Paully's Picks - Round 13

St George Illawarra Dragons v Manly Sea Eagles 

Lucky Round 13 kicks off with the Dragons travelling up to Brooky under lights on Friday night. With a 7.30pm kick off, fans and players alike would want to leave home early to avoid the shambles that is Military Rd on a Friday arvo but rest assured - they will delay kick until Ben Hornby and his crew can make it. Well... maybe. The Sea Eagles have been known to do worse to visiting teams and this rivalry is no exception.

After nearly losing at home to the cellar dwellers of the competition, St George Illawarra will need to lift more than a few notches to have any chance in this match. Speaking of cellar dwellers, Manly had their own troubles at Penrith last week. They were beaten well but Brookvale Oval and an angry mob of locals will give them all the energy they need to outlast a disciplined but impotent Dragons attack.

My tip: Manly 20-6



Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys 

This is where critics of a Friday night double header will get their panties in a bunch; and it's hard to blame them. For Sydney viewers, you would no doubt have been treated to a beauty from Brookvale and before you've had a chance to catch your breath, the TV takes you to Skilled Park. An empty stadium, a struggling home team, delayed telecast, bloody commercials, and just when you think that’s bad enough, Ray Hadley gets the call. 

So, for those of you who haven't succumbed to live updates on twitter or via leagueunlimited.com, this match probably won't be half bad. The Cowboys, on their second consecutive road trip, will have a point to prove and the Titans are coming off victories over Canterbury and Newcastle. An impressive turnaround for Cartwright and co but not enough to stop the Cowboys. A great battle up front with rep forwards scattered all over your team sheet and willing to rip in. 

My tip: North Queensland 24-14




Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers 

Saturday night from our nation's capital and for the one or two who’ve read the odd match preview in this column, you'll know about my fascination with the weather in Canberra. Just can't keep myself from mentioning the bitterly cold evenings. Can't stop talking about frosty conditions. Refuse to consider other factors. It's like no footy team has ever warmed up before kick off!! Well - the dribble ends here. This far and no further.

Sans Gareth Ellis, this is the Tigers best forward pack and one that will challenge the Raiders own size and speed. Speaking of size and speed, anyone who saw the Origin under 20s match earlier this year will recognise Canberra winger and debutant, Edrick Lee. This young Maroon stands tall and looms large. Keep an eye on Lee - he should be lining up on the Raiders left side against Matt Utai. If the Raiders can control posession, they could stop the Tigers winning streak.

My tip: Raiders 24-22




Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs 

A classic matchup and one of the few Sydney rivalries left to celebrate. Souths and Canterbury have met 143 times and never have the people of Punchbowl hated the rowdies from Redfern more. Souths are a consistent and genuine threat and gone are the days when Canterbury were dominating this fixture to a point of embarrassment. Michael Maguire has introduced a level of pride and consistency none expected so quickly.

Last time out, Souths were able to exploit the advantage they gained from good field position to attack through the air and come up with enough points to cover the 'Dogs quite easily. This time round, hard to expect the 'home' side will blow as many opportunities as they did back in round 6. Josh Morris should dominate his matchup against Matt King and the Bulldogs roll from there. Should be a beauty.

My tip: Canterbury 18-16




New Zealand Warriors v The Melbourne Storm 

A masterpiece from Mt Smart Stadium on Sunday afternoon and your match of the round. Credit must go to Warriors coach Brian McClennan for turning a bad start to the season around where his team is now just outside the top 8, but more importantly he has blooded some super talent. Konrad Hurrell and Ben Henry continue to impress and have complimented the more experienced Warriors with aplomb. 

However, if we are talking about coaches, we must make mention of McClennan's counterpart for this match. The seething, spitting, simmering, smouldering psychopath that is Craig Bellamy. He will have the Storm well-prepared for the toughest road trip in the NRL and more so, will come away with the two points. Cooper Cronk teaches Shaun Johnson and former understudy James Maloney a few lessons as the Storm pull away late. 

My tip: Melbourne 25-12




Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights 

The once mighty Broncos have not won a game since their dream run of Friday night matches came to an end. Heralded as bigger, stronger and quicker than everyone in the NRL earlier this year, they now face a fourth straight loss after winning 6 in a row. Perhaps the sudden change in scheduling has affected them... or perhaps it hasn’t; but either way they had their hats handed to them last week in Melbourne and will be out for redemption. 

The Knights, meanwhile, have their own 3 game losing streak to worry about. They too, were lauded as bigger, stronger and quicker.... hang on... I’m confusing that with richer and richer and richer. Newcastle may have to wait for their rags to turn to riches as season 2012 slowly slips away. It keeps slipping at Suncorp on Sunday afternoon as the Broncos rally behind Ben Hannant, Peter Wallace and Jack Reed. Mock the Ginger at your peril. 

My tip: Brisbane 24-12




Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sharks 

The Eels are 1 and 10; their coach has apparently 'lost' the dressing room; morale in tatters; heartbreak against the Dragons last week. On top off all of this... the Blue and Gold army now have to deal with Ben Roberts making his return to first grade. Wouldn't wanna be a Parramatta fan right now. They have some great young talent but nobody to lead them and Monday night presents a huge challenge for this struggling club.

The Sharks, meanwhile, welcome back their origin players, welcome back their coach from his intestinal issues and will finish off your round 13 fixtures with a win. The Bukuya, Smith, Gallen back row will get things rolling early and then it’s over to Jeff Robson to rip apart his old club with the able assistance of Todd Carney. The visitors get out to a good lead and their defence, ranked 3rd best in the NRL, does the rest. 

My tip: Cronulla 26-10



for live updates throughout the weekend, go to http://leagueunlimited.com/

Paully's Picks - Round 12

The Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

Match of the Round. 1 v 2 on the ladder and no coincidence that these powerhouse clubs own the two best defensive records in the competition. Can the city of Melbourne handle another blockbuster Rugby League fixture in the same week? No. Those miserable bunch of 'bleak city' dwellers couldn’t appreciate a blockbuster if it busted them in the block. Not too sure what that means but I’m sure you've followed the way I’ve drifted.

Scheduling issues might have had this game played on the Sunday rather than making the rep players back up two days after origin, but we did have a rest weekend for the test match only a few weeks ago so expect the best from the Broncos backups and expect even better from the Storm as they bounce back from their first loss of the season. The visitors give it a good shake but may miss their starters when under pressure. Storm in a close one.

My tip: Melbourne 14-12

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canberra Raiders

So, perhaps it’s time to discuss the 'drinking culture' in our nation's capital? Perhaps, if any of the league media from Sydney could ever travel down there, they might find out. Alas, they only hover around the Eastern Suburbs to report any alcohol related incidents and for so long, it seems the Green Machine have been enjoying themselves discreetly. Not anymore. Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan stood down from this match against the Bunnies and ruling out any chance of an upset.

Having said that, Souths would have deserved to be $1.30 favourites at any rate. They have demanded the NRL's attention. They start strong; Hit hard; Getting troops back; and of course Greg Inglis. They've literally and figuratively lost their collective baby fat. This maturity was never more evident than last week when the Rabbitohs became the first team since Round 14 last year to leave Jubilee Oval with two points. Speaking of which, they notch up another 2 here.

My tip: South Sydney 30-12

Newcastle Knights v Gold Coast Titans

This match from Hunter Stadium on Saturday afternoon may not be the highlight of your round 12 fixtures, but will definitely be worth watching. Kade Snowden and Luke Douglas face each other after spending many years in the Shire together; perhaps they might share a common sadness after seeing the success of their former teammates and the realisation that they were never worth more than 300k. Or, perhaps not.

Just to keep the interest peaking, Willie Mason re acquaints himself with former Bulldogs and Roosters teammate Nate Myles and let’s not forget old friends Jamal Idris and Timana Tahu going head to head in the centres. Should be interesting. Personal rivalries aside, the better team wins here with Danny Buderus returning from injury and Jarrod Mullen steering the struggling Knights attack well enough to get the job done.

My tip: Newcastle 20-18

St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels

Two of the most famous clubs in the NRL; One of Sydney's best rivalries; They've played some of the most memorable matches in recent history; the most passionate fans; All going up in smoke... or down in flames, depending how you look at things. Whatever your perspective, the Dragons have lost their past 3 including a couple of 1 point heartbreakers and the Eels... well... there isn't much left to be said about Parramatta's 2012 tilt.

So, with both clubs out of form and outside the 8, desperation will be key at Jubilee Oval on Saturday night. If the Eels get off to a good start behind some momentum from Tim Mannah and Justin Poore, anything is possible with the likes of Sandow and Hayne able to play well for 10 or 15 minutes at a time. What's more probable though, is that the Dragons refuse to lose 4 in a row and defend their line with pride. Brett Morris and Mitch Rein the standouts.

My tip: St George Illawarra 18-6

Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles

The round 6 meeting between these clubs had Manly bust a 3 game losing streak by beating the Panthers 30-0. It also started a horror stretch of big losses for the mountain men, a painful slump they are only just recovering from. It's been a very difficult year for Ivan Cleary at Penrith and it won’t get any easier on Sunday afternoon when the reigning premiers look to win their 4th straight against the home side and 5th straight overall.

The Panthers scraped home a fortnight ago against Saints and came within a whisker of winning at Dairy Farmers last week. However, any confidence gained from these performances could be very easily crushed by a Sea Eagles team with, barring origin injuries, will have their starting forward pack together for only the 2nd time this season. Danger signs for he Panthers if the visitors make it safely from the Northern Beaches to Penrith with their luggage still on the bus.

My tip: Manly 34-14

Wests Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys

Sydney's west comes alive on Sunday afternoon as the Tigers host the Cowboys from Campbelltown, just as the Penrith faithful are biting into their hot dogs only a short drive away. This will be a beauty. Tim Sheens' patient approach in front of relentless questioning about the shortcomings of his players is justified, again. The Tigers are winners of their past 4 matches and have broken into the top 8. You don’t win premierships in March.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are on a roll of their own in winning their last 3 and owning the 2nd best attacking record in the competition. They will take some stopping from a Wests club that has enjoyed, dare we say, a 'soft' month of fixtures in beating the bottom teams before last week but confidence would be sky high. Tamou and Scott v Aaron Woods and Keith Galloway will be a highlight but Thurston shines brighter than the lot.

My tip: North Queensland 28-20

Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs

The Roosters v Dogs fixture from Moore Park finishes off 4 matches held in Sydney in 3 days. Magnificent. What better way to celebrate the rich history that is NSW Rugby League than by finishing work on Monday and rather than struggling through the horrible commute back home, make the trek to Rugby League headquarters at the Sydney Football Stadium to enjoy the 159th meeting between these two clubs.

Perhaps start with a refreshing beverage at the KB hotel on Foveaux; then you'd be silly not to pop into the Forresters for a breather; then, Roosters fans would turn right at Crown St to enjoy the Surry Hills leg of the journey but real footy fans will continue on to The Cricketers Arms, followed by your rendezvous point inside the Captain Cook. Rugby League tradition at its finest and kick off will find you ready for a beauty.

My tip: Roosters 22-14


for live updates throughout the weekend, go to leagueunlimited.com

State of Origin 2012 - Game 1 Preview

New South Wales v Queensland - Game 1

Contrary to Origins past, things had been rather quiet in the lead up to this year's series. Finally, over the weekend, we read that Aku Uate is claiming to be part of the better backline; James Tamou won't hesitate to 'bash' Cowboys teammate Jonathan Thurston... and just before you think it's finished there, Greg Dowling has chimed in to question the toughness of the Maroon forwards... hang on: that hasn't actually happened this year; Dowling must be asleep somewhere. One can only hope.

As always with our annual interstate battle, all the talk will fade away and tensions will reach fever pitch before kick-off when ultimately, the players decide what happens next. Over the past 6 years, Cameron Smith and Darren Lockyer have decided exactly that and found little resistance from the Blues. Now, Smith and Thurston will assume control of the greatest collection of Rugby League weapons in the history of Origin as Game 1 of the 2012 series kicks off Wednesday Night from Etihad Stadium in Melbourne.

New South Wales have selected a number of debutants mixed with some familiar faces and, as always, they hope that NRL form will convert to Origin form. The Blues will need a masterful kicking game from Mitchell Pearce to take momentum away from the Queensland forwards who will be aiming at the likes of Carney and Farah in the Blues defensive line. Getting quick play-the-balls will be key for this huge pack. A bigger danger for the Blues will be when interchange forwards Merrin, Buhrer and Williams are charged with stopping the onslaught.

This is where the underdogs will find the going tough. Mobility will give them an edge but they could struggle to maintain that advantage for the 80 minutes and Queensland are trained to strike when opportunity presents itself.  The unlimited ability of their spine, the size and speed of their engine room, the confidence and cohesion of familiar faces, you just can't help but hate their guts. (did I say that out loud?). The Maroons are $1.45 favourites and it will take a mammoth performance from the Blues to turn the tide.

My tip: Never been able to physically tip the Cane Toads and I won't be starting now.
Man of the Match: Billy Slater