Thursday, June 17, 2010

Paully's Picks - Round 15

Brisbane v Penrith

First leg of a double header in the annual footy extravaganza at Suncorp Stadium. How fitting that a football festival kicks off with two attacking teams who are not afraid to throw the ball around. The Broncos are dangerous with more players returning from injury each week and their youngsters getting used to 1st grade in a hurry. Penrith have a similar crop of youth beginning to flower and their results speak for themselves.

So, who will do all the talking on Friday night? Hard to go past the Broncos on a 5 game winning streak where they have only allowed an average of 12 points in defence. Impressive. The Panthers will miss the 'small man syndrome' anger of Travis Burns and the inspirational leadership of Petero Civoneceva. Look for another big match from the Broncos’ star back rowers as they take on 3 of the best in Panthers trio Waterhouse, Pritchard and Lewis. A mighty affair.

Man of the Match Prediction: Peter Wallace
Tip: Brisbane 26-20
Result: Penrith 22-12
Man of the Match: Lachlan Coote
Snap Review:
Penrith worked hard with their discipline and the results showed. Good hit up metres, good kick chase, good defence. I can't believe Michael Gordon is not signed for next year. Penrith showed they can win without Petero. Also, welcome back Wade Graham. On the nose with Matt Elliott earlier and now coming back from injury, Graham is talented and lets hope he is nurtured.

Canterbury v Gold Coast

The dogs are not enjoying their footy lately. Their traditionally strong defence has lost its aura and their attack is averaging 11 points per game over the past 5 matches. Their chances of turning it around against a resurgent Titans squad look slim to say the least. Greg Bird looks a might better with the return of Mat Rogers and they will work the Bulldogs right sight defence mercilessly in this match. Bird will be a handful, as will Scott Prince as he conjures a magical kicking game to punish the 'home' side for 80 minutes.

The one roadblock awaiting Bird and Rogers will be one Jamal Idris. This battle will be a highlight but there won't be much else to bark about for the boys from Belmore as they struggle to keep pace with the Titans. The mobility of Laffranchi and his back row partners prove too sharp for the dog’s forwards who have been stale in attack. Prince and Preston Campbell could have a field day.

Man of the Match Prediction: Preston Campbell
Tip: Titans 32-12
Result: Titans 25-24
Man of the Match: Mark Minichiello
Snap Review:
If Scott Prince stayed on the field the result could have easily been an embarrassment for the Dogs. Ahead 18-6 early, the Titans lost their way when Prince's hamstring gave up on him but did enough to keep the fast finishing Bulldogs at bay. Barba took advantage of a tiring defence and looked fantastic with the ball - all too late though.

Melbourne v North Queensland

Return leg of a round 8 match won by the Storm 34-6. Difficult to see a different outcome to this one. Jonathan Thurston looks tired when not playing for QLD and the Cowboys seem to have internal problems resulting in a horrible record and rumours of coach/player infighting beginning to surface. The Storm, on the other hand, will enjoy playing with a full squad and seem to enjoy playing footy for the fun of it.

More fun in store for viewers of this match as Cameron Smith renews combinations with Cronk, Slater and friends to rough up the visitors and probably rough up JT in the process. Greg Inglis, if given enough space, could have his way with you centre Will Tupou in a definite mismatch. Keep an eye on front rowers Brett White and Matt Scott as they face each other for the second time this week. Could be fun.

Man of the Match Prediction: Billy Slater
Tip: Melbourne 22-10
Result: Melbourne 58-12
Man of the Match: Brett Finch
Snap Review:
And why not Finch? Brett played magnificently in this match. It's like the Storm had complete disdain and disrespect for the Cowboys defence. They were bursting through the line at will. Watching Brett Finch 'toe-poke' a conversion between the posts could have been the funniest thing i've seen on the footy field for ages. Thanks Finchy for bringing the fun back into footy.

Manly v South Sydney

Great to see both teams with a full compliment heading into this match. Two clubs that have impressed so far this season and let’s hope this old rivalry lives up to it's 124 match history. Fantastic. The bunnies put in one of their worst performances of the season against Manly in round 8 this year and will be keen to atone for this. Before any revenge is considered, Souths must remember that they are heading to Brookvale Oval where Eagles fans will be baying for blood.

The folks from the north side don't care much for the boys from Redfern and will be happy to voice this hatred at every opportunity. Manly's forwards will heed the call and respond in kind. With the visitors forwards is such good form this year, we might see fireworks. Match of the round for mine as both clubs hit hard but home ground advantage carries Manly over the line. Hodkinson and Foran rebound from some recent struggles to get Manly back on track.

Man of the Match Prediction: Jamie Lyon
Tip: Manly 22-20
Result: Manly 26-25
Man of the Match: Glenn Stewart
Snap Review:
Cracking game at brooky. Manly seem to be improving every week. Watching them earlier this year, you wouldnt think they'd be making big comebacks like this. Trent Hodkinson with ice in his veins. Isaac Luke had another blinder and the Souths pack will be brilliant next year when they have spent more time together. How good is Ben Lowe?

Cronulla v St George Illawarra

"We are predicting plenty of 'niggle' in this game. The Sharks will be revved up to the eyeballs by Ricky Stuart and hoping to cause a massive upset in this local derby".
This is how we previewed the last match played between these clubs in round 8 this year. The Dragons won 38-0 without a punch thrown in anger. Very disappointing.

This time round, I implore Ricky Stuart to invoke the ghosts of Les Davidson, the Sorensen family and of-course Dan Stains to re-ignite this war of neighbours in the hope that the 2010 rivalry does not end with a whimper. Unfortunately Ricky looks like being out-coached again by Wayne Bennett as the Dragons defence will dominate and eventually this will reflect on the scoreboard. Saints to run away late.

Man of the Match Prediction: Darius Boyd
Tip: Dragons 30-10
Result: Dragons 22-4
Man of the Match: Ben Creagh
Snap Review:
Creagh does deserve this, but the Saints defence was outstanding. Simply hunting and scrambling as a pack with no mistakes and a relentless amount of energy to keep turning up. The Sharks were valiant but still need more spark in attack. Good to hear no complaints from the Cronulla camp after the Gallen 'try' was not awarded. I dont think it would have mattered.


Wests Tigers v Canberra

This Tigers team looks dangerous on paper. Very dangerous. Having not played in more than two weeks and opening the official "Balmain" leg of their season at Leichardt Oval, it is difficult to convince anyone to tip the Raiders here. Except those wonderfully loyal Raiders fans who travel in droves to support their team at away games. Must be nice to flee the sub-arctic temperatures of our nation’s capital for at least a few hours.

Moving on, the Raiders have been playing with a fair share of commitment and chutzpah this year but will find it difficult to shut down the Tigers who are rolling along nicely since the return of one Robert Lui. Huge wrap on this kid and huge wrap on the Tigers defence over the past 3 matches. The continuation of this good form will see the home side win well and welcome new recruit Wade McKinnon in style. The feisty Raiders may not go quietly though - Joel Thompson v Chris Lawrence a highlight.

Man of the Match Prediction: Robert Lui
Tip: Tigers 32-16
Result: Tigers 18-8
Man of the Match: Chris Heighington
Snap Review:
We love a good defensive struggle. Notice that this is happening more often with the Tigers? Not used to that are we? Perhaps a sign that the entire club is maturing into more than just a group who like to score points. Robert Lui again outstanding but the Wests forwards get all the credit here. Shout out to the Raiders forwards also, they muscled up well.

Newcastle v Parramatta

Reputations on the line here for the Newcastle Knights. Whilst defensive liability Scott Dureau is replaced by Ben Rogers for Monday Night Football this week, the Knights problems protecting their line remain. They allow an average of 75 points per game this season (please note that 90% of statistics on this blog are made up on the spot). Jokes aside, this must be a huge concern for folks in the Hunter as they try to restore some pride against the visiting Eels.

Speaking of the Eels, they seem to be cruising through the season, waiting for the big games to arrive. They will no doubt win enough to make the finals this year and then it’s anyone's trophy. For now, I'm tipping they take the week off for this match and the Knights cause an upset. Kurt Gidley leads from the front and Adam MacDougall's matchup against Timana Tahu will be a highlight. Newcastle bolt from the gates and do enough to hold on.

Man of the Match Prediction: Akuila Uate
Tip: Newcastle 24-22
Result: Newcastle 6-4
Man of the Match: Cory Paterson
Snap Review:
Wet and soggy. I've never seen this many dropped balls in a game of footy but somehow the match was still entertaining. Probably because their was a bit of niggle at the beginning and plenty of drama at the end. No complaints from me. I enjoyed this and also enjoyed seeing Kurt Gidley boot home the match winner. Much deserved.

See our "Minute by Minute Monday Night" blog - delivered in 'retro' form on Tuesday. For live updates go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

State of Origin 2 - Preview

Can it get any worse for NSW fans? Of course it can, we still have a game to play.

Off the field, I can't recall a more damaging pre game incident than what the Blues have experienced this past week. Safe to say that NSW will either crumble, as a unit, or find a way to stick together and accomplish the improbable - beat Queensland at Suncorp to save their reputations against the most dominant force in origin history. This dominant force will be enjoying the relative silence of a the past 10 days compared to origins past where all and sundry have been talking about violence. Seems the media finally have something else to write about.

Come Thursday morning however, we predict they will be writing about the on-field performances. "Lockyer and Thurston too good, NSW not up to standard and the blues should have picked someone else". You can count on it. You can also count on Sam Thaiday to continue his amazing season, Cameron Smith to remind everyone how good he actually is and Queensland’s young front rowers to make a name for themselves. Speed will be the main difference - NSW will struggle with this and won't have enough of it out wide to score points, or defend against one of the best Rugby League back lines ever assembled. My head says QLD, my heart says NSW and it's bleeding profusely.

Man of the Match Prediction: Darren Lockyer says farewell to 'Lang Park' in style.
Tip: I just can't do it..... NSW 19-18.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Minute by Minute Monday Night - Round 14

Melbourne Storm v Eastern Suburbs Roosters. AAMI Stadium. June 14, 2010.


It looks freezing in Melbourne so the Roosters should acclimatise well to this weather with all the snow we've had in Bondi lately!!!!
Jokes aside, the Roosters might struggle tonight - I only say that because I am desperate for my weekend multi to come up. My bet looks like this:

Warriors to beat Newcastle @ 2.45. Check.
Slovenia to beat Algeria by 1 goal @ 3.45. Check.
Melbourne +4.5 over the Roosters @ 1.90.
Fingers crossed for a $150 collect.

1st minute - This blog is a fan of Jake Friend. He represents the shining beacon of hope to all wayward souls that is Rugby League. Anyone can be forgiven and reborn under the warm bosom of the Greatest Game of All. Even Andrew Johns will be forgiven.

2nd minute - Storm halfback Luke Kelly's first kick aint so good. This kid is under a bit of pressure tonight.

4th minute - Kelly's opposite number tonight, Todd Carney, looks lively. As do the Roosters early.

5th minute - Storm butcher a try. My multi could have been up 8.5 - 0. Melbourne with a bit of momentum now. Two straight sets attacking the line... but they turn it over.

9th minute - Roosters have had zero field position in the early going. When they do, they will no doubt be aiming their attack at inexperienced combinations in the Storm defensive line.

13th minute - Luke Kelly's second kick is a beauty. 40/20. Nice work from the youngster but Melbourne fails to capitalise after throwing the ball around for 3 tackles to no effect.

15th minute - The Mad Pup knocks on to give the Roosters their first chance to attack in the oppositions 20.

18th minute - Luke Kelly shows his youth. Mose Masoe - a giant of a man playing in the front row tonight - runs right at him and scores easily. Roosters 6-0. My multi, at this point, is still OK.

20th minute - actually my multi looks better than OK. The Roosters cough it up on the first set after their try, a horrible error for coaches to see. Storm give it right back through Aidan Tolman error.

23rd minute - Roosters showing willingness to throw it around already. Tremendous work here as they attack up the left edge and Phil Graham finds space, they look dangerous. Melbourne will have to work hard tonight, harder than usual to secure a win. They might be able to defend well but at this stage do not have enough enterprise to score points. My multi now looks a bit shaky.

26th minute - Fantastic try to Phil Graham. Frank Paul offload started it and the backs finished it. They spread it well to find the overlap from inside their own half. Roosters looking the better side so far. They lead 12-0.

Thought - Doesn’t the rep calender really destroy games like this? I am enjoying watching this one but one cannot help but wonder what might have been. The Roosters have turned up. If only they turned up against a full strength Storm outfit. The more big games played, the more people will come to see your product. The NRL need to find a better way to schedule their season. I have an idea just like everyone else. More to come on this in the coming weeks.

29th minute - The Roosters follow up set of six is a beauty. It looked almost Tigers-like at their best. They go 100m in six tackles as Braith Anasta puts in a perfect kick for Shaun Kenny Dowall to score. Video ref says not try. SKD pushing Storm player illegally to get to the ball.

Must be said at this stage the Roosters are all over them. Minichiello looking good at fullback.

33rd minute - The Bondi boys are really keeping it alive and playing a very entertaining brand. Joseph Leilua throws a beautiful inside ball to get the Roosters within striking distance and this is followed up by rubbish penalty to put the Storm under even more pressure. Going down 18-0 just before halftime would be disastrous for this young side. They hold out though; still 12-0 Roosters.

Thought - Have not seen much of Todd Carney at this point. Jake Friend and Braith Anasta a lot of the kicking. Anasta controlling most of the attack on both sides of the ruck. The Roosters doing well without too much responsibility placed on Carney. A good sign considering how badly they have looked in attack without Mitchell Pearce this year.

36th minute - Sam Perrett makes an easy line break from a simple hit up and finds a streaking Kane Linnett on debut who goes in under the posts. Roosters 18-0.
Kane Linnett? I'm guessing he is either a Souths junior or a Queenslander…
(Upon checking the next day I find that Kane is a Dragons junior from Port Kembla – I am wrong again - I also find that his footy hero is Justin Hodges. I just vomited in my mouth a little bit)

39th minute - Roosters cough it up again after scoring. It does not seem to matter tonight though. My multi has one foot on the grave and the other foot has tinea.

40th minute - Storm a chance before halftime. Hinchcliffe goes over from dummy half but the video ref says no try. My multi is on life support.

Halftime - Roosters 18-0.

During intermission - I go on a Macca's run. As with every Macca's, it’s not far from your house. In the car I'm listening to Triple Ms Monday Night league commentary. They are interviewing Brian Smith during halftime!!! Awesome. A very American approach to media access, but I like it.

Heaps of people in the drive thru line at Maccas so I might miss the start of the second half.

48th minute - Indeed. I'm back on the couch to see the Roosters attacking the Melbourne line once again but still 18-0. McChicken meal with a JB.

51st minute - Sustained pressure could be too much for the young Storm squad. The Roosters look great in attack, every ruck looks organised and every run has intent. Repeat set coming up - and another after a penalty.

51st minute - The pressure is too much again for the Storm. Todd Carney floats across field and finds Mitch Aubusson who pops a one handed ball inside to Minichiello who scores. Great pass. Roosters 24-0,

54th minute - The Roosters ensuing set goes 100 metres again and they get a repeat set. This is a butt kicking. My multi is dead as dead as dead.

56th minute - Blowout City. Horrible night for the Storm. Great kick by Anasta who has been fantastic tonight. Finds Graham perfectly on left side who scores. Roosters 28-0.

59th minute - Every Roosters set of six seems like its going 100 metres. On this occasion the visitors get a little too excited, forward pass.

Thought - further on the disintegration of my multi - I did have another one going this weekend that involved a rugby league leg and just to show you how bad my tipping is... see below;

Manly +7.5 against the Titans - they lost by 14.
Manly u/20s -6.5 against the Titans (manly coming 2nd on the ladder and the Titans coming 2nd last), Manly lost by 12.
South Korea to beat Greece - they did.

My Manly tip sucked on two levels!!!

64th minute - Storm fire up a bit after Anasta head slamming penalty. It almost looked comical, watching Anasta try to get the attacker on his back. One of the problems with wrestling techniques today, they lead to many slow play-the-balls and silly penalties. On this occasion the storm get the penalty but fail to capitalise again,. Just can’t do it without the troops.

69th minute - Melbourne finally on the scoreboard after Minichiello knock on and penalties give them repeat sets. Dummy half scoot from Rory Kostjazyn. I dont even know if I spelt this correctly and I dont care. A horrible name to type. Roosters 28-6. (Or 28 - 10.5 with my multi line included. A diabolical end to a good betting weekend)

74th minute - Super performance from Braith tonight. He has been in everything and picked out weaknesses in the Storm defence on nearly every attacking raid. Has put them in two minds every time. On this occasion, he finds Frank Paul with a lovely ball to straighten the attack and his big back rower crosses untouched. Roosters 32-6.

77th minute - For and against might play a part come semi final time. The Roosters seem very aware of this and they put on another try. Sam Perrett crosses in the corner against a helpless Melbourne defence after good lead up work from Carney. Roosters 38-6.

Fulltime - Roosters 38-6.

Next week MNF heads up the F3 as Newcastle host the Eels. There will be no Minute by Minute blog next week - but go to http://www.leagueunlimited.com/ for live broadcasts.