Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Paully's Picks - Round 22

Gold Coast v Parramatta

How hard are the Eels willing to work for their season? Last week suggested they were not up to the challenge of reproducing that amazing run into the 2009 semi finals, and this week will be a bigger test. The Titans have scored consecutive victories away at Kogarah Oval against the league leading Dragons and then returned from Mt Smart Stadium with a good win against the Warriors. The Eels will want to prove they are not going in the opposite direction.

Prove this they will. Let's ignore their performance against the sizzling Roosters and we predict an improved showing with Fui Fui Moi Moi leading the way and Jarryd Hayne following his forwards to victory. Plenty of pressure on the Eels halves here to produce points against a disciplined and in form Gold Coast team but they rise to the challenge. Parramatta's season on the line and they turn up.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Fui Fui Moi Moi
My tip: Parramatta 24-20
Result: Titans 34-12
Man of the Match: Luke Bailey
Snap Review:
Parra switched off in the final 20 minutes and this begs the question - what can motivate them if they cannot turn up with their season on the line?


North Queensland v Brisbane

As the Cowboys wander aimlessly into the setting sun that is season 2010 with Mad Monday celebrations already on their mind, the mighty Brisbane Broncos head into Townsville as pronounced favourites for Friday night's match at Dairy Farmers Stadium. Rightly so. The Cowboys have not produced a convincing 80 minute performance for some time and difficult to predict they suddenly do so here.

So I won't. Brisbane's hangover from last weekend's exhausting victory over the Dragons will only last for the opening 20 minutes but as always, Darren Lockyer will spark the comeback. North Queensland show plenty of energy early but fade away as the visitors continue their run towards the finals. Willie Tonga v Israel Folau a highlight but it will be the Broncos forwards who dominate at the back end of this Queensland derby.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Corey Parker
My tip: Brisbane 26-14
Result: Brisbane 34-26
Man of the Match: Matt Gillett
Snap Review:
Darren Lockyer getting injured in round 23 is not a good sign. Here's hoping for Broncos fans his rib is ok. Speaking of fans - my condolences to the lovely people of Townsville - its been a rough year for you and your haflback.

Manly v Melbourne

So, the Storm continue their travelling circus but this time they face the club with arguably more reason than any club to feel jilted by Melbourne's cheating of the Salary Cap. The Sea Eagles 2007 and 2009 seasons were both ended by losses to the Storm and Manly fans will not have forgotten this fact as they prepare to host their nemesis on Saturday night. We have a feeling they won't simply be waving cash at the Storm players in a show of protest, emotions could be boiling a little more than that.

Match of the Round for mine as this vicious rivalry continues in front of a hostile crowd. Some great matchups across the park with Jamie Lyon facing Greg Inglis a highlight, but the collisions in the middle of the field will have the folks from the insular peninsula on the edge of their seats. Manly bounce back from a poor showing from last Monday night and win a close one.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Steve Matai
My tip: Manly 19-18
Result: Manly 26-6
Man of the Match: Kieran Foran
Snap Review:
Manly truly are a powerhouse club when they turn it on. They've had some very big wins this year and this type of performance proves they are a premiership threat - as well as proving that Melbourne's existence is pointless.


Cronulla v NZ Warriors

Battle stations for the Warriors. After an impressive defensive showing during their 4 game winning streak, New Zealand have lost 2 in a row and allowed 38 and 28 points respectively in these matches. Did they peak too early? Has the spark disappeared? Will Brett Seymour struggle in his return to the shire? Have I asked too many questions? Possibly. This is our upset of the week and all questions will be answered on Saturday night at Toyota Stadium.

Cronulla have been close in the two games since replacing their coach and this time, we predict they finally get over the line for a rare victory. The Sharks forwards stand up to the imposing Warriors pack and build enough of a lead in the first half to hold on. It's a long trip from Auckland to the Shire and the visitors have hit a wall. Nathan Gardner delivers another standout performance and the Sharks salvage some pride and put a dent in the Warriors semi final aspirations.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Paul Gallen
My tip: Cronulla 24-22
Result: Warriors 37-10
Man of the Match: James Maloney
Snap Review:
Impressive performance by the visitors. They are patient and controlled and super fit. I hope they get a home semi final this year because the atmosphere will be ridiculous.



South Sydney v Wests

The imposing forward pack of the South Sydney Rabbitohs is no more. Injury to their most experienced front rower, their brightest star suspended and the broken collarbone of human wrecking ball Dave Taylor must be making John Lang feel a might unlucky. Last week, the Bulldogs smacked them all over the park and this week will be an even bigger test with the Tigers coming to Homebush. The Rabbitohs still have their spine intact but it will take a lot more than that to get them back on track.

The Tigers, on the other hand, are basically at full strength and sitting in 4th place, enough to make them $1.55 favourites during the week. I won't be going against the bookies and neither will the 2005 premiers. Benji Marshall has one of those games we know he is capable of and his forwards exact revenge for a 40 point thrashing at the hands of Souths in round 10 this year. Robbie Farah v Isaac Luke a highlight.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Gareth Ellis
My tip: Tigers 30-16
Result: South Sydney 34-30
Man of the Match: Chris Sandow
Snap Review:
Wow! Unbelievable finish from the bunnies but it must be said .... the Tigers looked to be in control of this match at so many times and in so many ways. Their inability to go for the jugular (thank you s. waugh) has cost them.


Newcastle v Canterbury

Does the phrase, "still a mathematical chance" mean anything to the Dogs and the Knights? It should. These two clubs have not been written off by their fans for season 2010 just yet. The Knights destroyed the heavily favoured Sea Eagles last Monday night to keep their season alive. The Bulldogs also handed out a bashing to South Sydney last week but both the Dogs’ and Knights’ victories smelled like 'too little - too late'.

Newcastle should use their home ground advantage to bury the Bulldogs and keep their semi final hopes alive, especially if Jarrod Mullen and Kurt Gidley can combine well in the halves again. They will. Mullen's kicking game was superb last week and if repeated, will starve the Dogs of field position and give his side every opportunity to use their weapon of mass destruction - Akuila Uate. Jamal Idris moves back to the centres to face Junior Sau in a battle of brute force.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Kurt Gidley
My tip: Newcastle 28-24
Result: Newcastle 30-6
Man of the Match: Kurt Gidley
Snap Review:
The Knights are closer than I thought they would be. They are putting together spirited performances and have won well, two weeks in a row. The race for positions 7 and 8 will be down to the wire.


Eastern Suburbs v St George Illawarra

It doesn't get tougher than this match at the SCG on Sunday afternoon. These two clubs have a wonderful rivalry formed from the Anzac Day matches and this year's traditional clash was brutal. The first half was basically a battle to see who would be last man standing. On that occasion it was the Dragons who stood taller as they outlasted the Roosters and pulled away in the second half. This time? A tough tip but either way it will be physical.

St George Illawarra are once again receiving criticism about their ability to perform at the back end of the season and will be out to prove a point. The Roosters? Well you can't argue with form and the chooks are on a roll; that is enough for me. The Dragons are averaging 10 points per match over the last month and this will not be enough against a Roosters team with so many attacking weapons. Footy fans will enjoy seeing Pearce and Carney up against the best defensive side in the NRL.

My Man of the Match Prediction: Anthony Minichiello
My tip: Roosters 18-16
Result: St George Illawarra
Man of the Match: Dean Young
Snap Review:
Screamer. Credit to both clubs for turning up and producing. If the Roosters keep this halves combination together, they are destined for a premiership within 5 years.


Canberra v Penrith

Monday Night Football in our nation’s capital and the people of Canberra will be rejoicing that Tony Abbot declined an offer from Julia Gillard to hold another debate on this same night. Raider’s fans are free from politics for one night and can enjoy the frosty conditions at Canberra Stadium, rather than listening to two non-league fans pretend to care about them. Or is Abbot a Manly fan? Here's hoping someone can answer that question as it will help me decide who is better equipped to run this great country of ours.

More to the point, Terry Campese and his band of brothers will enjoy the return of Josh Dugan and the Penrith Panthers will not enjoy the weather. Some great talent on display in this match as the two best young fullbacks in the NRL face off and the Raiders young front rowers take on the master himself, Petero Civoniceva. Great matchups. Raiders too good at home as they ruin Matt Elliott's home-coming and keep their 2010 season alive.

My Man of the Match Prediction: David Shillington
My tip: Canberra 26-22
Result: Canberra 30-26
Man of the Match: Terry Campese
Snap Review:
The Raiders making a second half comeback? This club never ceases to amaze. The Panthers must be in free fall. Having said that - better to get these losses out of the way before the semi's.

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