NSW hits the panic button

There is always over-reaction, always a little too much drama and always from the same people.

The wash up from origin 1 last Wednesday night has been all of the above and then some. There has been a thunderous outcry for changes to be made to the NSW origin team, the coach to be sacked, the selectors to take a big jump from somewhere very high and of course for positional changes. This last point I can understand to a degree, but the others simply reek of a lack of appreciation of history.

The game itself was not one of the better origin matches. Don't get me wrong... the intensity was definitely there from both sides but due to the amount of rain in Sydney before kick off, it was obviously slippery under foot. This always changes the dynamic of a game of football. In a quick summary, QLD handled the conditions better and NSW struggled to push their game plan. The only critique one could make of the Blues is that their scrambling defence was not what you expect from an origin squad.

Others disagree. Others are of the opinion that the entire state should be crucified. The Sydney media have run a few opinion pieces that reflect this aggressive approach. Apparently, Brett Kimmorley is first to be sacked, closely followed by Brett White and Matt Cooper. The articles also say that Kurt Gidley will be moving to halfback and Perry to the bench and blah blah blah blah. Anyone notice a trend here? Anyone see the real problem surfacing once again? Anyone?

United we must stand.

In another piece based on public opinion polls (always the best way to choose an origin squad), one newspaper announces the results, "70 per cent of the 4000 respondents called for Bellamy to be axed before Origin II…” You read that correctly. Some fans want the NSW coach sacked in the middle of a series!!! More frightening is the fact that 4000 people responded to this. Even more frightening is that apparently, 87% of the voters are NSW fans, which brings me to my point.

QLD fans voted as well and must be giggling to themselves. On every couch and recliner in every caravan all over the Sunshine State, there are cane toads laughing at the sinking ship that is NSW Rugby League. We lose one game of football to arguably the best league team ever assembled and the knives are out immediately. The amount of negative quotes published in the media over the past 2 days has been astonishing, even compared to the last 4 years.

I understand people might be fed up with losing, or that they would feel frustrated by the ease of Queensland’s victory, or even if they have nothing better to do than criticize... what I don’t understand is the inability to learn from mistakes. We have tried multiple combinations in the halves, we have tried every back rower in NSW, we have tried the two best hookers south of the tweed, and we have selected 20 year olds and 19 year olds in a vain hope that miracles might happen. Have we not learnt anything from the results?

The one lesson we need to learn, in an attempt to galvanise the state and hopefully restore some pride, is that we must stick together. This approach should be adopted at every level. If it is, then we would stop destroying any sense of unity within the team, we would get behind the men that came up short on the night and instil some belief in them to have another go and play without fear of losing.

Learning to Fly, is the hardest thing..

This will address the single biggest issue from Wednesday night’s loss. The Blues looked like they were expecting to lose. This fear comes from the culture created by selectors and fans. They have sacrificed any player whom they suddenly believe should never have been picked. Anyone see the irony here? The admission of mistakes has come thick and fast from selectors as they continue to disagree with themselves. This is what creates fear in the squad. Furthermore, the possibility that some issues arise from a disagreement between selectors and coach simply adds to the division.

Please don't sack anyone, please don't pull anyone aside and tell them it’s their last chance. This is not the way to win games... This does not inspire people. Please stop crying out for the hanging of coaches and players. Let us be honest and say that a) QLD were the better side on the night; b) we all hate QLD so let's use this to galvanise our support for NSW and c) focus more on players performing better as a unit, rather than pinning our hopes on individuals.
In perhaps the most painfully obvious example of why we cannot take seriously people who wish to play the blame game... there is one comment used as a conclusion in one of these articles. Perhaps it is one person’s perspective; it’s hard to tell, but either way... "In his third season of Origin coaching, Bellamy has always got exactly the squad he and his assistant coach Andrew Johns have wanted. Bellamy has had to accept much of the flak while Johns has escaped any of the harsh criticism"... Brilliant. They are now looking for anyone to blame and singling out perhaps NSW best ever player for the next attack.

We have a long way to go, obviously. Not only are we blaming all and sundry for another heartbreaking origin loss, but we continue to look for more people to blame. Why? Is there anything productive about this? As fans, should we not get behind our state as we do our clubs? Should we not ignore the petty media outlets that simply want to sell papers and don’t care who wins? Well ... some of us do care and some of us believe that supporting a football team means supporting them through thick and thin.

Paully's Picks - Round 12

St George Illawarra v Parramatta

A big test for Daniel Mortimer and Kris Keating. These two young halves have relied heavily on Jarryd Hayne to be the focal point in attack this year but, up against the best defence in the competition, cannot do the same again here. Mortimer and Keating must produce if the Eels are going to be any threat not only to the Dragons on Friday night, but to the 2010 Premiership.

There are some big boys in this match - some tough characters all over the park and I smell the continuation of a feud going back many years. More recent matches have been drama packed and super entertaining and this match will be no different. Up front it will be Weyman v Moi Moi and out wide, in a matchup I can’t wait to see, it will be two outside backs in a battle to see who is the angriest. Timana Tahu v Beau Scott. Plenty of stars all over the park but Parramatta's shine brighter at Jubilee Oval and win a close one.

Man of the Match Prediction: Nathan Hindmarsh
Tip: Parramatta 20-18
Result: Dragons 30-0
Man of the Match: Darius Boyd
Snap Review:
The style of play used by the Dragons really does lend itself to one person consistently receiving kudos for his performance. Boyd is currently ine the lead for Dally M player of the year. If he wins, can anyone honestly say he is the best player in the NRL? Of course not. This is no attack on Boyd or the Dragons but common sense may not prevail. Point being that the Dragons once again played brilliantly as a team - whilst the Eels were missing Hindmarsh and were never going to win without him.

Wests v NZ Warriors

Is it too early for Wade McKinnon to share the Warriors secrets with his new club? Of course not. The bigger question is which Tigers team will turn up in this one? If you can answer this then you should do my gambling for me as well. The Warriors have some big wins under their belt, have won two in a row and are enjoying life after spending an entire month in their own beds. Seymour and Maloney are combining well in the halves and the rest of the team are following their lead. Unfortunately - it will only lead to trouble on Friday night in Western Sydney.

It might sound strange considering the talent on their roster, but Robert Lui is the most important piece of the puzzle for the home side this week. Since the loss of Tim Moltzen, the Wests Tigers have not been the same. Benji Marshall needs width to apply his trade and can only get this from a specialist half. Robert Lui is that specialist and is resuming combinations nicely with Marshall and Farah after his return from injury. Big game from Lui and his forwards; and this means they have the Warriors measure but only just.

Man of the Match Prediction: Robbie Farah
Tip: Tigers: 22-16
Result: Tigers 50-6
Man of the Match: Geoff Daniela
Snap Review:
Sorry to harp on the Man of the Match issue.... but the best player on the park in this match was obviously Robert Lui. Only through his performance were the Tigers outside backs able to find so much space. Great job by the Wests forwards also. The Warriors lost Maloney through the week and then halfback Brett Seymour at halftime during this match. They were never a chance after this. Great spectacle of ballwork from the home side.

Cronulla v Brisbane

The Broncos would not know themselves this week with only three players away for Origin. It must be a rare treat for coach Ivan Henjak and judging by this and the strength of their most recent performances, Brisbane will be confident against a team they blew off the park only 6 weeks ago. Cronulla, however, must be brimming with their own confidence after an impressive win against the Hayne-less Eels last week. This means it will be close.

Rain predicted means it will indeed be very close. The Broncos will be desperate for any win during the rep season and this desperation will lead to uncharacteristic errors. I'm tipping the Sharks damn it!! There is a lot to like about them in this matchup and a lot to like about playing at Shark Park with the cold and wet conditions suiting them just fine. Tim Smith shares some inside information with his Sharks teammates and we have an upset on our hands.

Man of the Match Prediction: Tim Smith

Tip: Cronulla 14-12
Result: Brisbane 20-4
Man of the Match: Sam Thaiday
Snap Review:
Fantastic effort by the Broncos, specifically Darren Lockyer who continues to show why he is the greatest player of our generation. Brisbane have obviously found their niche and that is to hit hard and use their speed on the edges. No lumbering forwards to get in the way and the Sharks could not keep up. It was close though, Cronulla could have easily mounted some pressure on the inexperienced Broncos players but they simply couldn't consolidate their first half advantages.

North Queensland v Manly

It has felt like an eternity, but the Cowboys are looking closer to full strength than we have seen in months. With Thurston, Payne and Bowen back together and an ever improving forward pack in front of them, the home side will be hoping to find form and cause an upset on Saturday night. Against the visiting Sea Eagles, it will be difficult. Manly are consistent, aggressive, disciplined and have won their last 4 away games. They never make it easy for the opposition and will no doubt target Thurston in the defensive line.

It will be close but we can smell an improved performance coming from the boys from Townsville. Moments like this are exactly the reason why Neil Henry resigned his post as assistant coach of the Queensland Origin side. Henry has been with his troops all week and will be desperate to get them back on track. They are currently sitting in 14th place on the ladder and this match will provide the launch pad they need. Willie Tonga and Willie Mason the standouts.

Man of the Match Prediction: Willie Tonga

Tip: North Queensland 24-22
Result: Manly 24-20
Man of the Match: Jonathan Thurston
Snap Review:
The fight that broke out in the Under 20's match between these two teams was a highlight. check out the clip here... see that kid beating the living daylights out of his much bigger opponent? Fantastic.
In 1st grade. Manly continue their imperssive performances of late and were too good for the slow starting Cowboys who are now tied with the Sharks and Bulldogs on the bottom of the ladder.

Melbourne v Canterbury

A rock solid defence up against a struggling attack. The Bulldogs will find the going especially difficult in this match and will need to be at their best, and hope for the opposition to have an off day, to come away from Melbourne with 2 points. The Storm's new creed to avoid playing conservative football in attack could lead to an embarrassing score line for the visitors, but it won't.

There is still a bit of pride left in the old Bulldogs jersey and this will be apparent in their defence on Sunday. Unfortunately they can only stay within reach of the Storm, but never quite grab them. Canterbury's attack will not have the potency required when they need it most… in the last 20 minutes. They keep it close but the speed and strength of the Storm squad is too much in the end. Jamal Idris continues his tour of facing the NRL's great left centres - this time he squares off against the one and only, Greg Inglis. Awesome.

Man of the Match Prediction: Billy Slater

Tip: Melbourne 22-12
Result: Melbourne 23-12
Man of the Match: Cooper Cronk
Snap Review:
Brett Finch you diabolic!! If it weren't for the kind-heartedness of one B. Finch - I would have finally picked the score in a game of footy this year. This is important, not because of betting reasons, but simply because my tipping form is worse than I could have done by flipping a coin for each match. I suck. So it would have been nice to get something right. Finch had to go and mess things up by kicking a field goal for charity. How could he be so inconsiderate? In other news the dogs of war are no more.

South Sydney v Penrith

Tantalising matchups right across the park here and along with Friday Night's blockbuster from Kogarah Oval, this is the match of the round. Some very, very powerful forwards facing each other and the resulting collisions could be violent and will be supremely entertaining. Luke Walsh will need to conjure up more than just a bombing raid against a South Sydney team with a reliable back three and the ability to pile points on quickly. We think he will.

The Panthers ooze class this year and with a fresh Michael Jennings and a future rep star in Kevin Kingston, they will have too much firepower for the Rabbitohs. The Panthers leader, Petero Civoniceva, is backing up from a big workload from Wednesday night, but this is a man who could play 3 origins in one day and still be asking for more work. Petero will be the inspiration that carries Penrith over the line in a high scoring affair with perhaps one or two heated exchanges. Isaac Luke v Kingston a highlight.

Man of the Match Prediction: Luke Walsh

Tip: Panthers 28-22
Result: South Sydney 42-22
Man of the Match: Dave Taylor
Snap Review:
I love it how commentators in Rugby League add a little something to a players name. Not every player, just the interesting ones have their names changed during the call. This does not count for nicknames... just an addidtion to their name, or a slight change that singles them out e.g.:

• Andrew Johns was always called "Andrew". No other player in recent memory was known by their first name only.
• Dave Taylor is always referred to as 'Big Dave Taylor'.
• Daniel Mortimor is ALWAYS called, "Young Mortimer". Trust me this is true.

I love this.
Souths were rock solid here and can hopefully make the semis - it would be great for Rugby League.

Gold Coast v Eastern Suburbs

Coming into this match, both clubs come off big losses and will not have played footy for more than two weeks. Combined with the return of Mitchell Pearce for the visiting Roosters, this means we are in for a bottler. Neither team will get blown off the park here as both will be well prepared and eager to improve. Looking at the Titans roster, we are quickly reminded of why they sit 3rd on the ladder and why they are favourites.

Scott Prince will have his best game of the season and Greg Bird will be desperate to atone for some indifferent form of late. Keep an eye on these two in the final quarter of this match, they will turn the screws on the Roosters and bring home the 2 points for their club. Some big hitting expected from young firebrand Jared Warea-Hargreaves and at least 3 dropped balls expected from Mark Minichiello. I wish you could bet on that statistic.

Man of the Match Prediction: Nathan Friend
Tip: Gold Coast 30-20
Result: Roosters 30-16
Man of the Match: Mitchell Pearce
Snap Review:
Unfortunately no minute by minute Monday night this week. We will be back next week for the Rabbitohs v Cowboys clash.
The Roosters will upset a few teams this season. This result should act as a wake up call for the Titans whose defence was ordinary and probably would have been better without the week off. The Roosters played well though and are dangerous when they play this kind of disciplined football. Discussions will now begin about another change to the NSW origin team after Pearce looked so good here.

  

See our "Minute by Minute Monday Night" blog - delivered in 'retro' form on Tuesday. For live updates go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/

NSW v Qld - Origin 1 2010 Preview

With all the talk of 'square ups' and fights and cheap shots..., the rivalry has once again continued along its wonderful path of frenzied anticipation. All the talk in the world won't matter at kick off. As Origin always does, tonight's version will deliver something that none of us have predicted or expected. There will be a moment, as there always is, that will simply amaze us all. The rain in Sydney will add to the spectacle as the best of any code in the country square off against each other at ANZ stadium tonight.


As far as predictions go, I've never tipped Queensland and I never will. Simply can't. Having said that it is impossible to ignore the supreme talent on show in Maroon jerseys tonight. Jonathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer have been the difference in the past 4 series and will probably be again tonight. Lockyer's kicking game is still the best in the land and will have NSW fighting out of their own end for an eternity. The pressure will mount and eventually show on the scoreboard. To counter act this, the Blues resolve will definitely be stronger this year compared to the meek surrenderings of the past, and in the end class will prevail.

Man of the Match Prediction: Sam Thaiday
Tip: NSW 18-12
Result: QLD 28-24
Man of the Match: JT
Snap Review:
Jonathan Thurston and Darren Lockyer. Very simple.
The Blues simply cannot match the basic game plan and could never get out of their own end long enough to sustain pressure on the greatest QLD side ever assembled.