Thursday, May 19, 2011

Paully's Picks - Round 10

Canterbury Bankstown v St George Illawarra


A number of the Dragons players line up for their 4th match in 12 days here, a big ask for some but standard procedure in the NRL these days as the representative season begins. What will it mean for the reigning premiers? Simply another test that they will pass and another reason why they sit atop the ladder.

This blockbuster on Friday night at ANZ Stadium will live up to its billing though. The Bulldogs ‘spine’ of Barba, Keating, Hodkinson and Ennis are well rested and will test the reigning premiers’ resolute defence for 80 minutes. However, even with their attacking weapons ready to fire, the home side will hit a brick wall and fall just short as they did in round 5. Saints grind it out.

My tip: St George Illawarra 19-12



Penrith v Brisbane

A tale of two cities as the ever-changing Panthers of Penrith host the Brisbane Broncos at Centrebet Stadium in Friday Night Football. It truly is the worst of times for the boys from the foot of the mountains and very much the best of times for Darren Lockyer and his men. The Broncos play with discipline, control and toughness whilst the Panthers give away penalties in their hundreds and lack direction.

This is where Brisbane will dominate. Peter Wallace and Lockyer will combine to march their team downfield and then unleash the speed and strength of an amazing set of outside backs that will have the Panthers reeling. By contrast, the struggling duo of Luke Walsh and Travis Burns will continue to feel around in the dark, trying to find the light switch of their attack.

My tip: Brisbane 28-12





Melbourne v Canberra

Do we have a fan revolt on our hands? Are the Raiders fans actually preparing to ‘strike’ against their football team as has been reported this week? If so, the Canberra faithful need to get into the room of mirrors and ask themselves the hard questions, rather than chase your halfback’s car down the street like an English soccer hooligan. Having said that, great to see your passion for the ‘greatest game of all’ still lives.

If the boys from our nation’s capital are to turn things around, it must start as it always should, with defence. The Raiders forward’s will be motivated to save their season and their reputations. This should have them launching themselves fearlessly at the Melbourne forwards and give it everything they have. If they do.... I’m still giving the visitors 20+ start. Any takers? You know you are. Cam Smith the standout as Melbourne puts on a clinic.

My tip: Melbourne 30-6



North Queensland v Parramatta

Before anything else, it would be negligent not to mention Nathan Hindmarsh’s performance in commentary during the City v Country fixture in Albury last Friday night. As you would expect from this workhorse second rower, Hindmarsh was insightful, hardworking and combined well with his halfback/co-commentators to make the experience worthwhile.

Why is this relevant? One can’t help but admire him and feel it necessary to compliment him by any means available. He simply won’t get anything out of running off Mortimer and Robson for the Eels this Saturday night in Townsville and won’t get the credit he deserves from NSW selectors. What a waste of one of our finest. To this end, Hindmarsh will again work his tail off for 80 minutes but all to no avail as JT and the Cowboys win again at home.

My tip: North Queensland 24-10



South Sydney v Wests

The Tim Sheens v John Lang record is interesting. The Wests v Souths record is interesting. Souths’ injury toll is also interesting in a horribly unlucky way.... but the most interesting thing about this match is the duel between Benji Marshall and John Sutton. Interesting because it is a complete mis-match, rather than a duel. With the much maligned Sutton a constant target of criticism from the Rugby League community, I thought I’d jump on that train and have a crack myself.

The reasons for this mismatch will be on show this Saturday night at ANZ Stadium. Benji Marshall has improved as a footballer and leader in every one of his 8 years in 1st grade. Sutton has not. Benji will guide his forwards and backs around the field for 80 minutes and turn up when his team needs him most. Sutton will not. Benji will play this game with as much intensity as he delivers every week for his club. Sutton will not.

My tip: Wests 26-18



Newcastle v NZ Warriors

Ivan Cleary looks to have his side heading in the right direction after 10 rounds and more importantly did not succumb to the pressures that must have been mounting after the club’s slow start to 2011. The Warriors lost their opening 3 matches and have since won 5 out of six including impressive wins over the Storm and Titans, both away. They now travel to Newcastle on Sunday afternoon in what will be a cracker.

At home, the Knights are difficult to tip against but this smells like an upset of the week and even though some of the Warriors haven’t been home in a couple of weeks, they turn up again here. James Maloney was a standout against the Titans last week and will be again here against 19 year old Knights five eighth, Tyrone Roberts. Manu ‘the beast’ Vatuvei against Akuila ‘the killer’ Uate sounds like an episode of X-Men, in reality it is the best match up on the park. Enjoy.

My tip: New Zealand 30-22



Cronulla v Eastern Suburbs

The Roosters have simply not been able to find any consistency on the field this year. Off the field, however, they seem pretty consistent and this could be a reason for their struggles so far in 2011. It is interesting to note, however, that Brian Smith has changed his squad nearly every week and whether this is due to injury or not, it seems to be affecting them more than anything that happens after midnight around Coogee.

A new wing and centre combination in Kane Linnett and Steve Naughton, another change in the makeup of his starting front row and the return of Todd Carney could mess with the Roosters’ cohesion but against the Sharks on Sunday afternoon at Toyota Stadium, it will not matter. If the visitors can withstand the onslaught from a monster Cronulla forward pack, they can completely outclass the Cronulla backline. They do.

My tip: Roosters 20-16



Gold Coast v Manly

To close out round 10 and officially begin the origin ‘silly season’, the Manly Sea Eagles travel up to Skilled Park to face Titans. John Cartwright’s men got the better of Manly twice last year but are big outsiders to do the same again here. The bookies must like Manly and it’s not hard to see why; Brett Stewart back in form and scoring tries means the Eagles can beat anyone.

A fit Stewart also means less pressure on the young halfback, Daly Cherry Evans. The Eagles attack simply has more options for their number 7 and an experienced voice at the back when in defence. The Titans got beaten at home by 20 last week but will lift for this match with the winner decided at the death. Perhaps even some golden point footy on the cards...

My Tip: Manly 21-20

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