Paully's Picks - Round 21

Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos

The smell of springtime and September approaches fast. In the harsh world of Rugby League, this can often smell like 3 day old road-kill and for one of these teams, that filthy stench could be just around the corner. The Knights have been hovering just below the top 4 since mid-season and the Broncos could have easily kissed their 2013 chances goodbye last week, if not for some flimsy Cowboys defense.

So, with the faint smell of success still luring these teams to greater heights, the Knights and the Broncos square up to open round 21 from Hunter Stadium on Friday night. The Ben Hunt halfback experiment continues for the Broncos and whilst he showed signs last week, he’ll have to overcome Wayne Bennett’s famous defensive structure to get the visitors home this week. He won’t. Tyrone Roberts and Jarrod Mullen too good.

My tip: Newcastle 19-12


Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters

The Chooks represent a changing of the guard in the NRL. Stay with me for a minute…. For too long, the wrestling tactics of the Melbourne Storm, Wayne Bennett and a few other 1st grade coaches have slowed the game down to a grinding, miserable halt. Yes – I’m bitching – and I’m not finished. With the banning of the shoulder charge, you rarely see teams go berserk in defense and to the league’s detriment; these tactics don’t deliver much of a spectacle.

To the point, the Roosters gave up 14 penalties last week and still looked good. Yes, they held down in the ruck a few times but they are not committed to the wrestle as a number 1 priority. They let the ball do the work and look great doing it. What a breath of fresh air. This week, they travel to Centrebet Stadium to take on the Panthers who suddenly look for small and very slow. A good year for Penrith but they've worked hard and now must be buggered.

My tip: Roosters 30-12


New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sharks

The Warriors; another football team who refuse to conform and design their play around slowing everything down. Since round 10 this year, they’ve won 7 from 8 and averaged over 26 points with the footy. Shaun Johnson has found his feet again and Kevin Locke has overcome his many injury problems. Blink and you’ll miss them. Up front, Simon Mannering is dominating everything he touches and looks like a supreme skipper.

This Saturday, it’s the Sharks who visit Mt Smart Stadium and joining them on the flight over are none other than Paul Gallen and Wade Graham. Their skipper and skipper in waiting, respectively. Gallen and Graham’s plan will be to slow down the play the ball to a near crawl and then give Todd Carney enough space to confuse the Warriors back three with his kicking game – I guess. It won’t work. Warriors are absolutely brimming with confidence.

My tip: New Zealand 24-6


Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles

A mate who does not follow Rugby League recently asked me what seemed a very simple question, “why are Parra so bad?” Where to start. It’s been a few years of board level turmoil that has led them to some serious problems internally, but if we started that conversation we may never have finished. You just can’t blame one person or put it all down to one moment or one thing – but over time, over many moments, they’ve become a disaster.

This week? Some more positional changes for the Eels but it doesn't get easier for the blue and gold faithful. Manly are heading west for your Saturday night special from Parramatta Stadium. The Eels have been brave at home for many games this season and they’ll be trying hard here but simply cannot keep up with an Eagles outfit who've won their past 4 matches including putting 50 on the Eels only a month ago.

My tip: Manly 36-12


North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs

So, the Neil Henry experiment has come to an end, sort of. The Cowboys “announced” that Henry would not be 1st grade coach in 2014 so after over 100 games coached for North Queensland, he now tries to inspire a team who knows he won’t be around in a few weeks. This would only happen in the NRL. Just to add a bit more flavour to your Saturday evening night cap, the league leaders are heading to Townsville.

South Sydney sit on top of the table and have a mean and nasty forward pack leading the way. In fact, Souths play like what you imagine North Queensland should play like when you read their roster. It’s been a disappointing season for the home side and it’s about to get worse. They might be playing with a bit more freedom this weekend but the Rabbitohs should be too good. The patience and control of Adam Reynolds gets Souths home.

My tip: Souths 22-20


Canberra Raiders v Melbourne Storm

Your match of the round comes from the nation’s capital this Sunday afternoon and what a beauty it will be. The Raiders are undefeated at home and have a good recent record against the mighty Melbourne Storm. They match up well against the defending champs with a powerful forward pack who often prove too strong to lift, pull, stretch and spin. The wrestle is therefore nullified and the Raiders then start running.

This could happen again on Sunday and with the home side boasting some serious weapons out wide, the visitors won’t want to give them a sniff. Melbourne won’t be too worried about their opponents though; they’ve lost 4 from their past 5 and whilst this is no indication of form for a team like Melbourne, they’ll be keen to get some momentum moving into August. They start favourites here but the Raiders will be too good in Josh McCrone’s 100th game.

My tip: Canberra 20-16


Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers

Mad Monday celebrations should be the hot topic here. If not – then perhaps the ‘senior playing group’ of the Tigers and the Titans might wanna get their house in order. August is usually the month where we first hear phrases like ‘mathematical equation’ and ‘destiny is out of their hands’. For these two teams, there aint no abacus big enough and they both look destined for darkness in 2013. It’s been particularly tough for the Tigers.

Wests are on another losing streak and just can’t finish this season quick enough. The Titans have been ravaged by injuries and just can’t defend their try-line. So what happens here? Well, if Benji Marshall gives a hoot about the club he has represented for 10 years of his life, he will turn up her for pride and pride only. Not likely – he still looks filthy about the club’s reneging and his teammates know it. Gold Coast make their 200 fans happy, finally.

My tip: Titans 30-26


St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

A week too late, this one. The Bulldogs travel to Kogarah’s WIN Jubilee Oval for Monday Night Football to close out round 21. A wonderful local derby and even after the Dragons’ merger, these colours still inspire hatred amongst two very passionate fan bases. The short trip from Belmore to Banksia is long enough to get the juices flowing here and Saints will turn up to play at their traditional home ground.

Unfortunately, their attack is still a step slow and nothing can turn this around, unless the Bulldogs give them the footy through error, as they’ve done a few times this year. Not this time. The hard work of Aidan Tolman and James Graham will open things up for the likes of Eastwood and Pritchard and then, Saints may not have an answer. Tim Lafai takes advantage of another shot at first grade and is one to watch here.

My tip: Bulldogs 22-12

Paully's Picks - Rivalry Round 2013

North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos

Rivalry Round. You little beauty. We kick off with a Queensland derby as the Cowboys host the Broncos. Oh how the mighty have fallen. These contests used to be about the Broncos picking on their little brother – then moved into a phase where the Cowboys were all grown up and began to dominate. Now, with this seasons form lines not looking good for either club, we have 13 v 12 on the ladder and these brothers are looking like mothers.

With origin representatives coming back from active duty, a collection of superstars may help this match reach the heights that rivalry round deserves, but more likely you’ll have determined defence against a fumbling attack. The Broncos, specifically, have struggled for creativity so Peter Wallace and Corey Norman have been sacrificed as a result. It won’t make a lick of difference as the Cowboys get a Bowen/Thurston combination going just like old times.

My tip: North Queensland 22-16

 

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels

One of the great rivalries of the 80’s, 90’s and still plenty of memories from the past decade. Two proud Sydney clubs who’ve given us so many wonderful moments, so many violent altercations and the only time Nathan Hindmarsh ever went ballistic on a footy field. This time round, the Eels are miles away from any wonderful moments and are anchored to the wooden spoon position. Defence is their biggest problem, amongst many.

Canterbury are $1.10 favourites here but with the Eels occasionally showing a bit of movement in their rotting corpse, they’ll start strong and challenge the ‘Dogs early. Eventually, the home side’s forward pack will take over the contest with James Graham and a well-rested Frank Pritchard leading the way. Throw in Tony Williams playing his 100^th first grade game and the Bulldogs win this one up the middle. Could get ugly.

My tip: Bulldogs 32-12

 

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

Nice piece of scheduling from the NRL. This fixture now falls into the ‘rivalry’ classification. For those of you who don't know about the hoodoo… Actually, you wouldn't be reading this if you didn’t already know that the Dragons have not beaten Canberra, anywhere, since 2007. So, this time round the Raiders head to Wollongong as favourites and the Dragons have struggled mightily with the ball in hand until the final moments of last week’s comeback victory against Souths.

Canberra have not won an away game since round 8 this year at Melbourne – but do have the advantage up front in this match. The Raiders’ forward pack will be tested here – partly because they are penalised heavily on the road and partly because Saints always have a spring in their step in the ‘gong. Joel Thompson gets a sneak preview of his future teammates – which reminds me how much I hate the mid-season signing rule.

My tip: Raiders 24-14

Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs

The inevitable ugly duckling of rivalry round. Some matches simply cannot fit into the sentiment of this weekend so we sacrifice one or two for the greater good. Saturday night at Skilled Park has the table topping Bunnies taking on the Titans. South Sydney had won 5 in a row before losing last Monday night and if coach Michael Maguire’s reputation is anything close to the real thing, he’ll be a little angry and a lot tougher on his players this week.

The visitors attack might not be as exciting without Greg Inglis but their defence will respond with brutality as Maguire gets them rolling all over the befuddled Titans. Once again, the Titans outside backs show they are not quite ready for 1^st grade so keep an eye on Bryson Goodwin and Dylan Walker to bust this one open when the forwards have finished wrestling the crap out of each other. Issac Luke makes up for his struggles last week.

My tip: Souths 22-10

 

New Zealand Warriors v Melbourne Storm

A tip of the hat to Matthew Elliott who has not only proven many critics wrong but withstood the mounting pressure after his club lost 8 of their first 10 matches to begin the season. They’ve since lost only 1. This week, they host the reigning premiers from Mt Smart Stadium to kick of your Sunday triple header; A sign that we are now finished with the rep schedule and back into the season proper  - this is usually also a sign that the Melbourne Storm are about to shift gears.

It’s now survival of the fittest. So, with the Storm superstars returning uninjured and hopefully, refreshed, we’ll start seeing the best of Melbourne. This comes at a perfect time with the Warriors bound to deliver. Your match of the round won’t disappoint as the home side kicks ahead early with Melbourne making up some ground late. The battle between Shaun Johnson and Cooper Cronk a highlight. One will dazzle you to death whilst the other completely suffocates you.

My tip: Warriors 18-16

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Penrith Panthers

For a couple of teams with real top 8 aspirations, they both copped a pounding last week. The undermanned Sharks blew into Allianz Stadium and were blown right back out by a dominant Roosters team, giving up 40. The Panthers fought hard for most of the match, in fact they had the better of the first 38 minutes, but still gave up 32 to the Knights. Flanno and Ivan Cleary would not be happy.

And neither will fans watching this match at Remondis Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Both teams will focus on defence mid-week and the results may put you to sleep. They’ll play the percentages and won’t take any risks – unless Todd Carney has one of those games he is capable of having. Fingers crossed. The Sharks desperately missed Luke Lewis last week and will again here, but with Carney, they are still capable of more.

My tip: Cronulla 18-14

 

Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters

Sunday afternoon’s triple header finishes at Hunter Stadium in Newcastle as the Knights host the Roosters. The home side is really starting to look like a Wayne Bennett coached team. A good start to the season, followed by a mid-year slump, and now – winners of their past 3. Bennett reputedly flogs his players at training during the middle rounds and the Knights lost 4 in a row over that span. They’re now primed for the business end.

Speaking of primed, the Roosters are clicking again and have won their past 4. The chooks defence hasn’t allowed a point in their past two matches; outstanding. Your match of the round will bring a patient approach from the Knights as they hope to run away with this at the back end, but the Roosters simply have too much firepower to be kept at bay for this long. If only the rules allowed for Willie Mason and SBW to square off in the middle of the park.

My tip: Roosters 18-8

Wests Tigers v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

A beauty from the Wild West. The Eagles have hit their stride with 3 straight wins but more impressively, have averaged 40 points per game with the ball over that span. This could spell danger for the Tigers who’ve had a horrible year all round. They’ve struggled with a horrific injury toll and their famous free flowing attack has stalled on a number of occasions. Now, with the news they’ll be without Benji Marshall next year, fans must be at breaking point.

So, Monday night footy from Campbelltown should see them finally crack, into a million pieces. The Tigers will start strong and get the Eagles on the back foot but Manly’s attack is clicking into high gear with their spine intact and their forwards healthy. A tip of the hat to Robbie Farah who plays his 200^th first grade game, all for the mighty black and white and golds, but on Monday night he’ll again be playing a lone hand.

My tip: Manly 32-20

My 200th Blog Post. Paully's Picks - Round 19, 2013.

Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors

The Tigers have copped plenty of criticism in their short history as a club. Who can forget the ambush of Robbie Farah on pay television, with ex footballers accusing his team of being "soft".. And Benji Marshall seems to be the target at one point, seemingly, every year. But this current round of attacks seems a little more personal, after a loss to the Sharks, which, interestingly, followed a win over Melbourne. How does he respond?

Well, for starters, Benji and his manger have decided to never play Rugby League again after 2013. Not a bad response, but one that may not help the Tigers this Friday night at Leichhardt Oval as they host the Warriors to kick off Round 19 of the season.  Blake Ayshford plays his 100^th first grade game and if the home ground advantage doesn’t help Wests here, nothing else can. The Warriors will be well rested and will finish stronger.

My tip: New Zealand 30-14

 

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Oh, to be a fly on the wall inside the Eels dressing room. What on earth can Ricky Stuart possibly be saying to this band of mercenaries to motivate them for a Saturday night encounter in our nation’s capital? Dress warm? Go hard? Be professional? Well, whatever inspiration Parramatta have to rise above the filthy mess that is their season; one can only hope they find it before kick-off because this could get ugly.

The Eels are $7 outsiders and rightly so. Canberra are undefeated at home this season and have recently uncovered a couple of future superstars in Josh Papalii and Anthony Milford. Add to that a healthy pack of forwards, mostly, and the Raiders should have no trouble with this one. Terry Campese steers them around the park and is sure to target the many weaknesses in the Eels defensive line.

My tip: Canberra 42-12

 

Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sharks

2 v 5 on the ladder and your match of the round this week. A beauty from Allianz Stadium on Saturday night as the Roosters host the Sharks. Whether Todd Carney wants to prove a point here, or not, he’s still the best playmaker on the field and the league leading Roosters defence will be all over him from kick off. This battle will be intense and Carney will need plenty of help from his forwards to find any space.

He may not get it. The chooks’ forward pack has been designed to destroy at both ends of the field.  They’ll be pointed in Carney’s direction and then, with field position, should be putting points on Cronulla at the back end of each half. Jeff Robson’s toughness in defence and direction in attack will be missed. Bryce Gibbs v Jared Warea-Hargreaves a highlight of niggling at its best. The Roosters win their 4^th straight.

My tip: Roosters 18-12

 

Penrith Panthers v Newcastle Knights

Sunday arvo from Centrebet. The Panthers are riding a 3 match winning streak coming into this match and if you remember the earlier fixture between these clubs in round 6, Penrith gave the Knights all they could handle and just fell short in what was supposed to be an easy win for the Knights. If you did see that game, you’ll also remember it as the worst game of the season up to that point and probably still.

So, fingers crossed the Panthers play to their much improved potential and give the Knights another good shake. Speaking of Newcastle, they’ve looked good since Danny Buderus returned from injury and will play a very patient brand of football in this match, waiting for the young Panthers to make mistakes, but they won’t. Penrith continue their remarkable turnaround and ruin the homecoming of a Panthers legend in Craig Gower. 

My tip: Penrith 18-16

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Gold Coast Titans

Manly have piled up the points over the last fortnight, nailing the Eels with 50 and then going up to Townsville and putting 34 on an undermanned Cowboys team. This week at Brookvale against the Titans, with their halfback and five-eighth together again, it could be the same story. The Titans have some good halves of their own, but Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly have hit a wall that all young 1^st graders hit. The grind of the NRL has got them.

If they can’t turn things around for this match, things could look worse than they have for the visitors in recent times, if that’s possible. They’ve given up 86 points in their last two matches and have a 2 and 5 record on the road this year. John Cartwright will do his best to get the Gold Coast defence sorted but he simply does not have the cattle. Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai could have a field day against the Titans’ inexperienced outside backs.

My tip: Manly 30-10

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons

Looking at the numbers in this match makes you cringe. Sure, footy fans know the cycle of success is exactly that, a cycle, but none of them would have predicted the kind of downfall experienced by the famous red V in the last two years. So, back to the numbers. Souths have the NRL’s best attack with 26 per game whilst the Dragons are hovering around 13. There is just no way they’ll get any more than this on Monday night as round 19 comes to a close from ANZ Stadium.

St George Illawarra are huge outsiders here and even with the return of Matt Cooper, the motivation of Jason Nightingales 150^th 1^st grade game and a new number 6 in Adam Quinlan, an upset would require South Sydney to fall in a hole. Possibly into the very same the hole in the ANZ stadium turf my soul collapsed on Wednesday night– or possibly from the collective tears of 80,000 New South Welshman drained into the grass – or a streakers divot.

My tip: Souths 30-6