Paully's Picks - State of Origin 2, 2014.

New South Wales v Queensland

Game 2. ANZ Stadium will be jam packed with 85,000 rabid rugby league fans and rightly so. There is no better event in the country, no bigger rivalry in any of our codes and no greater story than State of Origin. 100 games in the books and may there be 100 more. On Wednesday night, New South Wales have another opportunity to stop a 9 year horror run of losses to their most hated rival.

The Blues’ players spoke of the ‘dark places’ they went to in game 1, having to defend their line against a never-ending tidal wave of Maroon jerseys. This dark place is a realm often visited by blues fans, except without any actual physical exertion or excruciating injuries to play through, but nearly the same. So, get ready for another 80 minutes of the greatest footy you will ever see and whilst the pace will be the fast, the scoring will again be slow.

Qld will be confident. They lost their halfback after 10 minutes in the opener, had their captain on one leg for most of the second half and were missing Sam Thaiday. Still 2 tries a piece; Goal kicking the difference. Battered and bruised and in disarray? After one game? Please. This time, we’ll see their best. The best of Daly Cherry Evans – you just get the feeling he’s fine – the best of Matt Scott and the best of the frightening rest.

The Blues also believe. Even with a new right side in Josh Dugan and Will Hopoate and the huge pressure they’ll be under to produce the kind of defense that won the opener, NSW will come out of the blocks quickly and confidently with a dominant front line. But as with nearly every series we've seen, this will be decided in the last 15 mins and will be via the hands of their halves. Trent Hokinson and Josh Reynolds stand on the precipice of a place in Origin folklore.

If they can do it just a little better than future immortal, Jonathan Thurston, it will be party time. If so, let it fly NSW, LET.IT.FLY – and for god’s sake drink responsibly. Also, if you live in the Olympic Park precinct or close by, best prepare for a noisy evening, at least until 10pm when they kick everyone out of the brewery. The Blues have matured and will keep their composure in the final moments as history is made.

My tip: calling in sick on Thursday.

Man of the Match tip: Ryan Hoffman

Paully's Picks - Round 14, 2014

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers

Round 14. The second half of season 2014 kicks off from ANZ Stadium and time sure is flying. Speaking of flying, these two teams certainly are, with Souths continuing a recent era of success and the Tigers bouncing back from a nightmare 2013. They both sit on 16 competition points and even without superstars like Greg Inglis, Robbie Farah and Liam Fulton playing in this game, it will still be a beauty as tensions in the middle are sure to flare.

In their last meeting with Souths in round 3, the visitors forward pack was heralded as the crew that finally stood up to the Burgess Boys. This time, the likes of Galloway, Taupau and Blair better be ready for reprisals. Souths were essentially spanked in that match and they won’t let the same thing happen here. Sam Burgess, as he often does, will get the ball rolling early and even with the fatigue that may hit the Bunnies after a trip to Perth, they will have their revenge.

My tip: South Sydney 21-14

Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

The Mighty Panthers. Sitting on top of the table with an 8-4 record and the second best defence in the competition, this team has it all. A forward pack with the perfect balance of youth and experience, of size and skill and of brains and brawn; a representative halves combination with 340 games total experience and finally, a backline boasting the likes of… ready for this….  Dallin Watene-Zelezniak! Yes, I’m now president of the Panthers fan club. Deal with it.

Where does this leave the visiting Dragons for Saturdays nights encounter at Sportingbet Stadium? In deep doo doo. Saints may have climbed out of the pit of despair with last week’s win over Cronulla, but it may not be enough to get them past the home side who come in as $1.20 favourites. So, whilst the Widdop/Marshall combination still finds its feet, Penrith run right through the Dragons middle and end this one early and emphatically.

My tip: Penrith 30-14

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

The defending premiers have won 6 of their past 7 matches and are absolutely loving it. They have enough depth to cover the loss of a few origin stars and with their 7 and 6 staying in Bondi for the rep season, Chooks fans must be doing cartwheels. This week, they face the free-falling Knights. Newcastle have lost their past 6 matches and sit second-last on the ladder. In fact, the stats don’t do justice to how different these two clubs are, right now.

The Knights are cashless, ownerless and hopeless whilst the Roosters have it all; the money, the sponsors and the talent. Speaking of talent, you’ll see the Tri-Colours’ very best on show at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night as Mitchel Pearce and James Maloney guide their unstoppable forward pack around the park for an easy victory. The only controversy could come if Willie Mason tries to steal Sonny Bill’s wallet at halftime. Fingers crossed.

My tip: Roosters 30-12

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Parramatta Eels

It’s the height of rudeness, really. To forsake your most vocal, most passionate and most traditional fan base by booking this fixture 3 days before origin 2? Simply breathtaking stuff from the NRL. With Canterbury and Parramatta both in the middle of fantastic seasons and with the history that these clubs share, you could have 40,000 people minimum turn up to this game and now, to have it played without a handful of the biggest stars in the comp is just crazy.

As always, we digress. Damien Cook gets his chance to start for the Bulldogs at halfback this week and if anyone knows how to welcome a kid from Cronulla Beach to Belmore, it’s Bulldogs fans. The ‘Dogs will struggle in attack without their starting halves and admittedly, the same problem exists for Parra without Jarryd Hayne and Nathan Peats. So, strap in for a defensive struggle between two great Sydney clubs as they face each other for the 135^th time.

My tip: Canterbury 14-12

Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm

A tough period for both clubs. Whilst the Storm crawl through the rep season again, this time they won’t be getting Cooper Cronk back after it’s all over. Rather, as this season continues, they’ll most likely see the fading of an aura they’ve kept for a decade. The Titans are also on very shaky ground. They’ve lost their organiser, Aidan Sezer, for 3 months and now Albert Kelly looks to have been dumped from 1^st grade completely.

So, with all rep players out, the Titans’ season in upheaval, the match scheduled 48 hours from Origin 2 and the poorly supported Storm coming to town; get ready for CBUS Super Stadium in Robina to be rocking on Monday night. It’s almost the perfect storm to get the Rugby League juices really flowing. Heaven help us all. Speaking of heaven, watching this match could send you to the other place so either get on the sauce early, or have a little something on last try-scorer to keep you locked in.

My tip: Titans 16-14

Paully's Picks - Round 13, 2014

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Canterbury Bulldogs

A special night for Bulldogs coach Des Hasler. Finally, Dessie can play a game close to home. Finally, Dessie doesn’t have to drive from the northern beaches to Belmore to catch the team bus on time. A horrible run, really. Military Rd – Eastern Distributor - Airport tunnel, how does he do it every day? Hasler is a perfectionist, so he probably does it well and there is no chance he won’t be prepared for round 13’s opener on Friday night at Brookvale oval.

Its 1 v 3 on the ladder and the only issue that can take away from this beauty would be injuries. With DCE and Choc Watmough rumoured to be ready, we may not have to worry. The Bulldogs will miss Josh Morris desperately, but with 2 weeks rest, Canterbury will be barking right from kick off. Eagles props Brenton Lawrence and Josh Starling will need to show maturity beyond their years to stand up to the visitors pack, but it’s the Bulldogs bench forwards that will do the most damage here.

My tip: Canterbury 17-16 

Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys

No secret that the Cowboys are winless on the road this year. In fact, their remedy to this problem was to announce during the week that they are in the market for a private plane to help ease the suffering of interstate travel. They also announced that this is a 30 year plan. So until Josh Hannay and Paul Bowman’s grandchildren can improve this clubs away record, it’s up to Jonathan Thurston and his crew to march into Pirtek Stadium and perform a miracle.

The bookies don’t agree – they have the visitors as slight favourites but with the return of Jarryd Hayne and Parramatta’s record at home this year, it’s tough to tip against them. So, since I’m not in the business of making any tough decisions, let’s stick with Parra. Luke Kelly gets a shot at the hooker position for the home side, replacing Nathan Peats and whilst these are huge shoes to fill, Kelly and the Eels forwards should aim up against the Australian front rowers and win a close one.

My tip: Eels 20-14 

Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers

Saturday afternoon from Robina has the 2^nd place Panthers visiting the struggling Titans. When they last met in round 7 this year, things were very different with the Titans sitting on top of the table and looking like a team destined to upset the apple cart. Now, just over a month later, John Cartwright’s men have only won 1 match since and are losers of their last 3 while the Panthers are on a 3 match winning streak.

If you believe in momentum, well, Penrith will destroy the home side with their disciplined attack, ferocious defence and a couple of very hungry try-scoring weapons out wide. If you think the Titans have a little bit of dynamite left in the kit bag, and that the return of Greg Bird will light the fuse, then tip the home side and watch them play with that famous Titan pride. Peter Wallace and Jamie Soward too good for Albert Kelly and Maurice Blair, for mine. The halves win this one.

My tip: Penrith 24-14 

St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks

13 v 16 on the table, but it won’t matter. This famous local derby will still get the fires burning for Sharks and Dragons fans even though their collective seasons look to be a complete mess, at best. Cronulla coach Shane Flanagan has been replaced by the reluctant Peter Sharp whilst the Dragons face their second week of the Paul McGregor era. A tough season for the red V, after winning their first three matches but Wollongong might bring a spring back to their step.

McGregor’s childhood playground and the Steelers spiritual home ground, WIN Stadium may not be packed to the rafters for this bottom of the table clash, but it will surely mean a lot to ‘Mary’ and the Saints. No, that’s not a rock band; rather, they are my tip for Saturday night down south. The electric Nathan Gardner returns to first grade but that’s where the excitement ends for Cronulla. Their back-up halves simply won’t be creative enough.

My tip: Dragons 27-12 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors

The NRL’s annual trip to Perth’s NIB Stadium. As always, the Rabbitohs take their home game across the Nullarbor but this time, it’s an in-form Warriors team that will meet them. Both teams are winners of 4 from their past 5 and both teams are improving as the year progresses. Just what you want from a good side – don’t peak too soon. The Warriors certainly did not have to worry about this earlier in the season but with their coaching changes now settled, they look dangerous.

Souths will need to be at their defensive best to get away with this one, and they will be. They shut out the Sharks a fortnight ago and trounced the Dragons last week – whilst these opponents are not exactly striking fear into our hearts these days, Souths’ are looking good. Sam Burgess will get his team forward early and with this space comes a better kicking game from Adam Reynolds. The Bunnies grind out another one.

My tip: South Sydney 18-12 

Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers

Sunday afternoon football comes to you from Hunter Stadium, with the all-powerful Newcastle Knights now simply a shadow of their past glories. Darius Boyd’s 200^th first grade match could be a reason to celebrate, but intelligent Knights fans know that this mercenary of a footballer is not quite happy in the Hunter, and not quite giving his best. So, the search for inspiration continues for the home side and the odds are against them finding any.

The Tigers, in contrast, are getting closer to their full complement with more players getting off the physio’s table. James Tedesco came back from the brink of anonymity during the week and now, also returns from injury. If the visitors can find any of their early season form, they’ll run over the Knights in this one. These teams have a combined 1 win from their past 9 matches so we hope to see some desperation. The class of Robbie Farah and Luke Brooks make for another tough afternoon in Newcastle.

My tip: Wests 20-18 

Melbourne Storm v Sydney Roosters

The last two NRL Premiers meet at AAMI Park on Sunday afternoon and whilst the Storm will struggle to overcome the injuries to Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk, it’s their defence that will be tested here. The reigning premiers bring an arsenal of weapons and when they fire, it could get ugly for Melbourne. The home side will do everything they can to slow this match down to a grinding halt and hope that Ben Roberts and Tohu Harris can steer them around the park, but.. you know…

Always a difficult time of year for Craig Bellamy and his team – but this is downright nasty. The Roosters, if they care enough, should get out of the blocks quickly and once they get the glut of possession, will be too good here. Keep an eye on Jared Waerea-Hargreaves with a point to prove against a couple of New Zealand forwards picked ahead of him in the Anzac test this year. Sober props have a very long memory.

My tip: Roosters 24-10 

Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

Monday night football from the nation’s capital and finally, I get to talk about the weather. Nothing fills up a ‘column’ with boring, witless, pointless opinion better than the cold weather in Canberra. 7 degrees at kick off, that’s the prediction. Your pay-tv commentators making very shitty jokes about it – that’s another prediction. The Raiders starting a lot quicker than the Broncos and then fading late in the half, that’s my last prediction.

Can we put a multi on this? Moving on, the Broncos sit in 6^th position on the ladder and are winners of their last 3. They remain undefeated in NSW this year and since the ACT counts as one of ours, they’ll keep this record intact after the Raiders lose their direction and the Hunt/Hoffman combination causes trouble for Canberra’s league worst defence. Sam Thaiday returns from a very long hiatus to spark a big finish from the Broncos.

My tip: Brisbane 24-22