Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Paully's Picks - Round 25

NZ Warriors v Brisbane

The Warriors will miss Michael Luck, just as we missed the footage of that horrible injury which nobody can seem to find. Spewing. Speaking of injuries, Darren Lockyer remains out of the Broncos line-up for this match and judging by their performance against the Knights last week, Brisbane might be in trouble. Without the direction of the NRL's best player, Ivan Henjak’s side seemed directionless after the first 20 minutes and never recovered.

This must be corrected against a fit and aggressive Warriors team with a halves combination improving every week. Brett Seymour and James Maloney should be too much for the visitors and the New Zealand defence will also be too strong. Seymour could be primed for a big match against one of his former clubs, and the Warriors play their last home game of the season and a farewell to Brent Tate gives them enough motivation to win.

My tip: Warriors 24-10
Result: Warriors 36-4



South Sydney v Parramatta

Two famous clubs meet for the 112th time on Friday night, and two famous clubs who are on the verge of missing the semi finals. With such high hopes entering the season, this late season disappointment for Bunnies and Eels fans will hurt, but they will still gear up for this clash at ANZ stadium. The return of Daniel Mortimer for the Eels and Dave Taylor, possibly, for South Sydney will help both clubs overcome their on field struggles of late.

Speaking of struggling, Souths in particular have not threatened opposition defences much since the injury to John Sutton. The same happens here and a rejuvenated Mortimer joins the Keating brothers and Feleti Mateo to officially end the Rabbitohs 2010 campaign. If Souths play as they did at CUA stadium last week, Jarryd Hayne could outscore them on his own. Eels too good.

My tip: Parramatta 30-12
Result: South Sydney 24-16



Cronulla v Gold Coast

The Sharks faithful are hoping for a storybook farewell from Toyota stadium for favourite son Luke Covell on Saturday night in the Shire, and will also be bidding goodbye to one of the NRL's finest in this era, Trent Barrett. We wish them well and Sharks coach Stuart Flanagan should have his troops revved up to the eyeballs for this one which should make for an interesting opening 10 minutes.

Unfortunately for the people of Cronulla, Broadbeach pips Wanda again. The Titans have won their last 5 matches and will enjoy the confidence that this brings as they withstand a barrage of highly motivated Sharks and come away with another win. Greg Bird returns to his old home ground and faces the club that tore up his contract; and speaking of prodigal sons... Matt Rogers and Preston Campbell should also receive a warm welcome. Should be fun.

My tip: Gold Coast 28-18
Result: Cronulla 30-16


Canberra v North Queensland

Just a side note.... With Jonathan Thurston, Darren Lockyer and John Sutton all out injured at this time of year, is that evidence that the season is too long? A question for another time perhaps. The questions in this game must be: How much will the Raiders win by? Will the Cowboys fall to pieces when they realise the temperature in Townsville (tops of 27) is a little different to that of our nation's capital (as low as 1)? Will the Raiders players be seeking some sort of revenge on Cowboys coach Neil Henry after he left Canberra on a sour note in 2008?

Answers: Plenty, Yes and Yes.
$1.10 odds for the home side suggest the same and we won’t be tipping anything different. The Raiders forwards do what they do best and bash their way to good field position where Terry Campese and an increasingly impressive Raiders backline does the rest. This match will test the pride of the Cowboys after a difficult season.

My tip: Canberra 40-10
Result: Canberra 48-4


Newcastle v St George Illawarra

Match of the Round for mine. The Knights continue to impress when playing at Energy Australia Stadium and reading about their 'Old Boys' history this week leads one to believe they will approach this match expecting to win. The Dragons were well beaten by the Raiders in Canberra last week and are on the road again this week so fatigue will play a part.

Up against a motivated Newcastle squad, this could be dangerous. What makes this match more interesting is the Dragons' defence. They are still the best defensive unit in the NRL and will need to call on this record to have any chance at victory. They will. We predict the Dragons forwards accept the challenge on Saturday night and pave the way for another grinding victory. Brett Morris v Akuila Uate a highlight, if they see the ball.

My tip: St George Illawarra 16-10
Result: St George Illawarra 26-18



Wests Tigers v Melbourne

The Melbourne Storm's season of stupidity is almost over, thank heavens. Credit must be given though, to Craig Bellamy and his players for respecting the game enough to play out the season with integrity, and aplomb. They are sure to do the same at Leichardt Oval on Sunday afternoon but it may not be enough to topple the Tigers at their famous home ground and when they are in good form.

The home side's victory at Parramatta last week suggested that good form is exactly what they have and this will continue. It will be close though as Melbourne's discipline in defence has not wavered, but Benji Marshall and his forwards will be too good. Robbie Farah, in particular, will be extra motivated against the best hooker in Australia and this matchup will be a highlight. Enjoy.

My tip: Tigers 24-18
Result: Tigers 26-14


Eastern Suburbs v Manly

The Roosters are now on a 3 game losing streak and under pressure to maintain their position in the top 8. Is it time to start making 'Brian Smith' comments about his history under pressure, or in big games? No it is not. Smith's team was unlucky last week against the Titans, receiving some harsh calls from the officials and Todd Carney having an off night. This probably won't happen again.

So, assuming the Roosters bounce back and perform anywhere near their best, a battle awaits them against an impressive but inconsistent Manly club. A battle they should win through standout performances from Carney and Braith Anasta. They lead the way in attack and the rest do enough in defence to smother the Eagles but only just in what could be an epic encounter - just one of many the Roosters have been involved in this year. Tune in to see 4 of the best young halves in the NRL.

My tip: Roosters 20-16
Result: Roosters 30-14



Canterbury v Penrith

What perfect timing by the dogs to announce the signing of Frank Pritchard. One wonders how the fans will react when he is announced at the ground on Monday night. One also wonders if Dogs fans will turn up to farewell Luke Patten in his last home game for the club. Here's hoping they do as there is none more deserved than The General. It seems likely that Brett Kimmorley could also be playing his last home game in what will be an emotional farewell to Rugby League.

Emotional for the fans... but we doubt whether to Bulldogs players can provide the type of performance warranted for this occasion. We predict the visiting Panthers stamp all over any fairytale ending for Kimmorley and Patten and run away with victory late in the second half. Jamal Idris moves back to the centres, again, to create a great matchup against Michael Jennings but Penrith charge towards the finals with a solid win.

My tip: Penrith 30-18
Result: Penrith 24-18

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