Paully's Picks - 2014 FInals week 1

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Finals. What a way to kick things off with two old Sydney rivals. They’ve played each other 133 times since 1947 and fans have truly hated each other with a passion at every single one of those games. Certainly, every Souths fan I know has more than just the average Manly hatred running through their veins - it’s passed down from their rugby league ancestors. So, with the stage set for your Second Qualifying Final, we head to Bunnies’ headquarters at Allianz Stadium for Friday night footy.

No secret that the Eagles have not been at their best lately, they’ve lost 3 from their past 5 including a 20 point thumping at the hands of Souths. Ordinarily, it wouldn’t be hard to see them stepping up for the finals and changing that momentum but this year, a big ask. The Rabbitohs have been priming themselves for this battle for 3 years and with plenty of semi-final experience of their own to call on, they’ll finish stronger. Keep any eye on Luke Keary barking his way through the 80 minutes. Hilarious.

My tip: South Sydney 18-8

 

Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers

The defending premiers, minor premiers and competition favourites are your shortest price this week. They are clearly the form team of the competition and with weapons from 1 through 17, they will take some stopping this Saturday against Penrith at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers have blown minds over the past 6 weeks with some impressive performances under duress and their reward was to finish 4^th – but this is a bigger challenge for a team that has never played finals footy together.

Still – you can bet Ivan Cleary will have something special planned for the Chooks and I can’t wait to see it. This is your match of the round and one that the Panthers will keep close, right to the end. More importantly though – don’t miss the beginning – the Roosters forwards are a daunting bunch and with their beloved captain only a month away from the end of his career, they will be frothing at the mouth, champing at the bit and getting themselves a week off.

My tip: Roosters 24-12

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Bronco

Saturday night from Townsville where the Cowboys are undefeated since round 3 this year and undefeated in finals footy since forever. No doubt they will be tested here through – the Broncos have nothing to lose and will always have a little extra in the tank when playing against their Queensland rivals.  Add to this the superb form of their halfback, Ben Hunt and you have yourselves a close one with Brisbane scaring the pants off the home side for a while – but not long enough.

Johnathan Thurston, despite what the talking heads have been yapping about, is not in career best form – he has always been this good. The differences this year, for mine, are that he is not carrying a serious injury for once, and that his forwards are playing outstanding football. Of course, the two are intertwined – JTs shoulders have not had to carry the burden of 40 tackles a game. Speaking of JTs forwards, they will be the difference here with the Sims brothers, Matt Scott and future superstar Jason Taumalolo the standouts.

My tip: Cowboys 24-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Week 1 of the finals rounds out with your Second Elimination Final from AAMI Park in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon. The ‘Dogs are hobbling but worse than this, it’s tough to guess which Bulldogs team will turn up. Will it be the premiership calibre side that beat Melbourne at this very ground in round 18? Or will it be the side that slumped to its 6^th loss in 8 games against the Titans last week? Don’t answer that cos it may not matter.

The Storm don’t need to worry about form, don’t need to worry about consistency and are not confused about which personality they will play with in front of a packed house full of rabid purple pride punters. They are rightfully heavy favourites here and unless Canterbury can make adjustments to their attack, Melbourne will strangle them out of the season. The visitors have not been very creative will the ball of late and Melbourne’s defence simply won’t be tested enough.

My tip: Storm 19-12

Paully's Picks - Round 26, 2014

Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 26 and your match of the round kicks off a weekend where dreams will come true for some and Mad Monday will begin for others. Either way, rugby league can’t lose. First cab off the rank? Your match of the round and what a beauty this will be. It’s the second-best rivalry going around this weekend behind ‘rickygate’ in Canberra but we dare say this will see some better footy played.

And most of that footy will come from the Chooks. Seeing the best of Mitchell Pearce should be so rewarding for those that have stuck by him. Seeing this team play a brand of footy that is true to the spirit of the game and entertaining as well should set the example for all future coaches out there. By contrast, anyone watching Souths should watch Greg Inglis and avoid making eye contact with anything else that Souths dish out.

My tip: Roosters 16-12

 

Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

If you haven’t worked out that wrestling has potentially already destroyed the greatest game of all – take a look at this match a little closer. Your Friday night neck breaker from AAMI Park in Melbourne highlights two clubs who’ve done well in the squared circle over the years. The Storm have led the way over a number of years when it comes to the old sleeper hold and should be proud of what they have ruined.

Now, ironically, to make the top 8, Brisbane need to beat the home side without their captain and best player, Sam Thaiday, after he was suspended for wrestling. Apparently the NRL can suspend people but have admitted this is not going to be a deterrent. Just wonderful stuff. Speaking of wonderful stuff, keep an eye on the two halfbacks in this match. Cooper Cronk and Ben Hunt put on a clinic.

My tip: Melbourne 19-12
 

Wests Tigers v Cronulla Sharks

Saturday afternoon from Leichhardt Oval and the rugby league puritans could not think of a better way to bid farewell to a couple of teams who’ve done it very tough this year. The Tigers kicked off the season in style, mostly, but have since come under fire because, effectively, their captain is not ‘one of the boys’. Well, Robbie certainly deserves to hit Mad Monday with style and we are sure he will.

Speaking of Mad Monday, they may as well honour what this great footy ground was built for – punters to hit the sauce very early on their weekend and continue into a happy and hazy evening on Balmain Road. If you think Farah and his crew won’t make it all the way to the Sackville, you’re kidding yourself. Cronulla may not be able to find their form of a week ago but if its form you’re after, look elsewhere.

My tip: Tigers 14-12

 

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Last time these clubs met, a round 22 special from Darwin, the Raiders led for most of the contest until Jarryd Hayne found a hole and taxied right through it. This time, Parra must leave everything on the field if they are to be any chance of sneaking into the playoffs. A huge ask for a young team with a horrific away record in 2014 and perhaps, by kick off, nothing to play for.

Look for the Raiders to dominate here as a promising season for the visitors comes to a disappointing end. A tip of the hat to Brad Arthur and his crew though, they have avoided a 19^th straight wooden spoon. Speaking of hat tipping, here’s to Brett White who plays his last NRL match and speaking of farewells, keep an eye on Canberra fans shedding more tears as they watch another all-star half leave their club. Anthony Milford, we hardly knew ya.

My tip: Raiders 30-20

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

An emotional night for the home side. Firstly, they’ll be bidding a fond farewell to retiring centre, Brent Tate and secondly, this could be the last time in 2014 where a refereeing decision goes their way. So, with the starting 17 fully recovered from the flu and their motivation reaching its peak, the Cowboys are justified favourites against Manly at 1300SMILES stadium on Saturday night.

Some fantastic matchups here. First and foremost, two quality, premiership contenders who don’t wrestle as part of their Plan A. Secondly, Johnathan Thurston against DCE. Finally and most importantly, keep an eye on the Cowboys back row outplaying the likes of Justin Horo and Tom Symonds and this is where the home side has an edge. They control the ruck and control the edges to win.

My tip: North Queensland 20-16
 

Newcastle Knights v St George Illawarra Dragons

Ahh, the godfather of the wrestle, Wayne Bennett. Fingers crossed that El Capo realises what a horrible mistake he made when he first hired a wrestling coach in Brisbane all those years ago. I doubt it. Moving on, The Bennett coached Knights have had a terrible year. Unable to grasp his defensive instructions, the Wrestle, it would seem, is not part of the DNA of this great town’s footballing culture. Thank god.

So, they finish a forgettable season hosting the Dragons for old boys’ day and it will be a huge ask for the visitors to march into Mad Monday with a win here. The Knights are undefeated at home over their past 4 matches, average just under 30 points per game in attack over that span. They’ll turn it on again here and put away the Dragons after another brave effort from Paul McGregor’s men.

My tip: Newcastle 22-18

 

Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Sunday afternoon from Robina and what a place to organise your Mad Monday festivities. Firstly, you can bet John Cartwright will be a part of the fun; secondly, you can bet Dave Taylor will be falling out of beds all over the Gold Coast next week and finally, a tip of the hat to one of this ‘columns’ favourite players over the years, Luke “Bull” Bailey.

From his humble beginnings at St George-Illawarra, Bailey always looked like a leader and played like one. This is his last match and it’s only fitting that the Bulldogs’ monster pack will make sure it’s a tough one. The ‘Dogs are limping into the finals with a stuttering attack but their season long commitment to defence should get them the win here.

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16

Penrith Panthers v New Zealand Warriors

By kick off, the Warriors will know everything they need to know so fingers crossed for the Puppets and Muppets in charge of your pay-tv broadcaster that this match is not a ‘dead rubber’, so to speak. Either way, we hope that all the Dad’s out there enjoyed their father’s day by not getting off the couch for the entire Sunday arvo triple header.

You made it, you mad bastards. So strap yourselves in for the regular season finale as the Panthers give it all they got to ensure a top 4 finish at Sportingbet Stadium in front of their loyal fans. Matt Moylan the standout again but it’s the tough-as-nails Penrith forwards who turn up to ensure another win.

My tip: Penrith 24-18

Paully's Picks - Round 25, 2014

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 25 and this one is just the tonic needed to get long suffering crowd numbers back to somewhere near respectable. The ‘Dogs hosting the Bunnies at ANZ stadium and this should be a beauty. Canterbury captain and loyal servant for 5 years, Michael Ennis, plays his final game in front of the blue and white faithful and this should spur him on to be even more annoying than usual. Issac Luke must really be looking forward to this.

Speaking of which, South Sydney fans should also be looking forward to this one after they were shown up by the Cowboys last week. The Rabbitohs come in as very heavy favourites and should be back to their best here. Which means they will slow down the play the ball and try to outmuscle the Bulldogs pack. This will be the highlight; two very big and very aggressive sets of forwards having a good crack at each other but it’s the Burgess boys and Greg Inglis standing tall.

My tip: South Sydney 18-8

 

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

Friday night footy comes to us from Suncorp Stadium, for the last goddamn time – finally. Or, at least until next year when your free-to-air broadcaster needs the ratings in Queensland and subjects us all to this diabolical scheduling stupidity. Moving on – Saints need this one to stay in the hunt, excuse the pun, and whilst they have a fantastic record up in Vegas, they will find the going very tough here as the Broncos continue their march towards a miracle spot in the 8.

I’ll spare you the ‘for and against’ jargon – but saints gotta win by plenty to be confident next week. They won’t. Whilst Brisbane have been inconsistent of late, they play a brand of footy that will keep the visitors guessing. With the extra motivation of bidding adieu to a coach who has effectively raised many of them from pups, the Broncos should be too good here. Ben Hunt and the Brisbane back row lead from the front as Saints head towards Mad Monday.

My tip: Brisbane 24-20

 

Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels

Saturday afternoon from Hunter Stadium and by rights, the Eels should walk away with this one. With their season on the line and on the back of the best 40 minutes they have played in 3 years, they should march up the M1, throttle the home side and come home with 2 points and a place in the semis. But dagnab it – something happens to the slippery Eels when they go on a road trip and by the same token, something happens to the Knights when they play at home.

The punters disagree, Parra are sitting pretty as favourites as we head into Thursday and whilst I’m not one to argue with the weight of the dollar, here I go. The Knights play their second last game of one of the worst seasons in their proud history and at home over the past 3 games, they are undefeated. The scary thing is over the last 6 games overall, they’ve given up an average of just over 30 in defence. Good purchase, Brisbane.

My tip: Newcastle 28-24

 

Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

There isn’t a marketing team in the world that can help this one but true rugby league fans (read – gamblers) will be glued to their mobile devices to watch this one. Everyone watches footy via digital pass now don’t they? Nobody wastes their money on our countries ONLY pay-tv provider anymore do they? Of course not. So, your 5.30pm game comes from GIO Stadium in Canberra as the Raiders host the Tigers and it might be a bit too cold for the visitors but things will heat up, for a few reasons.

Jarrod Croker is in a furious battle to be the seasons leading point scorer, bless him; Mitch Cornish finally gets the number 7 jersey and this will absolutely delight Raiders fans who have been begging for his promotion all season long. If these two fascinating reasons haven’t sparked your interest to beyond supernova type proportions, then there’s nothing I can do for you. Anthony Milford the standout again as the Tigers’ suffering continues.

My tip: Canberra 20-12

Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm

Saturday night from a wet and wintry Allianz Stadium and this is your match of the round. The reigning premiers host the Storm but it’s a pity nobody will be there to see it. Melbourne are peaking at the right time of year, again, and the Roosters look downright unstoppable. They are at full strength and would be a terrifying sight for anyone right now except Storm coach Craig Bellamy who’ll no doubt relish the challenge of facing the chooks so close to the playoffs.

Bellamy and the Storm may not show all their tricks on Saturday night but they’ll certainly be hoping to slow this one down to a screeching halt. Cooper Cronk plays his 250^th first grade match and as with his previous 249, he’ll be quietly and subtly sledging his way through this as only Cooper can. Keep an eye on two premiership favourites getting under each other’s skin as they jostle for position before the real matches are played in a fortnight.

My tip: Chooks 18-14
 

New Zealand Warriors v Gold Coast Titans

The Warriors were shell-shocked last week at home when the Roosters taught them a footballing lesson. Now, with another chance to sneak into the semi-finals, they’ll be battle hardened and won’t make the same mistakes again on Sunday afternoon against the visiting Titans. They are $1.15 favourites and for those of you looking for desperate measures to win a tipping comp, look elsewhere. The Titans can’t possibly mess things up here, can they?

Don’t answer that. Just tip the Warriors and be done with your dreams of jagging an upset. Be done with your dreams of sneaking one back on the blokes who’ve been leading the tipping comp all year and just cos you think they’ll play it safe and tip the favourites, doesn’t mean that shit ain’t working. I’ve really gotta stop talking to myself in these ‘previews’. The Warriors play their last home game of a difficult season and say thanks to their fans with a win.

My tip: New Zealand 28-18

 

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Penrith Panthers

Brookvale Oval on Sunday afternoon as the mighty Eagles play their last home game of the season and bid farewell to one of their favourite sons and much loved local junior, Jason King. A true warrior of the game and proud co-captain of the club, King will enjoy an emotional farewell at Brooky and his teammates will be just as passionate. Might be just the juice Manly need to get out of their current funk. Although, they’ve only lost 2 from their past 4 and are still sitting 1^st.

So…… (take a deep breath) …….. with panic not setting in anywhere except a few commentators and league writers who can’t find any good stories cos no player or coach wants to talk to them cos they are douchebags…. the Eagles continue another brilliant season and bounce back with a win here. Oh yeah, they are playing against Penrith. Expect the Panthers to start this game well and play good percentage footy but it won’t last against a rejuvenated Manly squad.

My tip: Sea Eagles 24-14

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

What can we say about the Cowboys? Well, they have the best halfback in the game but more than this, they have a halfback who is not a protected species like some of his counterparts, does not hide in the defensive line like some other halves, always plays injured, always behaves like a role model for kids and has lead his team to 5 wins from their past 6 matches. That’s right ladies and gentleman, I give you Robert Lui.

Jokes aside, Jonathan Thurston could be a future immortal and as he primes himself for another shot at the title, this match on Monday night from 1300Smiles Stadium should be nothing more than a practice run for him and his crew of weapons. What can we say about the Sharks? Well, my mates recently booked a weekend at a house on the beach at Bundeena for the upcoming summer and I can’t wait. Cowboys by a bit.

My tip: North Queensland 40-0