Paully's Picks - Round 11

Wests Tigers v New Zealand Warriors

Friday night footy from Leichardt Oval opens round 11 of the premiership as the Tigers play host to the Warriors. Like any good host, the Tigers will welcome their visitors with a cold glass of mistakes, an entree of flimsy defence, a main course of poor fifth tackle options and then present a warm glass of disappointment to the Wests faithful. Not a forgiving bunch in Tiger town and we predict some angry pedestrians navigating the back streets at full time.

The Warriors are hitting form. Led by a ferocious forward back, they have dispatched the Broncos, Bunnies and Roosters in recent weeks and whilst all these victories came at Mt Smart Stadium, the New Zealand big men will find little resistance from the Tigers engine room. Benji catches a glimpse of his past when Shaun Johnson enjoys plenty of space in this one as the visitors bust open the opposition defence early and often. Warriors too big and too strong.

My tip: Warriors 30-12



North Queensland Cowboys v Penrith Panthers

A Saturday night arm-wrestle from Dairy Farmers Stadium. Without Jonathan Thurston in the line up, the Cowboys have been able to win a few games in recent years but it's never been pretty. The Panthers, meanwhile, have had their own image problems this season. In attack they average a paltry 14 points a game and have not scored more than this since beating the Eels almost 2 months ago. It might be slow going for the scoreboard attendant. 

What won't be slow going will be the Cowboys forwards. Tariq Sims will be ignited by his omission from the Origin squad and his brother Ashton will follow suit. The visitors will not be able to handle this and once Aaron Payne and Ray Thompson get enough momentum and field position, it should be lights out for the Panthers. Tune in to enjoy the one and only Travis Burns as he loads up in the sledging department against his former teammates; always good fun.

My tip: Cowboys 24-10



Manly Sea Eagles v Sydney Roosters 

A Daniel Mortimer sighting! The once heralded member of one of codes famous families, Mortimer quickly disappeared from the spotlight after the Eels 2009 Grand Final appearance. He became a young journeyman through the lower grades to now resurface as a Rooster and gets his chance in first grade this Sunday at Brookvale Oval as Mitchell Pearce's understudy. This is will be a big challenge but one that Daniel will meet, and master. 

The Roosters are uncovering a new star every weekend. The likes of Cordner, Guerra, Moga and Arona not only sound like a collection of classic cars, they play with just as much power. Upset of the week for mine as the boys from Bondi continue their good form and deliver the Eagles their 2nd loss in 4 games at home. With DCE, SKD and JWH all on show, it will be a beauty but we predict a TKO for the Roosters as they POQ with the two points.

My tip: Roosters 20-18



St George Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs.

South Sydney fans will quickly realise on Sunday afternoon why half of their salary cap goes to Greg Inglis. A phenomenal footballer who is so good that he is not even playing in this game and I can't help but dedicate an entire paragraph to his awesomeness. Allow me to continue to this self fulfilling prophecy by writing one more line about the man they call GI. Souths will lose about 250 metres of field position without him. Thank you.

Just quietly, a horrible scheduling error by the NRL. Saints v Souths should be a highlight of the season and should typify all that is good about the traditions of Sydney rivalries. Alas, it is jammed into the weekend before Origin and as you may have read - we are missing some big names. Jamie Soward returns for the Dragons and if their attack can find any sort of rhythm, they should make it 4 from 4 at WIN Jubilee. They will.

My tip: Dragons 19-12



Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Cronulla Sharks 

Rumours circling about the return of Trent Hodkinson for this match and it could not come at a better time for the Bulldogs. They've come off a difficult month with losses to Manly and Melbourne and then suddenly looked exhausted against the Titans last week. A disappointing 1 win from their last 5 and Hodkinson could be the key to igniting an attack that is averaging only 11 points a match over this period. Needless to say, we don't count the Eels match. 

The Sharks are elite. Playing a disciplined but exciting brand of football that has them sitting third on the ladder and coming fresh off a victory against The Melbourne Storm. The obvious question here is whether the visitors can win without Gallen and Carney. The Answer is no. 'Dogs take advantage of 10 days rest and come out firing to get their season back on track. League fans will find it tough to focus on this match with Origin only two days away and the senses tingling with anticipation.  

My tip: Canterbury 16-14

Paully's Picks - Round 10

Brisbane Broncos v Manly Sea Eagles 

Round 10 kicks off on Friday night with the annual Suncorp Stadium double header. The brainchild of Bulldogs CEO Todd Greenberg, this event has become a festival of Queensland Rugby League and a highlight of the NRL calendar. Game 1 has the Broncos hosting the Eagles in a match between two of the competition heavyweights. With both clubs set to lose troops to origin in the coming weeks, the two premiership points become even more vital.

Injuries to key playmakers Peter Wallace and Kieran Foran take some of the shine away from this game, turning into a defensive struggle but one that will still entertain. With noted nigglers Sam Thaiday, Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough all enjoying an origin entree before the main course begins in a fortnight. Brisbane refuse to lose two in a row but it will be a close one with the home side holding on in the end.

My tip: Brisbane 16-14



Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Gold Coast Titans

Part 2 of your Friday night double header has the Bulldogs taking their home game to Suncorp to face the Titans. Canterbury would be on an emotional high after destroying their hated rivals last week and even more-so, since their attack has been played into form by the helpless Eels. The ‘Dogs had failed to score more than 10 points for a month but erupted for 46 last Friday night including that 1st half explosion with 3 tries in 5 minutes.

The Titans will not fold so quickly. They play with pride every week, for 80 minutes, no exceptions. An agonising loss to the Tigers last week would have left a horrible taste in their mouths and getting up for this game will be another huge challenge for this struggling football team. They meet this challenge in the opening 40 minutes but the class of the opposition will prove too much, just as it did 5 weeks ago when these clubs met. Pritchard and Barba the difference.

My tip: Canterbury 24-18



New Zealand Warriors v Sydney Roosters 

A couple of footy teams playing with wisdom beyond their years. The Warriors have been patient; reversing a bad run of form to now look more like the Grand Finalists of last season. The Roosters, meanwhile, have played like a cagey old veteran in 2012. Winning games ugly in the opening rounds and last week bouncing back from a heartbreaking ANZAC Day loss to destroy the Knights. Both clubs showing toughness while not showing their cards too early. 

So, the scene set for Saturday night at Mt Smart Stadium in Auckland and what a beauty it will be. A bunch of Roosters playing on their native soil, two of the hardest hitting forward packs in the competition, a couple of superstar halfbacks and the visitors with an 8.5 start. Match of the Round for mine and in big games like this, tough to tip against the home side. Warriors finish stronger behind the play of Mateo and Maloney. 

My tip: New Zealand 21-20



Newcastle Knights v North Queensland Cowboys 

Alarm bells for Newcastle after last week's performance against the Roosters. Why? The Knights have followed a win/lose form line all season and have struggled with their attack a times... but last week, for the first time, they were treated with complete disdain by the opposition. The big men from Bondi were simply not scared - and at times hardly even concerned with Wayne Bennett's forward pack. 

So, without emotional leaders Kurt Gidley and Danny Buderus on the park, where do the Knights get their motivation to toughen the hell up before Saturday night's home match against the visiting Cowboys? Nowhere. If the Novocastrians thought Kennedy and Waerea-Hargreaves were a handful, best prepare themselves for a dose of M. Scott, J. Tamou and young Sims. If the visitors are fair dinkum, they roll right over the home side and win well. 

My tip: North Queensland 30-14



Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels

Can it get any worse for the Parramatta Eels? Can it possibly get any worse for Nathan Hindmarsh? We've seen losing streaks before and we've seen teams in poor form, but this week, the Eels stood up in front of their members and suffered the humiliation of essentially having their pants pulled down in public. Men and women from the mean streets of Parramatta looking Stephen Kearney and the Eels square in the eye and telling them how to win games... Almost hilarious.

Almost.... it would be funny if Hindmarsh was not involved. Rather than a parade or pat on the back, or even a premiership chance, this superstar and Eels legend is forced to finish his career with a group of players not fit to tie his shoes. So, just when things are looking their worst, the Eels travel to our nation's capital on Sunday to freeze their backsides off against a team with a chip on its shoulder after being hard done-by at Brookvale last week. One wonders if these Eels 'fans' with travel with them.

My tip: Canberra 30-18



Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v The Melbourne Storm

1 v 3 on the ladder but 1 v 16 in your hearts. Sydney league fans will see this as a David and Goliath matchup and just to add to the flavour, no team is more hated outside of Manly than the Melbourne Storm. The Sharks are making friends and fans by climbing out of the cellar, playing entertaining footy and winning games against the bigger clubs. No better story than a rags to riches one and Paul Gallen and his men are certainly not rags any more.

This is their biggest challenge. The Melbourne Storm coming to Toyota Stadium with a flawless record and an aura of invincibility. Cameron Smith v Isaac DeGois, Cooper Cronk v Jeff Robson, Billy Slater v Matt Wright.... sounds like a mis-match doesn’t it? Indeed, it does, but on Sunday afternoon in the Shire, reputations will not matter. What will matter most is the Storm's defence. Todd Carney won't be able to break it down and that will be the difference in a cracker. 

My tip: Melbourne 14-8
 



Penrith Panthers v St George Illawarra Dragons

In the first season of challenges put forward from other codes in the battle of Sydney's West, the invaders from the south would be finding the going quite easy right now. The Eels, Panthers and Tigers wouldn't be attracting the swinging voters at this stage of the season and the future does not look bright. The Panthers in particular have been plagued by injury and are losers of their last 5 to be 2nd last on the ladder. 

Can they turn things around? Sure, but not this week. The Dragons travel to the foot of the mountains on Monday night after getting smacked by the Cowboys and they won't be interested in losing two in a row. The Hornby/Soward combination responds to last week's shellacking with a clinical display to get on top of the brave but out-gunned Panthers. Soward in particular will be keen to play well after being ignored for origin duties.

My tip: St George Illawarra 24-12



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Paully's Picks - Round 9

North Queensland Cowboys v St George Illawarra Dragons 

To kick off a tremendous Friday night double header, the Dragons head up to Townsville in search of their 3rd consecutive victory and 6th overall for the season. The Cowboys, by contrast, can score 50 points one week and let in 40 the next; they can fall behind by 20 in one half, and not allow a single point the next. If you think this sounds like the resume of a schizophrenic football team, you'd be right; but the question still remains; have the cowboys taken their medication this week? 

They have. The class of their opponents will bring the best out of the home side on a balmy Friday night in the tropical north. After being blown off the park last week against South Sydney, the Cowboys will use home ground advantage as a springboard to stun the Dragons in the opening exchanges behind a rejuvenated and healthy forward pack. A let down game for Saints after their ANZAC Day miracle. Weyman v Tamou upfront will be an absolute highlight.

My tip: North Queensland 22-12



Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs

Must give credit to Eels coach Stephen Kearney. It seems he has subscribed to a theory of showing as much faith as he possibly can in his players without losing his mind. He's decided to retain a forward pack that gets over-run every week, a fullback who has never been known for his defence, a five eighth who may or may not actually play rugby league for a living, we are not sure... and finally his halfback who is back from reserve grade this week. 

So, a test for Kearney and his men comes in the form of the greatest Sydney rivalry in the NRL as the Bulldogs play the Eels at ANZ on Friday night. The Eels can either reward their coach and their fans with a good performance...or suffer further shame. Most likely the Bulldogs will pick a weak point and exploit it, perhaps Ben Roberts' left and right shoulder defence, or perhaps Jarryd Hayne as the 'last line of defence'. Either way, the 'Dogs win and win well. 

My tip: Canterbury 40-14 



New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos 

One thing that stands out about this game is seeing the Broncos at $1.70 during the week. Almost choked on my corn flakes. Whilst the Warriors are formidable at home, this is the same Brisbane team that are winners of 6 in a row, have allowed an average of 12 points in defence for the season, have an all-star line up and a perfect mix of youth and experience. However, just before I book a hotel room for me and the Broncos... New Zealand will not roll over. 

Their youthful centre combination of Ben Henry and Konrad Hurrell will be a great foil for Justin Hodges and Jack Reed and considering both clubs enjoy the expansive game, the result of these battles will be pivotal. In the end though, the battle will be won by the visitors as they outlast a committed but out-gunned home side. Corey Norman the standout as he continues to impress after following in the footsteps of an immortal. Not a bad effort. 

My tip: Brisbane 30-14



Gold Coast Titans v Wests Tigers 

The unhappiest of finishes soured the Tigers victory against the Eels last week and if not for those unbelievable scenes at Parramatta stadium last Sunday afternoon, the Tigers may have kept a clean sheet in consecutive weeks. Critics would have suddenly faded away; fans would have started to believe again, premiership odds may have thinned even more. But alas, that 15 minute massacre DID happen; it was no nightmare. 

Speaking of nightmares, the Titans season continues to look, taste and sound like a journey towards another wooden spoon. For the second year in a row, John Cartwright's men have lost 6 of their first 8 matches and to make matters worse, have now lost their halfback for this Saturday night’s spectacular at Skilled Park. The talk of Robbie Farah's origin chances will have him ready for this one and if he and Benji are switched on, it could get ugly. 

My tip: Tigers 30-10



Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm 

One can't help but feel like we should refer to this powerhouse club from south of the border as 'THE Melbourne Storm'. They are one of a kind. Undefeated on the season and leaders in just about every statistical category known to man. Actually, that's not true... I didn't do the research to back that statement up so let's just say the Panthers are in trouble, whether you look at the stats or not. I'm rambling. 

What better time for Ivan Cleary, Phil Gould and the merry band of footballers known as the Penrith Panthers to run into The Melbourne Storm... Saturday night at Centrebet Stadium will be the biggest test of Cleary's short tenure at the club so far. Although he was the architect of a plan that ended Melbourne's season last year, he can only pray not to be eviscerated by the visitors this time round. Fingers crossed the faithful Panthers fans get out of this alive. 

My tip: The Melbourne Storm 42-0 



Manly Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders 

This young Raiders team still looks good on paper but after losing their leader for the season, the pressure put on a spine of Waddell, Williams, McCrone and Dugan could be too much to handle for these kids over the course of a long and demanding NRL schedule. In fact, it could be too much to handle over the course of 80 minutes at Fortress Brookvale as the Raiders travel to face Manly this Sunday afternoon. 

After a successful return from injury for the brothers Stewart last week in a big win against the Bulldogs, Manly will be looking to win consecutive matches for the first time since rounds 1 and 2. They'll also be looking to reward the Northern Beaches faithful after losing to the Titans in their last appearance at home. So, a long bus trip for the Raiders ends in misery, as most bus trips to the insular peninsula usually do. 

My tip: Manly 34-22 



Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights

This fixture always seems to entertain. The rich rugby league history of the Hunter produces footballers rather than athletes... and the powerbrokers from Bondi know how to buy the best, they always have. So, history repeats itself at Allianz Stadium on Sunday afternoon in your match of the round and what a beauty it will be. Not only do we have two teams chock full of talent, but we have Brian Smith up against his nemesis, Wayne Bennett. 

A showcase of new age footballers and the type of league players sought after by all recruiters: big, strong and built low to the ground. Prototypes made for wrestling. The oversized 3 quarter lines for both clubs will add to the grind with Tahu, Leilua, Uate and Tagive all playing major roles to assist their respective engine rooms. If the forward battle doesn't knock your socks off, these gentlemen certainly will. Knights defence gets them home even without Gidley and Buderus.  

My tip: Newcastle 18-14 



South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks 

Monday Night Football from Homebush. Souths fans will be out in numbers for this home game after the Bunnies have won 3 from their past 4 including big wins over long time rivals the Tigers and Bulldogs. So too, Cronulla fans will be joyously making the trip out of the Shire with their tails up, hoping to see their club nail its 7th straight victory. So, with a big crowd on hand, ANZ Stadium should look positively vacuous. 

Atmosphere aside, this will be a beauty. Souths keep finding a way to get it done and will test the Sharks all the way to the final siren, but Paul Gallen and co will prove too much. The Sharks defence has been impressive and their attack looked almost deadly against the Raiders last week. Jeff Robson's combination with Todd Carney will again get the biscuits for Cronulla and the streak continues. Carney in particular the difference again.  

My tip: Cronulla 14-10