Paully's Picks - Round 17, 2014

Canterbury Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Friday night footy from ANZ Stadium to kick off round 17 of the premiership and what a beauty this would have been. Rather, we’ll see an undermanned Bulldogs outfit defend bravely for as long as they can but ultimately, won’t have enough points in them to trouble the competition leaders. The dangers of playing mid-season rep footy, I guess – but no doubt you’ve read plenty about this topic of late so let’s get past it, people.

Michael Ennis has been named at halfback so it’s not gonna be pretty, but it won’t be a blow out. The ‘Dogs are battling their way through the rep season and like many good teams before them, are learning how to use their depth. Manly, meanwhile, have grown accustomed to it and will be on another mission to put the sword to Des Hasler’s team. Keep an eye on Kris Inu facing Steve Matai. They’ve had some battles in the past – none better than the 2011 GF and this could be another one.

My tip: Manly 22-12
 

St George Illawarra Dragons v North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday night in Kogarah. The visiting Cowboys have not won a game away from 1300Smiles Stadium all year and the bookies think they are absolutely no chance again here. The visitors have some decent depth, these days. Michael Morgan subs in well for JT and their forwards don’t look completely horrible without Matt Scott and James Tamou, but you just can’t bet on them against a rejuvenated Dragons outfit.

Benji Marshall will never be the player from those highlights packages they keep showing, but he is most definitely back from the ugly, horrible and stinky caper that was his Rugby Union career. Benji is creating formidable combinations with Mitch Rein and Gareth Widdop, the two most important people in the Dragons’’ playbook and this is great news for the Jubilee Avenue faithful. Saints win their 3^rd in a row and go into the bye with a fire back in the belly.

My tip: Dragons 24-12

 

Sydney Roosters v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Tough times again in the Shire. In fact, the stink just seems to get stinkier from Caringbah to Como to Kurnell and beyond. With the cloud of PED’s hanging over them; their superstars’ contract torn up; their captain and coach not able to keep things in house and a wooden spoon in the mail, it cannot possibly get worse. Unless you have a game on Saturday night against the reigning premiers at their home ground, without your rep players. Good god.

The Sharks may have had their backs against the wall for what seems like forever, so they’d be used to the struggle, but it won’t make a lick of difference here. The chooks will be stinging from last week’s loss to Manly and will thrive on 8 days’ rest. It will be just a matter of time before the floodgates open in this match with James Maloney and Sonny Bill Williams the key destroyers. A tough start to James Shepherd’s coaching career but it can only get better for the Sharks, right?

My tip: Roosters 36-12

 

Wests Tigers v Penrith Panthers

Sunday afternoon from Leichhardt Oval – the sun will be shining, the crowd could be drinking and the home side will be underdogs. Sound familiar? Hell yes. The Tigers come into this match without their captain Robbie Farah and are heavy outsiders with the bookies. They host the 2^nd place Panthers who lost for the first time in months last week and will be keen to atone and even more keen to celebrate Brent Kite’s 300^th first grade appearance. They will be confident.

But many have been at this graveyard in Sydney’s inner west and if the visitors are not prepared for a blistering open 20 minutes from the likes of Keith Galloway and Martin Taupau, they’ll be chasing from the outset. Braith Anasta almost single handedly won the game for the Tigers last week with his defence and his right boot; and he will once again lead the young Tigers around the park for an unlikely victory. Wests pull an upset and beat the Panthers for the 8^th straight time.

My tip: Tigers 17-16

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Gold Coast Titans

The poor Titans get another game 48 hours out from origin – when nobody is really watching and nobody really wants to go out to the game on a Monday night. They’ve lost 6 in a row and now face the huge task of beating the Bunnies at a vacuous ANZ Stadium. They are $5.50 outsiders and the grim picture just paints itself. This is a mismatch. Souths might be missing GI and a couple of back rowers, but they have ample depth to cover them.

Michael Maguire has benched Issac Luke and for some reason; maybe he is bored. The Titans certainly are not, they’ll be desperate to get their season back on track and will give it a good shake. They also welcome back Paul Carter from a drink driving charge only 2 matches after the incident (some people have all the luck). It won’t be enough; but make sure you keep an eye out for Gold Coast’s James Roberts playing against his old teammates – should be interesting.

My tip: Souths 24-0

Paully's Picks - Round 16, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Sydney Roosters

Round 16 kicks off from Brookvale Oval on Friday night as the Roosters head north for a Grand Final replay. This is your match of the round. The chooks have lost only 1 game in their last 9 weeks and Manly are rolling along just as nicely, on top of the table and looking as dangerous as ever. They’ll miss Anthony Watmough, but have enough experience and agro to cover him and they will need to. The Roosters pack is a sight to behold.

With no rain forecast this week, the fortress surface should look better than we last saw and these two teams may actually score some points. But don’t bet on too many. Last time they met, in Round 4, the Roosters were in a dry spell and lost 8-0. This time round, they are firing and fresh and will re-visit their domination of the Eagles. The halves battle, the forwards battle, the strength and speed of the outside backs… this is how you build premiership calibre teams.

My tip: Roosters 18-16

Brisbane Broncos v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

So, the Broncos mid-season tryst around the world has ended and their return to Suncorp Stadium for Friday night footy came just in time. Your free-to-air broadcaster may have had to show Manly v Roosters on prime-time Brisbane TV, heaven forbid. That, or replays of Hey Hey its Saturday’s greatest hits. Speaking of which, the Broncos will be happy to get the band back together this week as they face the last placed Sharks.

Brisbane may not be at their best without Andrew McCullough controlling the middle, but if given any space against the struggling Cronulla outside backs, they will run riot. Ben Barba is edging closer each week and we may even see his best here. Similarly, Justin Hodges and Jack Reed should have little problems handling Jono Wright and company. The poor Sharks forwards simply can’t do everything, but they may score their first try in almost 5 hours of footy. Fingers crossed.

My tip: Brisbane 30-12
 

Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders

Good signs for the Tigers here. They come into this game after a week off and will be running onto the hallowed turf of Campbelltown Stadium with a spring in their step, their spine intact and almost at full strength. If they put the throttle down early and not wait for the Raiders to shoot themselves in the foot, this could be another disaster for Ricky Stuart and his downtrodden troops. The Raiders have won 1 from their past 6 matches and are hanging by a thread.

So, Saturday night from Sydney’s west may only be a 2 hour drive for the visitors, but it will feel a lot longer on the way home. Robbie Farah’s hangover should be completely gone so he, Aaron Woods and Keith Galloway will set the tone early. Luke Brooks and James Tedesco will continue where they left off earlier in the season and carve up the Raiders’ league worst defence. Tigers by plenty as Canberra are simply too slow to keep up.

My tip: West 32-12

 

North Queensland Cowboys v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Back to Townsville for Jonathan Thurston and the Cowboys and they’ll all breathe a sigh of relief. Since round 4 this season, North Queensland have won all their home games and lost all away. It’s consistently inconsistent and if they are to continue this consistent incontinency then they’ll be winners this Saturday night at 1300Smiles Stadium against the visiting Bunnies. No doubt Souths will have something to say about this.

The Rabbitohs are rolling. They’ve lost only twice in the past 11 weeks and are owners of the NRL’s best defence and second best attack, statistically speaking. This is amazing. Especially considering how many jokes this ‘column’ has made about their reliance upon Greg Inglis to be the only creative force with ball in hand. Lucky nobody is reading this, then I’d really be embarrassed. If anyone is reading this – I tipped 6 from 6 last week so there.

My tip: South Sydney 21-14

 

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers

If footy fans are salivating at the thought of a grand final replay from Brookvale on Friday night, then they’ll almost be frothing at the bit in anticipation of this one. Ivan Cleary heads back to where it all began for his coaching career and he brings a few ex-warriors with him. Elijah Taylor, Lewis Brown and Jeremy Latimore will enjoy the trip back to Auckland and will relish the opportunity to face their former teammates.

So will the Warriors. They’ve only lost 2 games in the past 8 weeks and will be primed to face the league leaders here. Sunday afternoon footy does not get much better than this and with a big crowd expected and the home side surprising favourites, it will be a beauty. The Panthers are coming off a nice break here and will be perfectly prepared to add to their current 5 match winning streak. They’ll start strong and finish stronger.

My tip: Penrith 22-18

 

Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights

Sunday afternoon from Pirtek Stadium where the mighty Eels are undefeated this year. A huge ask for the visiting Knights as they bring a 3 and 11 record with them to Sydney and are locked in as very heavy outsiders. They’ll be focussing all their energy on stopping Jarryd Hayne, in the hopes of keeping this one close but it will be the Eels forwards they really have to worry about. New rake Isaac De Gois will be more familiar with his crew and they will thrive.

Parra wins the ruck and dominates field position – and then there’ll be plenty of opportunities for Chris Sandow to have some fun. As long as he doesn’t accuse any one of match fixing, he’ll have a ball. The Eels should start fast, as they do at home, and then hold on for another win out west. But look for an improved performance from the Knights after a confidence boosting win last week with Kurt Gidley in his preferred position at halfback. Won’t be enough though.

My tip: Parramatta 30-20

 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm

Monday night footy has the Storm visiting the Dragons from a very cold and windy Wollongong. How do we know it’s gonna be cold and windy at WIN Stadium, 5 days out from game day? We just know. We also know that Benji Marshall is now 5 games into his return to the greatest game of all and if we are to believe the experts, who said it would take Benji ‘6 or 7 weeks’ to find his rhythm, then we are in for a treat here.

Melbourne’s defence has not been great in 2014 and even with a vastly improved showing from their halves in recent times, they may struggle on both sides of the ball here. Benji could be set for a good one but Gareth Widdop will no doubt deliver. He gets Saints off on the right foot and even with Trent Merrin out injured, the Dragons forwards continue their fight for respect. Dan Hunt slated to return and Saints get revenge for that round 6 farce.

My tip: Dragons 20-18

Paully's Picks - Round 15, 2014

Canberra Raiders v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

If everyone has calmed down… if you’ve come down… if you’ve settled down…. Then join me on a trip down to the nation’s capital for Friday night footy. Raiders fans are notorious for their long-standing rage towards the NRL and broadcasters for not showing enough free-to-air Canberra games. Well, Greenhouse, here is your chance. You sit 14^th on the ladder and are proud owners of the worst defence in the NRL.

What could possibly go wrong with ratings if we show the Raiders on Friday night footy? Nothing, baby. This’ll be a beauty. Canberra are celebrating the 20 year anniversary of their 1994 grand final victory over the Bulldogs and in attendance on this night will be some of the game’s greatest ever, as well as your humble previewer. So, I’ve packed 72 jackets and a beanie to see the Bulldogs return to the winners’ circle, but only if their halves have anything left in the tank.

My tip: Bulldogs 20-12

New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos

Saturday night in Auckland as round15 continues from across the Tasman and the Broncos continue to power through the rep season. They’ve won 4 straight and sit in 6^th place. Their defence over the past month has been outstanding. Credit coach Anthony Griffin for turning this famous franchise around and allowing kids like Ben Hunt the chance to improve. He surely has. Griffin has also shown remarkable patience with Ben Hannant and Ben Barba and it seems they are about to reward him.

The Warriors also have a coach to thank. Matt Elliott was fired a while back and this team is 4 and 2 under Andrew McFadden. They will be ready to fire here, with no players backing up from origin 2 and a  bunch of players feeling more comfortable in their skin and comfortable in their positions. None more than Sam Tomkins at fullback. Shaun Johnson will combine well with the Englishman and the Warriors win.

My tip: Warriors 18-16

 

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Saturday night in the Shire and this place will still be buzzing. The Sharks’ favourite son and captain, Paul Gallen will come home a hero whether he takes the field or not. Speaking of taking the field, the bye week certainly has done more for the Sharks than any bye week has done in the history of rugby league. Possibly. Point is, Todd Carney, Jeff Robson, Luke Lewis, all returning for the home side and they could finally be capable of something special here.

Manly won’t care who is wearing the famous skye blue and black. They sit second on the ladder and have all the experience in the world to handle a trip this far south. It will be a lovely, crisp and celebratory evening at Remondis but after the origin love, comes the battle of the beaches. Cronulla may finally look like a first grade team here, but it simply won’t be enough. Kieran Foran and the Manly forwards too good. They win the ground game and finish stronger.

My tip: Manly 22-20

 

Melbourne Storm v Parramatta Eels

AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon has the Eels bringing their horrendous away record to Melbourne to face the Storm. If Jarryd Hayne is rested here, after another herculean effort on Wednesday night, possibly the greatest night of my life, then Parra are next to no chance. Melbourne have not been fantastic at home this year and god knows they don’t strike fear into opponents the way they used to, but Craig Bellamy has begun to trust his backups.

This should be enough to get them home against a very good Parra side. Their forwards will be willing via the likes of Pauli Pauli and the Paulo boys. In fact, this crew of big men with trouble the Storm plenty in this one, but the experience of the home side will get them home. Ben Roberts will enjoy playing against his old teammates whilst they will not enjoy playing in 11 degree temperatures. Roberts v Chris Sandow could send twitter into a meltdown.

My tip: Melbourne 23-22

Gold Coast Titans v St George Illawarra Dragons

Stuck at the wrong end of the ladder and the wrong end of good form, these two clubs are struggling. 12^th and 13^th on the ladder, respectively. They’ve won only one game of football over the past 12 combined weeks and the grind of the NRL is certainly to blame for both teams. Their disastrous fall from grace after sensational beginnings this year can only be due to injury, exhaustion and a weakening of the most important positions on the field, the 7 and 6.

The Titans will start another brand new halves combo in Maurice Blair and the one and only Daniel Mortimer, whilst the Dragons are getting more comfortable with Benji and Englishman Gareth Widdop. The latter will lead the way in this one and after showing good signs against the Panthers last week, will be too good for the Titans. Fingers crossed that Greg Bird, Trent Merrin and Josh Dugan don’t miss the bus to this match and pass the breath test. Bless them.

My tip: Dragons 24-18

Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys

With no less than 7 players asked to back up from origin in this one, we already have two who won’t make it. Brent Tate and Matt Scott have serious injuries keeping them sidelined and the Cowboys, again, could see their season slip away through a hat full of bad luck. Speaking of bad luck, ladies and gentleman, your Newcastle Knights. Once nearly unbeatable at home, the Novocastrians are now beatable everywhere. They’ve lost 7 in a row and are wooden spoon favourites.

Their biggest chance to turn the season around could be on Monday night against an understrength Cowboys. It will take a massive effort from the likes of Willie Mason and Jeremy Smith to play like they are young again. If they do and the home side win the battle of the forwards and win the ruck, Jarrod Mullen will show he hasn’t given up on the season just yet, unlike some Knights fullbacks who shall remain nameless. Newcastle find a way here.

My tip: Knights 18-16