Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Paully's Picks - Round 18

NZ Warriors v Gold Coast

The Gold Coast Titans are about to join a long list of NRL clubs with a trophy in their cabinet that they’d rather not have. But don’t feel bad Titans fans. We’ve all been there. You start the season with high hopes after making the semi finals the year before and winning a big home semi... but then it all comes crashing down. A wooden spoon beckons.

Before John Cartwright’s team begin planning their Mad Monday celebrations, they first get to travel across the Tasman to face New Zealand at Mt Smart Stadium on Friday night. Admittedly the Warriors have lost more than they’ve won this year; but at home on a cold and wet night in Auckland, they produce using the speed and skill of Shaun Johnson and Kevin Locke.
My tip: NZ Warriors 20-12


Parramatta v Wests Tigers

The more and more times you watch the 2011 Eels play, the more you like their chances to turn it around. Unfortunately for Parramatta, the more and more they play, the bigger and deeper the hole they dig for themselves. Having lost their past 3 and not tasting victory since a round 11 win over the Sharks, the Eels can only hope for a bit of luck to fall their way against the Tigers on Friday night at Parramatta Stadium.

At this stage, it looks like being the opposite with Chris Lawrence and Todd Payten named to return for the visitors. What’s more unlucky for the Eels is that Tigers coach Tim Sheens looks like he will spring the return of Benji Marshall on them. Either way, the Tigers have lost the ability to entertain and the Eels average just over 15 points per game in attack. How the mighty have fallen. Tigers at the death with Robbie Farah leading the way.
My tip: Wests Tigers 20-18


Cronulla v Canberra
Much has been made of the last meeting between these two clubs. Twas’ round 1 of the season and the Raiders looked like world beaters at home in a drubbing. Interestingly, after this game the Sharks went on to beat St George Illawarra in round 2 and the Raiders went on to lose their next 8 games. Both clubs have been a work in progress this season and have come full circle for this match on Saturday at Toyota Stadium.

The Cronulla forward pack have become a sight to behold whilst the Raiders have found stability in the halves with Sam Williams and Josh McCrone combining well to win 4 of their last 6. This will be a beauty and far too good a match to be stuck in the 5.30pm timeslot. Hard to go past the Sharks at home in a contest highlighted by a vicious forwards battle and a return to the shire of Blake Ferguson. Could be fun.
My tip: Cronulla 24-12


Canterbury Bankstown v Melbourne
What to make of the Bulldogs this year? Anyone’s guess what has gone wrong at Belmore but depending on which newspaper you read.... the coach has one more chance, the board is split and the fans are calling for heads to roll. The truth is probably nowhere near any of this. They have the same record as the Tigers, Warriors and Panthers but will always get more press and more pressure. They have not handled it well recently.
If there was ever a week to turn around your fortunes in the NRL, this is not it for the ‘Dogs. The Melbourne Storm sit top of the table and have won their last five matches without allowing more than 8 points in defence. Remarkable. How fitting that this match is played at the historic Adelaide Oval because if Canterbury cannot get their house in order before 7pm on Saturday night – it could be a cricket score.
My tip: Melbourne 22-10.


Eastern Suburbs v Penrith
Watching the Roosters capitulate to the visiting Raiders last Monday night was truly a sad sight. Last year’s grand finalists still boast some of the games big names and one its most experienced coaches but as they succumbed to their 11TH loss of the season, losing the second half 20-0, you knew all hope had been lost. To Todd Carney especially, it seems like rugby league has become a chore and this is the saddest sight of all.
But fear not, Roosters fans; here is a chance to turn out in your hundreds to cheer on the tri-colours against the Panthers on Sunday afternoon. By massive contrast, Penrith are heading up the ladder as they play with no pressure and no expectations. The season seems like more of a farewell tour for this group and on the field, they are having fun. They beat the stuffing out of the Dogs and the Cowboys at home in the last fortnight and will do the same on the road against the Roosters.
My tip: Penrith 30-16


Manly v South Sydney
One of the great rivalries in Rugby League.  While many things change, some things stay the same as Manly host South Sydney at Brookvale Oval on Sunday afternoon. This is the 127th meeting between the clubs and just like the 126 before it; there will be blood here again. Judging by betting prices through the week, it seems that most of the wounds will be inflicted by Manly’s uncompromising and talented forward pack.
Led by elder statesmen Jason King, this pack will beat the stuffing out of the Rabbitohs ‘b’ team up front and make all the space in the world for the dynamic duo in Foran and Cherry-Evans. Whilst Souths might be able to bounce back from last week’s loss and deliver a much improved performance, it won’t be enough as they simply do not have the firepower. Manly by plenty.
My tip: Manly 34-16


Newcastle v North Queensland
To finish off round 18 and the official ending of the rep season, Jonathan Thurston proves that a) luck with injury plays a part in every club’s success and b) the salary cap does not allow for clubs to have more than one superstar. Hence, the Cowboys are immediately huge underdogs in this match after JT’s season ending injury on Wednesday night. This also ensures the Knights have the advantage and form suggests the same.
Newcastle have won their past 3 matches and adopted the ‘grind’ with enthusiasm as their defence over the past month has been a highlight. North Queensland had the best attack in the NRL before their entire season was turned on its head but will adopt a similar approach to their football with defence, rather than attack, being a new focal point. The return of Jarrod Mullen and the rise of Joel Edwards should be enough for the Knights to keep the run going.
My tip: Newcastle 18-14

For live updates throughout the weekend go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/index.php

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