Thursday, June 16, 2011

Paully's Picks - Round 15

Brisbane v St George Illawarra

As the representative scheduling shambles continues, this match between two of the league’s heavyweights will be overshadowed by the debate itself. Did the Dragons and the Broncos agree to this? Were they involved in the decision? Will it be the ‘Baby Broncos’ v the ‘Diaper Dragons’ on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium? This abomination of a fixture could still be a ripper, considering the toughness of those involved.

If it is Darren Lockyer v Jamie Soward for the second time this week, tune in to see a beauty. Two artists with the boot will battle again to gain any advantage and then watch them pounce on a tired defence at the perfect time. The Dragons defence seems well equipped to handle the Broncos and two teams who love to grind out a win will make for a ferocious forward battle. Saints in a close one.

My tip: St George Illawarra 21-14



South Sydney v Gold Coast

The Titans are coming of their biggest win of the season. Admittedly against inferior opposition but confidence can do wonders for them against a team like South Sydney who have been known to fade in and out of games. If the visitors get off to a good start on Friday night at ANZ stadium, they could do some damage.

They won’t. The Bunnies will be coming off 12 days rest before this game which should give them the upper hand during opening exchanges. “Should”, being the operative word because this is South Sydney and we just never know. They have not won in a month but in a match between two teams who look more likely to start planning a Mad Monday pub crawl than execute a game plan, Souths have the edge with their defence.

My tip: South Sydney 24-20



Newcastle v Penrith

It seems a burgeoning tradition that every new coach appointed to the top job at Newcastle wants to clean out the current roster and make his own mark in the Hunter. Why is this? Promising number 6 Beau Henry gone mid season, Cory Paterson the same, seemingly their entire forward pack on notice and subsequently a 5 and 7 win loss record which comes as no surprise considering this type of upheaval.

The Panthers also have a 5 and 7 record and a new coach starting next year but this announcement seemed to bring life to a miserable season, rather than literally tear apart the playing roster. They have won 3 out of their last 4 and look to be building towards a finals run. They will likely be without captain Petero Civoniceva but still look good for an upset. Lachlan Coote the standout as the visitors exact revenge for that infamous round 1 thrashing.

My tip: Penrith 20-12



North Queensland v NZ Warriors

The Warriors are a hard working bunch with the record to show for it. They sit 6th on the ladder and have the advantage of not losing any players to origin. They are, however, losing a few to injury and have dropped their past two matches by narrow margins. Ivan Cleary has now made some changes for their match in Townsville on Saturday Night against the Cowboys.

Two noted speedsters in Kris Inu and Glen Fisiiahi make up the right side attack for the Warriors but unfortunately for them, they are not noted defenders. If Jonathan Thurston is not completely exhausted from Wednesday night, he will take advantage of this. The Cowboys forwards get a roll on and give him all the space he needs. Tariq Sims is fast becoming a player that fans tune in to see and the Warriors will be seeing plenty of him.

My tip: North Queensland 30-14



Canterbury Bankstown v Cronulla

After their last game, the Bulldogs were being attacked from all sides. On the field, they were impotent. Off the field, the board and the coach did not see eye to eye. Seems like the standard public and media reaction when a club as famous as the ‘Berries’ play like they did against Manly on that fateful Saturday night.

Here we are two weeks later and the ‘Dogs have a shot at redemption. They host the Cronulla Sharks on Sunday afternoon, who bring with them a full strength and brutal forward pack. Ben Roberts makes his starting debut for season 2011 after playing only 7 minutes of 1st grade all year and is playing outside Kris Keating. This combination won’t bring the home side a lot of points, but should be enough to win if they get Ben Barba involved at every opportunity.

My tip: Canterbury Bankstown 18-14



Wests v Melbourne

Match of the Round for mine. Even with the Tigers missing two of their best in Chris Lawrence and Lote Tuqiri, they still have Benji Marshall. After watching him last week in Auckland it just might be enough to beat the team with the best for and against record in the NRL and holders of a 10 and 3 record. The Melbourne Storm have won 5 from their last 6 and more importantly have not allowed more than 8 points in a month.

This is where we have the greatest battle. Attack v Defence. Flair v Grind. The unpredictability of the Tigers v the Rugby League robots from Melbourne. With the visitors showing $2.15 for the win, bookies must be convinced of the magical powers of Leichardt Oval and with the Storm owning a 2 and 7 record at the famous ground, it’s hard to argue. So I won’t. The Tigers thrive in the daytime led by Gareth Ellis and Robbie Farah.

My tip: Wests 20-16



Manly v Parramatta

Monday Night Football at Brookvale Oval has the Parramatta Eels venturing where they dare not by choice. Do you think Tim Mannah ever ventured to the Northern Beaches from Guildford in his spare time? Reckon Jarryd Hayne ever made the trek from his humble roots in Campbelltown to hang out with the yuppies at Harbord? No. Manly fans don’t like you and will not welcome you.

Hence, we have one of the greatest rivalries in the NRL. The Sea Eagles take on the Eels for the 125th time in their history with the visitors at long odds to win. Manly represent the fulfilled potential of what the Eels are trying to build; Tough forwards who hit the advantage line hard and get quick play the balls, composed halves with smart kicking games and a superstar at the back. Parra not quite there yet and Manly make it 6 in a row.

My tip: Manly 20-18

For live updates throughout the weekend - go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

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