Paully's Picks - Round 8

Brisbane v Canterbury Bankstown

To kick off the last round before representative scheduling destroys big games like this one, the Brisbane Broncos host the Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. Match of the Round for mine as youngsters Trent Hodkinson and Kris Keating face the NRLs best defence and set out to prove that youth can overcome experience. This is just one of many great matchups across the park.

Justin Hodges is showing no signs of a hangover from ankle surgery and will be at his devastating best against Josh Morris in a possible origin preview. The biggest battle, however, will be the speed and discipline of the Broncos defensive line against the creativity of the Bulldogs' attack.  With Ben Barba in the form that he is in, the visitors will have just enough points in them to stop the Bronco juggernaut and steal the two points in a beauty.

My tip: Canterbury 22-18


South Sydney v Cronulla

The Rabbitohs performance last week suggests they don't quite believe in themselves, their game plan, their defensive structure or each other. Whilst Chris Sandow begins to shed some of the negative reputation that has followed him in recent times, his halves partner John Sutton seems to be moving in the opposite direction. The Bunnies have a rising injury toll up front to go with their playmaker issues. Tough times.

Even tougher times in the Shire though with the Sharks' two main strike weapons out with injury so this will be a true test of their depth. Will Tim Smith pass this test? No. Will John Sutton break out of his season long funk? No. Will Paul Gallen and Michael Crocker break the NRL record for niggling in one match? Hard to keep score. Speaking of scoring, there won’t be much of it in this match but Souths crawl away with it against a depleted Cronulla side.

My tip: South Sydney 16-10


Gold Coast v Eastern Suburbs

Last year's runners up are now sitting on five losses from their first seven matches, a handful of off-field incidents and some genuine questions being raised about their attack. The Roosters have lost their last 3 and have not scored over 12 in these losses. Not quite a slump, as it were, but a concern for Brian Smith nonetheless. How do they respond?

One way is to go the knuckle. The boys from Bondi may as well embrace the drinking culture that seems firmly entrenched in the club and get involved in and old fashioned bar room brawl against the Titans at Skilled Park on Saturday Night. But alas, the ramblings of a league fan stuck in the 80's may not have any effect on these two clubs so it will come down to how the Roosters can back up after such a big match on Anzac Day. I'm tipping they back up well and their attack shifts into a higher gear.

My tip: Roosters 24-20


Melbourne v Newcastle

You're game if you even think of tipping against the Storm after their home loss last weekend but this is a Newcastle team who gave the reigning premiers all they could handle a few weeks ago and also had the gumption to come back from 12-0 down in Canberra last week. There is a good spirit in the Knights team this year and one reason has been the inspired play of Jarrod Mullen.

You can bet that the Storm know this and will be directing traffic at the young halfback all night long at AAMI Park on Saturday. If Mullen can overcome this barrage of Blair, Bromwich and Brian Norrie, the visitors will keep it close enough to be a chance at the end. He won't. Mullen will not find the grunt and protection he needs from a willing but outgunned Knights forward pack and this is where Melbourne win the match - right up the middle with Cam Smith leading the way.

My tip: Melbourne 26-16


North Queensland v Manly

This will be a ripper. You could not find a more even record between two teams - 4 wins apiece and exactly the same amount of points scored by both sides in 8 matches between the Cowboys and the Eagles at Dairy Farmers Stadium. Just take a minute to settle down after that fascinating statistic and while you’re at it, take some time to schedule yourself in front of a TV on Saturday night for a physical battle between two very capable forward packs.

Cowboys prop Matt Scott will be launching himself at everything that moves in a Manly jumper, as will the Sims brothers and former Eagle Glen Hall. The reply will come swiftly from Jason King and his crew and just as this battle heads towards a stalemate, it will be Jonathan Thurston who shines above the violence and continues his stellar season to give the Cowboys their 4th win in a row. Juicy.

My tip: North Queensland 23-22


NZ Warriors v Penrith

For those of you who love a Sunday afternoon triple header starting with the midday entree from Mt Smart Stadium, here is a beauty. The Warriors host the struggling Panthers in a match that will truly test the visitor’s mettle. Penrith are one step away from being a club in crisis - players arguing with management, their coach told he is not welcome back in 2012 and some embarrassing losses at home. Tough times.

The remedy for these tough times will not be found in wet and windy Auckland this weekend. What the Panthers will find is a New Zealand club fresh off their biggest win of the year and pulsating with confidence. If the home side get off to a good start it could be a long day for Matt Elliott and his team. Our prediction is that New Zealand get off to a good start and it will be a long day for Matt Elliott and his team.

My tip: Warriors 30-14


Canberra v Wests Tigers

These two teams last met in round 3 at Campbelltown in what was essentially a drubbing by the Tigers. A lot has changed since then and whilst the Raiders are still stuck on 1 win, as they were 5 weeks ago, it’s Benji and his boys who are now doing it a little tougher. A rising injury toll and a form line that suggests not much has changed in the realm of consistency for Wests means they head to our nation's capital as slight outsiders.

Playing against the bottom of the table Raiders might be exactly what Tim Sheens and his team need to turn things around. Whilst the home side have Dugan, Orford and Tongue back from injury, the desperate Tigers ride improved performances from their forwards and Benji does the rest. Robert Lui also a standout as Canberra fall to their 7th loss on the trot and the Tigers' attack finds all the space it needs.

My tip: Wests 30-22


St George Illawarra v Parramatta

A whole bunch of second generation footballers on show in part three of your triple header on Sunday afternoon as Kogarah Oval gets its first taste of Rugby League for season 2011. Slippery Morris, Craig Young, Rocket Reddy and the Mortimer family have all contributed DNA to this showcase of tradition and a rivalry that will not be forgotten by any of them. Long may it continue.

This chapter of history, however, will be something that Eels fans will quickly erase from their memories. The Dragons are on a roll, again, and their defence is the catalyst, again, for success. More so in this match as Parramatta continue to struggle for points consistently and as usual Ben Hornby and Jamie Soward will bide their time and wait for the perfect opportunity to strike. Keep an eye on another 2nd generation star in M. Gasnier to do the damage.

My tip: St George Illawarra 27-4

For live updates throughout the weekend go to http://leagueunlimited.com/