Thursday, May 13, 2010

Paully's Picks - Round 10

Canterbury v St George Illawarra


The Round 2 match between these rivals saw St George Illawarra dominate the Bulldogs with a superb defensive performance that stifled the Canterbury attack and held them to only one try. Watching the Bulldogs play over the past few weeks suggests they will need to be at their grinding, aggressive and stingy best to avoid a similar experience on Friday night. The Dragons are more than capable of suffocating a struggling Bulldogs’ attack once again.

The proverbial choke hold will be applied to Brett Kimmorley and Michael Ennis in particular who could not find a way through the Parramatta defense two weeks ago and will be targeted again as the Dogs' main attacking weapons. Based on this we can't go past the Dragons at ANZ as the inconsistency continues for the Belmore club this year. Once again the best matchup on the field involves Jamal Idris. This week he tests himself against arguably the best defender in his position in the NRL, Matt Cooper. Enjoy.

Man of the Match Prediction: Ben Creagh
Tip: St George Illawarra 19-12
Result: St George Illawarra 19-6
Man of the Match: Ben Hornby
Snap Review:
The Bulldogs must now be concerned about their attack. Not enough players out injured for that to be an excuse anymore. The Dragons continue to roll towards September.


Brisbane v Gold Coast

The return of Peter Wallace may help the Broncos... the confidence from their big win last week in Melbourne may help the Broncos..... the unbelievable form of Sam Thaiday may help the Broncos.... but on Friday night at Suncorp against the raging Gold Coast Titans, nothing will help them. John Cartwright's team is on an impressive 3 match winning streak including last minute victories on the road at Brookvale and Newcastle. Tough places to win games.

The Titans have it all; a fearless and inspiration leader in Scott Prince, some mongrel in his halves partner Greg Bird, a group of hard working forwards and some lightning fast backs. Brisbane have obviously been inconsistent this year and we predict this continues as Nathan Friend and Prince guide their troops to another impressive away win. A definite highlight of this match will be watching Sam Thaiday launch himself into the Titans defensive line as he has done against opponents all year.

Man of the Match Prediction: Anthony Laffranchi
Tip: Titans 32-18
Result: Broncos 28-6
Man of the Match: Ben Teo
Snap Review:
I couldn't have been more wrong. The Titans played with what looked like fear in their eyes as Brisbane pummelled them with superior aggression and a more fluid attack. They had more room to move and this is disappointing for the Titans who have played with plenty of discipline so far this year. Broncos getting troops back now.


NZ Warriors v North Queensland

Its always interesting for those of us in the over 30s age bracket to see this match scheduled in a "heritage round". Then again, time flies doesn't it?! The Warriors and Cowboys have been around since 1995 and at stages this season have mirrored some of their respective performances from those early years. Mostly due to a plague of injuries, both teams currently sit outside the top 8 and have plenty to prove. They also have plenty of potential.

The realising of that potential is something the Warriors seem more likely to do in this match. With some injured stars named to finally make their return, things are looking up for the Auckland based club who have lost 3 in a row. Specifically, Brett Seymour brings his experience back to join young James Maloney in the halves and combined with captain Simon Mannering's return, they will be difficult to beat. It will be close though as the visitors are fresh from a dominant Monday night victory over the Roosters and will take confidence from this.

Man of the Match Prediction: James Maloney
Tip: Warriors 26 -16
Result: Warriors 24-12
Man of the Match: Sam Rapira
Snap Review:
What an effort by man of the match Sam Rapira!! 17 hitups for 150 metres gained to sound himself out as the new forwards leader for the Warriors. They have missed this type of presence all year. Seymour and Maloney good in the halves. Make no mistake, this is a big win for NZ.


Canberra v Melbourne

Cold. Very Cold. Saturday night in our nation’s capital will bring temperatures as low as zero and could also bring out the best in the visiting Melbourne Storm. Along with Monday night's game at Brookvale Oval, this is the match of the round for mine. The Raiders, as always, will rely on their huge pack of forwards to come out swinging and set the tone immediately. They do again here and put the Storm on the back foot early. Will the Raiders be able to keep this up for 80 minutes?

This time, yes. The Melbourne Storm are not the same team without Cameron Smith. Even with the remaining list of talented footballers, the wily Smith directs them all from dummy half. Ryan Hinchcliffe will fill Smith's shoes admirably against his old club, but the Raiders fight hard to win on the back off good performances from Dave Shillington and Bronson Harrison. Keep an eye on Joel Thompson v Greg Inglis... Thompson has been impressive this year and will not take a backward step against Inglis. A big test for the young Raiders centre.

Man of the Match Prediction: David Shillington
Tip: Raiders 18-16
Result: Melbourne 17-6
Man of the Match: Greg Inglis
Snap Review:
Disappointing performance again from the Raiders but credit to the Storm's defence as they continue to play at the same standard we have come to expect. This in itself is amazing. Hilarious Raiders fans held out $20 and $50 notes for the Storm players, who admittedly don't deserve this kind of treatment but as league fans, we are angry and logic sometimes takes a back seat.



Eastern Suburbs v Newcastle

The Roosters seemed horribly flat on Monday night in their loss to the Cowboys. Perhaps it was exhaustion from their round 8 win against the Tigers, or perhaps they could not get motivated playing in front of 300 people at the SFS last Monday. Either way, they can't possibly play that way again this week... can they? If you can answer that question you are doing better than I am, this is a tough one. The Knights probably deserve one more chance to prove they can climb out of the mire that is their season so far.

So give them that chance. They have good options to cover for the injured Jarrod Mullen and the Roosters attack has not looked good without Mitchell Pearce the last two weeks. Kurt Gidley has been inspirational for the Knights and his teammates finally get inspired by this and defend like they mean it. Their ability to score points is not in question, their defensive attitude certainly is. Some big forwards bouncing off each other in this match, Knights finish stronger.

Man of the Match Prediction: Kurt Gidley
Tip: Knights 30-18
Result: Knights 34-18
Man of the Match: Akuila Uate
Snap Review:
The Roosters are in trouble without Mitchell Pearce and the Knights had enough points in them to win this game. Uate's footwork is some of the best I've ever seen and the Knights continue to bank on the attacking prowess of players like him to get them home. This is dangerous. They need to start defending with purpose.

Wests v South Sydney

The Tigers have not won a game of football since their victory over the Cowboys in Townsville more than a month ago. Not good times for a team lauded as premierships threats this year by many. Injury to blame? Of course. So with recognised halfback Robert Lui returning against the Bunnies this week, there will be plenty jumping back on the Tigers bandwagon, including the bookies.

So, who am I to argue with seasoned gamblers? It’s also difficult to argue with South Sydney's poor Sunday afternoon form this year. They do have a ready-made wrecking ball in Dave Taylor who we predict will turn up again for the ‘visitors’, but the Tigers defense will hold firm here and use a late spurt from Benji Marshall to finish on top of an inconsistent Rabbitohs team. A true 'heritage round' match so let's hope for some 'heritage' hitting.

Man of the Match Prediction: Benji Marshall
Tip: Wests 22-20
Result: Souths 50-10
Man of the Match: John Sutton
Snap Review:
What a day for the Red and Greens? Souths fans will be convinced they can now win the premiership whilst Tigers fans will start thinking about a replacement coach. Thats what happens after a game like this but order will be restored in the coming weeks, as it always is. Asotasi starting to look injury proned and questions will be asked once again about whether he is paid more money than he is worth.



Cronulla v Penrith

Since the signing of Tim Smith, the Sharks have looked less like a reserve grade team and more like a team with the potential to drag themselves out of a horrible last 12 months. They obviously haven’t reached this potential yet and are still struggling to score points, but they will fight hard again in this match on Sunday afternoon. This might test the visiting Panthers but eventually class will prevail.

That class is represented by none other than Michael Jennings. He will more than likely be up against Taulima Tautai and the Panthers will want to take full advantage of this. If wise enough, Luke Walsh and Kevin Kingston will be looking to give their star centre plenty of opportunities to apply his craft. If they do, he will be unstoppable. They will. He is. Good platform to be laid by the Penrith's impressive pack of forwards and 'Jenko' does the rest. Do I sound like a Jennings fan?

Man of the Match Prediction: Petero Civoniceva
Tip: Penrith 28-10
Result: Penrith 34-14
Man of the Match: Lachlan Coote
Snap Review:
The Cronulla Sharks continue to provide the humour in this tragic story that we call 'season 2010'. This humour is represented by none other than Ricky Stuart. Media attending post match press conferences must be laying bets on who can pi$$ him off the most, and the quickest. Penrith, on the other hand, must be celebrating that exclusion of Michael Jennings from the state team. They are rolling towards a top 4 finish.

Manly v Parramatta

Monday Night at Brookvale Oval should bring quite an atmosphere to the insular peninsula. The Eels are bringing a full barrel of momentum into this match and face a home side whose only fault from the last 7 weeks was a 10 minute lapse against the Titans. This is the match of the round. Two very strong forward packs and two sets of big, strong outside backs will be slamming into each other at high velocity for 80 wonderful minutes.

Who comes away from this with the 2 points? Tough to go past the form of Manly’s Trent Hodkinson and his halves partner, Kieran Foran. With exceptional kicking games and wisdom beyond their years, these two will control the tempo of the match and keep Parramatta buried in their own half. With the Eels averaging 17 offloads per match, they are always a chance to score points when you least expect it, but they will have to. This gives Manly enough of an edge. Tahu v Lyon a highlight.

Man of the Match Prediction: Josh Perry
Tip: Manly 26-16
Result: Parramatta 19-12
Man of the Match: Jarryd Hayne

See our "Minute by Minute Monday Night" blog - delivered in 'retro' form on Tuesday. For live updates go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/

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