Thursday, July 1, 2010

Paully's Picks Round 17

Brisbane v Wests Tigers

On paper, this is the best forward pack the Tigers can field. With Galloway a few games back from injury and Todd Payten also fresh, it's a menacing sight for opposing sides and one that could well destroy the young Broncos on Friday night. With Brisbane being without their origin players, it's a good chance for the visitors to rebound from last week's big loss at Kogarah.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they still don't have a halfback. Defence improved? check... consistency? check... Benji Marshall free of injury? check. The only thing they don't have going into this match is a link between good forwards and classy backs. Without either Tim Moltzen or Robert Lui it has been a struggle so we like the Broncos in an upset. Their defence stands up and wins this match.

Man of the Match Prediction: Corey Parker
Tip: Brisbane 20-16
Result: Wests Tigers 16-14
Man of the Match: Ben Teo
Snap Review:
The baby broncos were unlucky. They fought hard and were not to know that the Tigers have turned into a hard arse team that wins the close ones and wins the tough games. They will be lethal if Lui comes back for the semis.

Cronulla v Canterbury

Even with the Bulldogs improved performance from last week, one could not help but notice that this good form only lasted 20 minutes against the Raiders, who are not renowned for making late comebacks. The Dogs, it must be said, looked a little shaky in the latter stages of their victory but it seems the bookies are back on the Belmore bandwagon.

They are un-backable favourites against a Cronulla side missing some rep players but it will not be easy. This match could be slightly less than a good advertisement for rugby league on the central coast. The Sharks defence and point scoring ability continue to improve, whilst the Bulldogs are yet to prove they have officially climbed out of that very deep hole. They scrape home here through the brilliance of Ben Barba.

Man of the Match Prediction: Ben Barba
Tip: Canterbury 20-14
Result: Canterbury 24-12
Man of the Match: Ben Barba
Snap Review:
Dogs had all the ball in the first 30 and put the Sharks to sleep early. It must be said that Kimmorley, Ryan and Luke Patten look like they are ready to leave. Big changes predicted in the off season. The Sharks fought hard in the second half but all that did was make this match ugly.

Canberra v Eastern Suburbs

The resurgent Roosters strolled into Christchurch last week facing wet, windy and freezing conditions. They looked the opposition square in the eye and refused to buckle. Somehow, they did. If the boys from Bondi can overcome this recent heartbreaking loss, they seem to be mentally strong enough to win in our nation's capital but it is difficult to tip a young side on the road two weeks in a row.

So I won’t. With team leader Mitchell Pearce on origin duty, the Raiders are deserved favourites and will be too strong for a tired Roosters side. The return of Josh Dugan is celebrated by Terry Campese as he takes apart the visitors in the first half and they coast home in the second. Keep an eye on the crowd reaction to Todd Carney. Should be interesting.

Man of the Match Prediction: Josh Dugan
Tip: Canberra 30-20
Result: Roosters 22-12
Man of the Match: Todd Carney
Snap Review:
The Raiders season once again fades away with a performance which left fans disappointed and the Roosters driving up the M5 with two points. The Raiders are horribly unfit. Watching them play this year has made fans very aware of this. They either win by starting strong and holding on to a lead - or lose by giving up huge leads in the second half. I think they have played a good 80 minutes only once... at Mt Smart a few weeks ago.



NZ Warriors v Parramatta

Both teams struggling in attack... both teams struggling with consistency… and both teams sitting outside the top 8. Perhaps a bit premature to say 'must win' for Parra and the Warriors but we aint far from it and looking at these teams on paper, it’s not hard to understand where the problems are. The Eels average 14 points scored per match this year and the Warriors allow an average of 24. It's tough times for these clubs.

Things will only get tougher for one of them on Sunday, but it will be even harder on league fans as this one will turn into a slow, painful grind. In fact I dont even know how anyone is going to score points with current rosters damaged by rep duty and injury. For those of you still reading this preview, sorry about all the negativity. One positive that will come out of this match is the play of James Maloney and big Manu. They bring it home for the Warriors.

Man of the Match Prediction: James Maloney
Tip: NZ Warriors 18-16
Result: NZ Warriors 35-6
Man of the Match: Jerome Ropati
Snap Review:
unvelievabkle finish. The Warriors are confident at home and played accordingly. The Eels lack direction and this is directly related to Daniel Mortimer's loss of confidence over the course of the year. Mortimer needs to be looked after by the coaching staff at Parramatta. He is digging a deeper hole for himself after every mistake when he should be learning from them. The Warriors work hard for each other and if they get injured players coming back they could do something.


St George Illawarra v Penrith

Cooking with Gaz? Is this a Great St George Team? Are they making you Hornby? Is Ainscough 3:16 and Stone Cold Treacy making a return? Saints fans are truly the most inventive when it comes to signs and with the return of Dragons junior Mark Gasnier imminent in this match, I'm hoping for another pearler to come from the Red and White army.

On the field, however, difficult to see anyway that the combination of Wade Graham and Travis Burns will cause any problems for St George Illawarra. Ben Creagh and Dean Young should dominate the ruck and with Jeremy Smith healthy, Saints will be too strong. It's 1 v 2 on the ladder though, so Penrith will have a bit of fight in them but in front of a big crowd to welcome home a forgotten favourite, Saints roll towards September with another W.

Man of the Match Prediction: Ben Creagh
Tip: Dragons 30-12
Result: Panthers 12-8
Man of the Match: Wade Graham
Snap Review:
Credit to the Panthers defence and desire in this match. They truly were committed to winning the ruck and winning field position and controlling posession and limiting errors. All the things that win semi finals. During the season though it just looks a little boring but for those of us who love that kind of footy - this was a screamer.

See our "Minute by Minute Monday Night" blog - delivered in 'retro' form on Tuesday. For live updates go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/

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