Paully's Picks - Round 3

Wests v Parramatta

This game will not live up to the standards set by these two teams in 2009, neither will it be of the same calibre as that memorable round 24 match last year. Now that we have established this, I'll still be watching because Jarryd Hayne and Benji Marshall are playing. Add to that the renaissance that is Lote Tiquri's career and it will be good fun, high scoring and the winner decided in the last 10 minutes. This means we will go with the Tigers to bounce back from last week's defensive debacle that must have had Tim Sheens reaching for the valium. Tim Moltzen to outplay Daniel Mortimer in the halves and Jarryd Hayne will have one of those moments that leaves us all astonished.
Man of the Match Prediction: Robbie Farah
Tip: Tigers 28-26
Result: Tigers 23-12
Man of the Match: Benji Marshall
Match Review:
The Tigers defense turned up. They were aggressive and committed for 80 minutes, specifically Chris Lawrence. Parramatta has a lot of work to do. They need more from Jeff Robson and may not get it from Daniel Mortimer when he returns. Robbie Farah led the attack for Wests after his forwards laid the platform with Marshall reaping the rewards with his great footwork. Special mention to Todd Payton for being the difference in the middle of the field for the Tigers. His leadership was evident in the way the Tigers never really looked like folding in the face of Parramatta's attempted comeback.


St. George Illawarra v Nth Queensland

Jonathan Thurston v The Dragons. That's how this game should be promoted. With the St George Illawarra juggernaut rolling already this year, the Cowboys may not see much possession in this game. If they do, look for Thurston to try everything in his bag of tricks to break the Dragons line. This battle will be super entertaining as JT's bag contains more magic than Houdini and Copperfield combined.
Speaking of combinations, Matt Cooper is reunited with the Saints' backline and will hopefully face a resurgent Willie Tonga. Great matchup of two defensive specialists, if Cooper switches sides in defense. Based on the treatment Michael Jennings received from Thurston on the left edge last week, Cooper might need to. Speaking of treatment, JT will get over-worked in defense and the Dragons run away with it, but not by much.
Man of the Match Prediction: Ben Creagh
Tip: Dragons 22-12
Result: Saints 33-8
Man of the Match: Channel 9 - Ben Creagh. Dally M - Jamie Soward.
Match Review:
Jonathan Thurston got very little help from his team, however the Dragons defense was fantastic. They give the opposition no room whatsoever and are the elite team of the competition so far. For the Cowboys, a shining light was the play of Anthony Watts. So much so that instead of Aaron Payne coming back on for Watts, coach Neil Henry benched the under performing Grant Rovelli and Payne ended up playing 6. This may have worked to give the Cowboys a sniff until Ty Williams' injury forced Rovelli back on to the field. Saints then pulled away when it was all over.



Penrith v Melbourne

Playing the Panthers at home on a Saturday afternoon will be a tough ask. They will pose questions of the opposition defense with the likes of Jennings running off Luke Walsh and the multi talented Luke Lewis. This smooth backline play will be on the back of great lead up work in the middle of the field by an impressive forward pack with Trent Waterhouse returning from injury. Ordinarily, this would be enough to win a game of footy. In this case they are playing the Storm so none of the above will matter. The Storm will defend their line until death or sin bin. Even with a growing list of missing personnel (Hoffman, White, Blair), Melbourne  will welcome back their little general in Cooper Cronk and will win away for the 3rd week in a row. They must be exhausted after consecutive road trips to The Shire, The Hunter and now The Mountains respectively, but this team can handle it.
Man of the Match Prediction: Billy Slater
Tip: Melbourne 17-16
Result: Melbourne 16-10
Man of the Match: Cooper Cronk
Match Review:
Cronk made the already solid Storm even more impressive when he came on to the field. The Penrith Panthers displayed some of the worst ball control we have ever seen. At home no less. Melbourne will only get better and the Panthers might move Petero Civoneceva to halfback after a wonderful grubber that he would have regathered (and perhaps gone all the way) if not for interference. Brilliant.

Manly v Newcastle

My pre-season predictions had both of these teams missing the finals. Going by their results so far, it won't be by much. This game will be equally as close with both teams coming off heart-breaking losses last week. Des Hasler has named a pair of baby eagles in Trent Hodkinson and Kieran Foran to partner each other at halfback and five-eighth respectively, with Lyon moving out to the centres. This could be his un-doing against a very smart and talented Knights squad. Unfortunately, this smart and talented Knights squad have had their telephones tapped by the NSW police and I'm betting that this is a major distraction. Anthony Watmough will not let his team lose 3 in a row and the superior manly forward pack and interchange bench will deliver a much needed win for the Sea Eagles. Tune in to watch Jamie Lyon v Adam MacDougall. I wish they could give Mad Dog a microphone for this match. For fans, this would be 80 minutes of sledging ecstasy. (No pun intended)
Man of the Match Prediction: Anthony Watmough
Tip: Manly 20-16
Result: Manly 36-12
Man of the Match: Glenn Stewart
Match Review:
The Knights were on the wrong end of some very odd refereeing decisions early in this game, but the young Manly halves were impressive. Kicked well, defended well and their forwards set it all up perfectly. Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough particularly strong. The latter's cover defense a highlight. Steve Matai also a standout. Finally, the Eagles may have finally found a replacement for Brett Stewart, although by definition this is impossible. Ben Farrar's support play and attacking ability is encouraging for Manly fans. His defense still to be tested.



Gold Coast v Canberra

The Titans have the look of a team that is aiming for something big this year; a team turns up every week and does not switch off for 80 minutes. They have a great mix of youth and experience whilst Greg Bird now has two games under a new system and will be very hard to stop. Joseph Tomane and David Mead are forming a deadly combination on the Titans' right side and their hardworking back rowers can all play 80 minutes, can all defend the edges, and all have ball skills to promote second phase play and hit hole runners. They even have depth on the interchange bench which has been lacking in the past. Having said all that, I'd never tip Canberra on the road anyway, no matter who they were playing. This is an easy one for ‘safety first’ tipsters. Just on the Raiders (so I don’t sound like the Titans number 1 fan), Campese is a super talent and may give the Titans something to think about, as will Bronson Harrison, but the Gold Coast are too classy at home in this one.
Man of the Match Prediction: Greg Bird
Tip: Titans 24-12
Result: Titans 24-4
Man of the Match: Greg Bird
Match Review:
The Raiders had so little ball in the first half that you wouldn’t have realised they were on the field. Greg Bird delivered the type of performance that must have had John Cartwright (and perhaps Craig Bellamy) salivating. Every touch brought confusion from the defense and opportunities for his runners. The mountain of possession helped, as did the Titans forwards hitting hard early in this one. The Raiders never got into the game, never maintained possession and subsequently were never able to unleash their attacking weapon in Terry Campese. Also - did anyone see that hit on Travis Waddell by Bodene Thompson? Scary.


Brisbane v NZ Warriors

A few years ago, this was consistently a danger match for the Broncos. Warriors teams would always turn up to play Brisbane and these encounters were of the highest quality. I think this happens again on Sunday. A much criticized Warriors line up, picked by many as wooden spooners, impressed in rounds 1 and 2 and will do so again this week. It won't be enough to beat the Broncos but their forwards will stand up and fight to the end. They are a club with something to prove and committment will not be a problem.
The problem on Sunday for New Zealand will be their inexperienced halves combination. James Maloney and Joel Moon will be out of their depth against Darren Lockyer and Pete Wallace. The latter pairing will turn the Warriors forwards around for 80 minutes in the Brisbane heat (2pm kick off with predicted temperatures of up to 28 degrees) and make them pay in the last quarter. The final score will not reflect how close this game was with Folau and Lockyer running amok late in the game against an exhausted opponent.
Man of the Match Prediction: Israel Folau
Tip: Broncos 30-12
Result: Warriors 48-16
Man of the Match: Aaron Heremaia
Match Review:
Looked like an episode of MASH in the first half. Players dropping like flies with dislocated shoulders and fingers and so many of them leaving the field for good. Unbelievable. When it all settled down, the Broncos could not replace their missing players as well as NZ. The Brisbane defense suffered and at times they looked disinterested in tackling. The heat played into the hands of the visitors and threw a big steaming pile of humble pie right in my face. I'll cop it and credit to the Warriors for giving the other NRL teams something to fear again when they face this team. 


Canterbury v Eastern Suburbs

Dogs of War? The Entertainers? Premiership Favourites?
All that we have heard about this club needs to be proven, again. I don't mean to jump the gun with warnings of a club in crisis in round 3, but one can't help but wonder how this Dogs team will come up with a performance to get their season on track. A lazy showing in round 1, completely dominated in round 2, what will the Bulldogs bring in round 3? A win; that’s what. Most league fans who've been around a while will know the reputation of which I speak. They will know that the dogs will eventually turn up, the trick is guessing when. My guess is Sunday afternoon at about 3pm, in Homebush.
They steel themselves defensively for the offensive onslaught that is the Roosters of 2010 (amazingly) and play with a grit and determination that brings the visiting Carney and co. back down to earth. The Bulldogs only option is to grind out a victory here. They struggle with the ball due to an attacking arsenal showing severe signs of depletion, but revert to a strategy that brings them the two points. Defence wins. Credit to the Roosters for two scintillating performances so far this year, but this is my upset of the week with the Bondi boys' form line making them favourites.
Man of the Match Prediction: Brett Kimmorley
Tip: Bulldogs 20-18
Result: Bulldogs 60-14
Man of the Match: Josh Morris
Match Review:
The Roosters were never in it. By the looks of them they gave up after seeing doctors all week instead of training. Last week's horror in the sun took its toll as the Bulldogs showed intent right from the kick off. They looked confident, aggressive and spirited. Never stopped talking through 80 minutes and this is the sign of a team committed to each other. The Roosters will be back though, they just need a long sleep.



Cronulla v South Sydney

Positional changes this early in the year means that all pre-season planning is being scrapped. Bad signs for the Sharks as cohesion and confidence will suffer. Particularly interesting is coach Ricky Stuart's decision to dump his young halfback after two games (one of them after a death in the family) in favour of veteran utility John Morris. That might not be good for team morale. The Sharks' sputtering attack does need an overhaul so trying something different might be a good move, but this week it won't matter.
The Rabbitohs desperation for 2 points will get them over the line after 10 days rest but it won't be pretty. The Sharks are going to turn this game into a scrappy affair and try their best to slow down the play the ball.... and the entire match. It works and makes for ugly viewing, but does not get them the win as John Sutton finds a way to shine amidst the mire of Cronulla football. Actually, a scrappy affair usually means an entertaining forward battle, these two packs will be out to hurt each other and we expect to see some fists flying.
Man of the Match Prediction: John Sutton
Tip: Souths 19-12
Result: Souths 30-8
Man of the Match: Isaac Luke
Match Review:
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