Paully's Picks - Finals Week 1

Gold Coast v NZ Warriors

The amount of painkilling injections that league players will take to ensure they get on to the field in the finals is remarkable. Scott Prince basically has a separated shoulder and Luke Bailey has a broken thumb. You'd be shocked if they didn’t play in this match on Friday night as the finals series opens with a beauty. No better example can be found of how important the finals are and to what lengths our NRL stars will go chasing the ultimate prize.

The Titans face the upstart Warriors who present a real danger to them. The visitors do not have many weaknesses and the home side will have to be at their gritty, determined best to outlast the boys from Auckland. They will. The Gold Coast were quite easily dispatched from last years finals and their defence was the major issue; not this time. They are a year older and wiser and the addition of Greg Bird will provide the tenacity and experience they need to get over the Warriors - but only just.

Tip: Gold Coast 21-20
Result: Gold Coast 28-16


Wests v Eastern Suburbs

Chris Lawrence in a huge loss for the Tigers; make no mistake. They might be able to get by without him in the regular season, but when it comes to finals time, players like Lawrence can make a big difference. The Tigers have shown great depth this year and will call on it again through Mitch Brown and whilst Brown is being tested out wide, the Tigers forwards will be in a battle of their own against a Roosters pack with one goal and one goal only, make some room for Pearce and Carney.

Given enough time to pick their spots, the celebrated Roosters halves can cause major damage to the Tigers but this is where experience tells. The likes of Farah and Galloway and Payten and Fulton will stand up and be counted. We predict the Wests forwards make a name for themselves in this match and allow Benji Marshall a chance to produce the kind of magic he is capable of. A brutal battle in the middle and I can't wait. Tigers get home in a violent encounter.

Tip: Wests 19-18
Result: Roosters 19-15

Penrith v Canberra

Another bottler. Semi Final time is truly the most exciting time in a Rugby League season. The upstart Raiders have come a long way this year and along with the Warriors, are the biggest surprise of 2010. The boys from our nation’s capital take their show to the foot of the mountains this Saturday night to face a Penrith team whose form at CUA stadium has been scorching. The Panthers will miss Petero Civoniceva but will welcome the return of Luke Walsh and Luke Lewis.

This should be enough to put an end to the dreams of a young Canberra team lacking the experience required to pull off an upset in this match. The Panthers pull away to a healthy lead early and hold off the fast finishing Raiders. Penrith halfback Walsh finds another way to get his team across the try line and proves that they can score points without kicking. Penrith get a week off and the visitors head home for Mad Monday to ponder a very bright future.

Tip: Penrith 30-20
Result: Canberra 24-22

St George Illawarra v Manly

As Manly captain Jamie Lyon mentioned during the week, this match is a big opportunity for the Sea Eagles to pull off one of the great victories in the clubs history. Ravaged by injury and suspension, up against the minor premiers, facing arguably the best defensive unit in recent memory, and away from home, Manly have it all to do and are understandably 15 point outsiders. It will take a major collapse from the Dragons for the visitors to get over the line here.

Not this week. Saints turn up and defend as they have all year and their attack will benefit from this and a glut of possession. The Eagles fight bravely but to no avail as a fresh Dragons outfit put them to the sword. Interesting to see any evidence of nerves in the home side and how they approach this match after receiving so much criticism over the past year about their September form. We predict they respond by crushing the Eagles to win the clubs first finals match since 2006.

Tip: St George Illawarra 29-10
Result: St George Illawarra 28-0

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