Paully's Picks - 'Rise for Alex' Round, 2014.

As we prepare for round 19 of the Premiership, Rise for Alex round is dedicated to Alex McKinnon and also reminds us of the sacrifice, the danger they face each week and the bravery of those we love to watch play the greatest game of all. Perhaps something the likes of ‘buzz’, ‘kenty’, ‘bulldog’ and the rest of those lads from a nameless ‘newspaper’ might want to remember. This is for Alex, and this is for them: Roosevelt said it best:

“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, and spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement; and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.”

 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Your Friday night double header has both games from Sydney. You beauty. Firstly, from Remondis Stadium in the Shire comes the Sharks and the Cowboys. Both teams under the pump here. Cronulla are struggling and …. Well… you know the story. The Cowboys are still searching for their first road victory of season 2014 and they won’t get a better chance to turn that horrific record around than on Friday night.

As always, any success they have will come from Jonathan Thurston. The poor bloke – he must be buggered by now. Carrying his club side and his state for a decade and then, when each season is over, representing his country and his People with pride. Fingers crossed his forwards aim up against what will be a brave Cronulla pack boasting the return of Andrew Fifita. If Jason Taumalolo and Tariq Sims his peak form, Cowboys win.

My tip: Cowboys 24-12
 

Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Feels like it’s been ages since Greg Inglis played for the bunnies. Well, not only is GI back for Friday night’s beauty from Pirtek stadium, he’ll be joined by Souths’ number 7 Adam Reynolds, reportedly back to full fitness. The visitors have been great to watch at times this year, with their defence being the standout again, but it will be their attack that will return to good form here. GI will threaten the Eels all over the park.

Speaking of threatening fullbacks, on the opposite side of the field to GI will be none other than his holiness Jarryd Hayne. ‘The Plane’ will have enjoyed the 10 days’ rest since origin 3 and his team will need him, desperately. Of the very few moments that Souths let Parra into the flow of this game, the home side will need to take advantage. They won’t. The Bunnies forwards control this match from start to finish and Souths win their first match in a month.

My tip: South Sydney 20-12

 

Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers

Saturday afternoon from Allianz Stadium. Broad daylight. 2^nd v 5^th on the ladder and some of the brightest stars in the NRL suiting up for your match of the round as the Panthers head to town to play the defending premiers. RTS set to return and Josh Mansour should prove his fitness. The magical footwork of Dean Whare against the toughness of Mitch Aubusson. Matt Moylan moves into the halves and will be able to hear James Maloney sledge him for 80 wonderful minutes.

You get the picture. But while the outside backs and the halves play tickles with each other, the real highlight here will be the premiership winning forward pack of the Roosters taking on another pack trying to steal their glory, as they have all year long. This time, they’ll come up winners for the first time in 4 weeks. SBW and Boyd Cordner get the wood only slightly over Elijah Taylor and Sika Manu on the edges. Tough bastards. Cracking game.

My tip: Roosters 19-18

Melbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders

Saturday night from AAMI Park and I haven’t tipped this contest right for about 5 years. The Raiders have won their last two at this ground and have beaten the storm 3 out of their last 4 encounters. What the hell?! This time, Melbourne are coming off a heartbreaking loss at home to the Bulldogs where they did everything but score the match winner. Their attack won’t find the going as tough here against Canberra’s league worst defence.

But who knows – with the mighty Shaun Fensom playing his 100^th game for the Green Machine, they may just be fired up enough to continue their good run in Victoria. I’m not game enough to tip them, but the 4 of you reading this (hi mum!) won’t be punting on me anyway. So, Cooper Cronk has one of those games where he controls everything from turning on the stadium lights to selling the hot dogs and leads the Storm back to the winners circle.

My tip: Melbourne 30-12

 

Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors

Saturday night from Suncorp. Read that again you magnificent people – the Broncos play their first Saturday night game in Brisbane since 1991 (not fact checked). So, get comfortable for the final leg of your triple header as the seemingly unstoppable Warriors travel across the Tasman to face the Broncos. And they are coming over on a 3 match winning streak and as underdogs. This could only be due to the injury cloud hanging over Sam Tomkins.

If Tomkins plays, you’d be forgiven for leaning towards a punt on the visitors, but the Broncos are due. They will be desperate to avoid a 4 match losing streak and considering the form of Ben Hunt and Corey Parker, they look like winners here. A great battle between a couple of oversized centres in Konrad Hurrell and Jack Reed but the return of Brisbane hooker Andrew McCullough will be the catalyst for the home side’s victory here.

My tip: Brisbane 30-20

 

Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans

A special day in Newcastle. Sunday afternoon footy comes from Hunter Stadium as the Knights pay tribute to the courage of Alex McKinnon and raise a few quid for his battle. The Titans are in town for the occasion and they won’t let anyone down. They’ve been able to salvage some pride in recent weeks as injuries and plenty of bad luck have destroyed their season. But the bookies don’t care – they are rank outsiders here.

Much more at stake than a game of footy, but the Knights turn up and play like a team on a 3 match winning streak, cos they are. Kurt Gidley is enjoying his return to the 7 jumper and Jarrod Mullen looks like he has more space every week. He might be due for one of those games where he appears to have the ball on a string. If he doesn’t, the Knights forwards will be knocking the stuffing out of Nate Myles and the Titans so it may not matter.

My tip: Newcastle 32-12

 

Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Your second Sunday match comes from Sydney Olympic Park as the Tigers host the Bulldogs. Tigers’ home game – but they are struggling. They’ve won only 1 from their last 4, a 1 point win over Canberra, and are giving up over 27 points a game in defence over the past 5 weeks. For those of you who love the numbers, here is one more – the home side has not beaten Canterbury in their last 5 attempts. You’re welcome.

The bookies know this. They have the Bulldogs set as very firm favourites and even without their star front rower in Aidan Tolman, their representative half in Josh Reynolds and their captain in Frank Pritchard, they should get home here. Expect a good shake from Robbie Farah and his crew as they try to get their season back on track, but the Bulldogs defence will be too good. Kasiano and Graham against Woods and Galloway an absolute highlight.

My tip: Bulldogs 21-14 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

The Dragons have somehow won 4 from their past 5 matches and what a pity former coach Steve Price isn’t around to enjoy the fruits of his efforts to bring Benji Marshall to the famous red V. Benji looks like a leader and is showing the characteristics that highlighted his last years at Wests. It helps that Saints have played their last 3 games at home and with the bye in between, have been sleeping in their own beds for a month.

A danger game for the Eagles. Saints will be well rested and as underdogs at Kogarah’s Jubilee Oval, they will be primed for a big one. Either way, this will be an absolute cracker and one of the best Monday night games we’ve seen for ages. Jorge Taufua and Anthony Watmough return for the visitors to add more exciting ingredients to the broth that is already spilling over with the thought of Josh Dugan up against Steve Matai.

My tip: Dragons 17-16

Paully's Picks - Round 18, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers

Friday night at Brooky where the Tigers have not won in more than a decade. The home side will be keen to respond to last week’s shock loss to Des Hasler and the Bulldogs. And they’ll be keen to do this with an aggression that will not only look like the Manly we’ve grown to hate, but will atone for the treatment they received from the ‘dogs pack last Friday night. Forwards never forget. This aggression should come from Brenton Lawrence first and Justin Horo second.

The Tigers may match this in the opening 20 minutes and when they do, you’ll have your match of the round. Just another sign that today’s NRL players continue to deliver whilst begging for more time off. Amazing. Speaking of amazing, Jamie Lyon plays his 250^th first grade game and league’s gentleman Dene Halatau plays his 200^th. Fantastic. The Tigers will bounce back well from last week’s disappointment at Leichhardt but it won’t be enough.

My tip: Manly 22-20

 

New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels

Keep an eye on all the news sources you can to see if Jarryd Hayne is on the plane to Auckland for this match – because that could be the difference between the Warriors winning by 50 or 15. Chris Sandow has been named at fullback for this match and if he plays there, you won’t want to miss the treatment he gets from Shaun Johnson, Chad Townsend and the Warriors kick chase. It might be hilarious, or it might put young Chrissy Sandow in hospital.

Who’s in charge of Parramatta’s travel insurance policy? Is there a section that prohibits putting yourself in harm’s way? In Manu Vatuvei’s way? In Konrad Hurrell’s way? Either way, the Warriors have only lost 2 matches since mid-April and the Eels have an abysmal defensive record away from Pirtek Stadium. That’ll do. Some big bodies up front in this match so tune in at 5.30pm Sydney time for a Saturday night smash up.

My tip: Warriors 36-12

 

Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Saturday evening from AAMI Park in Melbourne as the 3^rd place Bulldogs hit the road to face the 8^th place Storm. Plenty of blokes backing up from Wednesday night here so once again, stay tuned to the LU website or twitter page to keep updated. If everyone plays, this could be a beauty with the Storm still hoping to spark their season; and they usually do soon after rep season is finished. The Bulldogs will have plenty to say about this.

They’ll start with Tony Williams running very direct lines at Ben Roberts and Ben Hampton, no matter where Melbourne are hiding them in defence. Combine this with the visitors forwards aiming up, as they often do, to keep bending the line. Melbourne will win the battle for field position if they can control Canterbury’s monster pack, but Des Hasler has a history of beating Craig Bellamy coached teams and he can out think the wrestle better than most. Dogs win for the first time ever at AAMI.

My tip: Bulldogs 20-16

 

Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders

If you thought the crowd at Cbus Super Stadium against the Storm was anaemic, have a crack at the Robina faithful turning up in their droves on Sunday afternoon for this one. Yes, ladies and gentleman, it’s the Raiders coming to town and they are on a 4 match losing streak; with the Titans winners of 1 from their past 7; and rain predicted. But don’t be fooled by the ever increasing pile of evidence to suggest this won’t be entertaining.

The Titans were good enough to beat South Sydney last week and with Daniel Mortimer playing his 3^rd game for the home side, cohesion might be improving. If so, you’ll see a rejuvenated Albert Kelly off the bench, a fired up forward pack and some very fast blokes out wide. David Mead and Kevin Gordon might finally stop begging for some footy while James Roberts is enjoying his longest ever stint in first grade. This kid is starting to live up to the billing.
My tip:  Titans 19-18

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Newcastle Knights

If you thought Sunday’s fixture card couldn’t get any better than the 12^th placed Titans hosting the 15^th placed Raiders, think again. Round two of this festival of footy has the 16^th placed Sharks up against the 14^th placed Knights. We cannot be in any doubt who is in charge of Rugby League now, can we? The broadcasters are so desperate to keep people away from games and tuning into their TVs, it’s becoming insulting.

Last week, the Sharks celebrated like a team who’d been through the wars, and by gum, they have. Here is a chance to reward their small army of supporters with a win at home for the first time since round 8 and notch up an improbable 3 game winning streak. The Knights are in a similar boat and fighting just as hard to stay afloat and it’s this gumption that will get them home. The Mullen/Gidley combination should be too good.

My tip: Newcastle 18-12

 

Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos

Round 18 comes to a close with Monday night football from Sportingbet Stadium and this should be a beauty. The Panthers are the talk of the town and are sitting atop the ladder. They’ve won 6 from their past 7 and have uncovered a few footballers headed for stardom. The Broncos, meanwhile, have become the road warriors of the NRL. They are undefeated in NSW this year and will have the added motivation of their unbelievable last start loss to the Sharks. They’ll be ready.

A huge loss for the home side with Peter Wallace out injured and the Panthers’ attack will suffer. They’ve benefited from his leadership and kick chase so now, they’ll be hoping the spark provided by his replacement in the halves, Tyrone Peachey, will be enough. It won’t. I’ll go the upset here and back the Broncos to enjoy the 17 days’ rest between matches, plus the 5 days’ rest for their origin stars. Ben Hunt back to his best.

My tip: Brisbane 22-16

Paully's Picks - State of Origin 3, 2014.

Queensland v New South Wales

In the wash up of game 2, we heard from the talking heads that QLD were gracious in defeat and should hold their heads up high. Garbage. These blokes are absolutely filthy about the Sam Thaiday ‘try’ and Aaron Woods’ phantom touch. Queenslanders face the media with class and composure but if you look and listen a bit harder, you’ll see them talk subtly about the refereeing and fall back comfortably into feeling hard done by.

NSW, by contrast, would say that we are still not even, by any stretch of the imagination. We still owe them one or two bits of bad luck. The Inglis knock-on ‘try’? You guessed it. The Justin Hodges obstruction ‘try’? You got it. Brad Fittler’s pass to Tim Brasher in game 2 of the 1995 series called back for being forward? We won’t forget. Brasher’s try would have won that game and tied this famous series. I don’t sound jaded, do I?

To digress, history is just that, history. On Wednesday night we will see more history being made as New South Wales hold up the Shield for the first time in looong tiiiime… This will bring Goosebumps to all Blues’ fans who have been hard done by in reality, as opposed to a fantasy wrong-doing from 100 years ago. Rejoice, my friends, as Paul Gallen hoists up the spoils of victory for himself, his team, an entire state and for all those who could not do it before him for 8 horrible years.

The 80 minutes preceding this moment is probably what I should be talking about, so here goes. Prepare for 50,000 cane toads to pretend they want revenge. To pretend they are the good guys and to start drinking from 10am. If you thought game 2 had some niggle, keep a close eye on the ruck in this match as Queensland show their true sporting colours and do everything they can to turn this match into a street fight, before throwing the ball to Jonathan Thurston and begging him to flourish.

New South Wales, conversely, will win the forward battle as they have done in games 1 and 2, and then use a fired up Boyd Cordner and origin hero Ryan Hoffman to target the QLD halves. With a more expansive game being predicted by many pundits, we may even see the ball spread further to Josh Morris and Josh Dugan, if we’re lucky. Their battles with Greg Inglis and Justin Hodges will be a highlight.

So, sit back and enjoy this celebration of the greatest sporting event in Australia but be prepared for the grind to take over again. Another defensive struggle could take place but the first team to give an inch or make a mistake will pay for it dearly. The Blues’ spine will look more cohesive, now that they’ve had 3 camps together, but it may not be enough to overcome a very angry and very ruthless home team. Fingers crossed they shake hands afterwards.

My tip: The shield comes home

Man of the Match tip: Ryan Hoffman