Paully's Picks - Close the Gap Round, 2014.

A wonderful NRL initiative and the most inspiring event on the NRL calendar, Close the Gap Round not only highlights the issue around life expectancy rates amongst Indigenous Australians, but helps create cultural awareness. This weekend's purpose is best summed up by a quote from a proud member of the Dunghutti people.

Golden Boot Winner, Clive Churchill Medallist, Member of the Indigenous All Stars and NRL Premiership Winner, Greg Inglis talks to the Sydney Morning Herald about Close the Gap round, “By the time I leave this earth I want to see a big change in indigenous health and the communities around Australia”…”It is vitally important to raise awareness and truly understand what close the gap is”

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Brisbane Broncos

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wangal people, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Seems like everyone has an opinion about Souths lately, don’t they? Apparently they are predictable, apparently this is their best chance win the competition in recent years. Blah blah blah. The ‘pride of the league’ is certainly playing some bloody good footy and that’s enough for me, for now. They’ve won 4 straight and have looked good doing it. In fact, they’ve looked a little scary since the bye week and young Luke Keary looks to have changed things on his own.

This kid wouldn’t stop barking at the Sea Eagles last week. He basically sledged Jamie Lyon for 80 minutes and by gum, it worked. That kind of bastardry will take them a long way and this week, at ANZ Stadium on Thursday night, it will get them past the Broncos. Brisbane have bounced back from some internal rumblings, it seems, and were good enough to trounce the ‘Dogs last week but it may not be enough here. Keary the standout again.

My tip: Rabbitohs 24-14

 

Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wangal people, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Plenty of talk about the eels replicating their famous 2009 run into the grand final whilst across the way, their most hated rivals might be replicating something a bit less memorable and a lot more frustrating for ‘Dogs fans. After winning 7 in a row at one point this year, holding the best defensive record in the comp and sitting atop the ladder, Canterbury have taken quite the fall and are now being shat upon from a very great height. Tough times in Belmore.

Can they turn it around? Can they lift for the most intense rivalry in the NRL? It seems a mountain to climb and you can guess why. Jarryd Hayne is enjoying himself. He was too good for the greatest origin team ever assembled and more recently he’s torn apart Titans, Sharks and Raiders in quick succession. Not exactly the NRL’s elite, but really, it’s like a backyard game of footy for the big fella and he is having a ball. Not even the possible return of Tony Williams to the halves for Canterbury will get them out of trouble here.

My tip: Parramatta 20-14

 

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Ngunnawal and Ngambri Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Saturday afternoon in the nation’s capital and this one has plenty of history – you know the drill. Saints have not won in Canberra since the Menzies Pri-Ministership, they’ve not beaten Canberra since before the GST existed and somehow, some way, they are favourites here. The only possible reason could be that the bookies pay no attention to history, or, that they’ve actually watched a Raiders game this year.

The poor Raiders. 1 win in their past 11 weeks and owners of the worst defensive record in the comp, they can only hope that Anthony Milford sees plenty of ball here. The Dragons, judging by their performance in a big match at home last week, could well oblige the Canberra pivot. They gave up possession at a frightening rate last week and if former Raiders Josh Dugan and Joel Thompson can’t rally the troops here, Saints are done for.

My tip: Canberra 21-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Wurundjeri People of the Kulin Nation, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Saturday evening from south of the border as Cronulla head to AAMI Park to face an un-backable favourite. Good lord, the odds are long for the Sharks here as we all pray for a quick and painless end to 2014 for Paul Gallen and his crew. Speaking of Gallen, he is named to return from injury in this match and let’s hope he does.  The entertainment value of the Sharks skipper sledging his way through 80 minutes against origin rivals Smith, Slater and Cronk will be off the charts.

Speaking of entertainment, if Melbourne are serious about this one (and of course, history has shown that they are hardly ever serious after losing a match at the death), the score could be anything. Look for big games from the Storm forwards as they set the platform early. Ryan Hoffman and Kevin Proctor in particular will enjoy running at young Fa’amanu Brown and late in the second half, things could get ugly for the visitors.

My tip: Melbourne 30-6

 

Wests Tigers v Sydney Roosters

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Cadigal and Wangal peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Whatever is happening at Concord Oval this week, it won’t be enough to set things right for the embattled Tigers. A Mick Potter magic show? A Robbie Farah bonding session? Skills work? Fitness training? You just can’t see a world where the Tigers can bounce back from losing by 60 in Townsville last weekend to be ready to face the defending premiers on Saturday night. Even the ‘8^th wonder of the world’ that is Leichhardt Oval won’t get them out of trouble here.

But, somehow, you know they will try their hardest. The Tigers might be completely out-gunned at nearly every position, but you get the feeling that the players will stick together as they have done over the past few horrific weeks. If the chooks give half a stuff, they will have a field day. Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney would have noticed already that Cory Paterson and Chris Lawrence can’t keep up with Michael Jennings and SKD. And if you thought the Cowboys’ back rowers had a field day last week, watch Boyd Cordner and FPN unleash the beast here.

My tip: Roosters 32-10

 

Newcastle Knights v New Zealand Warriors

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Awabakal and Worimi Peoples, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

Not again! Surely! If the Newcastle Knights somehow pull off another miracle at Hunter Stadium this weekend, I’ll pub crawl from Sydney to Newcastle for old boys’ day. For the 3 of you reading this – you’re welcome to join me. The Knights upset the reigning premiers a few games back after a week of turmoil and then, against Melbourne last week, scored two tries in the final moments to cause another unbelievable upset.

Speaking of upset, we won’t mention that Newcastle were on the right end of a 7-0 2^nd half penalty count against Melbourne but we digress. This week, they host the Warriors on Sunday afternoon and are, again, outsiders. With the visitors boasting the return of Shaun Johnson this week and the fact that they are up to their eyeballs in a race for a home semi-final, they’ll be too good here. NZ get off to a good start and hold on.

My tip: Warriors 23-16

 

Gold Coast Titans v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Yugambeh People, and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

And so the Neil Henry era begins for the Titans and this bloke has a CV to die for. The architect of Queensland’s Origin attack; the architect of the Titans success earlier this year, pre injury debacle; the architect of the Cowboys’ run to the semi-finals over the past two years, before diabolical officiating destroyed his career in Townsville. Now, Henry gets his shot to audition for another coaching role and his first test is a tough one.

A challenge to get his crew ready for a very angry Manly team… And they will be angry. The Eagles were effectively pushed around by Souths last week. Their forward pack looked slow and small and completely over-powered and if they are to get back to the winners circle on Sunday afternoon in Robina, it’s their pack who will have to step up. They will. Especially with DCE and Kieran Foran yelling at them for 80 minutes. Manly bounce back.

My tip: Sea Eagles 24-14

 

Penrith Panthers v North Queensland Cowboys

We acknowledge that this match is being held on the traditional lands of The Mulgoa Tribe of the Darug People and pay our respect to elders both past and present.

A beauty to finish ‘Close the Gap’ round on Monday night as the Panthers host the resurgent Cowboys. North Queensland have won 4 on the trot, including 2 away wins and now travel to Sydney’s west to face a Penrith team with a bunch of superstars sitting on the sidelines. The bookies can’t split them. The visitors forward pack looks fantastic on paper and played like it last week, but on the road this week, it’s a big test.

Look for another huge game from Panthers hooker and former Cowboy James Segeyaro as he continues to ignite the home side; and this will get them home. Yes, I’m tipping against a team that won by 60 last week but more importantly, this is your match of the round. A classic from the foot of the mountains as Johnathan Thurston faces Jamie Soward and the Cowboys monster back row of Jason Taumalolo, Tariq Sims and Glenn Hall take on the surprise pack of Isaah Yeo and Adam Docker.

My tip: Panthers 19-18

Paully's Picks - Round 22, 2014

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles

And suddenly it feels like September football is not just a dream – but a reality for excited footy fans across the eastern seaboard. The business end of the season is just around the corner and this game is the perfect way to get things rolling. Souths and Manly from the SCG kicks off round 22 of the premiership and its 1 v 2 on the ladder. You little beauty. The Bunnies on a 3 match winning streak and the mighty Eagles with 4 on the trot.

Manly have the edge here, for mine. They come into this match after a month where their defence has allowed an average of only 9 points against. Souths will have to be at their disciplined best to crack this mob enough times to win. They won’t. A great challenge for young centres Dylan Walker and Kirisome Auva’a against the best in the league, Jamie Lyon and Steve Matai, but this match is won with the Eagles defence and enough points via the hand of DCE.

My tip: Manly 20-14

 

Brisbane Broncos v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your Friday night double header continues with the Broncos back home for the night game and the visiting Bulldogs living on Struggle Street. The ‘Dogs have looked busted since their season’s best performance against the Storm a month ago. Their defence was grand final worthy on that wet and wild night in Melbourne but now, it seems they gave too much. They’ve lost 3 on the trot since then and their defence has given up an average of just under 30 points over that span.

Brisbane don’t look to be cruising along, either. Since playing their best game of the season a fortnight ago against the Warriors, Brisbane have lost 2 straight and only scored 3 tries total over that time. Rumour has it that Wayne Bennett is already putting calls through to Broncos management asking them to release certain players and re-sign others – how delightfully de-stabilising. Canterbury will take advantage.

My tip: Canterbury 26-14
 

Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm

Hunter Stadium hosts the Knights v Storm on Saturday at 5.30 and the season can’t end quickly enough for Newcastle. Poor bastards. Coach leaving, unsigned players with nowhere to go and now, the in-form Storm coming to town. Melbourne have won their past 3 and more importantly, their defence since the end of the Origin series has only allowed 8 points per game. Compared to pre origin, when they seemed to be struggling and allowed over 22 per game.

Point is, the smart coaches don’t seem to waste too much energy in April, do they – and now with Craig Bellamy and his crew showing their experience, they will be rolling right over the Knights in this one. Cooper Cronk is hitting his stride and the Storm forwards are fit and ready. Kurt Gidley returns to fullback for this match and he hates it. Cronk and Smith’s kicking game the difference and the poor Knights fans still have 4 home games to sit through.

My tip: Melbourne 24-4

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers

Saturday night from the tropical north as the Cowboys host the Tigers. The nastiness continues in Tiger town with the front office doing little to help their team. Nothing like a power struggle with your team on the cusp of the 8 to really rev them up for a semi-final run. The sheer stupidity of some administrators to choose winning a sword fight over winning a premiership continues to astound, but we move on to actual rugby league.

Last time they met, the Cowboys only scored 4 points, a try in the 28^th minute at Campbelltown in round 6. This time, bet on them crossing the line a few more times than that with the Tigers still in turmoil and the home side on a 3 match winning streak.  After exorcizing some demons with two away wins, the Cowboys will be playing their second game in a row at home. When they’ve had this kind of time not spent at airports and hotels, it spells danger for visitors.

My tip: North Queensland 30-12

 

Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders (thanks to my favourite Eels fans - @ritcho33)

A grudge match in the making since Ricky Stuart cut his rebuilding project short by 4 years and took the opportunity to return home to the nation’s capital. Tricky Ricky has worn a number of labels over his career in Rugby League as both player and coach - arrogant, intense, abrasive, champion and saviour. When I think about the great man, the word that springs to mind is ILLUSIONIST. I think about a man who in his chosen profession, in which judgement is purely based around wins and losses, has (since 2008) achieved a 23% win ratio.

10 wins in his last 43 games as coach!!! How can an individual, with such an abysmal record of performance, negotiate a 7 year $7million contract? He is the David Copperfield of the NRL. It was the refs, the players, the crowd, the weather, the bounce of the ball, the sun in their eyes, the board, Gorden Tallis’ fault……. I want Ricky Stuart negotiating my next employment contract. Illusionist. He can make a wooden spoon appear from thin air. He should have command of a stage in Vegas!!

The Eels, who have thrived under first year coach Brad Arthur, look to keep their semi-final hopes alive against Stuarts struggling Raiders. Based on recent form, they go in as deserved favourites. The Raiders will be looking to salvage some pride and avoid Stuart’s second consecutive last place finish. I see the heat, hostile crowd and biased referee assist the Eels in toppling the Raiders in their Darwin “home game”.

Ritcho’s tip: Parramatta 34-16

 

New Zealand Warriors v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

The poor Sharks, blah blah blah, and to make matter worse, the rugby league punting community is talking about how the Warriors have not beaten Cronulla in their last 5 games. Well, what a perfect way to ensure New Zealand turn up to this match at Mt Smart Stadium on Sunday afternoon, very much aware of this. Not to mention how much they’ve improved since last time they met Cronulla; the round 5 debacle that ended Matt Elliott’s career. It all points to a carve-up in Auckland.

Shaun Johnson still out with injury and the Sharks welcome back Paul Gallen, but with Luke Lewis and Wade Graham missing for the visitors, they simply won’t be tough enough to handle the home side. Andrew Fifita continues to impress after returning but the highlight here will be Warriors bench. Mateo, Matulino and big Sam Rapira will be unstoppable when they get on the field. Not to mention Jason ‘boogie’ Bukuya primed for a big match against his old club.

My tip: Warriors 28-12

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Penrith Panthers

A classic awaits us from Wollongong on Sunday afternoon and this will be your match of the round. Stay with me; The Panthers travel south to face the Dragons and even with the visitors sitting third on the ladder, they are pretty juicy outsiders here. Perhaps understandable considering their horrific injury toll – but the boys from the Blue Mountains were still good enough to beat the Bulldogs last week and with Jamie Soward playing against his old club, they’ll be right in this.

The Dragons have their season to play for here and at WIN Stadium with the beach breeze howling and half their team playing in front of their families, will be at their best. Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop were quite hard on themselves after last week’s loss to the defending premiers, so keep an eye out for them tearing it up from kick off. A great battle out wide with Josh Dugan against Jamal Idris but it will be Saints scraping home in a very tight one.

My tip: Dragons 19-18

 

Sydney Roosters v Gold Coast Titans

Round 22 comes to a close from Allianz Stadium as the Roosters host the Titans for Monday night footy and again, it seems everyone is talking about James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce. The Roosters do have the worst record in the NRL with repeat sets, but they also own spots 1 and 2 on the list of individual line-break assists. Guess which players?  Wait – don’t answer that, guess who also owns the 3^rd best attack in the comp? Yep, the Chooks.

Perhaps they are not playing as well as last year but ain’t it always the way with a premiership hangover? With the announcement of the retirement of their captain Anthony MInichiello this week, the home side will be primed for this match and that will do. The Gold Coast also made an announcement mid-week but its motivational properties are questionable. Daniel Mortimer may be sharing secrets here but it shouldn’t make a lick of difference.

My tip: Roosters 32-12

Paully's Picks - Round 21, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos

Friday night from the insular peninsular and this will be a beauty. The Broncos have a great record on the road this year and have a number of young footballers who’d be willing to test themselves against the best in the Eagles. Pity nobody in Brisbane feels the same way. The Broncos decision makers certainly think it’s time for change and with Anthony Griffin on his way out, it’s hard to imagine how he will motivate these youngsters against the league leaders.

Manly have won 5 from their past 6 under a cloud of player dissatisfaction with the board. Whatever. This weekend is supposed to be about superheroes, or something, so let’s talk about them. DCE and Kieran Foran will once again strike fear into the opposition defence and after they’ve had their say, Manly will walk off into the sunset after beating the bad guy (Justin Hodges), saving the world (the Northern Beaches) and winning the girl (Tom Waterhouse).

My tip: Manly 26-18

 

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Penrith Panthers

As the Panthers continue reeling from the news that Peter Wallace will miss the remainder of the season, coach Ivan Cleary has given up on the Matt Moylan five eighth experiment and promoted 22 year old Newcastle junior Will Smith to the number 6 jersey. Fingers crossed he plays like a superhero to get Penrith’s season back on track. I’m thinking one of the cats from Voltron. Voltron was awesome. I think we had the Blue one at my house.

Moving on. The Bulldogs come into this match as favourites but with the Panthers already having beaten them once this year and the ‘Dogs in some poor form of late, it’s hard to agree with the bookies. More so, if you watched the Bulldogs attack against North Queensland last week, it’s even harder to agree with them. Both teams needing a lift this Friday night after both losing 2 in a row. It’s not a time in the season when you want to be slumping.

My tip: Bulldogs 18-16 

 

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Parramatta Eels

Mad Monday time for the Sharks. Granted, they’ve won 3 of their past 5 including a few magnificent comebacks and amazing upsets, but its still Mad Monday time. So, as Todd Carney goes to Bali on scouting missions for this team’s end of season preparations, the rest of the Sharks get set to face the Eels on Saturday afternoon at Remondis Stadium. Parra are only slight favourites but certainly will be the hot tip considering Superman himself is wearing the blue and gold number 1 jersey.

The Eels are specials here. Even though their away record doesn’t inspire confidence, a dry track in the shire on Saturday should inspire plenty in Jarryd Hayne. The Eels forwards should give him a head start with Tim Mannah fully fit and the legendary Fui Fui Moi Moi playing his 200^th first grade match. So many great memories, thanks Foo. The Plane the difference again here after proving he is not a bird or an actual plane, just super.

My tip: Parramatta 26-16

 

North Queensland Cowboys v Gold Coast Titans

The Cowboys had lost Co-Captain Matt Scott and then Brent Tate after game 2 of the origin series; they were counted out as a premiership threat because of their paltry away record over a decade; Johnathan Thurston was exhausted and they had been destroyed by the struggling Newcastle Knights. Falling to pieces. But then -– somehow, after the bye, they beat South Sydney at home and went on to win 2 away games in a row?

That’s not really a question. Just some punctuation to explain the upwards inflection in my voice when yelling in disbelief at my computer. Congrats to Paul Green and Jonathan Thurston for believing and never giving up. Just like Iron Man, or something. This week, the Cowboys head home to face the 13^th place Gold Coast Titans and they won’t get a better chance to solidify a spot in the 8. Matt Scott has been named and the home side will be riding high.

My tip: North Queensland 30-12

 

Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra Dragons

Saturday night at Allianz Stadium and its Iron Man v Captain America. The Kids love it. What they don’t love is how the Roosters lost last week. Chooks fans cooked themselves up into an oily mess watching their heavily favoured, defending premier, star studded football team lose to the Knights in Newcastle and get shafted by the referees at the same time. Hilarious to the rest of us footy fans who support clubs with no cash, but not so funny for the tri colours.

This week, they head home to Moore Park to face a very dangerous Dragons team. Saints seem to be playing with a weight off their shoulders and some freedom in their attack. They’ve won four from their past 5 and the Gareth Widdop/Benji Marshall combination is shining. It will need to shine a hell of a lot brighter against James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce. Smart money says they will. Michael Jennings returns and the Chooks bounce back.

My tip: Roosters 28-18

 

Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

Sunday afternoon in the nation’s capital and you won’t hear me mention the weather, for once. The Raiders and the city of Canberra have bigger problems to deal with aside from the occasional bloody cold snap that lasts for 3 months, and can awaken the dead, and make you wish for the fires of hell to consume you, and make your ears fall off your face like shiny, frozen crystals and then watch them shatter on the icy ground. Canberra, feel the power.

Sorry, the Raiders have bigger problems. They’ve lost 6 from their past 7, they are getting dressed up like Hulk this weekend and more depressingly for the green machine, the Warriors are coming to town. Granted, New Zealand have lost two in a row but they are getting dressed up as an actual Warrior. So, this is a mismatch right from the start with the home side representing a doctor who can’t control his rage and the visitors turning up to GIO Stadium to get back into the top 8.

My tip: Warriors 32-22

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

Barlow Park in Cairns will host your Sunday afternoon match as the Newcastle Knights continue one of the most difficult seasons in their proud history. After an improbable victory last week, they take up the fight against the heavily backed Rabbitohs in the tropical north. Perhaps a tough week for Souths with a short back up from Monday night in Canberra to travel to Cairns, but that’s not their biggest concern.

If Sam Burgess, John Sutton and Greg Inglis are struggling with injury, the Knights could be in this up to their eyeballs. Burgess 50/50 they reckon, Sutton certainly out and GI – well, you never know. Keep your eye on the market in this one. If it’s just Sutto who’s missing, Souths will welcome the ever improving Luke Keary into the halves and they will be too good. Kurt Gidley returns for Newcastle to replace the injured Jarrod Mullen but the Bunnies defence gets them home.

My tip: Souths 26-10

 

Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm

Round 21 comes to a close with Monday Night Football from Campbelltown Stadium and what can the visiting Storm possibly expect to see here? It could be anything, really. The Tigers are limping to the finish line in 2014. Emotionally, physically and mentally. Or as Phil Gould would say, ‘Mently’. They can’t possibly be emotionally ready for this match; their captain won’t come to training and their board of directors won’t back their coach.

Physically, they are in even more strife with at least 7 first grade players out with injury. Lucky it’s only the likes of Cooper Cronk and Craig Bellamy coming to town – both very sensitive souls who don’t take winning very seriously and will take pity on the Tigers and not want to embarrass them too much. Melbourne by 50. Jokes – but this will be a test of character for everyone in the Tigers franchise; a greater challenge they will not face.

My tip: Melbourne 30-12