eels v Sydney Roosters

Team 16 up against team 14 scheduled for the 5.30pm Satdi game. The notorious black hole of fixtures every weekend makes this one even more interesting so if you've just finished a horrible day on the punt, get ready to go again as the Bondi boys travel west to Parramatta Stadium. Markets midweek suggest a close one but picking the winner might not be your best bet. The Eels and the Roosters are the two worst defensive teams in the NRL.

What rugby league greatness awaits us in this one? The mind boggles. Parra average 28 points allowed per game this year while the chooks let in about 25. The forecast rain might keep this match restricted to less than a cricket score so get your bets on before the clouds start looming. Jokes aside, the Nathan Hindmarsh Farewell Tour continues so Eels fans should fill the stadium to watch one of the best ever and pay homage as they should.

My tip: Sydney Roosters 30-24.

North Queensland Cowboys v New Zealand Warriors

A sad finish to 2012 for the once mighty Warriors but things aren't all beer and skittles in Townsville either. Thurston and the Cowboys have lost two in a row against top 8 teams and are in need of a confidence booster. The first 20 minutes of this match will be a window into the soul of both clubs. Will the Warriors have anything left after a heartbreaking month of disasters? And will the Cowboys be ruthless enough to punish the visitors if they don't?

Saturday night at Dairy Farmers Stadium will be unforgiving to New Zealand, especially with so many changes to their line-up. Cohesion will be an issue, their motivation will be fragile and their defence will be challenged for 80 minutes. A big test of character for the Warriors after getting destroyed at home last week with their season on the line. Too much to overcome for the visitors as the Cowboys put in a big one.

My tip: North Queensland 32-12

Wests Tigers v St George Illawarra Dragons

The last meeting between these clubs, round 3 this year at Kogarah Oval, was punctuated by the Tim Moltzen story and his defection back to the Tigers after signing with Saints. How quickly we move along in Rugby League. Now, nobody cares and these two teams have shown in recent weeks that they need more than Tim Moltzen to find success. The Dragons came apart last week; at a moment when they could have saved their season.

The Tigers have only just resurrected their season, but still remain in poor shape with an unimpressive defensive record and winning only two of their last seven matches; against the Panthers and the Eels. So, at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night, the Tigers hope to stay in the semi-final picture while the Dragons focus on mathematical equations. Saints rarely win away from Kogarah or Wollongong anymore and the same happens here. Robbie Farah the standout.

My tip: Wests 20-18

Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders

Aside from Michael Gordon, the Panthers entire roster would all hoping for jobs next year and with their Toyota Cup squad sitting equal third on the ladder, there's plenty of pressure. They'll play well at home with this motivation and bounce back strongly from a big loss in Melbourne last week, you can be sure. One thing we cannot be sure of is the Green Machine. Inconsistency plagues the boys from Canberra so bookies have them as outsiders.

The saying, "you're only as good as your last game" should mean that the Raiders win by 50 but whoever coined this saying should have their brain removed. Forever. I've seen it done overseas. It’s a simple operation. Takes about 2 hours….. To digress... The Luke Walsh/Lachlan Coote experiment continues improving and with Panther Pride on the line, the home team comes up with the goods. Tim Grant v Dave Shillington up front a highlight.

My tip: Penrith 24-18

Canterbury Bulldogs v Brisbane Broncos

This time last year, the Bulldogs had fired their coach but still plating with plenty of pride. This pride has turned into something special as season 2012 looms as their best for some time. 10 wins on the trot, redefining the way rugby league is played, the best defence in the land and boasting, arguably, the most entertaining footballer we've seen for some time. Ben Barba will surely be remembered a long time after he is done with the greatest game of all.

So, before we just hand them the premiership, the Brisbane Broncos come to ANZ Stadium on Sunday afternoon to take their medicine and go home. The visitors' forwards still boast some big names and will matchup to the 'dogs forwards well, but not for 80 minutes. If he plays, the Hodges v Morris battle is juicy but the home side has the advantage of momentum and confidence. The Broncos lose their 4th straight.

My tip: Canterbury 24-14

Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks

A cracker. The Sharks signalled their return to form by eviscerating the Warriors in Auckland last week and whilst they won't meet that same flimsy defence in Newcastle on Monday night, they'll be brimming with confidence. Add to that the rumours that Nathan Gardner could return and you have a potent attack and impressive defence that won 4 of their first 6 games to start the season with a healthy roster.

So, they take this form up to Hunter Stadium as slight underdogs against a Knights team who were on their way back to form before running into the Bulldogs last week. A forgiveable loss, if there is such a thing, but the Sharks will bring just as much to the table and will prove too strong. Bennett ball has the home team playing patient football, waiting for their opposition to make mistakes but Paul Gallen and Todd Carney refuse to oblige.

My tip: Cronulla 18-12

Paully's Picks - CLOSE THE GAP Round 22

My favourite NRL initiative and the most inspiring event on the NRL calendar, Close the Gap Round not only highlights the issue around life expectancy rates amongst Indigenous Australians, but helps create cultural awareness. This weekend's purpose is best summed up by a quote from the One Community website;

Australian, Maroons and Melbourne captain Cameron Smith: “As a parent, it’s heart-breaking to know that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander babies have more than double the chance of dying before the age of one”.

Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra Dragons

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Gadigal People of the Eora nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

The Dragons must have a sniff of the semifinals now after winning a couple of big home games in recent weeks and will be especially confident in this match on Friday night at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters, by contrast, would only be sniffing the foul stench of failure. A tough season with their very young forward pack learning a harsh lesson about discipline.

In fact, the Chooks only victory in the last 4 months was against the Tigers in round 15 when their opposition was heavily distracted. Wretched times at Bondi but with youth, comes enthusiasm so they’ll give the Dragons everything they can handle for 80 minutes. Saints should have enough in them to get the biscuits here. They win with defense and desperation to keep their season alive.

My tip: St George Illawarra 20-18

The Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wurundjeri People of the Kulin Nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Surely. Surely this is the end of the rut. For those of us who saw the Panthers beat Cronulla last week – we noticed two things. 1. The Sharks may have been completely robbed by the referees and 2. The Panthers, no matter what the end result, looked inspired. They played with a passion and enthusiasm not seen from this club in some time. They even looked like they were enjoying their footy and playing hard for each other.

The Storm, meanwhile, have lost their last 5 matches and look anything other than ‘on the same page’. Having said all that, if not for the defensive instincts of one Brett Morris, they beat the Dragons in Wollongong last week and this conversation is over. Saturday afternoon footy returns to your TV with a 3.30pm kick off as Melbourne finally break the shackles.

My tip: Melbourne 24-12

Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Awabakal and Worimi Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A complete domination of the Canberra Raiders in our nation’s capital last weekend has the League community fearing the return of Wayne Bennett and his Newcastle Knights. They were methodical on Sunday and could have won by 50 if not for a few bombed opportunities in the opening 20 minutes. Ordinarily this would send shivers through any opposition.

The Bulldogs are not any opposition. They sit atop the ladder, have the best defense in the league and are winners of their past nine matches. Only a fool would tip against them, if you know what I mean. In a match dripping with excitement and great matchups, the highlights here will be Mick Ennis up against his former mentor in Danny Buderus and Willie Mason up against the colours that made him famous… or infamous.

My tip: Bulldogs 16-14

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Bindal and Wulgurukaba Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Part 3 of your Saturday Triple Header and for those of us who have made it back from the bottle shop to re-stock in time for kick-off. Congratulations. The opening exchanges will be fearsome – and not only between the forwards. Keep an eye on the Matai v Tate encounter and I defy anyone to find two more miserable footballers in 1^st grade today.

Speaking of miserable, the Eagles’ will come down from their flight of fancy to get a dose of reality as the Cowboys will prove too strong here. Manly were a mess in the opening 50 minutes of last week’s miracle in Perth and won’t be able to fix those problems quick enough to beat the Cowboys. Chances are they will be missing Watmough and captain Jason King. The Cowboys forwards too good.

My tip: North Queensland 30-16

New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sharks

Both last start losers in the dying moments. Literally the last second decided their respective fates last week and this match from Mt Smart Stadium on Sunday at noon will be a test for both teams to bounce back. The Sharks will definitely bounce higher if Carney and Gallen are playing but at this stage it looks as though only the latter will make the trip.

This leaves the Cronulla attack without enough punch to overcome an angry Warriors team staring directly at the prospect of an early end to their season if they can’t win this one. Shaun Johnson and Kevin Locke should find enough space late in this game to run away with it and keep the Warriors season alive. Cronulla drop their 4^th in a row and the future does not look bright.

My tip: Warriors 30-18

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Ngunnawal and Ngambri Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

It says a lot about the Broncos that from an entire season so far, we can only remember two bad performances and by bad, I mean slightly embarrassing. Round 17 against the Sharks was, perhaps, forgivable as they were missing their rep players, but the opening exchanges in that match made the baby Broncos look a lot worse than simply inexperienced.

Then, we have last Monday’s loss to the Eels. A more staggered and shambolic defensive line you will not see from a Broncos outfit before or after this loss. What better way to bounce back than to travel to Canberra to face a Raiders team hell bent on destroying their own chances this season? Not sure if that was a question or a statement but you get the point. The Broncos will be desperate.

My tip: Brisbane 19-18

Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Yugambeh People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A beauty. South Sydney bring their 5 match winning streak and league leading attack to Skilled Park on Sunday afternoon to face the Titans. Winners of 3 in a row and holding the much coveted 8^th position on the ladder –they won’t go quietly. In fact, credit must go to the Gold Coast after on field performances early in the season were almost as painful as their financial dramas.

They’ve recovered from both problems to be a player in this year’s Premiership and the bunnies will be a huge test to see how far they’ve come. Not far enough. The Rabbitohs travel outside of Sydney for the first time in 6 weeks but have a system strong enough to handle the challenge. The likes of Burgess and Taylor running into Myles and Douglas will make for great entertainment.

My tip: South Sydney 26-16

Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Dharawal People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Round 22 comes to a close with a Monday Night showdown at Campbelltown Stadium. A few weeks ago, this battle of the west would have been an easy tip but unfortunately for Tigers fans, things have changed. The Tigers have had an emotional season; A 5 match losing streak, followed by a 7 match winning streak and now the doldrums again. They must be exhausted.

The Eels, by contrast and by miracle, have found their mojo and whilst some wonder where this form has been, fans of Nathan Hindmarsh are thankful. What a travesty of justice it would have been for Hindy to go out as part of a shameful football team. Rather, the Nathan Hindmarsh Farewell Tour will roll out of Campbelltown triumphantly as the Tigers still can’t find a way out of their hole.

My tip: Parramatta 25-18



For live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/