Paully's Picks - Round 4

Melbourne v St George Illawarra

Game of the season at this early stage. The two best defensive teams in the competition so it will be uncompromising, aggressive, close and if we are lucky - slightly violent. These teams do have a history of 'restless' behaviour: so let's hope Billy Slater and Jason Nightingale run into each other a few times, and perhaps Jeremy Smith can incite an altercation against his old club??

All the fun aside, Cooper Cronk will make a huge difference to the Storm, as he did last week, and will ignite their attack. His combination with Smith and Slater against a frigid Dragons defense will be like watching a heavyweight title fight without the corrupt officialdom. Ducking, weaving, jabbing, and trying different combinations to punch a hole in the opposition - it will be super entertaining. The Dragons defense holds out and they score enough points through Ben Creagh and an ever improving backline to win a close one.

Man of the Match Prediction: Jeremy Smith
Tip: Saints 19-18
Result: Melbourne 17-4
Man of the Match: Billy Slater
Match Review:
The Dragons have shown once again that their attack might need some fine tuning. The Storm, on the other hand, have shown that they truly are the standard by which all other clubs must be measured against. When you play against the mighty red army from the south, prepare to be smothered. Literally and figuratively. They will suffocate your attack with committed defense. No players on the Storm will ever leave a teammate stranded on a defensive assignment. They will run their attack at your weakest point and will not do this obviously. It will be a measured attack, pointed and delivered at the perfect moment. Just like Cooper Cronk has been doing for two weeks now and on this occasion, did so in the form of that magnificent inside ball to Billy Slater. It was aimed at a tired Dragons defense and that is something we have not been able to say so far this year.



Eastern Suburbs v Brisbane
The Broncos defense was in disarray last week but have a very good opportunity to find redemption here against a Roosters team whose defense was just as bad. However, let's avoid clichés and assume that both teams are not "only as good as their last game". They are in fact much better and will both turn up on Friday night at the SFS. Sam Thaiday in particular will have a lot to prove coming off last week.

The only difference will be that the Roosters have most of their roster still intact whilst the Broncos have a multitude of positional changes. This will be telling when the Bondi boys start controlling the ball through the impressive Mitchell Pearce and then capitalise on the scoreboard through Todd Carney as they attack the visitors’ experimental centre and wing combinations. Darren Lockyer will give all he can (as always) to stop the Broncos losing 3 in a row, but he just won't be able to do it alone.

Man of the Match Prediction: Mitchell Pearce
Tip: Roosters 25-12
Result: Roosters 25-6
Man of the Match: Todd Carney
Match Review:
The Broncos are in a hole; with injury and ball control being the two shovels that will dig them even deeper. As predicted, Brisbane's defense on the left and right corridors was never going to be able to stop such attacking weapons as Phil Graham and Shaun Kenny-Dowall. A very physical opening 15 minutes suggested the visitors might be able to grind out a victory if they maintained possession long enough for Darren Lockyer to craft out points. Unfortunately this commitment from the Broncos did not last. They turned the ball over and the Roosters capitalised by running right through the aforementioned defensive weaknesses.


Cronulla v Parramatta
The Eels are abominable in attack so far this year. However you get the feeling it’s no cause for concern for them or their fans. This confidence will either be their undoing or bring them home with a wet sail as it did last year. There will be no in-between for Parramatta. Speaking of in-between, the Sharks find themselves stuck in between the wood and the spoon. They are in desperate need of 2 points for the sake of the club, the fans and the Shire in general. They need something positive to happen. Could that something be Tim Smith?

No. His combination with Trent Barrett might be a positive, his tactical knowledge of some of the Eels players might be a positive, but the final result will be in the negative for Tim and his new team. Why? Jarryd Hayne, that's why. If the Eels fullback was not playing in this game, one might be tempted to tip an upset. However, he is playing, he will destroy the Sharks and it will be a site to behold. There are no other reasons to tune into a 5.30 game from Shark Park and you shouldn't need one.

Man of the Match Prediction: J. Hayne
Tip: Eels 24-0
Result: Cronulla 11-0
Man of the Match: Paul Gallen
Match Review:
This game of football actually made me laugh. I was receiving text messages from friends about how the first half was "40 minutes of my life I will never get back". Parramatta has played so horribly this season that it actually makes me look forward to their next match - Why? Two reasons...
1. You know they will turn up one day, and with such potential, I don't want to miss out when they do.
2. It is exactly how they played last year, to the point where some rugby league writers seem to be recycling the same opinion articles about how bad the Eels are. Hilarious.
Credit to the Sharks for delivering an inspirational performance. They have the troops to be a quality football team, unfortunately the design of their attack looks as though it's come from a touch football game at training, 17 years ago.



North Qld v Gold Coast
Cowboys coach Neil Henry has named Ray Thompson to partner Thurston in the halves. This will be good for the up-and-coming Thompson and even better for North Qld in the long run. Thurston has been crying out for some help in attack and the Grant Rovelli experiment ended with a whimper last week. So now seems the perfect time to blood a new five eighth: at home against a Gold Coast team that loses potency and direction without captain Scott Prince.

However, the Titans have enough depth to cover this loss with William Zillman coming into the starting squad and a forward pack that is healthy, talented and aggressive in defense. Judging from the way he destroyed the Raiders last week, Greg Bird is finding some form and will be too much for the Cowboys whose home ground does not bring the same advantages it once did. Keep an eye on Thompson though, the kid is talented.

Man of the Match Prediction: Greg Bird
Tip: Titans 18-14
Result: Cowboys 32-18
Man of the Match: Willie Tonga
Match Review:
A very frustrating game to watch, especially if you had taken a risk and put money on the Titans. Hypothetically I mean.
The Cowboys did put together some impressive plays in attack, and defended well against a reserve grade offense, but credit cannot be given entirely to the home side for this victory. The Titans were horrible. Their attack was so poor without Scott Prince and Anthony Laffranchi that at one stage during this game you wondered if they were going to complete another set of six. Greg Bird must have begged his coach to switch Mark Minichiello to the opposite side of the field. The Titans second rower coughed up so much possession in this game that one could be forgiven for thinking that he was doing it on purpose to destroy this blog's multi!!! I did feel sympathy for Mark, but not a lot.
Interesting to note in this game that the Titan's reaction to their first try seemed like they did not care at all. For a visiting team, without their two best players and with a reputation of having poor away form, I would have expected some sort of emotional response to beginning the match so well. Nothing. A sign, I thought, that perhaps they lack confidence and self belief.



NZ Warriors v Manly
Two teams very difficult to gauge; so we will start with the forward packs. Manly by a nose. The Eagles are an experienced outfit who will not suffer the same affliction as other teams when playing across the Tasman. They won't go missing, so this means fireworks in the middle and an exciting game to watch. Steve Matai and Kieran Foran will be revved up in their home country and the latter's halves partner, Trent Hodkinson, has shown maturity beyond his years .This might be enough to cover the Warriors, but with rain predicted in Auckland on Sunday, there is hope for home side.

Not enough though as you just can't go past a superior yardage game. NZ will miss Simon Mannering and Manu Vatuvei. Manly will win the ruck and the match by playing mistake free football. Also, let's hope Jamie Lyon and Brent Tate cross paths in this game. Who can forget their torrid sledging battle in an origin match in 2003? It went for 80 minutes that night and perhaps these two can treat us to another round.

Man of the Match Prediction: Glenn Stewart
Tip: Manly 22-20
Result: Manly 14-6
Man of the Match: Steve Matai
Match Review:
Glenn Stewart has played himself into the NSW side after this performance. Manly have played themselves into top 8 material.
This Eagles team has resolve, and has speed and talent all over the field. Their young halves combination will only improve as the season goes on. The major talking point of this game was obviously the video referee's decision to award Steve Matai a try lat in the game to hand Manly the win. Boring!!
Instead let’s talk about Wade Mackinnon’s abuse of the referee that cost his team two points. He is a dying breed, Wade. The kid from Penrith has a reputation of mouthing off to officials and I hope the mere fact that any continuation of this behaviour will cost his team wins, and possibly a finals berth, will not stop him.
I only wish I could hear what he said.



Canberra v Wests
The Tigers played very well last week. Todd Payton led a willing forward pack to dominate the Eels as Gareth Ellis and Robbie Farah were superb. Add to that the blistering performance from a backline boasting some supreme talent. To complete the package, the Tigers defense, as Benji Marshall says, can turn up whenever they want to.

They may not want to in Canberra on Easter Sunday with temperatures predicted to be as low as 9 degrees and a high of 20. Herein lies the question facing every tipster whenever the Raiders play at home. I must be the millionth person to point this out in a match preview and I must be the millionth person to point out that I've pointed this out! So, the Raiders win at home in a close one with Terry Campese getting plenty of room to move and Bronson Harrison having a blinder against his old club.

Man of the Match Prediction: Terry Campese
Tip: Raiders 32-22
Result: Tigers 35-22
Man of the Match: Robbie Farah
Match Review:
Unbelievable. The Raiders ran with so much aggression and intent in the first 30 minutes of this game that I thought we would have at least one match this year without a miraculous comeback. Wrong again!
The Tigers seem to have so much confidence and patience in their game plan. They never panic. So when they needed points it was simply a matter of using their many attacking weapons and running over, around and through the kids from Canberra. They scored 25 unanswered in 40 minutes.
Questions are no doubt being asked of Terry Campese and his ability late in games to rally his troops. An art mastered by very few, this quality seemed to have deserted the Raiders five-eighth in the final 15 minutes. After seconds of deliberation, two issues spring to my mind about the Raiders/Campo....1. They don't seem to protect him in defense, enabling him to have enough left in the tank to carry the Raiders over the line in games like this, and 2. They are a very young team so this is understandable, but if they do not learn fast another year will be over.



Newcastle v Penrith
Both teams will benefit from the 8 days rest - and will also benefit from playing in a day game. This will be lively. Jarrod Mullen was quiet last week; I don't expect the same this week. The Panthers were sloppy last week; I don't expect the same this week. The Panthers will, however, find it difficult on the road at Newcastle without their sublime back rowers Trent Waterhouse and Frank Pritchard. Instead they will take the field with Gavin Cooper and Nigel Plum. Doesn't quite have the same lethal ring to it.

This is why Newcastle wins the game. In an open contest they have more firepower in the forwards plus Junior Sau and Cooper Vuna returning to the backline. Ben Cross, the Knights best forward from rounds 1 and 2, also comes back and will carry them over the top of the Panthers in an Easter Monday classic. Plenty of tries, plenty of fun and a perfect warm up for Monday Night Football.

Man of the Match Prediction: Jarrod Mullen
Tip: Newcastle 32-26
Result: Penrith 34-30
Man of the Match: Petero Civoniceva
Match Review:
A shoot out. Two teams whose defense won't win premierships but will make for fantastic footy. This game was the complete opposite of last Friday's match between the Storm and the Dragons. Have a look at the ladder at seasons end and you may notice which playing style is more effective. Bummer.
The Knights once again need leadership out on the field. Is Jarrod Mullen the answer? Yes, Jarrod has been playing first grade since the age of 17 and should now be aware of how to steer a football team home when leading by 20 points. Disappointing for Knights fans but fantastic for Panthers fans as their star second rower, Frank Pritchard, played injured and showed the type of courage and commitment you hope to see from your team every week. Michael Jennings could be remembered as one of the great centres in RL history when his career is over, but only if he links up with good coaches for the rest of his career.



South Sydney v Canterbury
Public Holiday MNF is the best kind of MNF. Enjoy your day off and ease into your afternoon with the 4pm game from Newcastle as it prepares you for a belter from ANZ stadium. This game will be close. Souths have a tendency to give a little bit extra in their games against Canterbury and this one will be no different. With a bumper Easter Show crowd in attendance the Bunnies will not want to disappoint their fans. I have a feeling they will.
The Bulldogs have obviously switched on this season but Souths are still to produce their best. We think they have to wait another week as the Dogs discipline and defense gets them home. Brett Kimmorley guides his troops around the field to befuddle the erratic Rabbitohs and they put enough pressure on Sandow and Sutton for Souths to lose direction. The forward battle will be a beauty with Souths having a slight advantage but they fail to capitalise. Mick Ennis v Chris Sandow round 2 will be a highlight, as will the return of Michael Crocker as he chases Ennis around the field looking for a reason to fight. Excellent.

Man of the Match Prediction: Jamal Idris
Tip: Bulldogs 27-20
Result: Souths 38-16
Man of the Match: Isaac Luke
Match Review:
Isaac Luke is thriving under the new coaching system of John Lang. No longer concerned with playing 80 minutes, or coming off the bench for Craig Wing, Luke seems to be toying with opposition defenses as he guides the Rabbioths around the park. John Sutton plays off the back of this success with much space to move out wide; They are impressive.
The Bulldogs were not. Defensively they seem to be waiting for other people to inspire them. They need look no further than Ben Hannant. The QLD front rowers impressive statistics from this game indicate that last year's semi finalists are feeling the effects of injury. They were without 3 regular props on Monday night and were subsequently made to suffer against a willing Rabbits pack.
Canterbury are 1 and 3 this year with their only victory coming against a Roosters team who, at the time, probably should have been in hospital. Danger signs?